Details: Published on Tuesday, 30 June 2015 21:10

TDF Team Classification

Can AG2R retain their title?

The Team Classification is a prize given to the best team in the race. It was first awarded in 1930, but there are no jerseys to be worn by the winning team, instead the riders get to wear a yellow coloured race number to distinguish them. Sometimes a team will wear a yellow helmet also but that's not a requirement, more a vanity thing. The team classification is calculated by taking the time of the first three members of each team over the line on each stage - time bonuses and penalties are ignored.

AG2R team

This is another tricky market to bet on as an early accident or problem for one of the big teams' leaders could well see the team's placing in the Team Classification slide and their motivation wane. On the other hand, when a team is in great form and their leader is doing well, the whole team can get a lift from that. Working hard for a team leader until late in the stage can often see a number of their riders finish high up on stages, and can help lift them up the team rankings.

It's not really a competition that teams set out to win, but sometimes teams can change tactics in order to try to win the prize if it looks possible - In 2010, Lance Armstrong lost all hope of winning the GC, but he instructed his team to work for the Team prize and by watching their close rivals, Radioshack indeed took home the team prize.

It was a pretty unusual top three in this competition last year, with AG2R winning it from Belkin with Movistar in 3rd. Sky were way back in 7th place after their disastrous Tour with Froome crashing out and Porte getting sick.AG2R of course had two very strong guys who finished high up on all the key stages - Peraud and Bardet, but Gastauer and Kadri played their part too, Kadri winning a tough mountain stage. Belkin were very consistent too with Laurens Ten Dam and Bauke Mollema both finishing in the top 10 of the GC as they were high finishers on most of the big stages and Kruiswijk and Tankink were pretty consistent too.

So who are likely winners of this prize this year? Who are best placed to consistently have 3 guys, whoever they are, finish in the top 3 on every stage?

Team Sky - Froome, Porte, Roche, Kennaugh, Poels, Stannard, Rowe, Thomas, König - 7/2 Favourites

sky maillot The Sky squad announced today is quite a strong one. There were quite a few people surprised to see Nicholas Roche’s name on the squad, but I wasn’t surprised really to see him there. Firstly, there was almost certainly some sort of agreement when he left Tinkoff that he would ride the Tour, so it would have been almost impossible to leave him out. Secondly, he brings a lot to that squad in terms of experience and knowledge.

Brailsford has made him Road Captain and I can see why, the alternative is Richie Porte who isn’t the sharpest tool in the box and the rest are too young or inexperienced. Froome needed a calm and steady head to settle things down when it’s all exploding. Yes, his form has been poor this year (this time last year he had just won the Route du Sud) and he was a big liability in the TTT in the Dauphine, but I expect him to be much fitter, sharper and stronger for the Tour, especially when he will be needed in the third week in the Alps.

Wout Poels was very strong in the Dauphine, taking big pulls just before Froome took off and he should do similar on the long 15km climbs in the Pyrenees. It’s a sign as to how strong this team is that they were able to leave out Deignan and Kiryienka, two very strong guys who would have been useful in the mountains and the TTT.

They have GC favourite and likely top 3 finisher on most of the tough mountain stages in Froome, able lieutenants in Porte, Roche and Kennaugh, but they have never won the team prize in the Tour though. If Froome is concentrating on winning the GC then it's probably not something they'll be overly bothered about again this year.. When going all or nothing for Froome his team-mates can exhaust themselves to a point of almost a standstill on the mountains once they pull over.

The result is that sometimes, someone who was pushing at the front with 6kms to go loses 20 minutes on the stage as they crawl to the finish line. This can ruin their chances in the team prize with other teams maybe taking it a bit steadier and getting three riders home before them. They will need Froome, Porte, Roche and either Kennaugh or Poels to keep something in reserve to finish high up frequently to put them in the running for this prize but I don't think there's much value in them at just 7/2.

Movistar - Quintana, Dowsett, Valverde, Castroviejo, Malori, Izagirre, Herrada, Anacona, Erviti - 9/2

movistarmaillot Movistar are similar to Sky in that if they are working for Quintana then they may wear out their men long before the top of the climbs. The difference though I think is that Quintana may not want to, or need to send his men to the front as often as say Froome or Contador, as we could see a Sky Vs Tinkoff Vs Astana cock-fight like we saw with Tinkoff and Astana in the Giro. Or maybe Astana might want to renew their battle with Tinkoff to see who can pull at the front of the race the longest..

Either way, Movistar have a super strong squad here, full of decent climbers who may not want to get involved in that and may not be as shattered as the other GC teams in the last 5kms of the big stages. They also have some seriously strong rouleurs and time triallists too for the Team Time Trial, no fewer than three new national champions in Dowsett, Malori and Castroviejo.

They also have a few guys who would be up for long range breakaways and if successful can help boost the team's standings in this competition. Quintana has Valverde, who will be high up on most stages, and other guys like Izagirre, Anacona and Herrada who are capable of good rides also on the hilly stages to boost their chances.

Astana - Nibali, Boom, Taaramae, Gruzdev, Grivko, Scarponi, Westra, Kangert, Fuglsang - 4/1

astana maillot It's a very different squad to the one that blew the Giro to pieces and won the Team Classification by 43 minutes, with only Taaramae being part of that squad also. But who's to say they will not try the same thing at the Tour? Astana were just ridiculously strong in the Giro, with Landa, Aru, Tiralongo and the rest of the team just pulverising the peloton day after day. Five stage victories, 2nd and 3rd on the GC, the Youth Jersey and the Team prize - they had a pretty good Giro to say the least.

