Stage 1

Unley to Lyndoch, 145kms

Tuesday 17th January 

So a good start then to the TDU with a win for 15/8 shot Caleb Ewan in the People's Choice Classic, with Peter Sagan landing the each-way at 6/1 if you took it. But what was going on with Sagan and Bennett for Bora? They made a right mess of the finish with first it looking like Sagan was the man they were leading out, then it was Bennett, but in the last 500m Bennett lost Sagan's wheel and had to fight for himself. As up front Ewan went a little early, Bennett came flying through the gaps from 8th place with 200m to go to take second ahead of his team-mate. 

It was a great performance by Ewan and the Orica team who worked hard until about 4kms to go, then took a little break as Sky and Katusha and others started battling at the front, before sweeping in to position again in the last kilometre. Roger Kluge was very impressive in his first leadout for Ewan and earned plenty of praise from his team-mates. It was also a very impressive finish by Bennett who isn't 100% yet, he could have a good week this week if Bora sort out their leadout and commit to riding for him in the sprints. 

Van Poppel was disappointing after the work done by Sky and Kump and Arndt never really got in to it either. Bonifazio sprinted well to take 4th to justify my faith in him, he could go well this week too in the sprint finishes. And what a return to action for Edward Theuns after a six month absence, taking 5th in the sprint, despite losing Koen de Kort's leadout wheel on the second last corner.  

The first stage of this year's TDU is a very similar stage to last year's first stage, with an early climb of Humbug Scrub to tempt out those looking to win the KOM jersey. Once over the top they descend towards Williamstown and the Barossa Valley, where they take in three laps of the finishing circuit through Lyndoch, Sandy Creek and Cockatoo Valley. The finish is perfect for a fast sprint, with a descent for the last 7kms that takes them to a flat last 200m.

Caleb Ewan took the sprint in 2016 from Mark Renshaw and Wouter Wippert, and after his win in the People's Choice on Sunday morning he'll be going for his third win of the season here. And who'd bet against them in a finish that suits them even better than the crit circuit on Sunday? With Durbridge, Impey and Kluge to lead him out Ewan will get that armchair ride to the last kilometre. And if he shows the kick he showed in the Classic then he'll probably win this too. But 10/11? He was that price before the off with Bet365 on Sunday morning, Paddy Power were still 5/4, but it's a long way from the 15/8 we took for the PC. 

Can Sam Bennett get closer to him this time? Well with a race in his legs and a confidence boosting finish where he shot past the World Champion to take 2nd, he should get the full support of the Bora team to try to put it up to Ewan. He was clearly faster than him in the last 50m, but 7/2 though?? I've never seen Bennett as short for a stage victory, and I'm not all that keen on taking such a short price on him with the confusion and outcome of today's stage.

I hope he wins it, I think he will run him close, but he isn't even big enough for an each-way bet. Bennett said afterwards that Sagan was a sort of decoy in the last kilometre, in that everyone was fighting for Sagan's wheel and they were all following him. But Sagan's accelerations and diving between gaps didn't help Bennet, who lost position, it's difficult for the man on your wheel to stay with you when you are riding like that and everyone is fighting for your wheel.. Let's see if they can do a more conventional lead-out this time and drop Bennett on Ewan's wheel in the last 100m. Sagan may well be good enough for a top 3 again if he keeps sprinting.

One that I like though is Edward Theuns at 16/1 with Bet365 - Theuns was very close with a good 5th place on Sunday, coming from 11th place with just 200m to go, finishing very fast to nudge ahead of Renshaw and Sean de Bie on the line (far side on the right).

Koen de Kort is one of the best leadout men in the business but lost Theuns with 500m to go and they were very annoyed about that as Theuns felt he could have done a lot better. With a straighter run in and a flat last 500m Trek could be closer and maybe launch Theuns on to a podium place. 

Niccolo Bonifazio finished just ahead of those three (right) but was no match for the speed of the first three who finished a few bike lengths ahead of him. He did some of the sprint sitting down so he isn't exactly firing on all cylinders yet, but he could get close again. He's the same price as Theuns, but I'd rather be on Theuns I think. 

Danny Van Poppel was way off the pace when push came to shove, I don't know if he'll do any better this time. Same with Renshaw, De Bie, Arndt, Planckaert, Swift, Kump - they will really need to up their game to be able to match the guys who finished in the top 3 Sunday. 

So I think it's another stage for Ewan to lose - but something else to bear in mind is the weather - it's going to be around 36 degrees in the middle of the day and that will suit the Aussies more than others and it might just tip this stage a little bit more in Ewans favour. Play up your winnings on Ewan from Sunday if you want, but I think at that price I'll give him a skip and have a go at Theuns instead at 16/1.  

See an update to my Overall preview below too.. 

Play the Zweeler Fantasy Game for Stage 1 here. 

Recommendations:

0.75pts each-way on Edward Theuns at 16/1 with Bet365

 

Matchbets

Bonifazio to beat Renshaw - 3pts at 4/6 with Bet365

Theuns to beat Planckaert, Bevin to beat Sutherlin and Sagan to beat Swift - 3pts on the treble at 15/8 with Bet365

 

 

Stage 2

Stirling to Paracombe, 148.5kms

Wednesday 18th January 

A bit disappointing to wake up to watch Ewan win again, I knew we should have stuck with him! Well, they got a lot closer this time to him though, with only inches separating him and Van Poppel and Bennett. On a blisteringly hot day (temperatures reached 44 degrees) the race organisers shortened the course by one of the final circuits, taking it back to only 118kms. And despite a bluff by Bennett before the race, when he told the organisers he was going to be leading out for Sagan and he was a little nervous about the prospect, it was indeed Sagan leading out for Bennett instead. He did a good job leading out, had them all under pressure, but he went too early and dropped Bennett off with more than 150m to go, he could have done with maybe another 50m of a leadout.

