Stage 2 

Stage 2 - San Luis to Villa Mercedes, 181.9kms

Tuesday 19th January 2016

So an intertesting start to the race with odds-on favourites Tinkoff finishing down in 4th place and Etixx Quickstep showing that even with a 3rd division squad they are still a formidable time trialling unit. It was an excellent start for our GC hopeful Rodrigo Contreras as he got a nice little head start on some of his rivals. It was also an excellent start for Nairo Quintana and I think he may well be the evens I suggested he might be once the bookies open the market again tomorrow, that is, if they do open a market, they didn't always last year between stages.

Another team who will be very happy with their day's (or rather 24 minutes) work is Astana, as they pulled off a great ride to take 3rd place, boosting Miguel Angel López's and Vincenzo Nibali's chances of a good result. Tinkoff will be disappointed with their ride, losing 23" to EQS. United Healthcare though will be happy to take 5th, as will Delko Marseille who took 7th, after leading for a lot of the day. Daniel Diaz lost only 50" to Quintana, which I'm sure he'll be happy enough with, it's in line with the minute I estimated he would lose. He won stage 4 last year by 56" from Quintana, so he should remain confident that he can claw back some time this week on the two big climbs. Cannondale were a shambles, very disappointing to lose 59" in a TT like that. Max Richeze is the first leader of the race, a nice touch by EQS to let the Argentinian cross the line first. 

On to Stage 2 then and this is almost an exact replica of stage 1 of last year's race, with it just being 5kms less than last years' stage. They start in San Luis and climb 220m in the first 18kms to La Cumbre, then a long descent which takes them through the finish town of Villa Mercedes after 88kms and continues descending for another 36kms until they reach Justo Daract, the lowest point in the profile. They do a u-turn at Justo Daract and the road then starts to rise again gently to once again take them through Villa Mercedes, before a final loop of 14.5kms around the town. 

With 2kms to go they veer right on a roundabout on to Hilario Cuadros and from there the road starts to descend slightly, so it's a very fast finish. With 1400m to go they take a right, then 100m later a sharp right to bring them on to the finishing straight. The last 1300m are almost dead straight, slightly downhill, so expect a major sprinters battle. 

Last year there was a crash in the closing kilometres, but it didn't stop the race ending in a sprint as expected. What wasn't expected though was for rising Colombian sprinting sensation Fernando Gaviria to announce himself to the world and spoil all the hard work done by Tom Boonen and the QuickStep boys by outsprinting Mark Cavendish and Sacha Modolo to take the first of his two stage victories. He tracked the EQS boys brilliantly in to the last 200m and launched his sprint early, catching Cav by surprise, and held his lead comfortably to the line. 

2014 stage finish to Villa Mercedes:

Villa Mercedes was also the finish to stage 1 in 2014, but it was quite a different stage and will be remembered for the breakaway which saw Phil Gaimon take the stage and almost the overall GC too, as they finished some 4'35" ahead of the main peloton. He ultimately held on for 3rd place on the podium. 

Preview and Prediction

Fernando Gaviria used the EQS team last year to perfection, tracking them to the last 200m and then pouncing. It should be a lot easier for him to track them this year as he is now part of their team, and his closest rival last year Mark Cavendish has moved on to Dimension Data.. If Gaviria can repeat the sort of performance he put in last year, with a leadout from Stijn Vandenbergh, Max Richeze and Sabatini, then it'll be hard to see anyone beating him, there's not exactly a wealth of sprinting talent heading to Argentina. The one spanner in the works now though is that Richeze has taken the leader's jersey - he is sure to want to keep it for at least another day, so will he be leading out Gaviria? Will the team work for Gaviria or look after Richeze? He looks the most likely winner, but 5/4 doesn't appeal to me a great deal, especially in light of what happened to Tinkoff in the TTT. 

Having said that, there are two potential big rivals in Elia Viviani and World Champion Peter Sagan. Normally, I'd put Viviani probably favourite for a stage like this, but I'm a little worried about the fact that he is riding for an 'Italy' invitational team, rather than team Sky, and who knows what the motivation will be like with him to push himself to the limit. Also, it's hard to see this Italian invitational squad, which includes Pippo Pozzato and a bunch of kids lead him out to much effect. On the other hand, I spoke to one of the backroom staff from team Sky at the Tour of Britain in September and he told me that Viviani doesn't like a leadout at the finish, that he likes to be delivered to the front with about 3kms to go and he prefers to do the rest himself, surfing the wheels of the other sprinters. So, if he's up for it, then he'll probably be alright, but these sprints in San Luis can get pretty messy. 7/4 doesn't do anything for me either, far too short.

