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- Published on Sunday, 17 July 2016 22:32
TDF Stage 16
Moirans-en-Mtgne to Berne
Mon 18th July, 209kms
This is one last chance theoretically for the sprinters before they head in to the Alps. But that is far from certain, with a number of challenges in the closing kilometres that could see several of the pure sprinters left out of the battle.
A day today that promised so much, with Zakarin, Vuillermoz and Ruben Plaza in the large break of the day that were to go on to contest the win. Plaza fell away early enough, but Zakarin and Vuillemoz were looking good in the break. So too was Majka, who, as expected by the whole world, got in the break of the day and hoovered up a shit-load of points to leapfrog in to the lead. What was surprising though was De Gendt and Costa didn't make the break, so Majka had a clear run at all the points.
Zakarin made a challenge for a while, but when it mattered most, and he was chasing back on with Reichenbach and Vuillermoz, he suddenly had a problem with a contact lens apparently. Can you believe it?! I think that is actually the first time I have ever heard that about why a cyclist threw away a top five placing (and a payout for us...). As it was, he rolled home in 8th place.
Up front, Pantano was superb, reeling in Rafal Majka, who had traded to something like 1/7 in play to take the stage. There was always going to be one winner in that sprint, I've backed Pantano many times over the last few years just for a situation like today.. But was I on today?! No! I had considered him, but thought that the fact he lost nearly 10 mins on Ventoux and finished 4 and a half minutes down in the TT, I thought that he mightn't be in the best of shape. But fair play, it was a great win for him and for IAM
Alexis Vuillermoz nearly did it for us, the little Frenchman was looking pretty good all day, but just at the end he lost contact with Pantano and couldn't make the junction. He and Reichenbach worked really well together and almost caught a dawdling Majka and Pantano, the 33/1 each-way landed at least with Vuillermoz taking 3rd for us. Matchbets weren't great with Pantano winning, Yates to beat Aru the only winner, resulting in a loss of just under 5pts.
And again, we saw absolutely nothing from the GC favourites really except from an attack from Bardet, Aru and Valverde, but behind, Poels and the Sky train just kept on powering on.. Poels, a domestique riding at 6.0 Watts per Kilo for mile after mile.. it's the power that money can buy, riders like Poels and Henao could be winning races on most other teams, instead they are here grinding the opposition in to the ground. Martin, Yates, Meinjes were hanging on for dear life but made it home with the favourites, Tejay wasn't so lucky and lost a minute and a half to slip below Porte in the GC. Movistar took over at the top of the Teams classification though, they now lead Sky by 7'08"
Even though they spend the whole day traversing the Jura mountains more or less, and never drop below 426m, it's a transition stage with relatively little climbing, and only one categorised climb, a Cat 4 that comes with 26kms to go. It's one of those types of KOMs though that comes with some hill still to get over once they pass the line, with around 3km more of gentle climbing before they actually reach the top. This would be a perfect scenario for some late attackers to fake going for the KOM points and attacking off the front, but then keeping the hammer down as the peloton pauses a little bit thinking the KOM battle is done. With 25kms to go, an intrepid bunch of strong late attackers could steal a march and set up a big chase over the closing kilometres.
But that's not the only challenge they face - even though it isn't clear on the map, nor are they categorised, there are two little challenges still to come in the final kilometres. First, there's a rise at 7% for 250m on cobbles, then 600m at 6.5%. This will shake out some sprinters whilst also giving strong puncheurs a chance of a late attack - guys like Van Avermaet, Sagan, Matthews, Gallopin and Alaphilippe. And of course, as he's heading home, Fabian Cancellara is one to watch on a finish like this.
The last kilometre of the stage is flat though, so whether it's a small group of attackers, or a reduced group that comes to the line, then it should end in a sprint of some sort. No certainty for the sprinters at all then.
The Route
The stage starts in Moirans En Montagne, just north of Lac Leman and the home of FIFA in Nyon. They will cross along the Jura range, and although the area is littered with many tough climbs, and they spend the day between 426 and 902m, they don't really tackle any hard climbs at all. They head north-east mainly and the road rises gently for more or less 100kms until they pass Malbuison, where it start to flatten out and come back down again as they head to the shores of Lac de Neuchatel.
