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Published on Wednesday, 20 July 2016 22:48

TDF Stage 18

Sallanches to Megève  

Thursday 21rd July, 17kms 

This should have been the stage maybe that decided the Tour de France. It was maybe going to all come down to who can climb the 10kms of this 17km stage the quickest.. But that was based on the hope that Nairo Quintana was still close to Froome and not nearly three minutes behind him. 

A good day today - Ilnur does the business finally for us and makes up for his contact lens debacle on stage 15 when he probably would have won based on the way he rode away from Pantano and Majka today.. Nice to get a 22/1 winner, hopefully some of you got the prices around 20/1, if not even 14/1 was pretty good. He rode it perfectly, allowing Majka and Pantano have their fun on the descent off the Forclaz and reeling them in on the final climb, before attacking away from them. It was also nice that he landed one of the ante-post bets too, the 2/1 that he would win a stage during the race. Makes up somewhat for the awful bet on Cav NOT to win a stage! How wrong was that one?!

Pantano and Majka rode great again though, and if you followed my advice and backed Majka around 15 or 16/1, you were able to lay him back at as short as 4/5 or something like that, I didn't see how low he went but he did go odds on as they sprinted down the hill away from Zakarin. I laid out at 3/1 to get my stake back, so it was a no-loss on him. The matchbets were looking really good until the full results revealed that Costa had not been able to beat Alaphilippe and Barguil somehow managed to finish 6 minutes behind Buchmann, who seemed to be really suffering at one point. 

Overall though the 7/4 on Yates to beat Valverde was a great bet, contributing to a +12.5pt profit on the day, not a bad two-day return with the 12pts from Monday. Meanwhilie, Sky and Froome were strangling the race to death, with Poels, Henao and Nieve crushing all before them. Dan Martin tried, got nowehere and in fact could have given up some places on the GC with his attack as he went out the back door just as soon as he was caught. Porte tried, but it was almost like he was just riding as a carrot for Froome, he never really got away by much, then Froome put on the afterburners and caught him in no time.

I think I called Porte spot on though, he was the best of the GC men, and I'm not sure Froome would have come around him if they were fighting for the stage win, Froome doesn't need bonus seconds any more.  He is continuing to creep up the GC and could yet finish in a podium spot for us - tomorrow will be a big day for that I think. Mollema suffered, but actually managed to limit his losses enough to remain in 2nd place. Tomorrow's TT is going to be huge for him too, he will need to put big time in to Adam Yates to put a bigger buffer between the two of him in case he suffers another bad day in the two tough stages to come. 

And what about Quintana - nothing, nada, zilch. Now we know why he hasn't done anything so far in this race, it's because he's incapable of it. No one knows what's going on, but he clearly isn't the Quintana we know. Adam Yates was brilliant and is nearly in 2nd place in the GC, Aru continues to improve and has moved above Dan Martin in to 8th place. Some riders really had to go in to the red today, others didn't - Froome didn't really ever look like he was struggling and Porte just seemed to be rolling up the hill at a steady pace, seemed pretty comfortable.. 

Stage 18 then and a 17km TT. The first 4kms are flat and the last 2kms are downhill, so it's not quite a 17km uphill TT as you'd think when just looking first. The climb itself starts really steeply, with gradients over 10%, but then eases off to alternate between flattish sections and sections at around 4.7%. It will be a really challenging TT and different riders will do better, and worse on different parts of it. 

The flat intro will see the strong TT'ers gain an advantage over the lighter climbers, but there is no time check there (officially anyway) to compare how the GC favourites have done compared to their rivals. The pure climbers will have to measure their efforts, as the first climbing part is really steep, with 2kms at over 10%. They can't go too much in to the red though as they will need to push on when the road levels out again. 

The middle part of the stage though, the 5kms between the top of the Cote de Domancy and Demi-Quartier could be where this stage is won and lost though. They will be hurting after that 10%+ section and will then need to push really hard to keep the pace up through the undulating parts. The roads are mainly wide open highways though so the climb is suited to the really powerful guys, it will be a fascinating battle between the big power men like Froome and the sprightly little climbers like Quintana. Can Tom Dum hold his own with the climbers to take his second TT of the race?

The riders are going off in two minute intervals again like in the first TT, except for the top GC men who go three minutes apart. The forecast is for showers during the day, with the highest chance of rain being in the morning, so the GC men might have a slight advantage over those going earlier. 