One potential scenario though with this Italian squad is that Viviani is here to help blood young Italian talent and might be willing to work for the young sprinter Jakub Mareczko. He won an an incredible eight out of the ten stages in the Tour of Taihu Lake last year, as well as a number of top 5 placings on races throughout the season. This is different league altogether now though, can he repeat those sorts of victories against World Tour opposition? He opened at 100/1 and has been backed, he is now around the 50/1 mark.. It all depends on the team plan - if he's going for it, it is a big price. 

Peter Sagan comes here showing off his World Champ stripes for the first time in competition and he may well look to get the 'curse of the Rainbow Jersey' off his back as early as he possibly can. Sagan didn't race in this in 2015, but in 2014 he did manage a 2nd place finish in the final stage, just being pipped by Sacha Modolo. He's had quite a hectic winter of World Champion related nonsense, Oleg Tinkoff related nonsense, a wedding, skiing trips etc and it's hard to see him coming here in top shape a fact borne out by the bizarre shots of him riding the TTT yesterday with hairy legs.. Now of course there's nothing wrong with cycling with hairy legs, I do it all the time (!), but it reflects an attitude problem to me, that he may be there because he has to and not because he wants to.

Add in the fact that in a straight, flat-out sprint, Gaviria and Viviani would probably beat him anyway, it's hard to make a case for him. In fact, being just the second stage and first road stage, I wouldn't be surprised to see him roll in mid-pack, nice and safe. The fact that Tinkoff only finished 4th in the TTT today also suggests he's probably going to need a few stages to get going. He'll probably leave them all trailing in his wake now though knowing Sagan..  

An outsider to keep an eye on though is Max Richeze's younger brother, Mauro Richeze.. In 2014 when Max Richeze took 3rd behind Modolo and Sagan in stage 7, Mauro Richeze was 4th. The two Richeze brothers rode together for a couple of years in 2008/09 when at CSF Group-Navigare, but since then Max's career has taken him to the World Tour stage with Lampre Merida and now EtixxQS, whereas Mauro has been battling away on the Continental scene. He also finished 3rd in this stage in 2012 behind Chicchi and 3rd in stage 7 in 2011.

He does look like he is in good sprinting form at the moment, after taking two stage wins in the Vuelta Kölbi a Costa Rica in December, and if he sits on his brothers wheel again in to the last kilometer he could snatch a top 5 or even a top 3 spot. Motivation is a major factor in races like this, and there probably is no bigger race for the Argentinian in which to shine, so he is sure to be fired up again. That potential outcome might be slightly different now though with Max in the leader's jersey, he might stay out of trouble.. But I have a feeling it's job done for him yesterday, today he will be doing his utmost to win the stage with Gaviria. At 33/1 I had to have a nibble. 

Daniele Ratto joins Androni Sidermec after spending one year at United Healthcare and he notched up a number of top 10s last year, including a 6th and a 7th in the Dubai Tour, showing that his legs can be good early in the year. It's been over two years since he last put his hands in the air in victory though, and that was a mountain breakaway stage win in the Vuelta, so it's hard to make a case for him winning this. He could well take a top 10 spot at worst though. Quentin Jauregui took some decent results last year for AG2R, but it's a big step up for him from winning the Grand Prix de la Somme to winning here. It will be interesting to see how the 21 year old goes this week though. 

 Fortuneo - Vital Concept is the new name for Brertagne Seche and they have a lively outsider here who could get their season off to a flyer in young Belgian Boris Valée. He does posess a pretty decent kick on him, he posted some decent results last year when riding for Lotto-Soudal, including four top 10s in the Tour de Wallonie and a fine 3rd place in the Tour Down Under's final stage criterium, which shows he can go well at this time of the year. Fortuneo went ok in the TTT today too, finishing in 12th, so they must be going well as a team. 66/1 was too big for big Boris, I'm hoping he gets in the mix. 