Once on the other side of the lake they start on the drag up the Côte de Muhleberg, a 1.2km hill at 4.8% average, but the road continues to drag up on a nice, wide road through the wooded area outside of Muhleberg for another couple of kilometres. After Frauenkappelen the road starts to descend gently towards Koniz and loops south of Berne and back in to the city.
Along the way the road has a few late challenges for the sprinters. First, with just under 4kms to go they go down a steep descent (right) and through a hairpin bend, over the bridge then arc back right along by the river.
As they approach the 2km to go sign they go around in a loop rising up through a cobbled section, which rises at 7% for 250m (below), they approach from the right, climb up to the top left then turn sharply left on to flat section for 250m as they cross the river again.
Once over the bridge they start to climb up the hill towards the finish they hit a section of 600m at 6.5% just as they approach the 1km to go kite (below). This is a hard pull up the hill, make no mistake about it - any sprinters that were already in trouble coming up the cobbled hill above will really start to feel it here.
It could play in to the hands of a late attacker, but I can't see many sprinters making it with the leaders at the top of this hill, but if they do hang in there, the last kilometre is flat and dead straight for a sprint.
Route Map
Profile
Last Kilometres
Finish Map
Contenders and Favourites
I was curious to see how the bookies would price this one and I was both surprised, and not surprised. Bet365 seemed to think that the likes of Cav, Kittel and Greipel have a big chance of winning here, PP were almost as convinced, but when they saw Bet365's prices come out, they too cut the sprinters. That I was really surprised with - I think the sprinters will really struggle on this finishing circuit around Berne. It's going to be choatic, there are narrow roads, descents, bridges to go under, cobbled sections at over 6%, a long drag before the 1km to go marker.. It's going to be very hard to control and set up any of the sprinters.
The sprinters will need to have a lot of team-mates to try to drag them up the cobbled section, over the bridge and then up the final drag, and I think that will be too big an ask to keep it all together. There will be lots of attacks and the strong puncheurs will have an advantage over the sprinters I think. So I think the bookies have it all wrong with making the sprinters so short.
The one sprinter I would give a chance to though is Alexander Kristoff - the Katusha man, as you know, has been one I have been following quite closely, waiting to back him. He was too short I thought though at 7/1 in the sprint a few days ago, but he did land a podium spot. He has the power, and the team I think, to possibly be one of the few sprinters there at the finish. You don't win Flanders without being able to kick it over lumpy, cobbled climbs, and he is the one sprinter I'd like to keep onside.
John Degenkolb of course is also a cobble master, but it's not so much the cobbles that are the problem here, rather the hills. He is coming in to form it seems with his fine 4th in stage 14, and he could be one that could drag himself over with the leaders and could come close in the sprint. I think it might be just a touch too hard for him thought.
Peter Sagan is naturally the favourite for the stage though, the man can do almost anything, and cobbles, tricky descents, short & punchy climbs, longish, steep drags and sprint finishes are all up his street. He is almost certainly going to be there as they approach the final drag, the problem he might face will be multiple attacks coming at him - he can't chase down everything, and one might stick.
He's best price 5/1 with PP (paying 5 places) and that looks like a bet that should bring a return, even if one or two guys get away he should be one of the first 5 home. He'll have Kreuziger, Gatto and Majka to help look after him in the run in, and he would be a likely candidate for a late attack himself that could take it. He could even go in the break of the day to try to take the points and the stage. And if it comes to a reduced sprint amongst a bunch of puncheurs, well he'll win that too.
And of course the Swiss riders are short prices too for tomorrow. Fabian Cancellara has of course been looking forward to this stage, maybe it was the reason we have not really seen anything of him in this race so far? Has it all been for this stage? Trek are saying that they are going all out to try to win it with him, and it's possible that as he knew he probably wasn't going to win the TT that he took it relatively easy. He has been showing himself a bit more at the front lately, taking a few big turns.
This run in would have favoured the Cancellara of old, a hilly run-in with a cobbled section and a possible sprint finish. Almost like the finish in Strade Bianche, but not as steep as that. Of course he has a chance, but 13/1? Not at that price - I'd need 25/1 or more I think to get interested, he has done practically nothing so far in this race, or since his 2nd in the Tour of Flanders.
