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Published on Sunday, 10 July 2016 13:50

TDF Stage 10

Escaldes-Engordany to Revel  

Tuesday 10th July, 167kms 

The day after the rest day is always an interesting one, and this is an interesting profile to say the least. They leave Andorra where they spent the rest day, and in order to get out of Andorra they have to climb up and over a Cat 1 climb straight away, the Port d'Envalira, the highest point of this year's race. 

What a crazy start to the stage today with action right from the flag-drop as was expected. What wasn't expected though was for Alejandro Valverde and Alberto Contador to attack in pursuit of the main break on the very first climb with Henao in tow. Henao was quickly called back by Sky, but Valerde and Contador pushed on. Something started to look amiss with Contador pretty quickly though as he suddenly looked visibly in trouble and was dropped from the break. Contador spent the next hour back and forth to the car, looking visibly distressed and looked all the world like a man ready to abandon, especially when word went around that he reportedly had a fever in the morning. 

Up front, Valverde was like a big anchor around the break as Sky kept chasing, until eventually he was told 'F**k off* by the others in the break and he sat up. Majka, Pinot, De Gendt and the rest pressed on and quickly built up a big lead, heading towards 7mins at one point. Suddenly, but not unexpectedly, Contador abandoned, a sad end to his race, but probably the right move - go rest, recover and try to win the Vuelta. 

Annoyingly, several guys who we had been backing this week like Clement and Rui Costa got in the break, along with the likes of Vuillermoz, Frank, Grmay, Bennett, Grmay, Tom Dumoulin and Sagan. The break's gap fluctuated, it came under 6 mins and suddenly the peloton sat up, and the gap exploded up to 8'20" as it looked like they couldn't care less about the stage win again. Very, very annoying.

As the race hit the final climb Dumoulin of all people took off to win the stage, followed by Costa, revelling in the thunderstorm and Majka just behind him. Behind, the GC battle finally exploded in to action and it was mainly down to Dan Martin. He attacked repeatedly in an effort to break away from Froome, but just couldn't snap the elastic. Froome covered every move, from Mollema, Porte, and Yates, but Quintana played poker face and did nothing. No attack, no probes, nothing. Looks like he either isn't feeling 100% this week and was happy to not waste any energy, or he really is gambling it all on the final week in the Alps. 

Martin was superb, but did too much too early, he was just hanging in there at the finish, but hang in there he did when on previous Tours he'd have been back with Rodriguez and Mollema. I'm happy with my two picks from today, Porte looked really strong and could yet have a say in this race, it's just a pity he has lost so much time unnecessarily. The 3/1 on him to beat Contador in the GC looks pretty good now, he just needs to stay on his bike all the way to Paris. 

The matchbets did the business for us though, Martin and Porte's double was a fantastic 3/1, gave us another small profit of over 3pts, we'll keep ticking along picking up bits, the big one will hopefully come. So Froome still leads, Yates is doing magnificent considering he was on his face a few days ago and the top ten on the GC is starting to take shape now. Mollema is looking good and Purito is surprising me every day. Still all to play for though and it should be a great next two weeks.

Oh and Movistar have moved in to the lead in the team classification and are favourites with the bookies in places. If you are worried about it, you could have a hedge with Sky, but the way the stages are unfolding, Movistar look like they will have Quintana and Valverde up there every day, with the likes of Herrada, Anacona and the Izagirre's possibly stealing time in breaks too. Sky look like they will be using up their matches before the tops of climbs protecting Froome and like yesterday, their men might be rolling in 1, 2 3 and more minutes down after doing their job. 

On to stage 10 then after the rest day and the Port d'Envalira is the Souvenir Henri Desgrange of this year's race, rising to 2,408m, and once over the top they enter back in to France after 30kms. It could be that we see some very strong climbers and rouleurs get away on the very first climb and build up a big lead and then it's just going to be a day long chase on a route that's mostly downhill. 

