Details

Published on Monday, 02 July 2018 00:12

TDF 2018 Outsiders

Can anyone stop the top 3?

I have covered the favourites to win the 2018 Tour de France in this other preview already, now let's take a look at the best of the rest to try to find someone who could pull off a shock and land the big prize. 

According to their best odds, there's a 70% chance that the winner will be either Froome, Porte or Quintana. Last year it was an 87% chance and the year before a 92% chance that the top three in the betting would win the race, so it looks like it's the most wide open race we've had in quite a while.. And when you consider that the bookies include a sizeable over-round, the chances are actually closer to 56% if you look at the Betfair market. 

So there's nearly a 50% chance of someone other than the 'top three' winning this years' Tour. And with the quality lineup of favourites I've already detailed in the 'Top Contenders' preview, together with the 'outsiders' I'm going to go through now, it's not hard to see that there is a distinct possibility of a surprise this year. 

It's not unheard of to have big shocks though, particularly in getting on to the podium, Bardet was 66/1 to win it in 2016 (and 10/1 for a podium spot) and Pinot and Peraud were huge prices to win in 2016 (I was on Pinot e/w at 150/1). Froome was a short price to win it in 2013 and there was a bit of a shock with Contador finishing off of the podium, eclipsed by Quintana and Rodriguez.

There is always a chance that someone could sneak on to a podium place, maybe thanks to a lucky breakaway and riding solidly for the rest of the race or something like that, so let's take a look at the best of the rest now..

Primoz Roglic - LottoNL Jumbo - 22/1 best price

Coud Primoz Roglic be the new kid on the block who shakes up the old guard? The LottoNL Jumbo man has all the attributes to make a bit impact on this year's race, that's for sure. He's had a pretty amazing season so far - starting with 6th overall in in Valenciana, he followed that with a disappointing run in Tirreno (more on that later), but then he started to turn on the class. 

In Itzulia he finished 2nd on three different road stages and won the ITT over a rolling 19km course, followed that with another GC win in the Tour de Romandie where he finished 3rd in the prologue and 2nd in the uphill ITT, ahead of Porte, and 2nd on the tough Sion stage where he led home a group of four behind the winner Fuglsang that included Bernal, Costa and Porte. 

He then won the Tour of Slovenia just a few weeks back with another dominant display, finishing 3rd on stage 3, soloing to a 33" victory in stage 4 and winning the 21km ITT by 27" in front of his home fans. Three week-long stage race wins in a row would suggest that he is one of the form riders of the year, but can he convert that sort of form to a three-week Tour?

Well in his first Giro two years ago he finished 58th, but he finished 2nd in the short opening TT and won the 40km rolling TT in stage 9. In 2017 he started his first TDF, but crashed in the opening TT like a number of LottoNL riders. He struggled for most of the race though, but took a stunning win on the stage to Serre Chevalier when he won solo by 1'13" from the Froome group, on a profile not too dissimilar to a lot of the stages in this years race with a tough climb followed by a long descent to the finish. He ended the race in 38th place. 

I think he will be closer than 38th this year, he is in amazing form and the TT and route in general looks more favourable to him than last year. His team should do ok in the TTT, he won't lose too much time, and he might do well on the cobbles too. But his ride in Tirreno-Adriatico worries me a bit. He lost time on nearly every single stage, and really struggled on some of the climbing stages. Ok, he lost time on stage 2 when caught up behind a crash and won the next stage brilliantly with a powerful attack, but he struggled on the following hilly stages.

He also lost a lot of time on a number of the mountain stages in last years Tour, such as La Planche des Belles Filles (3'25"), Station des Rousses (20'56") and Peyragudes (13'01") and to me, that is a real concern if you were thinking of backing him for this overall - he just doesn't have the experience and miles in Grand Tours I think to be able to break in to the top 6, let alone top 3.     

Adam Yates - Mitchelton Scott - 20/1 best price

Another interesting one who has had a pretty solid year so far, with twelve top 6 finishes on races and two wins thrown in too. 4th in Valenciana, 5th in Tirreno, crashed out of Catalunya when he broke his pelvis, returns in Tour of California to finish 4th overall and then went to the Dauphiné where he finished a superb 2nd behind Thomas, capping his great week with a stage win on Saint Gervais Mont Blanc. 

