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Published on Saturday, 09 July 2016 00:24

TDF Stage 9

V. Val d'Aran - And. Arcalis

Sunday 10th July, 184.5kms 

A day that takes part completely on foreign soil in two different countries and tackles two climbs over 2,000m, it's yet another crucial stage in the TDF 2016. the first 130kms are raced in Spain, the last 54kms in the Principality of Andorra.

What a bizarre finish to the stage today. It turns out the GC men did end up fighting for the stage victory- the breaks went, but took well over an hour to go and when it did go it had Clement and Luis Leon in it, but they couldn't handle the pace on the Tourmalet and pretty soon it was just Pinot and Makja out front. And as Pinot was just 3 mins down on GC he was never going to be let get too much of a lead. The break just wasn't strong enough and the relentless pace of the Skybots wore away their lead quite early on. 

From then on, it was a snooze-fest as Sky just ground away at the front and one by one riders were shelled out the back - Contador fell away, Rolland fell on a descent, as did Kelderman, who was desperately unlucky to roll a tub on a bend and crash. He got back on but the banging he got seemed to affect him and he slipped back on the run in, you can't blame him after what happened on the previous descent. 

Froome caught them all with their pants down at the top of the Peyresourde, Nairo took a bottle and a gel, Froome took off. That was just after pushing Majka out of the way for having the temerity to try to take some KOM points off the Sky express. But we know now what he was really doing, it looks like the attack was planned, as Henao positioned him at the front cresting the top, and he took off on his 54-tooth chainring... (right)

Froome hammered it down the road on his cross-bar, a-la-Sagan and I think the others just thought, no problem, silly boy, we'll reel him in soon.. But he kept going, the others looked around as to who would do the chasing, and instead, Froome just kept pulling out the lead - to around 22" at one point. Quintana admitted afterwards "I let my guard down" as Froome attacked while he had a bottle in his hand.

It was another lesson for Quintana that you can never let your guard down if you want to win the Tour de France, you'd have thought he knew that by now. But right at the top of the climb, when Quintana was at the front of the chasers, he looked around and freewheeled, waiting for someone else to take it up, that gap he let Froome get cost them all. Yates should have done something to chase him down, as he was losing his chance to wear yellow, but instead he sat at the back of the chasers. 

Finally, as they hit the last kilometre, the chasers came in to view, with Bardet, Martin and Purito fighting it out for the minor places, and they pulled it back to 13" at the end, but with a 10" bonus Froome now has a 16" lead over Yates and Rodriguez with Martin 1" further back. Once again, like twice in the Dauphiné Martin was denied a stage win by a break taking the stage, he was the most powerful sprinter at the finish, underlining what superb shape he is in. If only he had some decent team-mates who could support him when it comes to crunch time. 

Bardet landing the each-way money if you backed him with PP, Boylesports or Skybet. The matchbet double landed at 11/10 but Kelderman's crash probably cost him his chance of beating Mollema. It also cost him time in the young riders classification, which is still hotting up with Meintjes and Yates only 18" apart, followed by Barguil and Kelderman just over a minute and a half behind.

The KOM competition is still anyone's guess, with Pinot trying for points but cracking badly a long way out, Majka taking points, Froome taking points and Sky taking a bunch of points between them. As for the GC, Froome is odds-on now 

Stage 9

The five climbs of the day are scattered between the Spanish and Andorran territories. In the final 50kms they'll have to cope with the explosive climb to the Col de la Comella, then the rather irregular one to Beixalis that left rather bad memories for Christopher Froome on the last Vuelta, and finally the long climb to Arcalis. 

It was on the descent off the Beixalis that Froome crashed in the opening kilometres of stage 11, hitting a barrier and a stone wall, injuring his foot. Although he continued on the stage he was clearly suffering and lost a lot of time. He could barely walk to the hospital and didn't start the next day. 

The Tour de France has been coming to the principality since 1964, when Spanish climber Julio Jiménez triumphed after a solo effort. The Grande Boucle, like the Vuelta, then discovered the resort of Arcalis which it has visited on several occasions. Brice Feillu was the last man to win there on the first mountain stage of the 2009 edition.

The race may only be a week old, but there will be lots of riders who will be looking forward to the first rest day, with yet another brutally hard day in the Pyrenées to get through today, finishing in the HC climb to Andorre Arcalis. 

