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Published on Tuesday, 27 June 2017 14:50

King of the Mountains Preview 

The Tour de France King of the Mountains polka dots jersey is one of the most keenly fought competitions in cycling outside of the overall GC. It's the second oldest classification awarded in the TDF, first introduced in 1933. 

That first classification was won by a Vicente Trueba, but there was no jersey awarded to the competition leader until 1975, when a white jersey with red polka dots was awarded for the first time and was won by Lucien Van Impe.

The points for the King of the Mountains is scored based on the category of climb that they go over, from the lowest Category 4, to the highest HC or 'Haute Category' climbs. They have made a minor change this year to the scoring, awarding just 20pts now for a HC climb, from 25 last year. 

The first over a HC climb scores 20 points, then 15,12,10, 8, 6, 4, 2. A Cat 1 climb scores 10pts for the first over, down to 1pt for 6th. It used to be that if the stage finished on a categorised climb the points are doubled, but that has changed this year with double points only available for the 18th stage finish on Izoard. So that's a whopping 50pts are on offer for winning that particular stage and could go a long way towards deciding the winner of the jersey.

Cat 2 climbs score from 5pts to 1pt for the first five, Cat 3 climbs just 2pts and 1pt and Cat 4 climbs just 1pt.  The difficulty rating for a climb depends on either it's length or its steepness (or both) but also on its position in the stage - they are given a higher rating the later in a stage the climb is. 

This is always a very difficult market to bet on - you don't know who is targeting the jersey at the start and it could be any of about 20 or 30 guys who could have designs on it, and sometimes someone can decide to switch targets mid-race when their GC plans go up in smoke like Mikel Landa in the Giro. It could be decided by a stage or two when a breakaway rider mops up loads of points and then does what he can to defend it over the remaining stages. Stages 8, 9, 12, 13, 15, 17 and 18 look to be the key stages for the breakaway types to target for KOM ambitions, with lots of points available out on the road. 

Or it could come down to a GC man like Froome, Porte or Quintana just racking up point after point while taking stage victories, especially on the summit finish to Izoard where double points (40pts) are awarded - Froome won it in 2015 this way. But this year's route doesn't have very many summit finishes at all, so it's more likely to be won out on the road than at the finish. 

Rafal Majka won this in a canter last year, beating Thomas de Gendt by 79pts, with  Pantano back in 3rd, Majka's second time winning it in three years. Last year Quintana, Froome, Contador, Rolland and Aru were the first five in the betting, and the highest placed finisher of those was Froome in 18th place with just 22pts!!! Nairo Quintana, the 11/2 favourite scored a paltry 13pts during the race. Majka was something like 33/1 to take it and was pretty friendless...  

This year's competition looks difficult as always to call, the key stages could see a lot of points hoovered up by breakaway riders, and we could see the points very well spread around. But with only three summit finishes in the race, and the Souvenir Henri Desgrange likely to be taken by one of the GC men, the summit finish points are likely to be taken by one of the GC favourites this year.. but will it be enough to take the jersey? The bookies don't seem to think so judging by the order of the betting. 

The Contenders 

Thibaut Pinot - 7/2 Best Price 

This is an interesting choice for favourite for the TDF, but this is a direct result of Pinot saying earlier in the season that he was going to forget all about any GC hopes in the TDF and just go for stages and the KOM title. So he has laid his cards out on the table, to do something he has never done before. He has never won the KOM title ever in 32 stage races in his career, but has had plenty of 2nd, 3rds and 4ths as a result of his climbing prowess. 

He rode very well in the Giro this year, taking 4th in the GC, but that was only good enough for 4th in the KOM competition. It sort of makes sense though to see him try his luck at the KOM comp here, he has had a tough Giro in his legs, but was climbing really well. If he can cherry-pick the right stages in this race and deliberately slips down the GC early on to allow himself some freedom, he might be able to go on the attack, while not needing to bury himself day after day. 

I wouldn't be surprised to see him go on the attack on stage 5 to La Planche des Belles Filles, that is just his kind of climb, and the GC favourites might be playing a marking/watching game so early in the race. If he gets the jersey there he may not give it back. Stages 8, 9, 12,13, 17 and 18 are also going to be key to deciding the outcome of this competition, and he loves an attack on a significant day/climb. We will probably see him up the road on stage 18 to Serre Chevalier, taking the points on the Croix de Fer, Telegraphe and Galibier.. If he is true to his word, then he has a good chance for sure, but I might wait until after stage 5 to see how he does before backing him. 

Rafal Majka - 13/2 Best Price

This man knows how to win this prize, having taken it in 2014 and 2016, but was well off the pace in 2015 when it became a GC battle, with Froome, Quintana and Bardet the top 3 in the KOM competition. It looks like it will be different this year, with lots of points out on the road for the taking by the break. Majka to me looks to be the perfect candidate for this competition this year. He is climbing really well, just took the overall at the Tour of Slovenia with a strong ride on the Queen stage when he was just toying with his rivals at the finish. 

Also, the team look to be set up to go after two different prizes, with Sagan getting some help for on the flat stages from the likes of Selig and Bodnar, with Majka getting help in the hills possibly from the likes of McCarthy, Burghardt and Buchmann (who might also be going for the white jersey). Majka is an expert at getting in the right breaks on the right days and knows how to drop guys and finish off stages. 