He was also right up there with the leaders on the stage to La Rosiere that features in the Tour, finishing 5" behind Thomas. He was 9th in the Giro last year, but struggled in the Vuelta and finished down in 34th, but he had been riding for Chaves who had been in a podium place up until stage 13. 4th in only his second Tour de France in 2016, just 21" off Quintana's podium spot, he also won the Young Riders jersey that year. 

Mitchelton Scott have full confidence in his GC chances here, so much so that they have built their team around him, to the detriment of Caleb Ewan who has been left behind. Matthew Hayman, Jack Bauer, Luke Durbridge to look after him on the flatter stages and the cobbles, Mikel Nieve, Daryl Impey, Damian Howson and Michael Hepburn on the hillier stages. 

His form in the Dauphiné was very impressive, his win when he broke Dani Navarro's heart with 50m to go was pretty special, he just launched out of the pack and no-one could go with him. He's going to need luck in the first week I think, his team will do ok in the TTT, but will still probably lose 30-60" to the better teams and he will not do as well as the best in the final TT.. so he will have to attack, and that's what could be one of the little side-shows that could add so much drama to this race - the likes of Yates, Landa, Fuglsang, Roglic attacking at random. 

Alejandro Valverde - Movistar - 25/1 best price

Lieutenant de-luxe for Landa and Quintana, or rogue agent that goes and does his own thing? He is saying he is happy to ride in support of the team orders, but when have we ever seen Alejandro Valverde give up a chance to shake things up? 

Like most other years, Valverde has been winning almost every stage race he entered this year, starting with a win in Valenciana (and two stage wins), followed by a win in Adu Dhabi (one stage win) and a win in Catalunya (two stage wins). 

Winner of the GP Miguel Indurain, 2nd in Amorbieta, 5th in Amstel Gold, 2nd in La Fleche Wallone and winner of the Route d'Occitanie (a win in the fog on top of Les Monts d'Olmes and 2nd the next day.. and then 4th in the Spanish Nationals ITT and 2nd in the Road Race.. Phew.. it's tiring just writing out everything he has done this year.. 

There are a number of stages where he will fancy his chances, the Mur de Bretagne maybe is one, but he was unable to go after Vuillermoz and Martin last time, although he had different goals that time, and found himself boxed in. The uphill finishes on some of the hillier stages suit him as well, expect to see him getting involved in the likes of stages 5, 6, 17 and more. And I do think that he will be riding for Landa and Quintana, but they'll give him the opportunity to go for stage wins when the opportunity arises. 

Rigoberto Uran - EF Drapac Cannondale - 40/1 best price 

40/1 for the man who finished 2nd last year? 40/1 for a man who comes here after a fine 2nd place in the Tour of Slovenia, helped by a stage win where he rode with all his famous cunning and nous. He will do ok in the TTT, middle of the pack sort of time probably, and will do ok in the final ITT, remember he finshed 8th in the final TT in Marseille last year and this is far more up his street this year.  

Sep Vanmarcke will be a fantastic help for him on stage 9 to Roubaix, there aren't many better than him over the cobbles, and don't forget that Taylor Phinney finished in the top 10 in Paris-Roubaix this year too. Pierre Rolland and possibly Daniel Moreno will be there to help him on the mountain stages, and you just know he'll be there or thereabouts in all the mountain stages, he just seems very hard to shake off. 

Winner of that amazing stage to Chambery last year, even with his gears stuck in one gear, he also finished 2nd on the Peyragues and Serre Chevalier finishes, leading the pack home after the solo winner Roglic. He may well come in to the first rest day in a better position than a lot of the other GC men, but It's hard to see him make the jump up to win this, I think he will be isolated in the important moments of all the key mountain stages later in the race. 

You can back him around 60/1 on Betfair though, he might be a 'back to lay' bet as I think he will trade a lot shorter and you might be able to get out around 10 or 15/1 at the end of the first week.  

