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Published on Monday, 04 July 2016 20:04

TDF Stage 4

Saumur to Limoges

Tuesday 5th July, 237.5kms 

At 237.5kms this is the longest stage of the 2016 Tour de France and will be a real challenge for those looking to ride themselves in to form in this race. This time last year they were riding to the Mur de Huy, this year it's a run from Saumur to the Limoges region in the centre of France.  

Well, Kittel was pretty pathetic today, he went from being in a great position with two men in front of him with 1500m to go to being swallowed up and passed by about 20 guys, then just gave up. He's clearly not in the right place right now, whether that's physically or mentally, but it was really disappointing to see him throw in the towel so visibly. Others like Cav, Greipel and Sagan had to negotiate tricky paths to get in to position, he just didn't even bother. He kicked again at the end to finish 7th, but it was all too late. Can you trust him after these two stages to win any of the flat stages next week? He could leave the race without a stage win, something that was unthinkable pre-race. 

What a sprint between the top two again though, Cavendish is really rolling back the years with some superbly timed sprints, he really is going for it. Greipel celebrated too soon though, but let down his followers who had been backing him all day, he had been backed in to less than 3/1 from over 4/1 on Betfair. Like yesterday, I can't imagine many were on Cav, but if you were a Sky fan, and you backed him like I said to, then well done!

Behind, Coquard, the man I have so much time for annoyingly beat Sagan in a photo finish too to deny us the e/w payout on Sagan but in finishing 3rd he won the matchbet with Kristoff at 11/10, saved us a little bit. Four fancied runners for today - Groenewegen, Kristoff, Matthews and Degenkolb finished just outside the top 10 together. Instead we saw some of the up-and-coming names in the top 10 like Theuns, Enger, Laporte and McLay.  

Other than that, it was an incrediby boring and slow stage, Thomas Voeckler did his best to liven it up, but it was only in the last 30kms or so that the pace really lifted. That was good news for Bennett, Contador and Morkov though who had a nice easy day, Bennett only finished 2mins down, Morkov was over 8 mins down.

The Tour de France has passed through Limoges fourteen times but the last passage of a major elite cycling race was in 2010 and the visit of Paris-Nice. On that day, many had noticed a young and promising talent of only 20 years of age: Peter Sagan had finished second in the sprint claimed by William Bonnet.  

The Route

Almost a straight line south-east for practically the whole lot of the 237kms and it's practically flat for the first 140kms as they head towards Montmorillon. From there the road starts to rise as they head in to the Haute Vienne. By the time they go over the top of the Bonnac la Cote they'll have been climbing gently for around 70kms, but along the way they go over the Cat 4 Cote de la Maison Neuve, a 1.2km hill at 5.6% average gradient. 

The last 27kms down towards Limoges are mostly downhill so it should be an extremely fast finish to the stage. With just under 20kms to go they turn right and head south-west towards the finish, and after a short downhill run for the last 3kms the road kicks up for the last 500m at a 5% gradient, making it a punchy finish to the stage. There are two roundabouts to get around with 5km and 3km to go but mostly it's a pretty straight-forward run-in.

They do descend down to the 1km to go banner, and a bit like the yesterday's stage, as they cross the river the road rises up to the line. The last kilometre is dead straight though on very wide roads, so expect teams to be massing across the road trying to set up their sprinter/puncheurs on the run to the line.  

The Contenders:

As it's the longest stage of the race, the distance will have many breakaway riders thinking, nah, forget it today, we've got another hard day tomorrow in the mountains! But some will give it a go, the lumpy parcours will suit some and will put some teams off a strong chase, given what they will face on the next stage to Le Lioran.

Etixx for example might decide to save themselves for Wednesday for Alaphilippe and Martin, both of whom would have a chance on the finish up to the ski station. Sky have no reason to chase, AG2R will have all eyes on Wednesday too as Bardet is a local boy and will want to do well, and Vuillermoz will also like the finish. Bora are still nursing Sam Bennett but LottoNL-Jumbo might be inclined to chase for Groenewegen, but I've a feeling they'll have a man in the break. 

Lotto-Soudal and Direct-Energie will probably be one of the few teams willing to chase, as Greipel and Coquard will probably want it to come to a sprint, and maybe Orica-BE as they might want Matthews or Gerrans to give it a go up the hill, they were 5th and 11th on Sunday, Matthews was 12th today though. Sagan would have a really good chance again though, so you have to wonder whether Tinkoff really will want to work for that, or if they need to look after Contador and make sure he doesn't lose any more time.

So a hard one to call for that reason.. Almost a day where I'd recommend a no bet. But I've a few in mind for the break, first up being Sep Vanmarcke of LottoNL-Jumbo. Vanmarcke hasn't come here for the sprints, and he certainly hasn't come here for the climbing, so he'll have had stages like this marked down on his roadbook. A lumpy parcours with Tour of Flanders distance, he should be right at home here. He is almost 2 minutes down on GC, so although it's tight, I don't think Tinkoff would mind losing the responsibility of controlling the race on the difficult stage to Le Lioran, they'll be happy for someone else to take over. I think he is worth a small bet at the massive price of 400/1 with Paddy Power.

