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Published on Monday, 27 June 2016 00:50

TDF 2016 Points Jersey Preview

The battle for the other jerseys in the Tour de France are as keenly fought as the battle for the yellow jersey, with the sprinters jersey and the KOM jersey two of the most famous and iconic in all of cycling. There have been careers and legends made by winners of both of these jerseys over the years.   

The points classification is the third oldest of the currently awarded jersey classifications. Introduced in the 1953 Tour de France, it was first won by Fritz Schär. The classification was added to draw the participation of the sprinters as well as celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Tour. Although the best climber of the TDF was first recognised in 1933, the distinctive polka dot jersey was not introduced until 1975 when Lucien Van Impe took it home. 

The white jersey for the best young riders competition was first introduced in 1975 also, when a young man named Francesco Moser won it that year, while finishing 7th overall in the GC. There are four riders who have won the race overall while also winning the White Jersey - Laurent Fignon in 1983, Jan Ullrich in 1997, Alberto Contador in 1997 and Andy Schleck in 2010. 

Points Jersey  

Just like in the Vuelta and the Giro, the sprinters' points jersey isn't always won by the best 'pure' sprinter in the race as there are so many hills and climbs to get over along the way. Peter Sagan, for example, goes for his fifth Green Jersey in a row despite not being the best out-and-out sprinter by a long shot in any of the last four editions of the race.

He has now won the jersey four times, but the last time he has tasted victory in a stage was in the 7th stage of the 2013 edition in Albi. His secret is consistent top five placings though. As always in the TDF, there are lots of tough hilly finishes that help a punchy sprinter like Sagan and he won in 2015 by 66pts from Greipel and by almost 150 points in 2014 from Kristoff.

There was a big change last year to the way the points were awarded in the Green Jersey competition in what looked like an attempt to make it a more open competition for the other sprinters, and not just Peter Sagan's for the taking again.  “We want to give more of a bonus for those who win,” Christian Prudhomme said about the change to the points structure, referring to the fact that Sagan strolled to victory in the jersey in 2014 without winning a single stage. They have changed it slightly again for 2016, changing the classification of stages and the number of riders who will get points, reducing the flat stages from 15 points winners from 20 last year. 

They are now awarding 50 points to the winner and 30 to the runner up meaning, the difference from 1st to 2nd is a large 20 points, compared to just 10 under the old rules. Points for the pure sprint stages are now awarded as follows - 50, 30, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 — compared to what it was previously: 45, 35, 30, 26, 22, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, so it's most definitely weighted towards the stage winners.

The number of points up for grabs depends on the stage classification, and also this year they are awarding the same intermediate points for all stages, last year there were points awarded only to the first 5 for the second category stages and only for the first 3 for the third category stages. 

For the stages they are calling 'Without particular difficulty' ("sans difficulté particulière") they are awarding points for the first 15 riders in the following allocation: 50, 30, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2. For the Intermediate Sprints (marked TV on the route maps) there are points for the first fifteen riders compared to ten places last year: 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 - with 20 points up for grabs for each TV they could play a big part in the outcome of the jersey.

For stages they are calling 'Hilly' ("parcours accidenté"): there are points for the first 15 places: 30, 25, 22, 19, 17, 15, 13, 11, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2. 

For stages they are calling 'Big Difficulty' ("grande difficulté"): there are points for the first 15: 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1

The Contenders

Peter Sagan - 8/11 favourite

Peter Sagan is a a green jersey machine as you can see from his results just from the last four seasons. Winner of green at the TDF in 2015, 2014, 2013 and 2012, winner of the points jersey at Tirreno-Adriatico and the Tour of California and 2nd in the Tour de Suisse behind Richeze. Winner of five races this year, including the Tour of Flanders and Gent Wevelgem, he has also finished in the top four of another twelve races. 

For the last three years he has been one of the banker bets for me at the Tour, but what about this year? Well last year he was just about backable at 10/11. This year he is best price 8/11 with Paddy Power, but generally is 4/7. 8/11 is a pretty short price to be taking for a race that lasts three weeks, with all the problems and complications that can happen in the first stage, yet alone over 21 of them. 

He looks the winner all over again though, once again he should finish the race, when most have gone home, and once again he'll be picking up intermediate and finish line sprints on some stages when the sprinters are struggling in the autobus somewhere. It's unlikely he'll score points in the first stage though, which might push out his price a little, I can't imagine he'll shorten. Stage 2 will be to his liking though with the uphill finish, so we could see him finally break his drought with a stage win. 

