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Published on Sunday, 06 September 2015 23:05

Vuelta Stage 16

Luarca to Ermita de Alba

Mon 7th September, 185kms 

The graphic on the left is probably too small to read, so make sure you check it out in larger form below... Suffices to say that the final climb on tomorrow's stage is an absolute beast. With around 3kms to go the climb starts hitting sections of 19%, 22%, 24% and in the final 500m hit gradients of up to 30%! 

It's going to be an incredibly hard finish to a very hard day - seven categorised climbs and lots more lumps that are not categorised, over 185kms, 50kms more than the hard stage in Andorra. The stage start climbing right from the flag drop, so expect a strong break to go from early in the stage, a break that might make it all the way. 

Another crazy stage today saw the lead almost change hands, with Dumoulin doing brilliantly to limit his losses and hang on to his lead by just 1". Rodriguez was too strong on the steeper slopes than all of the rest, it was quite a dramatic last 2kms - Quintana looked to be going ok, even attacking with 10kms to go, but as Rodriguez piled on the pressure Quintana suddenly sat down, pulled over, and Purito was gone. I've been saying Rodriguez was being priced ridiculously short, I would not have backed him again today at just 5/1. I said to someone today that I'd much rather be on Moreno at 40/1 than Purito at 5/1, and as it turned out, that bet would have returned more profit than backing Purito as Moreno nabbed 3rd on the stage. 

Majka rode well also to take 3rd ahead of Quintana who recovered towards the top of the climb, I think Quintana maybe should not have tried to go with Rodriguez when he accelerated and instead rode his own pace, he did a lot better once he settled back in to his own pace. Bart de Clercq rode very well today too to finish 13th, not far off the leaders, he seems to be getting stronger as the week goes on. Lots of riders seems to have dropped off today on the final climb to possibly save energy for tomorrow, I expect a big battle to get in the break of the day and a real battle beween the break and the GC guys towards the end of the stage. 

So it's still all to play for and very hard to pick the winner. Aru has drifted from 2/5 to evens now to win the race and he knows he needs more time on Dumoulin going in to the time trial. Dumoulin could lose more time tomorrow on the brutal finish to the race, but also he has put a lot of effort in to the race so far, will he be able to deliver as powerful a time trial he might otherwise have done had this TT been at the start of the Vuelta? Rodriguez is a big danger now and could take a lot more time tomorrow from Dumoulin and possibly some time from Aru as well, but he isn't the best time triallist either. Majka lurks in the wings, but who knows how he will do in the TT, it could be great, it could be awful. Aru still looks like the most likely winner, I think he will do ok versus Rodriguez tomorrow on a longer climb like this one and should do slightly better than Rodriguez in the TT, I expect Dumoulin to lose over a minute tomorrow and might just put the race beyond him.  

The Route

Climbing straight from the start with the Cat 3 Alto de Aristebano, a very long climb to start the stage at 14.6kms, but averages just 3.4%. It should see a decent break of strong climbers get away early on and they could build up a big lead quite quickly. 

This is followed by a couple of uncategorised hills, then after 32kms they start on the second climb of the day, the Alto de Piedratecha, a 10.6kms drag at 4.8% average. They then descend gently for about 20kms, then dive down to the valley again to get over a small Cat 3 climb, the Alto de Cabrunana, short at just 4.8kms, but a bit steeper at 6.7% average. 

30kms and it's yet another climb, the Cat 2 Alto de Tenebredo, the shortest climb on the day at just 3.7kms, but the steepest one of the stage so far with an average of 8.9kms. The summit comes with just 65kms to go and after a twisty, tricky descent they spend around 10kms on the flat before the ascent of the next Cat 2 climb the Alto del Cordal starts after 141.5kms. The Cordal is 8.5kms at 5.7% average and tops out with just 35kms to go. 

The hardest part of the stage is yet to come though with two really hard climbs to finish the stage. First up is the Alto de la Cobertoria which starts with 156kms gone, a cat 1 climb of 9.8kms at an average of 8.7%. They continue heading west on a very twisty and dangerous descent before starting on the final climb of the day to the summit finish. The Alto Ermita de Alba has never been used in the Vuelta before but it is sure to be a killer - it's not overly long at 6.8kms, but it averages a back-breaking 11.1%. But that doesn't tell the full story of the climb - as it winds its way around the mountain it hits some incredibly steep gradients - 19%, 22%, 23%, 24% as they wind through the swtichbacks. And it just gets harder as the stage finishes the last 600m average 15.5% and it hits 30% on one of the bends. It's going to be a crawl to the line, not a sprint, that's for sure. 