There is a surprise in store though with 9kms to go with the short and sharp ascent of the Cote de Saint Ferreol, a hill used for motor racing frequently by the local motor sport nuts. It was also used in the 2013 TDF stage 13 at the very start of the stage as they left Castres on their way to Ax 3 Domaines where Chris Froome won.

The hill averages 6.6% for nearly 2kms, and with just 7kms to go from the top, four of which are descending, it will be a perfect launching pad for a late attack from the puncheurs. Some of the stronger sprinters will be looking to hang on though, as if they do there's a flat run in to the finish and another sprint opportunity. 

The Route

They head north out of Andorra, and from the start they are climbing - they start the stage already at 1,200m and over the next 24kms climb to twice that height. The categorised part of the climb of the Port d'Envalira, a Cat 1 climb, is 22.6kms long at an average of 5.5%, and it's a pretty steady climb all the way to the top. Once over the top they descend for the best part of 60kms, crossing back in to France after 30kms. 

They continue to descend gently for the next 100kms or so, with four or five lumps and bumps along the way, but really it's pretty featureless, and will probably be quite boring until 10kms to go. The pace will be furious as they charge towards Revel, and just as they are entering the town they turn right and head away from the finish, out on a loop towards Saint Ferreol. There, they start on the Cote de Saint Ferreol with 9kms left, turning off the D629 and on to the D151. It's a Cat 3 climb of 1.8kms at an average of 6.6%, but the last 500m average a steeper 10%. It winds its way up the hill on a well surfaced, smooth road, so it should be extremely fast. 

There's a flat kilometre at the top before they start to descend for 3kms on a good roads, as far as Pont Crouzet, they turn left and then start the straight run back towards the finish in Revel. There's just one roundabout to negotiate on the run-in and the road narrows a little in places, but otherwise it's a pretty fast and straight-forward finish to the stage.  

The weather could play an important part in the stage though as they are going to be riding in to a strong cross/headwind all day, with wind speeds of around 20-25kmph. It is also going to be showery with heavier showers in the morning giving way to lighter showers in the afternoon. It will make it a hard day out front for any breakaway and a bit sketchy in places for the peloton, they will need to take care. 

Contenders and Favourites

This should be an interesting stage - it starts with a monster climb that takes them to the highest point in the race at 2,408m after just 24kms, then it's more or less downhill or flat for the next 160kms. With 180kms gone they hit an uncategorised bump, followed quickly after that by probably the deciding moment of the stage, the Cote de Saint Ferréol. The climb averages 6.6% for 1.8kms, but kicks up in places to over 7%. The question is will the sprinters teams have reeled in the break of the day in time for a sprint?

The break has a big chance again, the day after a rest day, a lot of guys will have been taking it easy on the last few mountain stages too, cruising in with the Grupetto, so you will have some fresh guys ready to go here. And the start will help the baroudeurs get a nice lead early on - they have to climb for nearly 23kms right from the start, and the first 12kms only average 3.7%, which means good, powerful riders will be able to power up the climb and build a healthy lead as the peloton fill the road. It gets steeper for the last 10kms of the climb, but still only around 6% average, so they should be able to keep a good steady tempo going. Then it's a drag race for the next 160kms or so. They might look to bring them back for the intermediate sprint after 122kms, but it's likely the catch will be made in the last 20kms or so. 

Looking at the break, it will be some of the usual suspects who are starting to show they are stronger than others. But also, some will be starting to come in to the race now having not shown much for the first week. Some will be riding themselves in to form and will be looking forward to a chance to get up the road. France have yet to win a stage, as do Italy and Spain, and only six teams have won stages, so expect some DS's to be putting the pressure on next week for results. 

Guys like Adam Hansen, Bert Jan Lindeman, Jurgen Roelandts, Cyril Gautier, Jeremy Roy and Thomas Voeckler could be on the attack, as could Steve Cummings and Jan Barta, big diesel engines. They could get a big lead and if so, watch for Cummings with a late attack to steal the stage. The weather looks like it will be against them though with a cross/headwind for the whole day as they head north, the wind of up to 25kmph will be coming from the northwest. This will make it a very hard day in the break and might put some off attacking. 