Lampre-Merida have Roberto Ferrari and Davide Cimolai, hard to know who will get the nod for the sprint, but I'd suspect Ferrari. Those around him better watch out though.. There's always the chance of course that we get a breakaway succeed, but trying to pick the constituents of a break that stays away in a race like this is impossible. There's also the possibility that a 'surprise' package could emerge like Gaviria last year, hard to tell whether there's another sprinting superstar waiting in the wings from one of the smaller teams here.

Guys like Travis McCabe of Holowesko-Citadel, who finished 2nd in the US National Championships in 2014, or Eric Marcotte of Team Jamis who beat him that day could all get in the mix too, it's hard to know how it will go, but based on the prices, I'm only really interested in having a small bet on the outsiders, the top three don't appeal to me at all at those prices. 

 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Mauro Richeze at 33/1 with Ladbrokes

0.25pts each-way on Boris Valée at 66/1 with Ladbrokes 

 

Stage Profile

Route Map

Last 3kms

Finish 

  

 

Stage 3 

Stage 3 - El Potrero de los Funes - La Punta - El Cabildo , 131kms

Wednesday 20th January 2016

So the bookies got it almost right - Gaviria the 5/4 favourite won, Sagan the 4/1 3rd favourite was 2nd and Elia Vivani 7/4 2nd favourite was 3rd.. But it almost didn't happen. The break of the day looked like they were going to make it. With 11kms to go, apparently the gap was still 5 minutes. With a couple of kilometres it was apparently over a minute.. then suddenly, they swung around the final corner and there was the peloton right behind them. Gaviria was just too good, Sagan came late and almost got there.. but finished second. Again! At least he saw the funny side of it.. 

Stage 2, place 2 - I almost thought I forgot how is it to be second pic.twitter.com/b96XD66teK

— Peter Sagan (@petosagan) January 19, 2016

Mauro Richeze came very close to a podium spot, finishing in 6th, Marezcko came close too for Italy, taking 9th. Bad news for Godoy though as a crash cost him some time, but he isn't out of it, just makes his job a bit harder. Lopez crashed too apparently, but it looks like he finished without losing any time.

A familiar route again for stage 3, quite similar to stage 2 of 2015 and 2014 but they finish in La Punta instead of starting in it and go over El Mirador Del Potero with 11kms to go instead of finishing on it. It's an out and back stage, with the climb to Alto La Florida at the 56.4km mark the turning point. It's a relatively flat stage up until around 18kms to go when they start the climb of the well-used El Mirador del Potero.

The route they take is the easier side of the two ways to ascend the climb, with the descent to the finish in La Punta being the side used more often when climbing to the summit finish on El Mirador. On the side they climb it though this year from El Volcan, it drags up in a first section for about 3kms until it reaches a little flat section in the middle and then kicks up a lot steeper for the last 3kms or so of the climb, averaging nearly 10%. 

It's going to be an interesting finish this year, as instead of finishing on the top of the climb like they normally do, they continue on the fast 6.7% average descent for the next 8kms before it eases off to a flattish run-in to the finish in La Punta. Generally there are few riders come to the finish on the Mirador together, and it's often a solo rider, like Daniel Diaz last year or Diniz in 2013. There's often not much in it though, only a handful of seconds, so it'll be interesting to see if the leader over the top can hang on over the next 11.4kms of the run to the finish. If it does come back together then you would have to be looking at the sprinters who can climb a bit who might be able to hang on, but 3kms at 10% is a big ask. 

It's entirely possible that the break could make it again today, they almost made it on stage 2. It's relatively short at 131kms, which gives the break a chance, and the climb isn't brutally difficult. If they hit the bottom of the climb with 5-6 minutes they could make it all the way. Trying to pick who will be in the break is a complete lottery though as we saw today. And not only could a long-range break try to make it, if a leading group does get over the climb together, there are some who could attack on the descent, or even on the flat run to the finish. So many different scenarios...

The question I guess with regards the sprinters who can climb a bit has to centre around whether Peter Sagan can hang in there, seeing as he sprinted to second today. If he does come to the finish in a small group, he probably wins and the 25/1 with Ladbrokes will look the bet of the year. It is going to be really hard for him though I think to stay with the speedy south Americans who will be going all guns blazing tomorrow on the first big climb of the race, so I think I'm going to rule him out. And now that by the time I have written a few more paragraphs here he has tumbled to 5/1, I'm definitely not interested.. 