Michael Albasini has been keeping a very low profile too though, we've not seen a lot of him either, just sometimes on the run in on the punchier days he was there helping Matthews. But knowing OBE they have pencilled this one in the roadbook with months, to try to win it for Alba.. He's a very popular member of the team and they'd dearly love to win the stage for him. He has a fantastic record when he races in Switzerland, it really does seem to lift his performance levels when he competes on home soil, and this sort of run-in to Berne should suit him too..
A punchy cobbled bit, the drag up to the 1km, perfect for an Alba attack.. or he can just mark wheels - Peter Sagan's for example and maybe get dragged to the finish where he'd have a chance of a top 5 in the sprint. The 28/1 with Bet365 is the best price, but they are only paying 3 places, Boyles are paying 4 but are 25/1, but PP are just 18/1, but are paying 5 places (they were as short as 12/1 when they came out first). Corals are just 14/1.
Michael Matthews might have a chance on this sort of finish too and he has of course a stage win to his name already in this race. But that came from the breakaway, when it has come to sprint finishes he hasn't really featured at all, so I'm going to leave him, I think he'll be working for Albasini.
Edvald Boasson Hagen is suited to this sort of finish too, and if DDD had any sense they would put the team to work to try to win the stage for him. Cav has four wins, Cummings has one, and I think EBH would be their best chance of a victory here. Julian Alaphilippe was furious with the way things turned out today, as were his backers who were on at big prices like 100/1.. He looked to have the stage in the bag when he attacked away from the leaders, he was looking so strong. But he had a problem with his chain, I think he said afterwards he dropped his chain something like 10 times on the descent and suddenly he was left behind. This should be one that he likes too but will he be too tired after today's efforts? Possibly.. but he did look so strong and he might race on anger and frustration which could see him attack away on the final hill.
If that doesn't work out for Alaphilippe though, or if he decides out on the road that he just is a bit too tired after today, then maybe Petr Vakoc could step up to the plate on a finish that looks just right for him. At 125/1 with Bet365 he's worth a small bet I think. I don't think the GC men will be fighting for the stage win tomorrow, but they will be near the front, watching for time gaps.
Tony Gallopin at 50/1 with Bet365 looks an interesting bet for a late attack, he's just 25/1 with PP. Greg Van Avermaet will have his chances on a finish like this too and could be dragged in to position by some really strong guys in Tejay, Caruso, Bookwalter, Moinard and Schar who is racing on home soil.. And don't forget, BMC are a Swiss-based team and would dearly love to win a stage on home soil as it might help flush out a new sponsor for the team for next year. The 14/1 with PP, paying 5 places looks tempting.
Alejandro Valverde, Sondre Holst Enger, Tom Jelte Slagter - all riders who could have a chance. Has the breakaway any chance? Sure it has, but I think there are too many teams interested in making this a charge through the streets for victory in order for it to be reeled in on time.
I like quite a few, so will scatter a few bets around at various prices. Sagan probably wins again, but I'm going to take him on with a few I've named above, I like some of their chances.
Recommendations:
0.25pts each-way on Tony Gallopin at 50/1 with Bet365
0.5pts each-way on Michael Albasini at 25/1 with Boyles paying 4 places or 28/1 with Bet365 if you don't have Boyles.
0.25pts each-way on Petr Vakoc at 125/1 with Bet365
1pt each-way on Alexander Kristoff at 8/1 with PP paying 5 places.
Match-Bets
Kristoff to beat Greipel, Groenewegen to beat McLay, Sagan to beat Coquard - 2pts on the treble at 9/4 with Bet365
Degenkolb to beat Matthews - 2pts at 10/11
Degenkolb to beat Coquard - 1pt at 7/4 with PP
Back Groenewegen to beat McLay at 5/4 for 8pts with Paddy Power and back McLay to beat Groenewegen for 8pts at 6/5 with Bet365 to have a guaranteed return of +2pts or +1.6pts.
Vakoc to beat Vichot - 2pts at 8/11 with PP
Back Laporte to beat Bennett - 11pts at 8/13 with Paddy Power and back Bennett to beat Laporte for 5pts at 5/2 with Bet365 - for a guaranteed return of +1.7pt or +1.5pts