As it was, Ewan had enough time to wind it up and get past Bennett on the line, with Van Poppel showing some good speed to reward the Sky backers by taking 2nd place between them. Theuns was disappointing, finishing 8th, Trek are still trying to get things right according to De Kort afterwards. Some of those that were well off the pace in the PC got a lot closer this time, with Kump taking 4th ahead of Bonifazio, Arndt 6th, Planckaert 7th and Miles Scotson impressing again with a 9th place finish. Sean de Bie, Mark Renshaw and Jay McCarthy were next, Jay McCarthy was also sprinting out on the course for bonus seconds, finishing ahead of Gerrans, so he now sits in 4th overall, the top of the GC candidates.

Bonifazio won the matchbet, but the treble was bust by Planckaert beating Theuns by one place (Theuns seemed to freewheel the last 20m too) but also Sutterlin sprinting to 17th beat Bevin who was just 2 places behind him. Good to see Sutterlin up there challenging still though! 

Two years ago Rohan Dennis was supposed to be support for Cadel Evans' attempt to try to win the race at the final time of asking. Instead, he took off on the final climb of the stage to Paracombe, as the others stalled and watched Evans, and the winning margin he secured that day was enough to take victory in the race. This is a similar stage to that one, in that they went over a rolling course, then the ramp up to the finish on Torrens Hill in Paracombe. 

Torrens Hill Road is a very popular climb with riders in the Adelaide area as it winds its way up to the tiny little village of Paracombe which has less than 100 inhabitants. The final climb itself is short, but hard - 1.2kms at an average of 9.9%, but it's a very irregular gradient, hitting over 20% in parts. Anyone who has designs on winning the overall needs to be right at the front as they hit the final 1500m of this stage, as we saw with Rohan Dennis in the video above from 2015. Many may think that the race will be decided on Willunga Hill on stage 5, but it was Paracombe decided it in 2015 and it could well be the case again this year.    

They start with the rolling circuit around Stirling and Bradbury which they do five times, and by the time they leave it they will have already covered 100kms. A break will have gone, with possibly 6 or 8 riders, made up of some UniSA riders (maybe Cam Meyer), maybe Miles Scotson from BMC, so they don't have to chase, Ben O'Connor for Dimension Data, Clarke or Scully for Cannondale-Drapac and Jack Bauer for Quickstep - basically the Antipodeans and maybe a European or two who is in good shape. 

They head north and at Norton Summit they start to decend for the next 15kms down to Athelstone, where there is a brief flat-ish area before the final pull up to Torrens Hill. I said above how the final climb itself is short - but they will have been climbing for about 8kms before the final pull up Torrens Hill Road this year, making it a harder finish than the last time up here. 

The road narrows as they enter the foot of the climb so normally in a situation like that positioning is crucial, but Dennis shredded that theory when he won. Evans, Pozzovivo, Dumoulin and Porte got away at  the bottom of the climb, and for a while it looked like it might be between this four. But no one wanted to take up the pace and a group came back at them, a group from which Dennis accelerated and in a matter of seconds had a 10m gap. So yes, positioning is crucial, but it relies on the riders out front not easing off enough to let the stragglers have a second bite at the cherry. 

Here's a preview by the University of South Australia crew, who will be supporting their boys of the UNI SA team:

 

 

 

This stage could well decide this race and it is very hard to call how this one is going to go given the little knowledge we have to go on in terms of climbing form. If the likes of Evans and Porte had kicked on the last time they would have maybe won the stage by 20" or more. As it was, they paused, let the stragglers catch up, and except for Dennis, who shot away, the rest finished pretty close to each other as they struggled up the climb. Strong guys like Dumoulin finished ahead of the likes of Porte and Pozzovivo.  

This year we have some really strong climbers in the race, with Chaves, Henao, Porte, Pantano and Pozzovivo, and quite a few just below their level who could get involved too on a short, punchy finish, like Dennis, Dumoulin, Rogers and Geschke did last time around. Also this time around there is a much longer lead-in to the climb, they wil be climbing for nearly 10kms by the time they hit the finish line. It means that teams like BMC, SKY and Orica will be pushing hard for all of the last 10kms to get rid of stragglers and make it a real test on the final kick to Paracombe. There is a small respite without about 3kms to go, as you can see in the bottom profile below, where it flattens out a little, but then kicks up again for the last 1500m up Torrens Hill Road. 

If Henao, Porte or Chaves try to light it up in the last 1500m there won't be many able to stay with them, that is, if they are close to top shape themselves. Porte was led in to the foot of the climb by Geraint Thomas, but he faded quickly and Porte couldn't kick on, or at least was happy just to mark Evans, maybe knowing he had the beating of Evans and the rest on Willunga. What he didn't reckon on was Rohan Dennis scooting away from them to win by enough to prevent Porte from winning. 

I can't see Richie Porte making the same mistake twice and letting someone skip away, and he even has Rohan Dennis on his side this time to help control things, or even jump away again to make the others chase him. He also has Wyss, Caruso, Moinard and Ventoso to look after him and I think he will be able to stay close to the front to give himself a winning chance on stage 5. Dennis is too short at 16/1 though given the likely team scenario.

Can Esteban Chaves show he is the best climber in the race? Orica, as usual, have big ambitions in this race and have a strong team here to support him. If this was a stage in July or August I think he'd be a hot favourite for this, but I'm not sure he's going to be fully tuned up for this just yet. Also, I think he needs a longer climb than this to make his mark. I could be very wrong and he skip away from them all, but I'm not taking a chance on it. 