Daniel Diaz is likely to be one of the first over the climb, but I'm not sure his lead will be all that much and he will have a chasing pack coming after him over the last 11kms.. Alexis Vuillermoz sprinted to 12th place today, not a bad result for a guy who's not really a sprinter. He said afterwards as well on Facebook that he didn't have great sensations because of the heat and that he actually rode the sprint cautiously and he was hoping he'd feel better in the mountains. He can climb, he can sprint, he can attack as we saw when he won the Rio Cycle Challenge test event and the stage of the Tour on the Mur de Bretagne for us at 33/1. He could go well today on this sort of profile. He opened at 20/1 with Ladbrokes and I thought that was worth a bet.

Nairo Quintana should be comfortable enough today, he should be well looked after and will get over the climb without any problems. I can't see him soloing away from everyone and staying away to the finish though. Same for Rodolfo Torres, should be comfortable, but don't think he wins, he's far too short at 10/1. Daniel Moreno rides for Movistar now and if looks after Quintana and gets him to the finish line safely, he could strike out himself for the sprint - he was 5th on the stage that finished on El Mirador de Portrero last year so it holds no fears for him. He could possibly even attack on the climb if the others are watching Quintana. Quintana has been known to offer gifts from time to time when it suits him.

Eduardo Sepulveda won a race last year, the Tour du Doubs - Conseil Général, which had a very similar finish to this stage - a 5km climb followed by a 5km descent to the finish. He held on by 29" from a group of four chasers. In the Route du Sud stage 5 last year, which climbed the 1st Cat Port de Baies with a 20km descent to the finish after, he finished 5th behind Contador and Quintana. He could give it a go tomorrow, while they are watching Diaz, Quintana etc. 33/1 is worth a bet. 

Of course you can't look at a stage with a climb and a descent to the finish without considering Vincenzo Nibali, it's something that he's rather good at. I think he might find it hard on the climb to stay with the likes of Quintana and Diaz, but if he can limit his losses to less than 30" he has a chance of getting back on on the way down. He won't win a sprint though, so he would then have to attack and shake them off again, a tall ask. Definitely too tall an ask I think to merit him being the 3/1 favourite. 

Grega Bole could hang in there and would be a contender in a sprint finish from a small group, as could Miguel Angel Lopez if he isn't too badly injured after his crash today, he hurt his left knee apparently and was being evaluated last night. Lopez is a bit short at 13/2 if injured, Bole hasn't been listed by Ladbrokes in their list. 

So a hard stage to call, any number of unknown riders could spring a surprise here, but it's more than likely to come down to a small group of the stronger climbers I think. Whether Peter Sagan is part of that group or not determines who wins I think - if he's there, he wins. I'm going to plump for a few outsiders again though, been close with two 6th place finishes yesterday, hopefully we can get a podium at least tonight.

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Alexis Vuillermoz at 20/1 (take the 16/1 he is now)

0.3pts each-way on Eduardo Sepulveda at 33/1 with Ladbrokes

 

Stage Profile

   

Stage 4 

Stage 4 - San Luis to Cerro Del Amago, 140kms

Thursday 21st January 2016

Another 6th place last night with Vuillermoz, it's getting a bit annoying now! But no one could have predicted Koning of Drapac would ride solo to victory in that stage, I doubt he was even quoted by Bet365. Fernando Gaviria did incredibly well to 'win' the group sprint, that boy has some serious talent. If he can climb like that and sprint at the end of it, he'll be winning races like Milan-SanRemo in the not too distant future. Sagan backers were left disappointed as he failed to take a top 3 placing. Travis McCabe, who I had mentioned on Tuesday beat Sagan for 3rd place on the day, a great result for the American and the Holowesko-Citadel team.

Koning now holds a 6" lead from Gaviria, with Richeze in 3rd, but the real challengers sit just below that. Our boy Rodrigo Contreras sits in 4th and is in pole position as the first real climber on the GC, he's just 22" down. Nairo Quintana though is only 8" further back in 6th place so we should be in for a real battle on the slopes of the Cerro Del Amago today. I can't see Koning hanging in there on a stage like this, but wearing the leader's jersey might inspire him. 