The Route

They start in Sallanches and head south-west on mainly flat roads for the first 4.3kms, before turning sharply right near Domancy and start the Cote de Domancy. It is steep right from the start, with 2kms at 10-11%. The first time check is at the top of the Cote de Domancy and we'll start to get an idea of who is on it and who is not. The rider with the fastest time up the Cote de Domancy wins the Prix Bernard Hinault, in honour of when Bernard Hinault won the World Championships there in 1980. A nice little prize of €5,000 - you might see some guys go all out to try to just win that and coast home for the rest of the stage..

It flattens out a little for a kilometre, then kicks up again at 4.7% for 3kms, then  a hard kilometre at 8.3% which will really start to burn. It flattens again for a kilometre, then another kick up at 8.2% for a kilometre, then levels out a little to just 2.5% before diving down the last 2kms to the finish in Megeve. 

Contenders and Favourites

There are probably only about 5 or 6 guys who can win this stage.- some of the GC guys who will obviously be going all out to gain time, the strong TT'ers who can hold a decent pace through the steep parts, and the surprise outsiders that have been hiding away waiting for a crack at this.. Think Roglic in the Giro...

Starting with the GC men, and of course you have to start with Froome - he is an excellent time triallist, and is in good time trialling condition as we saw in the first TT where he destroyed his GC rivals and was the closest anyone got to Dumoulin. The course will suit him - he goes well on the flat, he obviously goes well on the hills and he may even try his new descending skills on the run-in to Megeve! He looks a strong choice for the stage, but the only negatives would be that Froome has been comfortable sitting on the wheels of Henao, Poels and Nieve so far in the hills, how will he fare going flat out for 10kms of climbing iwith no one in front of him?

Nairo Quintana won a similar TT in the Giro in 2014 on his way to overall victory, that was slightly longer at 26kms, but had a 7km flat run in to it. It was also a lot steeper average (19kms at 8%), which suited him more.  After seeing his performance today though, I can't see him even finishing in the first 6 here. 

Tom Dumoulin is the 2nd favourite and is being backed tonight, having opened at 5/2 with Paddy Power, he's as short as 7/4 in places. PP are holding firm though at 9/4, and if he can pull off a performance like he did in the first TT he should come very close to beating Froome again. And don't worry about his chances on a hilly TT, just cast your mind back to the Pais Vasco TT in Aia last year, he won that 18km hilly TT by 4" from Joaquim Rodriguez, with Ion Izagirre, Nairo Quintana and Sergio Henao behind him. And of course he has won a mountain stage in this race already. 

Richie Porte looks the strongest climber at the moment amongst the GC men, and he's a master of uphill TTs. Multiple winner of the uphill TT in Paris-Nice, I expect a big ride from him tomorrow. I think he can podium tomorrow and should move up another few places in the GC, he should take time out of Bardet, Quintana and Yates. The 11/2 with William Hill looks a great bet, he should be in the top 3 I think, and if he has a really good day, he could easily win this. 

I don't think Mollema will have the legs to podium, which is a shame, but he will do a good enough TT to extend his lead over his followers, he should do much better than some of those behind him. Adam Yates is riding really well though and did an excellent TT in the first TT of the race. This is a different ball game altogether though and I would be surprised to see him top 3 it here, but he amazes me more and more every day.

The only other riders I think would have a chance here would be Ilnur Zakarin, Woet Poels, Ion Izagirre and Nelson Oliveira. Zakarin had a hard day today though and left it all on the road to win the stage. If he hadn't had that sort of day today I'd have fancied him to go well, but as it is, I think he'll have a rest day tomorrow and go again in the break Friday and Saturday. 

Poels is absolutely flying, will they let him off the leash to try to go for stage glory? It's possible, but with two big stages still to come, I'm not sure about that. Ion Izagirre should like this mountain TT and did a very good first TT to finish 8th. He finished ahead of Tony Martin, Steve Cummings and Maciej Bodnar that day. At 40/1 he could be worth a small e/w bet. Nelson Oliveira of course led for a long time in the first TT, eventually finishing 3rd behind two of the best TTers in the world. Movistar will be pushing hard to get as many guys in the top 10 as possible because of how tight the Team Classification is now - Quintana, Izagirre, Oliveira, Valverde - they will all be going full gas. 

Fabio Aru, Maciej Bodnar and Geraint Thomas could go well too but 5th to 10th at best I think. This looks a stage that should see an excellent battle between Dumoulin and Froome though, but at the prices I can't back either of them. Porte interests me though at 11/2 with William Hill, if you dont have a Hills account, take the 5/1 with Bet365. 

Start times are just below..

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Richie Porte at 11/2 with Will Hill

0.3pts each-way on Ion Izagirre at 40/1 with various 

Matchbets:

Bardet to beat Rodriguez, Yates to beat Valverde, Dumoulin to beat Mollema - 2pts at 2/1 with PP

START TIMES