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Published on Wednesday, 09 July 2014 23:30

Tour de France St. 6

Arras to Reims

Thursday July 10th, 194kms 

Where do you even begin to sum up today's stage. It's been described already as being "Epic", "Legendary" and the like - but it will be remembered for three things in particular - the sad loss of Chris Froome to a crash, Nibali's stunning performance and Lars Boom's sensational stage victory.. 

It was sad to see Chris Froome's broken figure stumble about on the road with an injured leg to add to two injured arms/hands. It's never nice to see a champion struck out of the race like that and it certainly looks now like he started with a debilitating injury to that wrist that was affecting his ability to hold the bars and control the bike. Having said that, it was a good day for the ante-post bets front you could say!

The lays of Froome to win have paid out and the Richie Porte bets at 66/1 each-way and 90s on Betfair are looking pretty good now, as my premonition that Froome wouldn't finish the race and Porte would become team leader became a reality. Also the 'mistake' of picking Contador over Froome in the KOM matchbet the other day will pay out as long as Contador just finishes!

The GC has been well and truly shaken up again though, with Nibali leading from his loyal lieutenant Fuglsang (what a brilliant job he did today). Van den Broeck is sitting nicely now in 6th place with Porte in 8th, followed by Talansky, Valverde and Bardet. Porte is in to 12/1 third favourite and JVDB is in to 33/1. Porte for top 10 at 13/8 is now 1/4 and Bardet is 9/10.

Not much luck on the stage bets, but the lay of Cancellara to come in top 3 and the match-bets limited the losses on the day to just a half a point loss - I'll take that as a losing day any day after 4 winning days in a row!

So after a crazy day on the cobbles it's back to normality again for the peloton as they head towards Reims on a mostly flat stage that should end in a bunch sprint again and with stage number 4 for Kittel. There are a few bumps along the way, but nothing really for these guys to worry about.  

The Route

They leave Arras and head pretty much in a straight line South-East to Reims and in to Champagne country. A pretty non-descript, boring opening 100kms will see the have-a-go heroes attack probably from the flag drop and there could be 3 or 4 of the usual suspects from Cofidis,  Bretagne-Seche, FDJ and Europecar involved.

After 107km they go over the wonderfully named Côte de Coucy-le-Chateau-Auffrique, a Cat 4 bump on 900m at 6.2%. The intermediate sprint comes 12km later on an uphill drag to Pinon. Expect Sagan to be out front for this again. Then with 157km gone they hit the Cote de Roucy, a Cat 4 climb of 6.2% gradient over 1.5kms. Just after that there is a little uncategorised climb to get over and from the top of that it will be a 25km run to the finish in Reims. It's pretty straightforward run in and should be a fast sprint for the sprinters. 

Contenders and Favourites

You'd have to think that this is another penalty kick for Marcel Kittel - clearly the best sprinter by a mile in the race, but can he make it 4 sprint victories? Naturally he is very short for the victory at 8/13 best price (1.62) but he is a bit bigger on Betfair at 1.69 to back. I think though I will try a slightly different tactic tomorrow and lay him with a view to backing him back later on in the stage in-play. He crashed today, but seems to be ok, but the forecast is more rain for tomorrow. On Tuesday's stage his price drifted from 1.6 to over evens (2.0) because of the rain and in London I know his price drifted in play too, just not sure how far..

I think with the rain forecast, and also that a break could give this a good crack tomorrow his price should drift up around the 1.9/2.0 sort of level again and it would be a better place to reverse it and back him to win. Also it will give us an opportunity to see whether he is in any way hurt from the crash tomorrow morning!

I like the look of Alexander Kristoff tomorrow though at 12/1 - he came very close to mugging Kittel on stage 4, going early and almost holding him off. He showed super strength in that sprint and could well serve up a close fight to Kittel again who must be feeling a little tired after 5 hard days for him. Kristoff had a crash and then a mechanical and so was tailed off early on in the race. He must have taken it easy then as he rolled in some 18' down, so he was probably saving energy for today. 

Arnaud Démare was fancied by some for today's stage but I couldn't have it, I thought he would struggle in the conditions - as it turned out he finished way down in 3rd last place, rolling in at the back of a group 22' down. He crashed and couldn't get back on today but said that everything was fine.. He is a lot shorter though tomorrow than the 25/1 we backed him at on Tuesday, not sure there is value there any more. 

Sagan had a hard day today and could be feeling the effects of it tomorrow. He will get involved for some points at the finish but he may just hold back a little knowing he won't beat Kittel and save some energy for other stages that lie ahead that he will be more suited to. 

Greipel is the interesting one again though - he has had a horror show so far with the weather conditions affecting his confidence and belief, but I fear it is also masking his lack of top form that he needs to challenge the guys who have been finishing in front of him on every stage. He may just click one of these days though and can start picking up podium spots, but I think I'll wait for a confirmation signal before investing in him for now. 

There is a chance though that a break might make it today - it was a really hard day today and a lot of teams will have sore bodies from the numerous crashes and be pretty tired. As a result, some guys who took it easy today and stayed upright might give this a real go. Guys like Jeremy Roy or Jan Barta and Tom Dumoulin, who are both 500/1, Luke Durbridge or Jan Bakelants who are 400/1.. But on the balance of things, it is almost certain to result in a sprint.

Recommendations:

Lay 8pts of Marcel Kittel at 1.69 - 1.75 and look to back him back with maybe 50kms to go at 1.9-2.0 for 12 pts

Alexander Kristoff - 1pt each-way at 12/1 with Paddy Power.  

Match Bets 

Arnaud Démare to beat André Greipel - 2pts at evens with Paddy Power

Treble - Démare to beat Greipel, Van Poppel to beat JJ Rojas and Kristoff to beat Renshaw - 1pt at 3.67/1

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