Details

Published on Friday, 28 August 2015 23:00

Vuelta Stage 8

Puebla de Don Fadrique to Murcia

Sat 29th Aug, 182.5kms 

After yesterdays' first high altitude finish, they spend most of today's stage descending. It should make for a very fast stage, they could be averaging over 50kmph for the first two hours as they descend towards Archena. They then have the double obstacle of the Alto de la Cresta del Gallo before a probable sprint finish.

This could be a day for the breakaway, there could be some tired legs in the peloton after the tough stage 7 the day before. It's going to be hard to get away though as the first two hours are going to be extremely fast as they descend away from the Sierra Nevada down towards Murcia.

It could be a strange stage finish - the most likely outcome is going to be a reduced group sprint finish as we are sure to lose some sprinters on the climb of the Cresta del Gallo, particularly on the second ascension when they will be going full gas. There's also the possibility that either the early break makes it all the way, or some late attacks on the final climb see some guys get away and hold off the pack on the run to the line. 

So the break made it today, just! And it was the unheralded and unknown Gert Jan Lindemann who took the honours, fighting back after being dropped a few times by Txurruka, Koshevoy and Cousin. Cousin was very unlucky, clipping wheels with a stalling Koshevoy and falling over, but I don't think he had the legs to win anyway. Their lead was massive at one point, over 14 minutes I think, and with less than 40kms to go they still had over 10 minutes, and some on Betfair got a little carried away, backing Txurruka down to as low as 1.6 in running.. that was just mental, there was thousands matched on him at odds-on with the gap tumbling. I laid 7 points at an average of 1.84, as he has let me down so many times in the past, I was sure he wasn't going to win. In the end he didn't even finish in the top 3 as he was swept up by the chasers.

The big news of the day was Froome getting dropped, but regular readers will have seen this was no surprise to me. So after being backed down to 6/4 for the overall earlier today, he is now available to back at 9/1 with PP. It was interesting to see that Sky never came to the front to do a turn and that Roche and Nieve didn't wait for Froome, they kicked on without him, so he clearly didn't have good legs today. Whether he can recover now and improve over the next week is the question, or does Sky now get fully behind Roche and Nieve and Froome has to play domestique? Aru made a move today and it was pretty impressive, but Quintana, Valverde, Chaves and Martin did enough to limit his advantage to just 7".

Valverde was indeed a poor favourite, wasn't interested in the stage today it would seem, telling his men to knock it off as they started on the climb, letting Astana take up the chase instead. And once again Rodriguez was dreadful value at 7/1. Martin was good again, and stays in 3rd, Roche also, staying in 4th. Dumoulin continues to impress though, hanging in there with the leaders, while the likes of Froome, Van Garderen and Moreno were dropped.  

Quintana is now the 7/4 favourite, he would be shorter but he has yet to show his hand. Aru was the big mover, he is now clear 2nd favourite at 3/1, is as short as 9/4, with Valverde 6/1, Chaves 16/1 and Pozzovivo is 28/1.

The Route

A strange route today - 120kms of descending right from the start of the stage as they head east away from Puebla de Don Fadrique. After 111kms they reach Archena and turn to start heading south-east towards Murcia, birthplace of Alejandro Valverde. After a flat section as they pass through Murcia for the first time, they take in the intermediate sprint after 136kms and then at the 142km mark they meet the first of the double ascensions of the Alto de la Cresta del Gallo. The Cresta del Gallo is a Cat 3 climb that rises up behind Murcia and is just 4.2kms but averages a challenging 7.5% gradient. The first kilometre averages 7%, the next kilometre is 5.3%, but the third kilometre increases in gradient sharply averaging 9.5%, hitting a max of 12%, and this is where the damage will really be done to the sprinters. 

A very quick and quite dangerous 3.5km descent takes them back on to the flat roads for 10kms before going back up and over the Cresta del Gallo once again. Once at the bottom of the descent for the second time, there's just 12kms of flat roads to the finish. The descent could be as important as the ascent, it's quite tricky and some could use it to try to get clear from the peloton.

The last 5kms are on pretty straight roads for the most part, but with 3200m to go they go through a tricky roundabout and with 2400m to go they take a sharp left turn as they meet the river. They follow the riverbank for the next kilometre before they deviate away a little bit before taking a 90 degree right-hander with 900m to go. These last 900m are almost dead straight as they cross over the bridge and on to the finishing straight which is 500m long and flat and straight. 