Sergio Henao leads the line for Sky and could have a big chance here. Very fast on steep finishes like this, 'Winner' of the sprint for 2nd on the steep finish in Arrate in the Pais Vasco last year, he has also finished 5th on the Mur de Huy. He finished 3rd in this race last year so we know he can go well at this time of the year too. Kenny Ellissonde was drafted in to the team in place of the ill Owain Doull, and he is a good addition to Henao's team here, he will help him get to the final km at the front.

Elissonde was quoted before last night's stage as saying 'I was training out here with Chris Froome anyway so it was easy to join the team. I will do all I can to help Henao, he has prepared a long time for this race". So there you have it - Henao wants to win this race and it may well be that he has to make his move today. If he does, there won't be many able to go with him and he should be in the top 3. 

If Michael Woods wants to win the Tour Down Under he will need to get a big result here. He certainly has the ability, he's one of the best climbers in the race and is in top shape at the moment. He will need to go with Henao and anyone else that attacks, or even go on the attack himself with 1km or so to go. Slagter, Clarke and Howes will be needed to look after him and make sure he is in the right place at the bottom of the hill. He showed last year he can mark the moves by Henao, and I think he could be good enough to get a top 3 result here too. He has been doing some super-impressive intervals - 6 mins at 490 W for a guy who's 64kgs.. he's in shape, he's lean and he's a decent price at 9/1 with Bet365. 

Jay McCarthy showed last year he can go really well on punchy finishes, taking the victory on the uphill finish to Stirling ahead of Diego Ulissi and Rohan Dennis. He wasn't quite with the pace on Willunga, but still finished a respectable 15th. He showed on stage 1 though that he is targeting a result in the GC, he outsprinted Simon Gerrans for an intermediate sprint and now sits in 4th overall. He will be one to watch but I fear he might just come up short in the last 500m. He looks too big at 25/1 with Paddy Power though, he's only 14s with Skybet and 13s with 365.

Jasha Sutterlin - well I mentioned for yesterday's stage that I had backed him at 1000/1 for this race, and that he had put up the 3rd fastest time on Willunga Hill this year.. Well, what I didn't mention then is that he also holds the record for the fastest time up Torrens Hill Road up to Paracombe, setting a blistering time of 3'13", a full 37" faster than Mike Woods and Jay McCarthy. And he did that at 558 W/kg average, with a heart rate of 171, one of the lowest on the leaderboard. That was also 15" faster than Jack Haig who finished 7th on the stage in 2015, going at race pace! The boy is flying and could be a real dark horse here at a huge price of 150/1 with Bet365. 

Simon Gerrans? I don't think he'll be in the mix, he'll have burnt himself out for Chaves, unless Chaves is struggling.. But I can't see him staying with Woods, Henao and co. if they go full gas, like on Willunga last year. Same possibly with Diego Ulissi, he may struggle to go with the faster guys, unless the pace is steadier, and maybe stalls a bit like last time up, then these two guys could have a chance at punching for the finish. Peter Sagan? The fact he is not going for the sprints either means he's not fully fit, or he's saving himself for these tougher stages - I think it's the former, but it is always dangerous to rule out Sagan as we all know. 

Gianluca Brambilla would be one that I would fancy for a stage like this if it was in the Giro or the Vuelta, but he seems to be keeping a very low profile and may not be in top shape yet. Tom Jelte Slagter could go well here, but he'll have to go from further out and maybe try to get away with a small group 5 or 6kms from the finish, he's 50/1. Jose Goncalves might go well, so too could Carlos Barbero, now riding for Movistar after his move from Caja Rural - he could be up there with Sutterlin, and if he can stick on his wheel he could win the uphill sprint. It's a long shot, but he's 80/1. 

Robert Gesink can be there or thereabouts but may lack the finishing kick, same with Wilko Kelderman. Simon Geschke was 10th up here last time with Luis Leon Sanchez just behind him in 11th, they should be involved in the finale again too you would think. One other that I was interested in was Jesus Herrada, he won stage 2 of the Criterium du Dauphiné last year on a finish similar to this and had a pretty good year last year on uphill finishes. But PP were only going 12/1, and that was way too short to get me interested, the 18/1 with Bet365 was a bit better and will tempt some I'm sure. His former team-mate Giovanni Visconti (now riding for Bahrain Merida) is likely to try a late attack with 8 or 9kms to go, if they play around behind he might be hard to pull back, he could be one to go with Slagter - at 100/1 he's worth a small investment.

This is a very tricky stage to call, the break could make it if no one wants to chase and they want to save themselves for a GC battle, but the fact that the TDU is usually won by seconds probably means they won't be allowed stay away, just in case. A late break might just hold off the GC men if they stall and look at each other, but most likely is we'll get a battle between maybe 10 guys over the last kilometre. It should be pretty exciting, and could be very significant towards the outcome of this TDU.

I think the top 4 will have some or all of Woods, Porte, Henao and McCarthy and then there is a bunch of guys that will be fighting for the top 10, and maybe even podium spots. Herrada, Sutterlin, Gesink and maybe Chaves and Dennis. I'm hoping Woods can drop them all like I'm expecting him to and at 9/1 (10/1 was taken) with Bet365 he's worth backing each-way, he's only 6/1 with Paddy Power. I'm tempted to have a saver on Henao at 4/1 with Ladbrokes but I think I'll leave it.. 

 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Michael Woods at 9/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Jasha Sutterlin at 150/1 with Bet365

0.2pts each-way on Giovanni Visconti at 100/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way on Jay McCarthy at 25/1 with Paddy Power

  

Matchbets

Porte to beat Gestink, McCarthy to beat Gerrans, Ulissi to beat Slagter - 1pt on the treble at 10/3 with Will Hill

McCarthy to beat Gerrans - 12pts at 5/4 with William Hill and 10pts onGerrans to beat McCarthy with Bet365 at evens - you are effectively turning a 5/4 bet on McCarthy in to a 5/2 bet with this arb.. 