This is a very similar stage to stage 4 in last year's race, when they started in Villa Dolores and finished on the Cerro Del Amago. That stage was 142kms, this year it's just 2kms shorter at 140kms. Last year's stage climbed gently for almost 90kms until they reached San Francisco Del Monte De Oro, the start of the climb to the finish, whereas this year the course is relatively flat until the 116km mark and the start of the final climb. 

But what a nasty finish to the stage it is - the road starts to rise up with 30kms to go, and they first crest the Alto De La Candela, a Cat 3 climb that takes them to 990m. From there they go straight on to the next climb, the Alto Del Amago. This Cat 1 climb is far harder than the preceeding climb though, rising 730m over less than 10kms, averaging nearly 7.8%. The climb pitches and falls in gradient, with parts around 5-6% followed by parts of 10-11% and the last kilometre averages 10.7%, making it a hard finish to the climb. 

The stage doesn't finish exactly at the summit of the climb though, as the road continues on for 1.9kms on a slightly descending run to the finish line. Last year, Daniel Diaz blasted away from his team-mate Alex Diniz, Nairo Quintana and Rodolfo Torres and sprinted up the hill to secure the stage victory and put himself far enough ahead to win the overall race too. The stage is sure to be decisive again, coming as it does with just two more stages before the final criterium in San Luis. 

It's likely we will see the same protagonists at the front again as they start the final climb to Del Amago. Daniel Diaz clearly likes this climb, and you'd have assumed that with the help of his new team, should be right up there again. It's his big moment of the year and he comes here full of motivation and in good physical shape, having trained specifically for it. He has been training hard in the mountains of Argentina, acclimatising to the high altitude, he's been there since late November, training in Satiago Del Estero, about 900km north of San Luis. Will we see him leave them all behind again this year? Well, based on the fact that he finished nearly 40" behind the Quintana group yesterday I'm not so sure. If Gaviria and Sagan were able to hang on in there it's not a great sign for Diaz at all. Movistar are sure to keep a closer eye on him this year and have the man-power here to be able to control the race a lot better. 

Can Nairo Quintana lay down a marker then today for the season ahead by taking the stage and the lead? It's very possible, he seems to be riding well. He should be pretty pleased with the way the GC is shaping up, there's not a lot of riders still in with a big chance of winning the race, bar of course another Koning type solo win that takes 90" again! He's got a 9" advantage over Sagan, Lopez and Nibali and the only one that he should be worried about there I think is Lopez. Quintana is only evens with Ladbrokes, that's too short I think.

Rodolfo Torres is still in with a shout too, sitting a minute back on Quintana, if he's on a good day and Quintana isn't he could make up that time, maybe some on this stage and the rest on the penultimate stage if needs be. 

Alexis Vuillermoz did well yesterday to take 6th on the stage, and is now sitting in 12th place on the GC, 48" behind Quintana. He rode well yesterday to take 6th, or 5th in the sprint, but will he be able to stay with the really good climbers on a much harder and longer climb like this? I think he can.. The size of the group yesterday that fought it out for 2nd place suggests none of the climbers are absolutley flying, but they could have been just keeping their powder dry for tonight's stage. He can climb, but wouldn't be one of the best here on a climb as long and as hard as this. He may struggle I think if the Colombians start fighting it out

Ladbrokes have Nibali the 5/1 second favourite, I can't have that, I think he is there for training and to support Lopez. He will be close, but I am not sure he'll be in the front group. Lopez on the other hand is looking strong and frisky, showed no ill effects from his crash the day before, taking 10th on the stage, even attacking inside the last few kilometres. If he wants to win this race, he will need to take time back on Quintana - winning the stage will give him 10" bonus so there's a big incentive to hang on to Quintana's wheel and try to outsprint him if it's just two or three come to the line together.

Rodrigo Contreras is riding high in 4th place, I'm hoping he can hang in there today and move on to a podium spot as we are on at 40/1 for the overall. On this stage last year he finished 6th but was a minute behind Quintana. He will have to do a lot better than that this year if he has hopes of a podium place. He's 25/1, that is about right, I'm not tempted though. It was interesting to see a quote from Gaviria after yesterday's stage though, he said "Tomorrow will be a day of training for me. At Etixx, we will bet on Contreras.” Rafal Majka finished in the third group on the road, the same one as Diaz, so it may be that, as I suspected, he is on a training trip and not much else (actually, I have just read now that he had a mechanical on the final climb, so hard to know how he really was going). He's only 16/1 for the stage, no interest in that at all for me.

