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Published on Saturday, 21 January 2017 14:03

Tour Down Under Stage 6 

Adelaide, South Australia

22 January 2016, 90kms

We move on to the final stage of a great week for the Australians - Caleb Ewan bids to make it four stage wins for him and six stages out of six for the Aussies, a feat that has happened only two other times in the race's history. 

I think I must have reached max size limit on my full preview page as my system won't let me save any more info on that page! So I've added the stage 6 preview here instead.. 

King William Road, Adelaide, 90kms

Sunday 22nd January 

As one of my childhood heros used to say "I love it when a plan comes together!" - and the plan for last night's stage couldn't have gone much better.. Richie Porte was simply sensational. Despite being left to his own devices with 5kms to go and everyone seemingly ganging up on him, he calmly sat in behind Henao and when the moment came he just put the hammer down again and it was 'sayonara suckers'!

He just blew them away in no time again, winning by an impressive 20", to take his oveall lead to 48", one of the most commanding wins in the history of the TDU, the biggest winning margin since Pat Jonker beat Robbie McEwan by 1'13" in 2004. I expected him to win, but I didn't expect such a demolition job. 

Henao backers were left in tears as he not only finished outside the top 10 on the stage, but is nowhere near the podium places on the GC either. Instead, an incredible ride by Nathan Haas saw him take 2nd place on the stage to make it a 1-2 for the Aussies, but also jumped him on to a podium spot just 3" behind Chaves in 2nd place. Chaves did as I thought he might and just ride conservatively to protect his 2nd place on the GC, he didn't put himself in to the red trying to stay with Porte. It was good enough to give him 3rd on the stage though. Ulissi was impressive to take 4th, as was Jay McCarthy to take 5th, with great rides also from Nathan Earle in 6th, Valls in 7th and Slagter in 10th.

It was a very profitable night too for us, with Richie winning and Valls and Ulissi winning their matchbets, as did our man Storer who landed the big matchbet for us at evens to take the profit on the night to 10.8pts, making it a fourth winning day out of five in this TDU. The the loss on stage 1 a manageable 2.5pts, so we are well ahead on the week. With Porte wrapping up the GC and our two GC match bets looking like winners, there is another 10.3pts profit coming in there, making it a very profitable week indeed. A great way to start the season!

I say the plan couldn't have gone much better, but the one disappointment was Rusty Woods who again got caught too far back from the main action when the pressure came on and was on the wrong side of the split when Richie started stretching things out. He bridged, but it cost him and he came in down the field in 27th, pushing him way down to 21st on the GC. It was disappointing to see him underperform this week as I had high hopes for him after getting great reports about his condition. Can't win them all as they say..

The final stage, the final chance to steal bonus seconds for those in the hunt for the Ochre jersey. Twenty laps of a 4.5kms circuit that rolls up and down the little hill up War Memorial Drive to the KOM on Montefiore Hill and climbs up King Willam Road to the finish. The road is wide and smooth and slopes up to the line, so suits the lighter, powerful sprinters like Caleb Ewan who took last year's stage. 

This should be a straightforward fourth stage win for Ewan, and his sixth win of the season if you include the Criterium championships and the People's Choice. He has been brilliant, but 8/13? That's a bit tight alright, especially considering the picture might be clouded a little by the state of the GC. 

Orica will want to protect the 2nd place of Esteban Chaves on the GC, but Nathan Haas sits just 3" behind him. Haas will want to protect his 3rd place, as Jay McCarthy is just 3" behind him. So we could see a situation where the break is reeled in before lap 8 or 12 so they can compete for the intermediate bonus seconds. If Haas is going for seconds, Orica will have to work to protect Chaves, maybe getting Ewan to sprint for them. Bora should be busy too trying to get Jay Mac to sprint for seconds to move on to the podium. 

So that's a scenario to keep in mind, but it's probably unlikely, a break should go and mop up all the bonus seconds, Orica will be happy with that. So Ewan will probably have clear run to go for the sprint again. It's an uphill sprint, but not too difficult, and as we saw on the uphill sprint to Victor Harbor, not to mention his demolition job on this finish last year, he shouldn't have a problem with that. 

Peter Sagan or Sam Bennett? I was thinking Bennett might be given another chance, and that Sagan might be looking after McCarthy, but Sagan is really warming in to this now and has been the closest to Ewan this week. The uphill finish will suit him too and it was interesting to see what he said on instagram after his 2nd place on stage 4 - 

"The squad did again an excellent job but I think I might have started my sprint a bit too late. However, the sensations are good, even if the heat takes its toll. Tomorrow, we have an important day where Jay will fight for his GC chances and I will give it a try again on Sunday."

 So it looks like he's going for it.. so 7 or 8/1 each-way looks a pretty solid bet again to post a return, he'll probably podium again. 

Danny Van Poppel can maybe repeat his performance on stage 4 too, with an uphill finish to suit, the 9/1 for him looks an each-way bet too. He will need to maybe hold back a little longer, Sky should not take up all the work so early this time, let Orica and Bora do it and then come to the front with less than a kilometre to go so they don't release him too early this time. He has the speed, he just needs to time it right to try to rescue something out of this race for Sky.

Niccolo Bonifazio can go close again at 10/1, he has been very close to Ewan and Bennett too this week Sam Bennett, if he gets the nod is a decent shout for the podium too, it will be interesting to see if they let them both sprint.. Edward Theuns was unlucky on stage 4, he was starting a very fast looking run down the barriers when he was cut up by Caleb Ewan - if he gets a clear run this time he can maybe feature too. And Mark Renshaw - can he finally do something in this race? He was 2nd to Ewan here last year. It's unlikely though given his performances so far this week. 

Nik Arndt, Kump, Planckaert, Manzin, Sutterlin - they can call fill places 5th to 10th, but it will be a surprise to see them podium I think. 

So - if you are brave enough and want to play up some winnings, Ewan looks almost a certainty to take another stage win.. If you can get closer to 4/5 or evens (unlikely) then definitely take it. Or put him in a double with Real Madrid or Porto to give the odds a little boost! Sagan, if he is contesting the sprint, is good enough to podium, and DVP can maybe complete the podium again.

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Peter Sagan at 7/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Danny Van Poppel at 9/1 with Paddy Power

Match Bets

Theuns to beat Arndt, Van Poppel to beat Bonifazio and Kump to beat Barbero - 3pts on the treble at 3.1/1 with Paddy Power