Daniel Martin - UAE Team Emirates - Best odds 50/1

Hard to know what to make of a price of 50/1 for Dan Martin, he finished 6th last year, despite riding a lot of the race with a broken back and lots of cuts and bruises after crashing with Richie Porte on the descent off the Mont du Chat on stage 9. He will struggle big time in the TTT, his team are rubbish, and he'll lose time in the final TT also, as he's not great at TTs himself. 

But he should still have a lot of fun during this race I think, he showed good legs in the Dauphiné in taking his first win since February 2017 and he also took a 2nd, 3rd and 6th on the key mountain stages.

I think he will fancy his chances on a number of stages, starting with the Mur de Bretagne, but there are also some mountain stages that he'll have his eye on too I think, particularly the uphill finish in Quimper, stage 11 with the finish to La Rosiere where he finished 3rd in the Dauphiné, possibly Alpe d'Huez, stage 14 to Mende, stage 17 and stage 19. 

If he didn't lose so much time on the TTs, and manages to stay with the main GC men on the cobbles to Roubaix, then Martin might actually have a good chance of a top 6 finish again. His 9th place in 2016 had been his best result in a Grand Tour up until last year, he stepped up to 6th last year, can he move even higher this year?

Egan Bernal - Team Sky - Best odds 40/1

A phenomenon. It seems this is the most popular word to describe him, and it would seem to be justified on what we've seen so far in just his first full season on the World Tour. He started the year with 6th in the Tour down under in January, with a 5th place finish on Willunga, also taking the young riders prize.

Winner of the Colombian nationals TT, winner of Colombia Ora y Paz, he crashed out on the descent in the final stage in Barcelona when in 2nd place of the Volta a Catalunya, 2nd place in Romandie thanks to a spectacular win in the uphill TT, beating Richie Porte and Primoz Roglic, and winner of the Tour of California with two crushing wins in the toughest uphill finishes, winning the second one by 1'28" from Adam Yates. 

It has been, by any standards, an incredible year so far, yet alone for a 21-year old in his first year in the WT. And here he is at 21 starting his first TDF, two years younger than when Nairo Quintana made his TDF debut. He could be anything in this race, Sky might let him off the leash and see how he gets on, but also they will be mindful of looking after someone so young in such a hard race. He may well find himself down the field after the opening 9 stages, giving him a chance to attack in the Alps, and then maybe withdraw later in the race having gained some excellent experience.

But they might also reign him in, as is Sky's way most of the time, and put him in the Skytrain in the services of Froome.. If he is to go for the GC in this race, he will either have to ride away from everyone including his own team-mates to such an extent that they get behind his challenge too, or something will have to happen to both Froome and Thomas. 

I genuinely can't wait to see him in action in this race, he could light up a number of stages, and if he's still in contention in the final TT he could do very well in that too. If he is still there, and has managed to do as well as I think he could in the mountains, then he is very capable of finishing in the top 10 of his first ever Grand Tour. But a top 3 finish is just a bit too much to ask I think. 

Others?

I've already named 14 riders who could possibly win this race or finish in the top three and there are so many other super riders in this race, it feels weird calling some of these guys others on an outsiders list.. Riders like Ilnur Zakarin who finished 3rd in last year's Vuelta and 5th in the Giro and leads Katusha in this race. Winner of the Tour de Romandie two years ago, he has had a disappointing season by his standards, and has not raced very much this year (just 4,300kms over 30 days) but his whole season has been geared around the Tour.

He did start to show some form in the Dauphiné with a 10th place finish, but he did lose a minute to Thomas, Bardet and Martin on the Rosiere finish, that sort of form in the Tour will see him finish outside the top 10. But he is 70/1 and he might have some backers to see if he can repeat his Grand Tour performances of 2017.

Steven Kruijswijk is another with a good GT record, having almost won the Giro in 2016, and who has also finished 7th and 8th in the Giro and 9th in the Vuelta, but his record in the Tour isn't as hot, 15th in 2014 was the best he has finished in three attempts. He is the supposed leader of the team though, despite the fact he is over four times the price of Roglic, and he has been putting in some pretty serious climbing miles in the build-up to this Tour, he might just surprise a few. A top 10 isn't out of the question. 