And there are loads of other stages suited to him - stage 4 to Limoges with it's lumpy finish and uphill sprint, stage 10 to Revel with the testing little lump just before the finish, stage 16 with it's tough finish in to Berne, and lots of intermediate points can be picked up along the way. His biggest danger will be one of the powerful sprinters who can climb a bit hanging in there with him on some of these stages, but also scoring points on the flat sprints too. Of course he may go out and score points on some of the sprint stages, but with the quality line-up of speedsters, he may be settling for the 16-10pt sort of range. Still, it might be enough to make the difference at the end of the race. 

Marcel Kittel - 5/1 Best Price

Whether Kittel can win this jersey or not probably depends on whether you think he's going to last the three weeks or not. I called it in the Giro that he would not stay the three weeks, and indeed he didn't, hope I put some of you off backing him. If he does last all the way to Paris he has a big chance of winning this years's jersey. He could theoretically have a field day here, with stages 1, 3, 6, 11, 13 all looking like being sprinters' stages, and of course the final stage on the Champs Élysées. These are the sprints with the most points (50) for the winners too, so he could build a big lead.

He is in such great form this year, and with the EQS machine in front of him, he is sure to land at least one of the first three sprint stages, if not all three of them. It may be that he is looking at the race this year thinking - let's go as far as stage 13 and see how I'm doing. If he has a good lead in the competition, and if the 50pts on offer for the Champs Elysées finish could seal it on the final day, then he is surely going to try to fight through the pain of the final week. Eliminations might be his biggest danger though, especially if the team have deserted him, in favour of looking after Dan Martin. 

If it's the case that for some reason he hasn't landed at least two or three of the sprints by stage13, he might consider going home and preparing for the Worlds, which, although are three months away, are his biggest target this year. And that's your dilemma - take the 5/1, knowing it could be 3/1 or less after the first stage or two, or back it and maybe lay it back at a shorter price, which is probably what I'd recommend. He was well beaten though just this Sunday by André Greipel in the German National Championships, not a great sign a week before the Tour. 

André Greipel - 9/1 Best Price

28/1 for this same prize last year, he confounded my beliefs that he sometimes starts slowly in big stage races by landing two out the first four stages. He went on to win four stages in total, including the final sprint on the Champs Élysées, yet it was still not enough to beat Sagan, who had not won a single stage. 

On his day, Greipel is probably one of the best out-and-out sprinters in the peloton, and comes here with a pretty decent sprint train to help him out too. Greipel has always been a very strong-willed and focused rider and you would think he should be right up there in all the flat sprints. He is in superb form this season, with seven wins to his name, including a hat-trick at the Giro, and will like a lot of these finishes. He also wrapped up his preparation for the Tour in the best possible fashion, winning the German Nationals from Walscheid of Giant-Alpecin and Marcel Kittel, a result that will fill him with confidence as he takes to the start line of stage 1 in his German champs kit. 

He pulled out of the Giro with only 12 stages gone, the day he landed his 3rd stage win, and despite rolling out the party line about wanting to save legs for the Tour, he didn't seem to look happy about it. I'm sure he'll be very pleased with that decision though if he lands the opening stage and the yellow jersey.

Will he be able to beat Kittel in any of the straight out sprints, with their full lead-out teams involved? I'm not convinced he'll beat Sagan in any of the hilly, punchy stages, so he could be picking up scraps for the three weeks, and it may not be enough. 

Alexander Kristoff - 18/1 Best Price

What  a difference a year makes for Alexander Kristoff, this time last year he was the 4/1 2nd favourite behind Sagan, this year he is four times that price at 14-18/1. From being one of the most feared riders on the planet, it looks like it hasn't really clicked for big Alex this year. I say that, but he has eight wins to his name, one more than Greipel. 

But those races have been nothing to shout home about. Three stage wins in Qatar, but against limited and underprepared opposition, even more so for his two stage wins in Oman. There were near (and far) misses in the Classics, but his biggest win of the season was probably in the Tour of California, where he finally got the better of Sagan, Coquard and co. 

He doesn't seem to have the top-end speed to beat Kittel or Greipel, he will struggle to get over the lumpy stuff as well as Sagan, so like Greipel, he will be scrapping for scraps from the big boys table. I think he will get lots of top 10 placings, but that may not be enough. He was also beaten in the National Champs by Edvald Boasson Hagen who outfoxed him.