Another Flanders/Ardennes breakaway type is Olivier Naesen of IAM Cycling - he will like this sort of course and distance and with talk this week that he will be going to AG2R next year, then he might be out to impress his new employers. He's over 3 mins down so should be given some leeway too - 500/1 is worth a few pennies.

Giant-Alpecin might fancy putting someone in the break too, which guy is the question.. Simon Geschke might fancy it, or Laurens Ten Dam, they would be tentative picks though. What about Trek-Segafredo? Jasper Stuyven showed on Sunday what fantastic shape he's in, he almost made it.. He will have had a day to recover from that, maybe he'll fancy it again? Or what about mister Classics himself, Fabian Cancellara? A tough, long day in the saddle over lumpy terrain, followed by an uphill sprint from a reduced group? Sounds right up his street. The first TT is not for a week so he might use a stage like this to get some good training in. It's likely he is trying to get some training in for the Olympics too, so a good hard day in the saddle this far out would do him good.. 200/1 he is, worth a small bet.. 

And finally, for the break, the ever-aggressive Thomas de Gendt - he's way down on GC now, over 10 mins down, so he might be let go on a day that he would fancy too with the lumpy finish to the stage. He was a lot shorter at just 66/1 with PP when they opened but is now a massive 400/1, he's also worth a speculative pound or two now at that price. I think some of the break-away heros have been biding their time for a day like this. 

So that's the break longshots taken care of, the bookies seem to think it will be a sprint finish though, with a fight between the stronger sprinters and the puncheurs again, with Peter Sagan the 7/2 favourite. Can't argue with that really, he looks the most likely winner and probably will win. He is just looking so strong and the 5% finish will probably suit him even more than the finish of stage 2. He is so strong he is positioning himself and working his own leadout and he can to the same tomorrow to put himself in the right spot to attack up the hill to the finish.

André Greipel is 2nd favourite, but I'm not sure, I think this finish might be a bit hard for him, although he has done ok on uphill finishes in the past, I'm not interested in him at just 4/1. One rider who looks way over-priced to me though is Greg Van Avermaet at 66/1, he was only 11/1 on Sunday on a finish not too dissimilar to this and wasn't far off in 8th place, and again was 15th today. I think he will like this uphill finish too and 66/1 is too big, even the 40/1 with Bet365 looks ok.

Considering how close Alaphilippe was to winning on Sunday, he looks big at 33/1, but I think this might be just a bit too 'easy' for him, he needs it steeper. Marcel Kittel looks big at 10/1, if only because he has a big wide road up to the finish and he might be able to stay out of trouble. But I don't think he will be fighting for victory here tomorrow, I really hope he doesn't win it too after what he did today to us..! Maybe they'll give Richeze a go? He can't do any worse than Kittel has done and he was in good form before the Tour.. He is 80/1 in a few places.

Edward Theuns is riding really well and could be in the mix again, Alexander Kristoff is going to come good sooner or later, but I don't think it will be tomorrow, and Michael Matthews also looks like he is still lacking a little something speed-wise to challenge the fastest guys here.

One who does look like he might be starting to find top gear though is Bryan Coquard, he landed a podium today and could do well on this uphill sprint, like in Amstel Gold and Brabantjse Pijl. He needs to follow Sagan's wheel again and try to pounce late, he's short enough (no pun intended) at 6/1 but the 8/1 with Betway is interesting enough.

This is another trappy and difficult stage to try to guess - the break might make it, if it is strong enough, the peloton might let them go if they get a lead of 10 mins or more. I know they are huge long-shots, but at those prices, you never know, worth scattering a few tiny bets around. We might even see late attacks from the likes of Cancellara or Vanmarcke, seeing as it's such a long stage, they might attack when it gets lumpy in the last 50kms or so, like in the Tour of Flanders. And if it comes to a sprint, Sagan, Coquard are two likely lads, with Van Avermaet way over-priced at 40/1.    

Recommendations:

Sep Vanmarcke - 0.1pts each-way at 400/1 with Paddy Power

Oliveir Naesen - 0.1pts each-way at 500/1 with Paddy Power

Fabian cancellara - 0.1pts win at 200/1 with Paddy Power

Greg Van Avermaet - the 66/1 is gone, but the 40/1 he is available at generally is about twice the price I think he should be. 0.2pts each-way. 

Peter Sagan - 2pts win at 7/2 with Paddy Power 

Bryan Coquard - 0.5pts each-way at 8/1 with Betway

Matchbets

Sagan to beat Greipel, Coquard to beat Kristoff, Matthews to beat Degenkolb - 2pts at 2/1 with Bet365