Now the question is, who is going to pull them back? Tinkoff will be expected to do all the chasing, as Peter Sagan is the favourite for the stage, and with Contador now out of the race, the sole team focus will be on stage wins and the green jersey. They will look to control it, but will need help. Sky will work, to keep Froome out of trouble, but it may be that they will need help from the other sprinters teams. But I think there might be a problem there - I don't think Kittel or Cavendish will make it over the final hill with the leaders, and their teams probably know that, so they may not work and save themselves for Wednesday instead. 

André Greipel will be on the limit too I think, Lotto may actually have better chances with someone like Van Avermaet or Roelandts over that finishing course, so they may pull a little too. Matthews has been really poor so far in this race as far as I'm concerned, as has Gerrans, I'm not sure either of them will be involved, although they surely will start coming good soon. And with Yates second in the GC I can't see OricaBE over-exerting themselves either. 

I think it might be down to Direct Energie to help out, as I actually think Bryan Coquard has a big chance to finally take his stage win here. He is light enough and strong enough to get over the hill with the leaders, and in a head-to-head sprint with Sagan I think he could take him. They may get help from Katusha though, Alexander Kristoff seems to be coming in to form, his 4th place in the last sprint in stage 6 was his best result of the race and showed that he is getting closer. A man that has won Flander can get over punchy little hills like this, I think he has a chance of going close if it comes to a sprint amongst a reduced group. At 18/1 with Bet365 he's worth an each-way bet I think. 

John Degenkolb of old would have been up here I think, but he still isn't near 100% from what i can see. Edvald Boassen Hagen might be the man for Dimension Data today, he would like this punchy finish, but I don't think he would beat Sagan or Coquard in a sprint. Jasper Stuyven might try attacking away on the final climb, as could Tony Gallopin or Julian Alaphilippe, and we could also see the likes of Arthur Vichot, Edward Theuns, Samuel Dumoulin or Fabian Cancellara involved in the finish.

Sam Bennett looks to be getting better, he has been finishing with the Grupettos on the mountain stages, even managing to pull wheelies on the Tourmalet on stage 8 - maybe he's getting better and might have a chance of staying with them over a bump like this.. I was originally going to suggest backing him at 350/1 with Bet365 as the price was just so big, but I've heard he was put under anaesthetic to fix his finger and it takes quite a while to leave your system. He is ok with steady tempos, but sudden accelerations put him in trouble, so I'm going to say don't back him yet now. 

If course the other thing to bear in mind is that the GC men will have to watch out for potential splits and time gaps on this run in, so expect Sky, Movistar and Etixx to at the front looking to keep their men safe. There are a bunch of roundabouts as they enter the outskirts of Revel with about 10kms to go as they head to the Cote de Saint Ferreol, so expect the GC men to be bossing it here, the sprinters teams will probably be able to sit in until they get out of the way with 3kms to go.

Once over the top the run in is pretty straight through the last 3kms, but with about 500m to go they kick right, then left through a chicane-like section of road. The GC teams should have backed off by then, and the sprinters teams taken over - you will need to be in the first 10 coming through the left and right bends to have a chance of winning. I think Sagan, Coquard and Kristoff will be there and Sagan is the obvious favourite, but I fancy Coquard and the 13/1 with Bet365 is worth backing. Kristoff could make podium too. That's as long as the break haven't been let go and the peloton decides to have another day off with Mont Ventoux and that TT on the horizon..! 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Bryan Coquard at 13/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Alexander Kristoff at 18/1 with Bet365 

0.1pt each-way on Sam Bennett at 350/1 with Bet365 Don't back him yet.. 

Matchbets

Kristoff to beat Greipel - 2pts at 5/6 with Bet365 

Sam Dumoulin to beat Degenkolb - 2pts at 5/6 with Bet365