Pantano to beat Kelderman - 2pts at 5/6 with WillHill

Pozzovivo to beat Valls - 2pts at 5/6 with Will Hill 

 

 

 

Stage 3

Glenelg to Victor Harbour, 144kms

Thursday 19th January 

Richie Porte has effectively finished this race from a GC point of view with a stunning ride last night up Paracombe. There was no waiting and watching and marking from Porte this time around, he simply went full gas from over 1.5kms out, blew the race to pieces and only Chaves and Gorka Izagirre could go with him. Then he kicked again, and he was gone. He didn't sit down for the best part of a kilometre as he drove a chasm between him and his GC rivals. He won the stage by 16" and took the 10" bonus as well, so now leads the GC by 20" from Izagirre and 22" from Chaves. 

Izagirre was a surprise, I didn't expect to see him up there leading Chaves up the final climb, Chaves' class showed to get 3rd, but his lack of fitness I feared pre-race meant he was no match for Porte. He's still in the hunt though. Henao was very unlucky, suffering a mechanical in the run in to the final climb and was forced to chase hard with team-mates for several kilometres. To finish in the main group was a pretty good achievement after that. Same goes for Rohan Dennis, he led the chasers home to take 4th, despite suffering a flat not far from the finish. 

Haas and Ulissi were next - good, but not good enough, but two star performances came from young Gurreiro and Storer who took 7th and 8th in their first World Tour race. Rusty Woods got caught too far back when Porte made his move, his lack of experience showing again to not be in the right place at the right time. He took 9th ahead of Luis Leon, who is clearly riding well too as I thought he might. 

Our stage bets torpedoed, one annoyingly by Sutterlin deciding to go on the attack with only 30kms of the stage gone. I really don't understand why the guy who is the fastest on strava (or was up until Gurreiro posted a 3'09" last night) up Torrens Hill Road decided to take off and kill himself long before he got to the climb. Sure, Movistar were teeing up a move by Izagirre it looks like, but why not send someone else up the road? A time of 3'13" would have had him with the main group, where he could have maybe helped Izagirre to reduce the time gap. For a brief while though our 1000/1 man was the virtual leader..... 

The mathcbets were 3 out of 4 though with the main treble landing at 10/3, and Pozzovivo beat Valls by ONE place.. It was also annoying that it now seems that Pantano was working for his Trek team-mate Gurreiro on Paracombe, and he could only manage 23rd on the stage, 5 places behind Kelderman. These are the kinds of things you can't predict! But a 4pt profit puts us back ahead. 

The race is over as far as the GC is concerned, and even though Porte probably only needs to mark on Willunga, he's likely to put on a show again seeing as he's in such great shape, and I expect him to be around Evens to win the stage. He'll probably be 1/5 for the GC when the bookies price it up again. It's a battle for 2nd and 3rd now though, and that is really tight - only 9" between positions 2 to 20. I can see McCarthy continue to try to pick up bonus seconds, and it's going to be a hell of a fight up Willunga between Henao, Woods, Chaves, Sanchez, McCarthy and Dennis. And the likes of Valls, Kelderman, Ulissi, Pozzovivo and Gesink are not out of it either yet. 

So after a stage for the climbers and puncheurs, the sprinters are back in action with a stage that skirts along the shoreline before turning inland at Yankalilla and on to four laps of a 14km finishing circuit around Victor Harbour. The profile looks lumpy, but it's not that bad really, and it shouldn't cause any major problems, except to maye some of the unfit or unconcerned. There are two steep-ish hills out on the course, including the KOM at Sellicks Hill, but they are too far out from the finish to probably affect the outcome of the stage. The finish is straight and slightly downhill and is perfect for the fastest sprinters. 

So who will it be this time? Can anyone topple Ewan? It's possible - but everything has to fall in to place. Waiting for a market to open with the bookies is like being a kid at Christmas - you don't know what the traders will throw up at you, most of the time there is not a lot of tempting prices, but sometimes they can seem to get it wrong. That was the case with Gerro last year when I backed him at 60/1 for a stage he had a great chance on, and today it looks like they might have made a rick with pricing up Caleb Ewan.

When Paddies opened, Caleb Ewan was a massive 16/1 - ok, the circuit is a little lumpy, but it's not that bad, and 16/1 looked a crazy price. I tried to back it, the betslip said the dreaded 'price change' and I was told he was 13/1.. I tried to take that and got 'price changed' again, and was offered 12/1. I got 1pt each-way on and before you knew it he was 9/1, 6/1, 9/2 and now 5/2. Now of course he has a chance, he's won two sprints against these guys already, and will be well looked after by Orica, who are now fighting for stage victories as the GC is probably out of reach. But I can't recommend backing him at 2/1 now, unless you really want to back him, and here is why: 

This stage could see a strong break finally go - we've had pathetic attempts so far from the peloton - two one-man breaks in the stages so far, unbelievably none of the local UniSA, Drapac or Aussie riders on other teams have decided to go up the road yet, it's been a Belgian (de Vreese) and a German (Sutterlin). Surely a group will get away today and build up a healthy lead which could stay away. 

Secondly, the course is lumpy and bumpy around Victor Harbor, and the route will be buffeted by wind along the way, possibly causing splits and problems for the peloton. Ewan has been known to go missing when things get messy. Thirdly, the finish of this stage is quite tricky - as you see on the right, there is a sharp right hander with 600m to go, then a left hander with 500m to go, and a roundabout on the finishing straight about 200m from the line. You will need to be in the first 4 or 5 through those two tight bends to have a chance of victory, and Ewan could get disconnected from his leadout if it's very messy. 

