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- Published on Monday, 19 January 2015 00:03
The ninth running of the Tour de San Luis starts on Monday afternoon in Argentina. A race that was once dominated by the locals, the race has grown in importance and popularity in the last few years to now see the season launch for the likes of Giro Champion Nairo Quintana, World Champion Michal Kwiatkowski and Mark Cavendish.
Nairo Quintana was the winner in 2014 though, winning a stage along the way (and gifted one annoyingly to Arredondo) as well as taking 2 3rd places. Star of the race though was Phil Gaimon, who won the first stage, and by virtue of the time gained against the favourites and thanks to a very gutsy display he managed to hold on to 2nd position to land an unlikely podium. I did take a punt on him after the second stage when he was still 14/1 despite having over 4 minutes on the pre-race favourites, that paid out on the place with his podium finish.
There's a handful of World Tour teams, led by Movistar and Etixx-Quickstep, some Pro Continental teams like United Healthcare and Bretagne-Seche Environment, and the rest of the field are made up of local teams like Team Argentina and Buenos Aires Provencia. Last year one of the locals managed to claim a podium spot when Sergio Godoy took 3rd place, but the locals tend to do well generally here, with 5 out of the first runnings being won by South Americans, 4 Argentinian and 1 Chilean. In between Vincenzo Nibali and Levi Leipheimer took a win too.
2014 Podium
| Rider | Team | Classification | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nairo Quintana (COL) | Movistar Team | 24h 48min 48s |
| 1 | Phillip Gaimon (USA) | Garmin Sharp | at 43s |
| 3 | Sergio Godoy (ARG) | San Luis Somos Todos | at 2min 02s |
The Route
The route covers 948.2kms of mixed terrain and includes 2 stages for the sprinters (1 and 7), 3 summit finishes (2, 4 and 6), a 17km Time Trial (stage 5) and a rolling stage with an uphill finish (stage 3). The three summit finish stages will probably decide this race rather than the Time Trial, but it could be important all the same should a few big names stick close together on the climbs.
Stage 1
Stage 1 - San Luis to Villa Mercedes, 186.8kms
Monday 19th January 2015
Either the mappers have smoothed out the kinks in the road quite a bit for the official maps, or they have the straightest roads in the world in San Luis! The race starts with a bang with a climb straight from the first kilometre of the race, climbing a 3rd Cat climb to a height of 1010m after just 18kms. From there the stage is going to be extremely fast as it is downhill for over 100kms, passing two intermediate sprints along the way. It starts to climb a little inside the last 60kms, but nothing major and it should end in a sprint finish in Villa Mercedes.
There are two right hand turns with 1400 and 1300m to go but once they are around the tighter of the two the Flamme Rouge comes up fast and it's a straight, slightly downhill finish which should see a very fast sprint finish.
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Last 3kms
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Stage 2
Stage 2 - La Punta to Mirador Del Potrero, 185.3kms
Tuesday 20th January 2015
The first real challenge of the race with the summit finish up to Mirador Del Potrero on an exact replica of stage 2 last year. Along the way they crest a Cat 3 climb of the Alto de La Florida but it really is only a speed bump compared to the final climb.
The final climb up to Mirador Del Potrero is a tough finish to the day, with the categorised part covering nearly 5kms at an average of 6.7%, with the last kilometre averaging 7.5%. The climb is twisty and gets really steep as they approach the finish line. Julian Arredondo won the stage from a three man group from Sergio Godoy and an apparently ill Nairo Quintana.. it looked to me like Quintana didn't even try to sprint for the stage, whether it was gifted to Arredondo or he just had nothing left it's hard to say. It's not the hardest of climbs in the world though and is climbed at a pretty high speed.
You'd have to think that Quintana should be way too strong on this climb for his rivals here, but some that were right up there near the top on the stage last year are back again. Danielson (who was babysitting Gaimon), Godoy, Rubiano, Sepulveda, and there's also the likes of Betancur, Niemiec, Dani Moreno, Losada, Diaz and Duque here who should be right up there too. It's hard to know who is going to be going well, is fired up and fit, but if Quintana is in reasonably good shape he should come close to winning this. It will be interesting to see just how fit fat-boy Betancur will be, after a disastrous 2014, he claims to be in great shape after a good winter training.
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Last 4.8kms
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Stage 3
Stage 3 - Concarán to San Luis, 176.3kms
Wednesday 21st January 2015
Stage 2 was won in devastating fashion by Daniel Diaz, who soloed away from Adolfo Torres in the last kilometre, with Speulveda back in 4th, Dani Moreno in 5th and Nairo Quintana back in 7th, 27" back. It was a very quick finish by Diaz who climbed the final climb a minute faster than Arredondo did in 2014.
