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Published on Monday, 27 June 2016 00:50

TDF 2016 Young Riders Preview

Like the KOM jersey, this jersey was also introduced in 1975, and this competition has had various criteria over the years as to who were eligible to win it, but it has now settled down to be just anyone who is under 26 years of age.

Since the young rider classification was introduced, it has been won by 35 different cyclists. Of those, six cyclists also won the yellow jersey during their careers (Fignon, LeMond, Pantani, Ullrich, Contador and Schleck).

On four occasions a cyclist has won the young rider classification and the general classification in the same year — Fignon in '83, Ullrich in '97, Contador in '07 and Schleck in '10. The only cyclist to win the young rider classification and the mountains classification in the same year is Nairo Quintana in '13. The only cyclists to win the young rider classification in multiple Tours are Nairo Quintana (two wins), Marco Pantani (two wins), Jan Ullrich (three wins - also finishing first or second on the general classification on all three of these occasions) and Andy Schleck (three wins).

This competition was pretty hot last year with Nairo Quintana the favourite, followed by Bardet and Pinot, but all three have passed through the cut-off this year (which is riders born since the 1st January 1991). Last year it was impossible to bet on anyone other than the three named above really, Quintana was a banker 8/13 bet. 

This year is a different matter though and there's another crop of top youngsters coming through behind these guys. Recent form shows that we could be in for another cracking battle for the white jersey, with some of those in contention for it also possibly going to be challenging for a top 10 place. 

Wilco Kelderman - 10/1

Wilco Kelderman was leading the Tour de Suisse going in to stage 7 after a 10th place in the opening TT and two 5th places in a row on stages 5 and 6. He cracked though on stage 7 as Tejay broke the race apart, and although he finished a creditable 13th he lost over 2 minutes and that was the end of his challenge, he ended up finishing 8th.

4th in the GC in Andalucia, with a 2nd place in the TT over 21kms, 10th in Pais Vasco, 13th in Paris-Nice this year. Winner of the youth competition in Catalunya last year (ahead of Barguil), he didn't have the best TDF though in 2015, finishing in 79th, but that poor result was a consequence of a bad crash that happened on just the 3rd stage which injured his back, he suffered for the whole race. He almost won stage 13 in to Rodez though, after being out in the break all day he was caught by the peloton with 250m to go when GVA outsprinted Sagan..

He rode well in Switzerland and the experience and training will serve him well for the TDF, he didn't put himself in to the red on that stage won by Tejay, with one eye on the TDF. The TTs will suit him well and the relatively few summit finishes will also be in his favour. He isn't afraid to attack, especially when maybe he's a bit out of it on GC to be let go, but he could still be fighting it out for the white jersey. 7th in the Giro in 2014 when only 23 years old, he also finished 4th in the Dauphiné in 2014, 3rd in last year's Eneco Tour, he has also won the Tour of Denmark in 2013. He should be a big challenger for a top 10 placing overall and as a result should be right up there in the hunt for the white jersey. 

Warren Barguil - 10/11 favourite

The young French hope is top of the team sheet for Giant-Alpecin and he is coming in to form at just the right moment too with a superb showing at the Dauphiné, where he finished 3rd overall and had a 2nd and a 3rd place finish on two of the tougher stages. He's making a great recovery from the terrible crash in the pre-season training, his 9th in Fleche Wallone and 6th in Amstel Gold showed that he has had good legs since the start of the season. 

It looks like it could be all for Barguil in the GC in this year's race, Degenkolb doesn't look like he has hit top form yet. Laurens Ten Dam and Simon Geschke are two great lieutenants and they will look after him well in the mountains. Barguil's achilles heel though is his time trialling abilities, he's really poor against the clock, an example of a similar stage was the TT in the Tour de Suisse last year which was over 38kms, he finished 34th and shipped 2'38". In the 16.8km TT in the Tour de Suisse this year he finished 21st, losing 57".

He is not afraid to attack either, like Kelderman, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the two of them attacking each other and together and may be let go by Froome and Quintana some day later in the race. 14th in his first Tour in 2015, he is very capable of a top 10 finish, and as a result is a very strong favourite to take the white jersey home to lift Giant-Alpecin after what has been a very tough season for them.

Adam Yates - 4/1

23 year-old Adam Yates had a great 2014, winning the Tour of Turkey, 5th in the Tour of California and 6th in the Criterium du Dauphiné, he didn't do so well in his Grand Tour debut in the Vuelta that year, finishing 82nd. His debut in the Tour de France last year didn't go so well either, starting really badly with 97th in the prologue and he never really made his mark, finishing the race in 50th place. 