Now on the other hand - a man who will relish that finish with the right, left, roundabout, sprint - is Peter Sagan. A master at tricky finishes, he should be right at the front and I think working for himself this time. But - even more significant I believe, is that this is a very important stage for the team - the stage is sponsored by Hansgrohe, the same Hansgrohe as team Bora-Hansgrohe! They will be desperate to win this stage for their new sponsors, to give them the World Champion to show off to the corporate guests and get maximum PR out of Sagan. I think PP knew this too and took a view like me on Sagan, hence why they opened with him as 9/2 favourite. 

I was hoping he would be a lot higher, maybe 10/1, and as Ewan was being hammered in to 5/2, Sagan briefly drifted to 6/1.. Hold, or hit?? I held, hoping he would go higher but is now back at the price he opened at, 9/2. I want to back him, hopefully someone else will open a bit bigger later on. I think that this may well have been the plan this week, that Sagan supports Bennett, gives him a chance, then he goes for the sponsor's stage in Victor Harbour today. 

PP made Ben Swift their 6/1 second favourite, and I thought that was mad too. Ok he seems to be sprinting ok and took the intermediate well on yesterday's stage, but no way is he a 6/1 shot. I think PP over-estimated the toughness of this finishing circuit by a long way and priced it up expecting only the tougher sprinters to survive, like Sagan and Swift. Maybe I'm wrong and they get it spot on, but I don't agree with that view. Simon Gerrans was next, he was only 7/1, he's now 20/1 and that's more realistic. He won't be winning though. 

Edward Theuns seems to be struggling a little now, I suppose a few races in to your comeback from a back injury, you're going to be feeling it.. I am not interested in him for today/s stage. Danny Van Poppel came closest to Ewan on stage 1, if he can match him again he looks an ok bet at 9/1 each-way, he may well podium again. Baptiste Planckaert has been pretty close, I thought he was a mad price at 150/1, so had a small bet, he's now 66/1 - try to get him at 100/1 oir bigger elsewhere if you can. All it takes is a touch of wheels up front on those bends and the leaders could be in a heap on the ground... Niccolo Bonifazio has been coming close and looks a tempting price at 20/1 with Bet365 to give Bahrian Merida a dream start to racing. 

And there could be a break that makes it as I said - either one that goes in the opening kilometres after KOM points (De Vreese) along with UniSA and other Aussie riders like Paddy Bevin, Miles Scotson etc or there could be late attacks on the closing circuit. Watch for the likes of Jan Bakelants, Tom Jelte Slagter, Luis Leon Sanchez or Dries Devenyns. But I think it will all come back together, Bora and Orica will take control, Sagan will dive-bomb in to the final two corners and steal a little lead on Ewan and they fight it out up the home straight. Bennett is a good back-up for Bora-Hansgrohe should Sagan not feel 100%, but I've just got a feeling that tonight's his night.  

Recommendations:

I'm on at 12/1 on Ewan for 1pt each-way, he is no value now at 6/4 to 2/1 but if you really want to back him, take the 2/1 with Paddy Power

Take Sagan for 1pt each-way at 6/1 or bigger later if you can, if it goes no bigger, take the 5/1

I'm on Baptiste Planckaert at 150/1, try to get 100/1 or bigger, or take 66/1 with PP - 0.15pts each-way

0.25pts each-way on Niccolo Bonifazio at 20/1 with Bet365

 

Match bets

Ewan to beat Bennett, Sagan to beat Swift, Van Poppel to beat Bonifazio and De Bie to beat Bevin - 2pts on the four-fold at 3/1 with Bet365

Arndt to beat Theuns - 2pts at 11/10 with Paddy Power

Arndt to beat Renshaw - 3pts at 8/11 with Bet365 

 

 

Stage 4

Norwood to Campbelltown, 149.5kms

Friday January 22nd

It's not often you land a 1-2-3 in a race, it's not often you get to back a 5/4 shot at 12/1! It made waking up at 3.30am a little more bearable this morning. Sagan did all he could to try to win the stage for Hansgrohe, as I predicted he would, Bennett and his team-mates worked hard all day to give him the opportunity. He seemed to be way too far back with just 1km to go, but he is the master at negotiating tricky finishes and he almost got there, diving up the left hand side, skimming a barrier. 

But Caleb Ewan is just too good. I don't know what was going on with Paddy Power offering 12/1 on him, they must have been looking at a different profile to me, he incredibly went off at 5/4, and looking at the way he won it, that was value!! Good news and bad news with the 3rd place - the good news was Bonifazio secured Bahrain Merida's first World Tour podium with 3rd place in the sprint to land the 20/1 each-way recommendation. The bad news was in doing so he beat DVP by millimetres to blow the four-fold!

Theuns then beat Arndt by just one place, but at least Arndt was well clear of Renshaw to land the 3pt matchbet. So swings and roundabouts, but I hope most of you had a profitable day by taking Ewan, or Sagan or Bonifazio, or all of the above! Not a great day for Gorka Izagirre though, he came down hard in the last 3kms, leaving him with a lot of road rash that is going to hurt like hell tomorrow. He didn't lose time, as it was inside the last 3kms, but it could well have seen to his podium chances - an update from Movistar this morning said that he hasn't any fractures, but they are waiting more results..

It also looks though like a split in the peloton might have cost some riders time, Henao, Woods, Earle and Storer all look to have lost 4" somehow, and they now sit 33" off of Porte instead of 29". That last podium spot is still up for grabs, Jay McCarthy will be fancying his chances, if he can nick a few more seconds out on the road somewhere in the remaining stages. Porte had a relatively comfortable day and is looking pretty happy and confident on the bike and off it.