Stage 3 is a fairly non-descript stage that heads south west from Concarán to San Luis with a rolling profile and an uphill finish to Juana Koslay. The last 3kms rises at an average of 1.8% but the last kilometre kicks up a little bit more on the run to the line. There is a roundabout to navigate as they hit the 1km to go mark, but after that it's a very straight run to the line. On this finish last year Giacomo Nizzolo out sprinted Ventoso, Boonen, Farrar and Appalonio on the uphill finish.
It was a finish which saw Mark Cavendish lead out for Tom Boonen inside the last kilometre who took 3rd, landing the each-way odds for me at 12/1 (Ventoso also landing the 16/1 each-way with 2nd) but with no Boonen this year it will be interesting to see if Cav leads out for Kwiatkowski on a finish that suits the Pole more than the Manxman. Richeze, Modolo and Hutarovich should be in the mix at the finish also.
It has been hard to bet on this year's race for me, the bookies are only opening their books for a couple of hours in the middle of the day - today for example I didn't get a chance to have a bet on the stage, but did take 3pts on Nairo Quintana to win the GC at 11/10 with Ladbrokes. I'll try to catch the stage betting tomorrow when it's open and will try to post up a pick or two if I can but can't guarantee it!
My shortlist would probably include Kwiatkowski, Modolo, Finetto, Hutarovich and Oscar Gatto.
BetVictor posted up some odds today and had Cav as the 9/4 favourite, Modolo at 7/4 and Stage 1 winner Gaviria at just 4/1.. None of the bookies priced up stage 1 and they missed out on a bonanza as Gaviria would have been a 50/1 shot I reckon with Cav probably odds-on.. I'm not sure BV have got this one right though with Cav so short. Last year he decided that the finish wasn't for him before the stage and they agreed to try to set up Boonen, a tactic that almost paid off.. it was bizarre to see Cav going full blast at the front of the peloton in the last kilometre!
I am wondering if it will be something similar this year, but in place of Boonen they have Kwiatkowski who can perform well on uphill sprints. At 25/1, he is worth a small bet each way I think based on that rationale. Of course I may be wrong, and having ridden it last year Cav might have reconsidered his ability to get up the hill against this year's opposition, but I think it's worth a go.
It will be interesting to see how Gaviria goes now the cat is out the bag with him, 4/1 is far too short though to be taking a punt that he can win 2 out of 2 sprints. Yauheni Hutarovich could go well on this finish, the big Russian likes a tough sprint. Sacha Modolo and Richeze could also be involved, Richeze looks tempting at 30/1 too..
Recommendations:
0.5pts each-way on Michal Kwiatkowski at 25/1 with BetVictor.
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Stage 4
Stage 4 - Villa Dolores to Alto de El Amago, 142.5kms
Thursday 22nd January 2015
Another incredible sprint finish from Fernando Gaviria as he outfoxed and outsprinted Mark Cavendish and Sacha Modolo again to take his second victory in as many sprint stages. Etixx-Quickstep made a complete mess of the leadout leaving Cav to throw his arm in the air with frustration crossing the line. The rest of the field were all over the place but strangely over 130 riders were given the same time as the winner despite the fact there were huge gaps all over the field - even the gap between Gaviria and Cavendish was about 1" as you can see in the picture below!
This stage is 130kms of an uphill drag that should see an early break gain a sizeable advantage as they head towards the finish on Alto de El Amago. The final climb comes in two parts really, with a Cat 3 climb of the Alto de Embalse with 11kms to go and then they start on the final climb to El Amago. The final climb is 10.5kms at an average of 7.2%, with several sections averaging over 10% along the way. The KOM of the climb comes 1.9kms from the finish but the road starts to flatten out and descend a little on the run to the finish at an altitude of 1710m.
It's a narrow, bumpy climb paved with concrete but Nairo Quintana won this stage last year with a devastating burst that left Godoy, Atapuma and the rest trailing in his wake, with the closest to him, Godoy, 50" in arrears. It's hard to see any other result this time given his superiority, despite feeling a little ill 12 months ago.
I'll wait and see the prices tomorrow when they come out (they normally last only about two hours) but you'd have to assume that Quintana, Diaz, Sepulveda, Torres, Moreno, Rubiano and Godoy will be challenging for stage honours and possibly GC honours too if Quintana can win by the sort of margin he won by last year.