He also showed his form in the Tour of California, winning the tough stage to San Jose and finishing second in a two-up sprint with Andrew Talansky on Mount Baldy. Incidentally, it was also a race which saw Peter Sagan take Green and a stage win, showing how they can target multiple prizes in races.  

Pierre Rolland - 12/1 Best Price

I used to give Pierre Rolland a hard time and say his best was behind him, went against him in KOM competitions when he has been very short in the betting and so on.. But that was almost out of disappointment that he hadn't really, to me anyway, fulfilled what he is capable of in his career.

I like him as a rider and was a big fan a few years ago, but he has under-delivered in recent years, a fact that made just all too clear when he won the stage in the Giro, people were having to go in to the history books to find the last time he won a race, and almost everybody was delighted with his victory, most of all the Cannondale team who have supported him and pushed him to better things. 

He is sure to be regularly on the attack again like he was in the Giro, he showed in the Route du Sud. that he has come out of the Giro with great legs, winning a great stage solo and only just being pipped to the KOM title by 4pts by Silvan Dillier who was on fire in the race. He can be hit and miss though, and I've just got a sneaking feeling now that Rolland might just focus on a stage victory and time his run to perfection, rather than go for the jersey.. I'm thinking stage 12 to Peyragudes or stage 13 on Bastille day are two he will have his eye on.. 

Thomas de Gendt - 12/1 Best Price

Now hold on a minute.. since when is Thomas de Gendt a 12/1 shot for the TDF King of the Mountains?! Ok, he's a decent climber and loves a break, but the closest he's ever come to winning the KOM jersey in a Grand Tour was the 4th he finished in the competition in the 2012 Vuelta.. Yes, he's done well in races like Paris Nice (won KOM in 2015) and Catalunya (won KOM in 2016) and he won the KOM in the TDU this year, but these are all one-week races where often one or two decent breaks will secure the jersey for you. 

He pulled out of the Dauphiné with two stages to go with an inflamed wrist and didn't finish the Belgian nationals, I wonder is it still bothering him.. Up to then though he had had a brilliant race, winning the first stage solo and holding on to the yellow jersey through the time trial until stage 6. He too is sure to be on the attack quite a bit, but it's possibly for stage victories too.. I'm not so sure he will be coming here with ambitions to win the KOM jersey, more if it happens it happens to start with maybe. So based on that, and his lack of a decent record in Grand Tours over 3 weeks in the KOM competitions he's not a bet for me at just 12/1.

Alberto Contador and Nairo Quintana- 22/1 Best Price

I am bundling the two of these in here to save time - because they are both the same price, and they both have very similar chances in this competition. Unless one of them loses a tonne of time on, or before stage 5 to La Planche, then they are unlikely to target going for this jersey, but instead focus on a top 10, or even top 6 finish. They may go on the attack some stages, but I think like last year, the points will be spread around the GC men, when they do score points and I don't think they'll get enough to trouble the top 3 here. 

Fabio Aru - 25/1 Best Price

Could Aru have a shot at this jersey? Of course he could, he's a decent climber and appears to be in very good shape. If Fuglsang pulls rank in the GC leadership battle, then Aru might get the freedom to go up the road and attack. This could see him win a stage or two, or at least take a lot of points on some of the key mountain stages.

He's been posting pictures of himself training on a number of the climbs, including the Izoard (right) with Alexei Lutsenko and Sestriere. He also showed his shape in the Dauphiné with a strong performance, particularly in stages 6, 7 and 8 where he was not afraid to go on the attack. And then he went and won the Italian road race title last week with a superb performance to beat Ulissi and Nocentini by 41". 

It all depends again on what his ambitions are though, he's not gone for a KOM prize before, it would be a big shift for him to be constantly trying to get in breaks rather than sitting with the GC men, and I think he might just stay put and try attacking late in stages instead. But that probably won't win him the KOM prize.. 

Chris Froome and Richie Porte - 25/1 Best Price

Bundling the two of these together again, as they are the same price and will be riding with exactly the same purpose and tactics. If the race really does become an all-out war on every stage then these two may well take a lot of points between them, on climbs a bit further out from the finish that normally might have been for the break guys.. They might just slip in to the lead positions by accident. But I don't think so, I think they won't rack up enough points at the finish to win it. 

Outsiders and longshots

And then you have a whole bunch of other guys who could have their eyes on this prize rather than wanting to kill themselves for 12th on the GC - guys like Esteban Chaves, Darwin Atapuma, Dan Martin, Robert Gesink, Diego Ulissi, Dani Navarro and Mikel Landa. But who out of that lot, could take it?  It's a pure lottery.. anyone could come out of the woodwork and try early on and then try to hang on to it. Depending on how the GC battle is going they may well get to slip away early in the race and keep attacking, but the likes of Landa and Atapuma might be asked to help their team-mates.  

I think the jersey is going to be a battle between Pinot (he has to at least try to follow through on his promise, or was he just bluffing?!), former winner Rafal Majka and former wearer Pierre Rolland, with possibly the likes of Darwin Atapuma or Fabio Aru having a crack too. The GC men could come close, but I think not close enough and I think Rolland might just stage hunting, something that was hinted at today in their press release too. So, it points to Pinot Vs Majka, and at the prices I'd rather be on Majka at twice Pinot's price. 

Recommendations:

2pts each-way on Rafal Majka at 7/1 with PP