The Route

The stage starts in Spain at Vielha Val d'Aran and they head south-east in a u-shaped loop before entering Andorra and finishing within sight of the French border. The stage starts with a steep climb right from the flag-drop, with the ascent of the Cat 1 climb of the Port de la Bonaiqua. The road rises for the first 19kms of the stage, although the categorised climb is 'just' 13.7kms long at 6.1%. We could already see more than half the peloton in a grupetto by the time they have done just 19kms. 

A fast and steep 20km descent is followed by a shallower descent for another 28kms, so some riders who got dropped on the first climb will have a chance to get back on again. But the climbing restarts with 67kms gone, with the 19km ascent of the Port del Canto, another Cat 1 climb that averages a more gentle 5.1%. 

A 25km descent takes them through Montferrer and La Seu d'Urgell before they cross in to Andorra after 128kms and through the intermediate sprint at Andorre la Vieille with 46kms to go. The sprint is at the foot of the third climb of the day with the Cat 2 Cote de la Comella, which is only 4.2kms long, but averages a tough 8.2%, with the first and last kilometre averaging 9.5%. 

A short descent and straight on to the penultimate climb, the Cat 1 Col de Beixalis, a twisting, testing Cat 1 climb of 6.4kms at 8.5%, the steepest climb of the day, with sections at up to 11.6%. One last descent, a little bump at Ordino and they start the HC climb to the finish. The climb to Andorre Arcalis is 10kms long at an average of 7.1%, climbing to the heady heights of 2,240m. It does ease slightly to 5.7% in the last kilometre, but it's likely that a solo rider will take the victory, possibly even someone from the break of the day. 

Contenders and Favourites

Today I thought the break would make it, with and the favourites would save themselves for tomorrow. That wasn't how it turned out though as the break was poor and composed of the wrong riders, and Sky were intent on not letting them go. Froome's attack on the final climb was probably pre-planned and they were determined to stick to the play-book. When looking at this stage ahead of time, I thought this would definitely be a GC day, so it'll probably end in a break winning now!

Do we dare go with Costa again? He was backed off the boards today and came nowhere near the break from what I can make out. Romain Sicard picked up some KOM points today, as did Majka and Pinot - could they go again? Maybe, but I think with a rest day coming up and the fact that Sky will be looking to control the race and set up Froome for another shot at winning the first uphill finish of the Tour, like he has done in 2015, 2013 and 2012. 

Sky will probably control the race for much of the day, with Froome in yellow now they will look to defend the lead, but at the same time, they probably woudn't mind someone else taking over the jersey. With all the media duties on a rest day in the TDF for the race leader, it would be a weight off their shoulders, as would it be a weight off the team to be having to control the race on the flat stages to come. But it's likely we will see them use up Kiryienka, Poels, Landa and Nieve on the way to the Andorre Arcalis, where Movistar might take over. 

They really are the only two teams I think that are going to be able to control the race, Astana look weak and BMC will be lucky to have Caruso and Moinard hanging on with Porte and Van Garderen. So then we are left to try to figure out who is going to win this stage based on who is likely to control the stage and set up the final attacks. 

Chris Froome looked good today, but that downhill attack, what was that all about?! I was thinking at the time he was burning matches unnecessarily and that he'd be caught, but he held on, comfortably. It didn't tell us a whole lot about his condition for attacking on the uphill slopes though, he did put in an acceleration at the top of the Peyresourde, but Quintana and the rest were easily able to stay with him, it was his sneak attack after the top that caught them out. 

He always goes well on the first uphill stage and he likes to stamp his authority and take the lead early in the race. He already has it, and with the effort he put in today, maybe he might not quite be at his absolute best? Henao was superb today and a tough finish like this one could see Henao hammer it until maybe 5kms to go, where Froome might try one of his trademark attacks. Or he may even try attacking on the steeper first 3kms which average 8%, knowing that if he gets a gap he may be able to hold them at bay. If he comes to the line with a handful of riders though, he could be beaten by others, the final kilometre is only 4.4% average. 