Mark Cavendish - 18/1 Best Price

6/1 last year, 18/1 this year, a visual indicator of Cavendish's slide towards retirement? Only three wins this season, probably the lowest total of any of the sprinters in this list, and two of those were in the Tour of Croatia and Tour of Qatar, not exactly the top level. The closest he has come to a decent result this season was 2nd in the Scheldeprijs.

Dimension Data have a poor leadout and Cavendish has not been his old self this season either, beaten far too many times for my liking to see any value in his odds at 18/1, I'm not even sure he'll finish the race. His defeat at the hands of Adam Blythe in the British nationals sprint finish is also worrying - if he can't beat Blythe, what chance has he of beating Kittel or Greipel?

Winner of the Points competition in 2011 before Sagan took over, he has also finished 2nd three times and 4th twice, I can see him maybe winning a stage, but I won't be backing him to do so I think until I see him impress in the first few stages, his sprint in the Nationals was pretty average. 

Nacer Bouhanni - 18/1 Best Price

The boxer will scrap and fight his way to plenty of placings in the top 10, he is similar to Sagan in that he can fight it out with the fast sprinters on the flat, but also can get over some of the smaller lumps and bumps on the punchier stages so should score consistently. Bouhanni has never finished the TDF though, he only made it as far as stage 6  in 2013 and stage 5 in 2015. 

Seven race wins this year, he's right up there with the top scorers of the season, and he has won races in lots of different situations, in Andalucia, Catalunya, Paris-Nice, Picardie and Criterium du Dauphiné, with another 13 top 6 finishes. He is looking really good this year and has beaten Greipel, Kristoff, Matthews, Bennett and Hofland already. If he can finish his first TDF then he has a chance of a top 3 placing I think, he has a great leadout with him and he will be more agressive and daring than some of his rivals, so he could notch a good few top 3 placings, especially on some of the tougher stages.

He is also good at picking up intermediate sprint points, be it from getting in breaks for the early ones or launching out of the pack for the later ones. He could do well in the first three stages, so I think if you are interested in backing him, back him pre-race, in case he shortens up quickly.  

Bryan Coquard - 22/1 Best Price

The jolly little Frenchman has had a briilant year so far with ten sprint wins (and a prologue win in the Boucles de la Mayenne). He has also finished in the top six of another nine races, including two good performances in the Amstel Gold and Brabantse Pijl and 2nd in Dwars Door Vlaanderen (which he should've won but celebrated too early). He has won the points jersey in Besseges, Dunkirk and Mayenne, and 2nd in the Circuit Sarthe this year. 

He was 5th in this competition in 2015 and 3rd in 2014, he has a real love in this race of going after lots of intermediate sprint points, something that has wound up the likes of Sagan in the past. He has raised his game this year to such a level though that he may back off the intermediate sprint points hunting and concentrate on trying to win the stages. 

He showed in the Amstel Gold and Brabantse Pijl that he is very capable of getting over tough hills near the finish of races and I think he could have a really good TDF this year. He has finished the race twice, so there aren't any worries of him going the distance, the only thing I'd be a little worried about is if Sagan is running away with it again, he might start thinking about the Olympics or World's and pack it in. But I hope not, at 22/1, I'm having some of that each way. 

John Degenkolb - 40/1 Best Price

Still recoving from his horrific crash at the start of the season, degenkolb is starting to show some signs of form, but is still a long way off his best and I wouldn't be surprised to see him ride half the race and call it quits, it looks like this season is going to be preparation for a better season in 2017. 14/1 last year, 40/1 this year, I don' think he'll feature in the first three for this. 

Michael Matthews - 33/1 Best Price

The Australian has had a mixed season, winning prologues, getting wins from a disqualified Bouhanni in Paris-Nice. He hasn't raced a whole lot this year though, only 22 days in total, and has only notched 2 sprint wins. He was off the pace in the Tour de Suisse and was only 5th in Amstel Gold and Brabantse Pijl (behind Coquard) and I am not sure he'll be scoring enough points in this year's Tour to put him in the top 3 of the Points comp. He is capable of a stage win though on some of the lumpier days, if they can shake off the faster sprinters he'd be one of the likely winners in reduced sprints.  

Recommendations:

I think Sagan will probably win it again this year, but there is not much value in him at 8/11. Instead I'm going to wait a few stages to see if his price goes out a little closer to evens, and instead I'm going to have a go at one of my current favourite riders, Bryan Coquard - I think he will have a big race and could land a top 3 spot at 22/1. André Greipel should complete the top 3. 

1pt each-way on Bryan Coquard at 22/1 with Skybet

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