Sepulveda, Godoy, Moyano and Brajkovic could all be involved, but one that caught my eye was Dani Moreno at 20/1. He might be able to hang in there with the climbers and if it does come down to a select sprint he would have a chance against these climbers. He could also attack late in the stage if the others are marking Quintana, it's about the only thing that appeals to me in the market. Lopez has a good chance too, but a bit risky at just 13/2.

 

 Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Dani Moreno at 20/1 with Ladbrokes

 

Stage Profile

Cerro El Amago Climb

 

Stage 5 

Stage 5 - Renca to Juana Koslay, 168.7kms

Friday 22nd January 2016

Eduardo Sepulveda - why do you go and win the day after I picked you to win stage 3?! It's like Gerrans - I picked him for stage 3 in the TDU, he wins stage 4 too! Based on that , Dani Moreno wins tomorrow's stage and Gerrans wins on Willunga..! It was a fast and furious and at times hugely confusing finish to the stage, with Dayer Quintana attacking, getting a gap, Acevedo joining him, then out of nowhere Eduardo Sepulveda passed them both and quickly built up a lead of a minute. Nibali was dropped, Lopez, Nairo, Contreras and Majka were in a small group chasing. Sepulveda is now the new leader with Dayer 3" behind, then our man Contreras is now up to 3rd, 38" back. All to play for then still, Nairo isn't out of it either, he's just 4" behind Contreras with Lopez in 5th, 51" back. It turns out that Dayer attacked with the plan being that Nairo was to bridge up to him and then attack for the stage win, but it didn't work out as planned. Nairo said though that they will try the same thing on Saturday on the stage to Comechingones. 

The fifth stage takes them on a flatish run over 168.7kms, for what is likely to be another sprint finish in the often-used town of Juana Koslay. Last year, stage 3 was from Concarán to Juana Coslay, over 176kms, but the finish was the same as this stage, up the hill of Ave. Tte. Juan d. Peron. It's a tricky finish to get right, it drags up at about 2% gradient for the last 3kms, rising all the way to the line. Go too soon and you risk running out of steam, go too late and you may not be able to catch the front-runners. 

Last year Etixx-QS screwed up the lead-out for Mark Cavendish, labouring on the left hand side of the road as the Colombian team sweeped to the front to deliver Fernando Gaviria with about 300m to go and the young Colombian did the rest, with a superb burst of speed that held off the chasing, and highly irritated Cavendish. 

With no Cavendish here this year, Gaviria looks like he is the man to beat, now with the powerhouse squad of Etixx behind him. Tom Boonen was lead-out for Cavendish in San Luis before, and he was supposed to be riding here again this year but has changed plans. Instead, Gaviria will have the assistance of Maximiliano Richeze, an experienced former sprinter, now turned lead-out man. He'll need the diesel power of Vandenbergh to get him in a good position with 1km to go and then Richeze will have to take over for 700m or so to deliver him for his trademark long sprint.

Update - 22/01, 16:00: Gaviria is the man to beat here, he was just far too good in the sprint on stage 2. Etixx did a good job to help pull back the break who looked like they were going to steal the stage and Gaviria did the rest. Sagan came very close to landing his first win in the World Champion stripes, pipping Sagan for 2nd. They were the top 3 in the betting on stage 2, I would think it will be the same for this stage, I'm guessing 10/11 (FG), 3/1 (EV), 4/1 (PS). So not a lot of value there again.

Mauro Richeze came close for us on stage 6, he started his sprint too far back but finished strongly and almost lunged in to a place. Then on stage 3 he was strong enough to be part of the lead group, and actually led out the sprint in to the last 10m and looked like he had 'won' the sprint before he was passed by Gaviria, McCabe and Sagan right on the line. If he can time it a bit better today and sits on Gaviria or Sagan's wheel, he might just be able to finally land a podium spot at 33/1

Eduard Grosu also did well on stage 2, sprinting to 4th place, but lost 7 minutes on stage 3. Hxe should be ok to stay with them today so could come close again. Jason Lowndes and Travis McCabe have also been sprinting well but I can't see them breaking in to the top 3. 