He came out of the race in great form though, winning in San Sebastian and finishing 2nd in the Grand Prix de Montreal and in the GC in Montreal, winning the Young Riders competition there. He's had a mixed season, his head must be affected by what has happened to Simon, and although he rode really well to finish 7th in the Dauphiné (and 2nd in the Young Riders competition), I am worried that he won't see the three weeks out again like last year and fade towards the end of the race. 

The mountain TT should suit him well though as he showed in the 16km hilly TT in Pais Vasco this year to Eibar, but the longer, flatter TT won't. What he will make up in one he'll lose more in the other. The team looks to be a team built to try to take stage victories from the punchier stages, with Impey, Matthews, Gerrans and Albasini, there is little support for Yates in the high mountains, and for that reason I think he won't be winning this competition. He could go close to a top 3 too but I am not interested in him at just 4/1, with everything that's going on in his personal life too weighing on him. 

Julian Alaphilippe - 18/1

Someone very much involved in the sport and very much 'in the know' told me a few months back that he reckoned Alaphilippe was in far better shape coming in to the season than he was letting on, and that the issues with the mononucleosis that he suffered from were well gone. He was raving about his chances for the Tour de France at 1000/1 and to be honest, I thought he was mad. Especially as he didn't finish any of the races he started up until the end of March..

I still think he is mad (!), but he is now just 150/1 best price after things started to click for him in a big way from April onwards. 6th in Amstel Gold, 2nd in Fleche Wallone, He pulled off a stunning ride up Gibraltar Road in the TOC, taking the overall with a brilliant stage win. He followed that with a great Dauphiné where he finished 5th in the prologue and also finished 2nd, 4th, 6th, 9th and 10th in other stages to take 6th overall in the GC. 

He comes here full of confidence and hope, but you'd think after Dan Martin's performance in the Dauphiné that the team will be riding for him and Alaphilippe might be asked to help him where possible. I worry also about his stamina for a tough three-week race like this, especially as it's his first 3-week Tour. 

Louis Meintjes - 9/2

Louis Meintjes is going to be a top rider in year's to come, he was one I mentioned last year as having an outside chance, but he was still only 23, in fact he shares a birthday with me, just quite a few years younger!

He had a disaster in the TDF last year when he abandoned with only four stages to go, whilst sitting in a lowly 101st place, a crash on stage 12 when in the break of the day didn't help (left). But in other races that year he showed his potential, with a fine 10th place finish in the Vuelta and winner of the youth competitions in the Giro del Trentino and Tour of Oman.

This year didn't start well for him at all, and I was starting to get really worried about his performances, as he  didn't finish Pais Vasco, Catalunya or Romandie. But he went off on a training block at altitude with Tsgabu Grmay and it seemed to have done wonders to his form as he rode brilliantly in the Critérium du Dauphiné to finish 9th, with three top 10 placings on the three tough finishing stages. It still wasn't enough to win him the White Jersey there though, as Julian Alaphilippe and Adam Yates finished above him. 

He'll need the help of team-mates like Grmay, who incidentally is also only 24, Polanc, Durasek and Costa but I think he'll be definitely one to watch this TDF and he could be top 3 in this competition. Grmay will be the first Ethiopian in the 103 editions of the TDF and he too could do well in the young riders competition, but I think he'll be in the services of Meintjes. 

And there are lots of other quality youngsters in this year's race - Eduardo Sepulveda continues to progress and improve and he was desperately unlucky last year to be kicked out of the race when in 19th place on stage 14. After breaking his chain he 'panicked' and got in the AG2R car for 100m to get to his team car. The race jurors took no pity on him and chucked him out. He did a really good TT in the Route du Sud to finish 7th and finished 19th overall, slipping down on the hard, wet stage 4 won by Marco Soler. He could be a dark horse to watch here. 

Natnael Berhane finished 18th in the Tour de Suisse, but the Eritrean struggled in the TTs, Patrick Konrad is Bora's best GC chance probably, he finished 5th in Trentino this year, they also have young German champ Emanuel Buchmann. Alexis Lutsenko can go well for Astana and Alexis Gougeard will attack a lot, but won't trouble the GC. 

I think this will be a brilliant competition this year, but hard to pick the winner from! Kelderman looks overpriced at 10/1, but Barguil looks the most likely winner, he can stay with the big guns longer than any of the rest I think, although Meintjes and Yates could really give them a fight. 

Recommendation:

0.5pts each-way on Wilko Kelderman at 10/1 with Will Hill (actually I just realised that Will Hill are win only for now, I'll keep an eye out for those going each-way and update on this)

3pts win on Warren Barguil at 10/11 with Bet365