The big question will be whether a) Nairo Quintana goes on the offensive to try to make up for today, or b) if Froome does attack whether Nairo can stay with him. Looking at a) first, I think he will attack - he will be fuming after today's mistake, and not only that but I think his DS Unzue will be furious that they let that happen after cresting the top on Froome's wheel. Their target was to hit the first uphill stage without any time losses and they almost did it, but now he has 23" to make up - if Froome wins tomorrow and Quintana loses some time, Froome could go in to week two with a lead of over a minute. He can't afford to let that happen. 

If he has to follow Froome's attack, I think that he will be a lot closer than he has been in recent years. He has been climbing really well all year and has looked very calm and comfortable all week. He did a little teaser attack today, but it was nothing serious, but when Froome went, he was straight on his wheel with Dan Martin. I am not sure Froome will be able to shake him off tomorrow, but whether he can counter him and attack away in the closing kilometres is another matter. 

Who else can challenge them? Dan Martin was very impressive today, as he has been all week and in fact all through the Dauphiné. He should have won today, had Froome not skipped away. He has moved to Andorra and so will be on home roads here, he should know the final climb pretty well as he'll have dont plenty of training rides over them in the last six months. He was on Froome like a flash today and looked to me like he was just bursting to attack, but reigned himself in. I think he could be a big danger to them tomorrow as the finish will suit him, he just needs to be there in the last few kilometres to have a chance.

When PP opened their prices early on they made him 25/1 and I thought that was a super price.. but I got distracted, had to go out and when I came back he was 20/1.. I went to place the bet, put in my stake, hit submit and I got a price change notification and he was 12/1!! Very annoying.. There is 14/1 with Skybet paying four places, and that might be worth taking again, even if he can't stay with the top two he shouldn't be far behind. 

Richie Porte looks to be the clear team leader now at BMC, Van Garderen was working for him today and on a finish like this he could go well. He is looking very strong and calm, but has time to make up now after his puncture. It may be that he attacks and Froome and Quintana wait for the other to go, fearing a counter from Tejay, and he might slip away. Or it's likely that if there is just a handful of riders come to the finish, Porte should be one of the first 5 home. 20/1 with Boylesports paying 4 places looks ok. 

Romain Bardet will be close enough too, but I can't see him being let slip away, he never seems to be given any freedom. Tejay Van Garderen will be there or thereabouts too but I can't see him soloing away from these guys, and Valverde looks to be taking his Quintana minding duties very seriously. Joaquim Rodriguez took another top 4 placing today, following on from his 4th at the Lioran, he is in good shape it seems too - but can he stay with Froome and Quintana when the hammer goes down? Maybe not.. he has struggled in recent years in those sorts of situations. But if he can hang in there, he would be a danger at the finish with his finishing kick. 

We'll find out tomorrow what the likes of Louis Meintjes, Adam Yates, Fabio Aru and Bauke Mollema are really made of, they were comfortable enough today, but when Froome accelerated, they were left behind when the gap formed with Martin and Henao up ahead with Froome and Quintana. If that gap stretches tomorrow again, they may not get back on again. 

It's hard to make a case for any others, the break has a slim chance I think, and Sky will look to set a fast pace to thin things out, and Movistar should push it hard on the Arcalis. I think it's hard to call between Froome and Quintana of course, Froome looks too short to me around 2/1, Quintana looks a little bit like a bet to nothing at 4/1 with PP, he should be in the first 3 if they go full gas, and on a good day he could well take the stage and start to fight back. Dan Martin and Richie Porte could be the bets though at ok prices. 

**Edit: 09:43 - one rider I want for the break is Brice Feillu - I just saw his brother tweet: 

And realised that he won a stage to Andorre Arcades in 2009.. He might fancy a go again today for old times sake. Worth a small bet at 125s.

Recommendations: 

0.5pts each-way on Dan Martin at 14/1 at Skybet (only paying three places tomorrow for some reason, must be getting sick of us taking them on the four places for the last two days.)

0.5pts each-way on Richie Porte at 20/1 with Boylesports paying four places.

Brice Feillu - 0.2pts each-way at 125/1 with various 

Matchbets

Romain Bardet to beat Tejay Van Garderen - 2pts at 8/11 with Bet365

Meintjes to beat Yates - 2pts at 5/6

Porte to beat Aru and Martin to beat Rodriguez - 2pts at 3.1/1 with Paddy Power