This could be a stage for the breakaway to succeed - for a number of reasons. Firstly, a lot of riders had a tough day in the saddle today, with the heat and the wind and the tough course. Secondly, it's the big test the next day up Willunga Hill, so the GC men's teams might look to take a day off. Thirdly, the road starts climbing right from the flag drop and goes uphill for more or less the first 9kms as they head towards Houghton. Finally the KOM is at the 25km marker, so again there will be a number of stronger riders looking to get in the break to contest the points, and finally, from then on it is a rolling course which descends towards the finish for more or less 40kms. 

The last 10kms are going to be extremely fast and we could see the members of the break fighting it out with attack after attack in the closing stages, There is a slight uphill pull to the line for the last kilometre, so they wil have to keep something in reserve to try to take the stage if it does come down to a sprint, either from the break, or the remains of the peloton. 

The bookies have priced it up like it's another shoe-in, flat sprint finish for Caleb Ewan, with Paddy Power getting it all wrong again at first, opening at 6/1, but he quickly tumbled all the way to 5/4. Bet365 went even shorter when they came out, making him an even money shot. I'm not so sure about that today, I think it is way too short now. Sure, he is on fire, and winning on all sorts of finishes, but the run-in from Cudlee to Campbell town for the last 20kms is rough and tough and dangerous at times, and anything can happen. As they approach the finish, they charge down Gorge road, and it undulates up and down all the way, making it a perfect springboard for late attacks.

With 1200m to go they take a sharp right on to Maryvale Road, and it's a straight, uphill pull to the line for the last kilometre. The road rises at around a 2.5% gradient for the last kilometre, but there is a little pause in the middle before the final 300m which are a bit steeper. It will be a power mans sprint I think, rather than a pure speedster, and that's why I think Ewan is too short (in price, not stature, but actually, he's that too..)

 

 

Who can beat him? Well, Peter Sagan can, that's who. Sagan wasn't in the best of form early in the race, even switching from the pre-race tactics on stage 1 and telling Bennett to sprint instead. But he's been getting in to this race more and more and showed some superb speed and acceleration yesterday to dive through a crowded road, up the barriers and pounce on to Ewan. But Ewan got first run on him and he couldn't catch him. They are working for Sagan today and this finish should suit him perfectly - I think he might just have the power to outmuscle Ewan up the hill. Naturally there are no great odds about him, the biggest I think he was was 9/2, he's 4/1 now in a few places and he looks like a 'bet to nothing' to me - that is, back him each-way, he's got a pretty good chance of at least getting you your money back by finishing in the first 3, or 4pt profit if he wins. 

The uphill finish should suit Sam Bennett too, and we have the unusual situation of having two team-mates in the top 3 of the betting with most bookies, a crazy situation. In fact at one point, Paddy Power had three team-mates in the first four, with Jay McCarthy at one point 4th favourite at around 14/1. How can all four of them be going for it? I think Bennett will be the one to sacrifice himself to get the other two in position with 500m to go, and I think Jay and Sagan will sprint their own race, Sagan for the win, Jay to try to get some bonus seconds, or possibly on the right side of a gap.

One I also like the look of is Danny Van Poppel at 12/1 - DVP has been very consistent and very close to Sagan and Ewan so far, but this finish suits his skills much better. DVP is more of a power sprinter I've been told, and that the team are definitely working for him today. The way he's been sprinting, he is capable of breaking on to the podium. Niccolo Bonifazio can go close at 18/1 again, but I am not interested in Swift, Arndt, Renshaw, Theuns or McCarthy. The only other 'sprinter' I was interested in was Carlos Barbero, as the Movistar man likes an uphill sprint, and he's been close a few times to the speedier guys this week. At 66/1 with WillHill, he's worth a shot. 

So who can make it in the break? Well let's start with the Aussies - Orica will probably put someone in so that they don't have to chase all day. Someone like Luke Durbridge who looks to be very strong at the moment, judging by his strong performances at the front so far for Ewan, or will they ask him to save energy to help Chaves tomorrow? That is possible, so maybe Damian Howson could try his luck, the rest will probably be needed to stay with Chaves and Ewan. Durbo was 80/1 though, so he's worth a few pennies.

UniSA have possibilities with Cameron Mayer or Lucas Hamilton but Nathan Earle and Michael Storer are too high up the GC. Chris Hamilton might have a go for Sunweb, or Paddy Bevin or William Clarke for Cannondale and so on - there are about 60 guys we cold pick and stll not get the right ones!

Thomas de Gendt was one I was thinking of, but he went on the attack today, but as he sits in 2nd in the KOM competition he might try to secure a top 3 placing in that comp by going for the points. Lars Bak tried before him but failed, I was going to say he might try again, but I think he came down in that crash that took out Izagirre. Jasha Sutterlin has been active, is in good shape, maybe he'll try again, with some help this time - it is possible now that he no longer needs to be looking after Izagirre if he's too injured, he might be given the freedom to attack again - at 100/1, he's worth a shot.

Bahrain Merida tried to get Arashiro out in the break on stage 3, he failed too, but he, or maybe Visconti or Brajkovic might try this time, Brajkovic took up the pulling for Bonifazio in the sprint today though, so it will be touch and go if he'll be let go. Laurens de Vreese might go again now he's had a day to recover, or maybe Zakharov or Valgren might have a go for Astana. 

But it may be all to no avail again if Orica, BMC, Bora and Bahrain push it hard, although I do give the break the biggest chance this week of making it. I think it will possibly come down to a reduced bunch sprint, we might see some casualties on the way back, but it shoud be another cracking battle again between Sagan and Ewan, and hopefully we'll see Sags put his arms in the air for the first time in a Bora jersey. 