Contenders and Favourites

As to be expected really given the parcours, Sagan is favourite for tomorrow at 5/2 with Paddy Power, the only bookie out with prices at 9.30pm, a pretty poor showing again. The climb will get rid of most of his rivals and given that he beat most of the sprinters as it is already in the race, so he should be able to beat whatever is left in the peloton after the double ascensions of the Cresta del Gallo. Tinkoff-Saxo are sure to really push it hard on the second ascension to get rid of whoever they can, Majka is going well and he could do an effort for a while with Paulinho, Hansen and Bennatti. With only 12kms to go from the bottom it will be hard to get back on, it will be full gas to the finish. 

The question is, can his sprint rivals get over that last climb? They should be able to get over it on the penultimate ascension as they won't be going flat out you'd think, but the second time around will be a different story. John Degenkolb is the interesting one here - will he be able to get over the climb? And even if he makes it, will he have any team-mates with him? They wouldn't be the greatest team for a climb like this one. He hasn't been at his absolute best either, failing to beat Sagan and Ewan in two seperate sprints that were supposed to be his. I think he might struggle tomorrow, maybe not even get to the finish with the lead group. If that's the case, Luca Mezgec might look a big price at 100/1 as he could make it to the finish with the leaders.

Bouhanni is the same - he's only 9/1 with PP but 16s with 365, but I think he will also struggle to be there at the finish. He was way off the pace in the last sprint and I think he will not be able to stay with a charging Movistar/Tinkoff or Orica-led peloton. I'm discounting him too from my thinking. 

This is Alejandro Valverde's home town, and possibly one of the reasons he asked the boys to call off the chase today was he wanted to save them for tomorrow. He knows this finish well and could fancy it tomorrow. I think Movistar will have a plan tomorrow to really go for it and cause havoc on a stage that maybe some are not expecting. They could go really hard up the climb, and hard down the descent also in an effort to put a struggling Froome under more pressure. If they can shake off a lot of the sprinters, possibly even Sagan if they go really hard, then Valverde would have a chance in the final sprint. He opened at 25/1 with PP but they quickly cut him to just 9/1 after a few bets, probably only £10 or £20 knowing those cowards, but he is available at 14/1 with Ladbrokes and that's worth an each-way bet I think.

Caleb Ewan - can he pull off another shock? It's very different to sprinting uphill like he did for his stage win to get over the climb here - I don't think he will be able to, and the team are going to be almost fully focused on looking after Chaves and keeping him in Red. I don't think they'll be looking after Ewan and instead, maybe they could look to Simon Gerrans for this stage, he won here in 2009. He could be capable of hanging on to the coat-tails of Chaves and the GC men and would have a chance in the final sprint against a reduced bunch. He opened at 100/1 with PP and I went to back him at that, but literally within the time I added him to my betslip and went to back him, he was already cut to 50/1! Someone else had the same idea! I still think he is worth a small investment at 50s though. If Daryl Impey can get over the top with him then he has an even better chance as he will have a decent leadout man with him.

Jempy Drucker, Tosh Van der Sande and JJ Rojas could all get involved in the sprint, but there is also a chance that the break could make it on a day like today. A few names that I thought might be interested in tomorrow are Sylvain Chavanel at 25/1 with PP, Adam Hansen at 100/1 with Ladbrokes and Thomas de Gendt at 100/1 with PP. 

It's wide open again, so many possible winners here depending on what happens on the final climb. Peter Sagan does look the most likely winner, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him retire soon if he can take his second stage win of the race. I like Simon Gerrans at the price and Valverde could come close too. 

Recommendations -

2pts win on Peter Sagan at 11/4 with Bet365 

0.5pts each-way on Alejandro Valverde at 14/1 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts each-way on Simon Gerrans at 50/1 with PP

0.5pts win on Sylvain Chavanel at 25/1 with Ladbrokes

0.2pts win on Adam Hansen at 100/1 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts win on Thomas de Gendt at 100/1 with PP

Matchbets

Dumoulin to beat Moreno - 1pt at 6/5 with Bet365

Stuyven to beat Reynes  - 2pts at 8/11 with Bet365 

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