Bahrain Merida also have three riders who could go very well in this race, with Giro 5th place finisher Domenico Pozzovivo, and the two Izagirre brothers, Gorka and Ion. Ion was 4th in Paris-Nice, 3rd in Itzulia, and 3rd the Spanish TT championships. He can TT, but his team can't, he can climb, but will be put to work for Nibali and he might not get the result that he is capable of. 

And Bauke Mollema - once upon at time it looked like he might be a serious GC contender for Trek-Segafredo, with TDF GC results of 6th, 10th, 7th, 11th and 17th from 2013 - 2017, coming close, but not quite good enough to break on to a podium spot. But he was a long way behind last year when 17th, over 37 minutes down, a pretty disappointing result for him given the previous four year's results. But he was riding for Contador, whereas this year, it should be all for him. That is unless they are going to ride for Pantano, but I doubt it. 

The thing is though, he's not had a bad year at all, and he won his first race since stage 15 of the Tour last year with victory in stage 2 of the Coppi e Bartali in March. But this could well be last chance saloon for Mollema, the rumours of Richie Porte coming across to T-S next year could well be the end of his chances of having a team ride for him. I think 10th to 20th again for him. 

And then you have the fancy three-figure prices for the rest, Bob Jungels, Woet Poels, Rafa Majka, Wilco Kelderman, Warren Barguil, Pierre Latour and Movistar's fourth ace-in-the-pack Marc Soler, winner of Paris-Nice this year, 3rd in Andalucia and 5th in Catalunya, the boy can climb. So many other riders who could go well, and with the way results have been going this year we could see a surprise performance.

One rider I'll be keeping an eye on is Guillaume Martin of Wanty Group Gobert, he's riding really well and could be a surprise package at a massive 500/1.. 5th in last week's French road race, he said after he was very happy with his legs and is looking forward to the Tour. 12th in the Dauphiné, he was 3rd in the young riders category and also won the Circuit Cyclist Sarthe earlier in the year. He might be one of those guys who gets in a mad break that gains a load of time and gives us a bit of fun.  

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS:

I don't think I've ever named so many contenders for a Grand Tour in the four years I've been doing these previews. Sixteen main contenders I've named, and a strong case could be made for about half of them, the other half will be fighting for the 4th to 10th places.

There are going to be some very interesting dynamics to this race, will Froome and Dumoulin pay for their efforts in the Giro? Will the Movistar four-star line-up prove too much for Sky, or will it blow up in their faces? Can Richie Porte finally get a bit of luck and be up there at the end of a three-week race? Can the wild-cards like Roglic, Bernal, Fuglsang, Martin and Yates upset the apple-cart? Can Bardet deliver a decent time-trial and possibly take that big-step up to become the first French winner in decades? Can Uran improve on his stealthy 2nd place of last year? Can Nibali show us once again how he's the master of getting it right when it matters?

So many things to ponder. And then there's the course. Windy stages, lumpy stages, cobbled stages, short, and even shorter stages, and only three summit finishes. There are four stages that finish after a descent after a big climb, maybe this could swing things back Vincenzo Nibali's way?!

I think that Tom Dumoulin could go very well in this Tour. I think he has a lot of the attributes needed to win and he basically has 9 stages more recovery really before the first big test in the mountains. He will be a big danger in that final TT and if he's close enough he could win it. I also think Romain Bardet is going to go very well. He is very confident of a big ride, he says that he is not fearing either of the TTs and he has a very strong team around him.

Geraint Thomas looks ready, he's just won the British TT championships last weekend, and he might be a better bet at the prices than Froome, who might well crumble in the heat of France. Richie Porte should go close, as should Quintana, but I am going to wait and watch with them to see how they are doing by the first rest day, they may well be minutes down. Uran is my back to lay bet at 60s, he will definitely trade shorter than that.  

Recommendations:

1.5pts each-way on Tom Dumoulin at 14/1 with various

1pt each-way on Romain Bardet at 16/1 with various

1pt win on Rigo Uran at 60s on Betfair as a back-to-lay bet

0.2pts each-way on Guillaume Martin at 500/1 with various

Matchbets

Pozzovivo to beat Nieve - 3pts at 4/6

Dumoulin to beat Roglic - 3pts at 4/6