 

Recommendations:

1.5pts each-way on Peter Sagan at 4/1 with Bet365

0.1pts each-way on Carlos Barbero at 66/1 with Will Hill

0.5pts each-way on Danny Van Poppel at 12/1 with Will Hill

0.1pts win on Luke Durbridge at 80/1 with PP

0.1pts win on Jasha Sutterlin at 80/1 with various

 

Matchbets

Barbero to beat Breschel - 2pts at 8/11 with Bet365

Arndt to beat Theuns - 2pts at 11/10 with Bet365

Barbero to beat Breschel and DVP to beat Bonifazio - 2pts at 15/8 with Bet365 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stage 5

McLaren Vale to Willunga Hill, 151.5kms

Saturday 21st January

Looks like burning the candles at both ends caught up with me last night, as I slept through my alarm at 3.30am.. Looks like I missed a cracking finish with our boy Van Poppel almost pulling off the win for us at 12/1.. I haven't watched full highlights yet, but he seemed to get a good leadout, but maybe was let go a little too soon, and was swamped by the irrepressible Caleb Ewan, and the boss, Peter Sagan. So close to landing another 1-2, we'll have to settle for a 2-3 today, but pleased with the way I read that finish.

We scraped a 0.6pt win on the stage win bets thanks to DVP, but also took another 3.2pts courtesy of the matchbets. DVP easily beat Bonifazio and Barbero beat Breschel, but Arndt got lost somehow, don't know what happened, but he finished way down the field, despite Theuns only finishing in 35th. Well, Thuens finished in 35th because he was almost put in the barriers by Caleb Ewan, who was forced right by the Sky train, you can see it at 4'30" in the video below. Don't think you can blame Caleb too much for it, but if it was Bouhanni he'd probably have been DQ'ed!

But what about Ewan - he is incredible. I know I said I couldn't have him, and I'm sure there were a few nervous backers at evens watching that last 200m when he looked boxed in and DVP was going for it, but he is on fire and only a mechanical will stop him from making it four wins in the race on Sunday.. 6/1 was another gift if you managed to grab that yesterday!

Interesting to see the make-up of the top 20 on the stage though, there were indeed quite a few of the sprinters caught out on that finish, and instead we had the likes of Haas, Scotson, McCarthy and Sutterlin in the top 10, with Woods in 11th place. Sutterlin again showing just how strong he is in this race. Richie arrived safe and sound and only one stage really away from finally claiming victory (and landing us the 9/4 bets!) 

Stage 5 is the ever-important and ever-popular stage to Willunga Hill, which always plays a part in deciding the finishing positions of the race. Richie Porte sure loves it up here and is going for his third win in a row on the hill.  

It's the usual course, starting in McLaren Vale and doing three laps of the left circuit of 38kms, passing three times through Willunga at the base of Willunga Hill. With 35kms to go they start up Willunga Hill for the first time, where support riders will start to put the hammer down to thin out the peloton and start putting some at the back in the red. 

Willunga Hill is 3kms long at an average of 7%, starting at the big gum tree on the left hand side of the road. The first part of the climb is the steepest, averaging over 8%, with parts over 10%. After that the road settles down a little bit to average around 6% as it winds its way up the hill at a pretty steady gradient.

They know they've reached the top when they pass the large crown painted on the road. It doesn't really ease up until the last 50m when they turn left on to the finishing straight. Richie Porte holds the Strava KOM on the climb which he he picked up in 2015, (or Pitchie R as he calls himself on Strava), flying up the hill in just 6'39". 

 

 

Paddy Power came out with their prices very early for this stage, prices were up on Thursday afternoon.. They made Richie Porte the 5/6 favourite and I'm not surprised with that price, in fact I had guessed he would be evens on Tuesday, I was pretty close. Porte has been saying that he will sacrifice his chances of a stage win on Willunga in order to defend his lead and secure his first victory in this race, but I'm calling 'bullshit' on that.. Just like he was bullshitting about his form pre-race, saying he wasn't sure what his fitness was like.

He revealed after his win on Stage 2 that he had been doing intensive rep training in Tasmania to prepare himself for this race and is clearly absolutely flying. He is almost skeletal in appearance, I've never seen him looking so gaunt at this time of the year. As Rohan Dennis put it after today's stage:

“I think everyone will be pretty aggressive tomorrow but they’re going to have to have pretty good legs. If they’re going to go too early it could actually open them up and they could lose everything, so I’m not 100% sure if they will take that approach but I guess that’s the only way they can really beat Richie. I don’t think anyone can really catch the wheel of Richie unless there is serious bad luck tomorrow. If Richie is there up the front on the last lap of Willunga, the way he climbed Paracombe I say good luck to anyone.”

And that's my thoughts too - he was just so strong on Paracombe - he went almost from the very bottom and caught a lot of them by surprise - initially only Izagirre could go with him, then Chaves came across. But the trick Richie has is that he can kick again, just when the others are on the limit and hoping he eases back a bit - he barely sat down in the last kilometre on Paracombe, and actually extended his lead over the two chasers in the last kilometre. I think if he goes, there will be very few again will be able to live with him. 

Gorka Izagirre will be under attack from all sides and I fear he is going to lose out on his podium spot as a result of his crash, even if he had a virtual 'rest day' today. Esteban Chaves - what do we make of his performance on Paracombe? Well it was the performance of a rider full of class, but lacking fitness. He had to lean on Izagirre, not a noted climber, to help chase Porte and they actually lost time to him, with the chasers almost catching them on the line - chasers like Rohan Dennis, Nathan Haas and Diego Ulissi. Also - Izagirre was able to put about 10m between him and Chaves in just the last 50m or so, Chaves had nothing left. It doesn't fill me with confidence that he'll be able to live with Porte on Porte's hill either this time and I don't think he'll be winning it. 