Contenders and Favourites

I'm looking for some strong break candidates tomorrow who I think have been saving themselves for this race and I've been backing already before this. Joe Dombrowski rolled in today with Ben King 16 minutes down, I think he will fancy a go in this stage tomorrow to try to get in the break and grind it out on climbs that are more his style. 40/1 with Bet365 is alright. Cardoso is going well in the GC, sitting in 17th, Dombrowski might be on babysitting duties, but I think they will give him a chance to do something on the final summit finish of the race.

Rodolfo Torres took it easy today too, I think he will be trying to get in the break tomorrow, other Colombia guys have been getting in the break, I think it's about time he gave it a go now, he would go well on this final climb I think. 33/1 with Ladbrokes. 

Bart de Clercq is riding very well and wants to make up some time in the GC - he sits in 16th place at the moment. He finished strongly today in 13th, if he gets in a break that is fighting out the finish he will be hard to beat. 40/1 with Sportingbet. I picked Durasek and Monfort today and they both got in the first break of the day with Chavanel and about 9 other guys but only ever got about 15" and were reeled in again before the final break eventually got away. I wouldn't be surprised if they tried again tomorrow, Monfort is 300/1 with Ladbrokes, Durasek is 125/1 with Bet365. 

I might be mad picking this one, but Frank Schleck has been doing pretty good of late, but took it easy today and rolled in with a big bunch 17 minutes down with the likes of Durasek, Duque, Van den Broeck and about 50 other guys. He has been saying he is keen to get in a break but the flatter starts don't suit him, a start with a climb like this might work better for him. 66/1 with Ladbrokes.

Jerome Coppell and Larry Warbasse have been saying they want to attack, Warbasse attacked at the start of stage 14 but had an asthma attack and had to knock it back, he says he is going to try again. He looks a bit short at 66/1 though. Jerome Cousin or Mikael Cherel could also try too. 

The main reason the break might make it is that there is probably no one really wants to chase over all those hills but instead maybe let the GC men fight it out over the last two climbs. If that's the case, the break might just have enough time to make it. Katusha will not want to make it too hard as Purito will like the steep finish but will not like it if the pace is too high on the final two climbs. He could do with the time bonuses, but they might let the chasing up to others, and if the gap looks too big they might just let it go. Movistar might not chase as Quintana looks ok, but obviously still not at 100%. He made a mistake today I think by attacking too early and then chasing Purito, but if he can save energy tomorrow, a long stage like this with lots of climbing rather than a 3km sprint should suit him a lot better. So Movistar might just ride tempo but not too hard, the Cat 1 will thin out the peloton enough ahead of the final climb. 

Sky have no need to chase, nor have Tinkoff either, unless Majka fancies the stage. He is riding well at the moment, took a good 3rd place today, pulling away from Aru and Quintana, two riders at different times in the last few days we thought were the best climbers in the race. He should like this finish and might attack in the earlier slopes of the final climb and try to hang on in the last hard 3 kilometres. He looks an ok bet to me at 8/1 if you think the favourites will fight it out, he seems to be pretty consistent and strong and his team might just deliver him in a good position to attack. 

Daniel Moreno was excellent today taking the 3rd place, he goes well on steep gradients, but will he be let do anything? They can't afford to have him take bonus seconds off of Purito so he won't be finishing in front of him unless Purito is on a bad day. He could chase him home though, but 25/1 is a little short now, the 40/1 was much better today. 

So that's it, the final mountain finish in a tough three days. What sort of performance can we expect from all the main protagonists is hard to know, Quintana could be back to his best and skip away from them all or he could struggle to stay with the likes of Purito if he isn't 100% again. Aru looks to be on his limit at the moment, I'm not sure he'll cope with these gradients so well. It's a really hard one to call, it all depends on how Purito feels on this final climb - if he is not too fatigued from the earlier parts of the stage he should win this, if he repeats today's performance. 

I'm going to plump for some small bets on the break guys though and see how the stage pans out, I might back Majka in-play. 

Recommendations -

0.2pts win on Maxime Monfort at 300/1 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts each-way on Rodolfo Torres at 33/1 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts win on Bart de Clerq at 40/1 with Sportingbet

0.2pts win on Frank Schleck at 66/1 with Ladbrokes

0.2pts win on Kristijan Durasek at 125/1 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts each-way on Joe Dombrowski at 40/1 with Bet365 

Matchbets

Torres to beat Cano - 1.5pts at evens

De Clerq to beat Elissonde - 2pts at 8/11

Schleck to beat Duarte - 3.5pts at 4/7

Moreno to beat Chaves - 1pt at 4/6