Now that the prices are out, I was pretty close with Gaviria offered at 11/10 with Ladbrokes. He should win it again, but 11/10 is a bit short, Viviani and Sagan will probably fight it out for 2nd and 3rd, but I'm hoping Mauro Richeze can get closer this time. Viviani at 8/1 will tempt some each way though I would imagine, it's bigger than what I expected. 

Recommendation

0.5pts each-way on Mauro Richeze at 33/1 with Ladbrokes

Stage Profile

Last 3kms Profile

 

Stage 6 

Stage 6 - La Toma - Merlo - Filo Sierras Comechingones, 159.5kms

Saturday 23rd January 2016

Chaos reigned in the 5th stage in San Luis when a massive crash took almost half the peloton down. It looked like Malori, who was at the very front of the peloton, hit a hole in the road and his bike just flipped in the air and caused carnage behind him. Malori lay unconcious in the road with a head wound and has been taken to hospital tonight. Lots of other riders were injured in the crash, we're still getting news of who's hurt and who's not. 

It was a disaster for our man Contreras though, he injured his knee in the crash with a number of puncture wounds around the knee. He was taken to hospital last night and got 15 stitches but it was announced today that he is not going to be able to continue, which is a great shame. It was worse for Fernando Gaviria who broke a bone in his arm in the crash and won't be starting either. The small bit of good news today though is that Malori is concious in hospital and responding to his name but they are keeping him under observation.   

Race leader Eduardo Sepulveda also came down in the crash and hurt both knees (right). Nairo Quintana, Lawson Craddock, Andre Cardoso and Max Richeze also came down, Max Richeze hobbled to hospital with an injured hip. Dani Moreno also seems to have injured his hip, he finished more than 10 minutes down. Dayer Quintana stayed on his bike and must be feeling good about giving it a crack tomorrow. 

It looks like Lopez escaped the carnage, but his team-mates didn't - Kozhatayev, Valerio Agnoli, Eros Capecchi and Michele Scarponi all crashed, with Scarponi suffering a contused, lacerated wound on a finger on his left hand. 

The penultimate stage will be the decisive one - with a finish that's far tougher than the 4th stage to Cerro Del Amago. It's the same finish as stage 6 last year, but a far longer stage at 159.5kms versus 117kms in the same stage last year. The route takes them from La Toma to Merlo and finishes at the top of the Filo Sierras Comechingones again.

The first 90kms are flat to downhill, before the road starts to climb for the next 20kms to the uncategorised climb to Villa Larca. After descending for another 29kms to Merlo, the road kicks up in three sections, as they climb for the final 17kms of the stage. First up they hit the short Cat 3 climb to Balnerario Del Rincon, a 4.3km drag at just 3.1% to get them warmed up.. Then it's straight on to the Cat 1 climb to the Mirador del Sol, a longer and steeper climb at 8.7% over 5.6kms and finally they hit the climb to the finish at Filo Sierras Comechingones, a harder 7.5kms at 9.2% gradient. It's a tough finish to the stage that gets tougher the further up the mountain they climb. The road twists and turns quite a lot on the final climb but straightens up for the last kilometre. 

Last year we had another South American 'unknown' in Ramos Kleber, team-mate of Dani Diaz who won the stage, but there were riders all over the road, Torres was 2" back, Diaz 6" back, Quintana 15" back and Moreno 17" back. When they rode this stage in 2014 they finished lower down on the Mirador Del Sol and Arredondo won it (gifted by Quintana who finished 3rd) and in 2013 Alberto Contador beat Dani Diaz to the same lower finish. From what I can make out, it's the highest finish they have ever had in the Tour de San Luis, so should be quite a duel for the stage and possibly for the overall victory also. 

It's going to be hard to know just how many were affected by the crash and how badly injured the various riders are. As a result, this stage is an absolute minefield, as is the overall winner market. Sepulveda could be injurd, Nairo could be injured, but it seems like he escaped injury, just was held up. Contreras is out of the race. It leaves only Lopez and Dayer Quintana out of the top 5 who are not injured, so we could see it fought out amongst the two of them if the others are suffering. 