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Stage 5
Stage 5 - San Luis to San Luis, 17.4kms
Friday 23rd January 2015
A 17.4km Time Trial which is an out and back route along the Avenue Eva Peron that descends more or less for all of the first 9.5kms until the turn and then climbs gently on the way back to the finish at the Terrazas del Portezuelo. Adriano Malori won the TT last year over a different route by 3" from Taylor Phinney and you'd have to think he'll be coming close to victory again this year. His biggest challengers are probably going to be Jorge Giacinti of the San Luis Somos Todos squad, who took 3rd last year, Michal Kwiatkowski, Betancur, if he really is in good shape and Quintana possibly, but there's a real dearth of TT talent at the race this year.
Dani Diaz may appear to have the GC sewn up after sprinting up the climb to Cerro El Amago today, winning it in a canter from Diniz, Torres, Quintana and Sepulveda. He now holds a 1 minute lead over Torres, with Quintana sitting in 4th, 1'23" back. But if you look at the TT times from last year over 19kms, Quintana beat Diaz by almost 3 minutes, Quintana finishing in 16th place, Diaz way down in 130th. Diaz did ride better TTs in 2013 and 2012, finishing exactly 1'18" back on the winners coincidentally in both years. Quintana's time trialling is getting better whereas Diaz's appears to be getting worse, so it may not be over just yet.
I'll try to post a recommendation tomorrow if prices come available.
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Stage 6
Stage 6 - Achiras to Filo Sierras Comechingones, 117.5kms
Saturday 24th January 2015
Again, like on stage 4, it's 100kms of nothing and then a sharp, hard climb to finish the day. They ride along the valley to the sprint points at Villa Larca and Merlo before turning right and right again and to start up the climb to Filo Sierras Comechingones. This is a very tough 16kms climb at an average of 7.8%, rising to over 2100m. Along the way on the final 18kms they climb over the Cat 3 Balneario El Rincón with 13kms to go, then the Mirador del Sol with 7.5kms to go and the final run up to the finish which is the steepest part, averaging nearly 10% over the final 7kms. It's a very twisty climb with lots of switchbacks that climbs all the way to the line and will probably see a solo winner, most likely Nairo.
If the race is still in any doubt after the last two stages, this should be the stage that probably sees the winner crowned. If it is tight at the top then Quintana has to blow them all away. If it is not and he has a considerable lead then he may just sit on wheels and let the rest of them fight it out. I wouldn't be surprised to see him him still go for the stage win though and crown the overall win.
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Filo Sierras Comechingones
Finish
Stage 7
Stage 7 - San Luis to San Luis, 122.4kms
Sunday 25th January 2015
The final stage sees them do three laps of a route that takes them out to El Durazno, a climb that rises 300m over the first 24kms, then descends back to San Luis before heading back out again. The final 25kms are downhill with a downhill sprint on the dead straight Ave Del Funador. This should be Mark Cavendish's best chance of a stage win.
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Overall Contenders
I really can't see anyone beating Nairo Quintana in this - he should destroy them on the big climbs and should stay close enough in the Time Trial too to be worried over the last few stages. The only thing that could beat him would be illness again (there were quite a few got sick last year) or if a strong rival got in a break on one of the stages that built up a large lead and were not reeled in. If that happens and they manage to limit their losses on the tough climbs they might hang on. But I can't see that happening. It's Quintana's to lose as far as I'm concerned and should be a pretty confident bet.
As of tonight, Sunday, there are no prices available from any bookies which is disappointing - last year Boyles, Ladbrokes and William Hill all had prices out. Quintana was the 3/1 favourite last year and if that sort of price appears this year, I'll be all over it. I can't see him being that sort of price though and it will probably be each-way value for the podium places we might have to look for.
Kwiatkowski will find the climbs too hot for him so I'm ruling him out. Betancur was 25/1 last year, and who knows what sort of shape he really is in, but if he's going well he could well podium. The South Americans should go well again, so the likes of Godoy, Sepulveda, Rubiano could go well. Two to watch also though will be two riders riding for the Italian team, rather than their trade teams - Mauro Finetto and Enrico Battaglin. They would be two of the better climbers in the race and may well be able to serve it up to Quintana on some of the tougher stages. Finetto won the Tour du Limousin last year on a lumpy course and Battaglin won a great stage to Oropa in the Giro last year.
I'll update this again if prices come out, come back for that Monday afternoon. Hopefully we'll get some stage betting too during the week.
