Tour Down Under - Stage 5

McLaren Vale to Willunga Hill, 151.5km

Elia Viviani saved the day somewhat by nicking 3rd on the line from Simon Gerrans, to at least land the place money on the recommended 14/1 each-way bet. It's just as well that he did or I was facing my first losing race out of five! Marcel Kittel was asleep in the peloton when OGE pushed and missed the split which saw a group of 60 go to the finish. 

Simon Gerrans did exactly as I expected him to and got his Orica Green-Edge squad to control the race, reel in breakaways and then sprint for the bonus seconds - he nabbed 5 of the six available out on the course and only missed out on another on the line as Viviani came from a mile back to shoot past about 6 riders in the last 50m to take the 3rd spot. Von Hoff was disappointing as well though, finishing back in 11th place, but on reflection, he may have been working for Haas who is battling for bonus seconds (finished 5th), so maybe that was a bad idea. 

It means though that it is very much open again and the 11/4 that was available on him to win the outright this morning was too good to ignore - the prices were still the same as yesterday even though he had closed the gap to just 7" and there are a full 19" alone available on the final stage. I can see it going right down to the wire, but it might be all over by tonight if Gerrans can win the stage and nab the 10" bonus. 

The Route

Stage 5 - McLaren Vale to Willunga Hill, 151.5km

Stage 4 is sure to play a huge part in deciding the winner of the Ochre jersey, with the two ascents, including the summit finish up Willunga Hill and only seven seconds separating Evans from Gerrans.. The course is a figure of 8 shape, where the riders do three laps of the west side part, passing by the base of Willunga as if to taunt them as to what lays in wait. The third time around though they take a sharp turn and start up the steep ascent of Willunga Hill.

It's a sharp, lung-busting climb that favours the more explosive, powerful puncheur types over the long climb grinders. I think there will be a real scrap to get to the bottom of the climb near the front and it could get quite dangerous and I wouldn't rule out a crash or two. When the action heats up though, expect Sky, BMC and OGE to drill it to try to string things out and get their men in the best place possible for the final assault. It's steepest at the bottom so it will be crucial to be in the right place.

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Contenders and Favourites

Simon Gerrans goes in to this stage knowing a victory will probably seal the race for him. Cadel Evans knows the same applies to him, or even if he finishes just behind Gerrans in 2nd or 3rd he will still be in pole position. So expect the two of them to go hammer and tongs for the victory, with Ulissi waiting in the wings. That, of course, is reflected in the betting, with Paddy Power going 9/4 on both of them with Ulissi behind them at 9/2, Betvictor go 6/4 Gerrans and 7/4 Evans, Ulissi at 3/1.

To me, if it was a match-bet choice between the two of them I would have to favour Gerrans and I think the 9/4 is a good price to take. I can see him going off closer to the 6/4 price later on, especially knowing how they manage their markets.. so I have taken 2pts win on Gerrans at 9/4. Since I started writing the article there has been money for Porte (12s in to 8s) and PP have pushed out Gerrans even more to 11/4 so I had 1pt more at that price). Depending on how Phinney goes in San Luis and if the price hasn't collapsed, I might top up more later on. 

Cadel Evans will not go down without a fight of course, but I think this climb suits Gerro more than Evans and I can see him sprinting away from him in the last 300m or so to win by a second or two. A winner on this climb last year and second the year before, Gerro has the speed and the power that is perfectly suited to its gradient. Cadel has been training a lot in the area and will know the road, but I think he could be just caught out by Gerrans, who will not let him pull a move like on Corkscrew Hill again. 

Diego Ulissi is an interesting 'outsider' again, if you could call him an outsider, as he has a superb chance too. He is similar in style and power to Gerrans and could well mug the two of them if they are watching each other too closely. There was some 8/1 available with Paddy Power for a moment, but that soon disappeared and they went 9/2.. That's a bit skinny but could well be a great 'each way bet to nothing' as they say, meaning I think he has a great chance of at least a place and may even win the stage too to land the full win and place bets. 

Outsiders? Richie Porte just doesn't look 100% tuned up to me and will have to settle for 5th to 10th place again I think, despite the money coming for him this afternoon. Gesink may spring a surprise but I don't think he has the short speed bursts for a climb like this. Francesco Gavazzi might spring a surprise, he rode well up the climb on stage 2 to Stirling, taking 4th place and could be in the mix again, he might be worth a small each-way bet at 33/1 with Paddy Power.

Recommendations:

2pts win Simon Gerrans at 9/4, 1pt win at 11/4 with Paddy Power

1pt each-way on Ulissi at 9/2 with Paddy Power

0.5pt each-way on Francesco Gavazzi with Paddy Power

2pt win on Gerrans to win the overall TDU at 11/4 with Ladbrokes