Dayer looked good on Stage 4, but the plan was for Dayer to attack and for Nairo to bridge up to him, but it didn't work out that way. Nairo wasn't able to shake off the guys he was with and then Sepulveda raced up and past the leaders. Can he do something similar? Can he break away again and put them all under pressure, forcing them to chase and setting up Nairo for the steeper later sections? Nairo is joint 3/1 favourite with Lopez of Astana, and if I was to choose between the two of them. He looked marginally the sharper at the finish of stage 4, I think Lopez might be marginally my favourite as the Movistar team got such a beating yesterday. 

Rodolfo Torres is 13/2 3rd favourite and he finished just 4" behind Lopez, Quintana and Majka on Stage 4. He finished 2nd on this stage last year and likes this sort of climb. He also seems to have escaped yesterday and being only 1" off the top ten he will be keen to try to move up. The team are pretty lightweight but then again he is used to riding with a pretty lightweight team and he did alright last year. 

Sepulveda is 10/1 and I don't think I will be backing him for today's stage. Two injured knees from the crash might impare him, and even if not, he'll be under attack from all sides and under pressure to defend his lead. He wasn't able to stay with the likes of Torres and Quintana last year, finishing 20" behind Torres in 6th place. 

Rafal Majka surprised me on stage 4, he rode better than I expected. He seems to have escaped the carnage and with all eyes on the likes of the Quintanas and Sepulveda he might be able to slip away. I think he will follow wheels though and come in in the top 5 or so, but maybe not win it. Dani Moreno is injured, Nibali is not there to push himself too hard.. 

There are some of course down below that could come and surprise, the likes of Godoy, Moyano, Cardoso and others who could get in a long break that could steal it if the favourites ride for the GC, watching each other. Not a stage to get heavily involved in, Lopez might take it, but at the prices, Torres each-way might be worth a small bet.

Recommendation

0.5pts each-way on Rodolfo Torres at 13/2 with Ladbrokes 

 

 

Stage Profile

Final Three Climbs

Finish 

  

Stage 7 

Stage 7 - San Luis to San Luis, 119.6kms

Sunday 24th January 2016

A new circuit for the final stage of the race, a short stage at just 119.6kms. It consists of an opening stretch where they climb up to the Cat 3 climb of Alto Los Puquios after just 16kms, run along a plateau for 10kms or so, then drop down to pass the finish line in San Luis for the first time after 34.6kms. They then do five laps of a 17kms circuit, which is mostly flat but does rise up a little around half way around. The finish is on a downhill stretch, so it is bound to be a fast sprinters stage to finish the race. Don't expect the GC to change on this stage, unless it's incredibly close going in to it or there is an accident or incident of some sort. 

With Gaviria out, this looks like it's going to be a 2-way battle for the win between Sagan and Viviani. It looks like Sagan backed off on stage 5 after the crash and didn't contest the sprint, he finished way down the field. It doesn't look like he was affected by the crash, at least that's what the Tinkoff team were saying, so it's strange he wasn't competing. Maybe he just eased up when it was just 4th place they were sprinting for. 

Viviani on the other hand was still going for it, winning the sprint for 4th from Haedo, Grosu and Cimolai. I was a little worried about Viviani coming in to this race riding for the Italia squad, but he has looked sharp and up for it. I think he will be going all out to try to leave the race with a win for the squad. 

Lucas Haedo was 5th in stage 2 and 5th on stage 5, or 3rd place in the sprint. He likes a criterium type race, he had some good results on the US circuit last year, including a stage win in the Tour of the Gila. He won a stage of this race way back in 2009, when it was a pretty low-quality field, but the 32-year old seems to be close to his best form at the moment. He was closest to Vivani in that sprint, at one point was alongside but faded just in the last 30m.

Eduard Michael Grosu was a rider I was tipping up in the Giro last year, but he just couldn't show the talent that he undoubtably has. He has started this season well though and is going to be one of my riders to watch this year. He took 4th on stage 2 and 3rd in the sprint on stage 5, where he had to do a lot of weaving and diving to get past the fading riders and looked to be finishing the fastest as they hit the line. I'm hoping he can take a podium here at worst. Grega Bole seems to be going well, he took 10th on that stage 5 sprint, he will help Grosu, as will Stacchioti.

Finally, I want to give Mauro Richeze one last chance.. I've given my reasons already why I think he has a good result in him, I'll kick myself if he goes and gets a result and I don't have a small bet on him.

So it's likely to be Viviani who will take this final stage, but I'm hoping Grosu and Richeze can run him close.   

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