Sergio Henao - we'll never know whether he would have been able to stay with Porte had he not had that mechanical in the run in to the climb. He and his team-mates had to bury themselves and take a lot of risks through the cars in order to get him back to the leaders, but they did a great job and he didn't lose much time at all, finishing with the main group. He was closest to Porte on Willunga last year and they were confident of challenging him this year, he could well be the one to chase him home, but 7/2 is very short. 

Michael Woods could be the one to benefit from the situation with Porte and the two Colombians - He could go long and should the others look to Porte to chase, and he decides to defend to start with, then Woods could get a gap they might not bridge. Chaves may not chase as he has the most to lose if he blows up, he could well be looking at 2nd place if he just rides conservatively and defends. Henao is the furthest down on GC so the onus will be on him to chase, but we don't know what he will have in the legs or whether he will be prepared to commit early.

Woods sprinted to 11th place in today's stage and said afterwards:

 “It was a good day today. After yesterday, I lost some time in the final sprint and we had a hard meeting last night and talked about how I needed to trust my teammates. I really focused on trusting my teammates, trusting the guys,” he continued. “They did an amazing job putting me into the position for the sprint, making sure I didn’t lose any time. I ended up top 15, which is not bad for a climber. I think it bodes well for tomorrow.”

If it comes down to a sprint between Porte, Woods and Henao at the top of Willunga, I think I'd want my money to be on Woods. Hopefully he can do enough to move on to a podium spot, it's not out of reach at all. He was 18/1 when PP opened, he is now out to 20/1 and that's definitely an each-way bet for me. 

Rohan Dennis is in great shape too and led home the chasers behind Chaves on Paracombe, leaving a lot of so-called 'climbers' behind him. He also went really well on Willunga when in the leader's jersey two years ago, but just couldn't match a flying Porte. He did enough to finish second on the stage, 7" ahead of the likes of Cadel Evans, securing victory in the race. BMC are confident that he can pull off a big ride here, but I think he will be trying to stay as close as possible to Porte up until the point in the climb that Porte says 'Cheers matey, I'm off' and goes. Dennis is also eyeing Izagirre's spot on the podium so I don't think he will ease back at all, if he's on a good day he could ride in to a podium position. 

I think Simon Gerrans and Diego Ulissi will struggle to stay with the faster guys here, so I'm ruling those out. Hard to know what to expect of Robert Gesink and Rafael Valls, but they should be there or thereabouts in the top 10. 15th for Valls on Paracombe was a good sign that he is in good shape after his lay-off. Some that I will be very interested in watching though are the young guys in the top 20 on stage 2 and in the top 20 in the GC. 

Ruben Gurreiro is riding his first ever World Tour race after transferring to Trek for this season. He finished a very impressive 7th up Paracombe, he had the experienced Jarlinson Pantano looking after him on the climb. He is a young rider with a very bright future ahead of him and I wouldn't think it will be long before he starts hitting podiums. The U23 Portugese champion  finished 13th in the Tour of California last year and 3rd in the U23 Liege-Bastogne-Liege. He's a good climber and may be able to hang on to the coat-tails of the likes of Henao here at 80/1.

Michael Storer could go well for UniSA, he's a decent climber as we saw with his 8th place on Paracombe, ahead of Woods, Henao and McCarthy. He finished 7th in the GC in the Tour de L'Avenir last year, taking 2nd place on the tough finish to Les Carroz d'Arraches, the 19 year old was certainly not fazed by riding with the World Tour pros this week. He's worth a nibble at 125/1 with Bet365 - he might try to get away early on the climb and could be let go. And don't forget his team-mate Lucas Hamilton went on the attack at the bottom of Willunga last year and still managed to finish in 14th place when just 19. Winner of the mountains classification in the Tour de L'Avenir last year and 3rd in the Rás - at 300/1, he's another long-shot for a bit of fun..

And the third one is Enric Mas of Quickstep, this guy looks like the real deal - 17th on Paracombe, 14th the next day in Victor Harbor, he sits in 14th in the GC. Winner of the Tour de Savoie Mont Blanc last year and 2nd in the mountainous Giro Ciclistico della Valle d'Aosta Mont Blanc with placings of 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd and 4th in the five stages. He also won the Volta ao Alentejo earlier in the year, winning a stage with a similar finish to Willunga at Montemor o Novo. At 100/1, let's see what he can do tomorrow!

Gianluca Brambilla would have liked a stage like this later in the season, but he finished 57" back on Paracombe, so I don't think he is near his best shape yet. Wilco Kelderman, Jesus Herrada and Domenico Pozzovivo will be top 20 but not top 5, but others who might come close to the top 5 are Luis Leon, Jay McCarthy and Nathan Haas.

But I can't see anyone taking away Porte's crown and I'm playing up some winnings from this week and looking to make a good week a very good week.. Hopefully Rusty Woods can show us what he is capable and land a podium spot at a decent price. And it would be great to see one of the youngsters in the mix hitting the last 2kms. 

 

Recommendations:

6pts win on Richie Porte at 5/6 with Paddy Power

0.5pts each-way on Michael Woods at 20/1 with Paddy Power

0.15pts each-way on Enric Mas at 100/1 with Bet365

0.1pts each-way on Michael Storer at 125/1 with Bet365

0.1pts on Ruben Gurreiro at 80/1 with Paddy Power

0.1pts each-way at 300/1 with Paddy Power

 

Matchbets

Storer to beat Mas - 5pts at evens with Bet365

Woods to beat Chaves - 2pts at 7/4 with 365

Porte to beat Henao and Ulissi to beat Gesink - 3pts at evens with 365

Valls to beat Pozzovivo - 2pts at 5/6 with 365 

 

Stage 6

King William Road, Adelaide, 90kms

Sunday 22nd January 

 

Full preview can be found here. 

 

Match Bets