This is a strong team too and they look ready to fight and cause problems in the first week with names like Westra, Fuglsang, Boom and Nibali, but their squad for high in the mountains looks a little light to me. Grivko, Fuglsang and Scarponi, they're not exactly going to be tearing it to pieces you'd think. They will do well, no doubt, they all seem to be riding SO well this year, but I'm not sure they're going to be top dogs this time around. They could well finish in the top 3 but I'm not sure they can win it, and as most bookies are not offering each-way betting on the team prize they're not worth backing I feel.

Tinkoff-Saxo - Contador, Kreuziger, Basso, Valgren, Tossato, Bennati, Majka, Sagan, Rogers - 11/2

tinkoff maillot Contador is going to be up there on most of the important stages, but what about the rest of them? They have Majka, Kreuziger, Rogers for on the hilly stages and Bennati and Sagan for the flatter stages. Majka has been making noises about how strong he's going to be, so expect a lot of pulling from him and he could finish high up on a lot of stages. Apparently he was very strong in the Polish nationals last weekend, even if he finished only 10th. Also, if Bertie is out the running for what ever reason, Majka can go stage hunting like last year.

Basso and Kreuziger will be working hard for Bertie, but Basso may be doing early work which will see him disappear and roll home 15 minutes or more down. It could be up to the possible last-man Kreuziger to be finishing high up for the team prize purposes. But I think they look the weaker of the top four favourites teams and I think Contador could find himself isolated quite a lot. No bet at 11/2

AG2R - Peraud, Bardet, Vuillermoz, Cherel, Gastauer, Van Summeren, Riblon, Bakelants, Gaudin - 6/1

AG2R maillot Can AG2R pull off a repeat of their surprise win in this competition last year? Well, on the face of it, you'd have to think no, but that might be a mistake to rule them out as I thought they could well be a team that decides that they want to target this prize, to go out and try to retain their title.

In Romain Bardet they have someone who is capable of a top 10 finish on the hilly stages and is also capable of winning a stage like the Pra-Loup stage in the Dauphiné. JC Peraud has just turned 38 last month and he of course will be hoping for a big showing like last year, where he produced a stunning result to finish in 2nd position in the GC. He hasn't been going great of late, but he did win the Criterium International earlier in the season, defeating hot favourite Pinot. He should do well in several of the tough stages.

Alexis Vuillermoz could be the ace in the pack for them though, as he is a very capable climber who is well capable of a top 20 finish in a lot of the mountain stages, He finished 17th on the stage to Pra-Loup in the Dauphiné but finished an excellent 7th place on the Queen Stage to Mont Blanc, he dragged a flagging Bardet back in to contention and they finished just over a minute back on Froome when it looked like it could be a lot more than that at one point. Ben Gastauer will be working hard in the mountains too and as a result should be able to finish high enough in most stages. Jan Bakelants and Chriistophe Riblon are also capable of some good finishes, possibly in breaks too.

And just today, just before I published this live, I spotted on the AG2R website Vincent Lavenu say

"We would like to have another top performance in the team classification, which we won in 2014."

and that's good enough for me. There is no each-way betting with the bookies offering 6/1 but Betfred are 11/2 and offering 1/5 the odds. I think they can top 3 it so that's worth a shot as we should hopefully get our stake back at least.

Cannondale-Garmin - Martin, Hesjedal, Haas, Bauer, Navardauskas, Talansky, Koren, Langeveld, Van Baarle - 18/1

cannondale-G maillot Cannondale-Garmin could be anything in this race - they could go really well, or they could be really awful, thier season has been a little like that. For such a formidable looking squad they have had an awful season so far, with just four victories, Davide Formolo's stage win in the Giro is their only decent win and it saved their race.They finished 5th in the Giro Team Classification, but they were nearly 2 1/2 hours behind Astana!

Dan Martin, Ryder Hesjedal and Andrew Talansky will be their main men and they are all capable of top 20 finishes on most hilly stages, with the added bonus that all three will be likely to go on the attack in either early, long breaks or on late attacks for stage glory. Vaughters has vowed that they will go to cause chaos in this race and will be very aggressive and attack all the time, Martin and Hesjedal are probably two protagonists for that.

They had a shocker in this race last year though, with Alessandro de Marchi their highest placed finisher in 52nd place, and they finished 2nd last in the Team Classification. It is a very different squad who have turned up this year though, they are going to be going far better in the hills and not looking after Sagan like last year, but I can't see them troubling the top 3 in this competition, even at 18/1

LottoNL-Jumbo - Kruiswijk, Gesink, Tankink, Vanmarcke, Martens, Kelderman, Ten Dam, Leezer, Van Emden - 7/1

lottoNL maillot The former Belkin squad have retained some of the backbone of the squad that went so well last year to finish 2nd, just 34 minutes behind AG2R. They may have lost Mollema to Trek and Lard Boom to Astana, but the likes of Kruiswijk, Ten Dam, Tankink and Vanmarcke are back. Add in Robert Gesink and Wilco Kelderman and they have the makings of a very solid and steady team that should be able to pull off consistent rides day after day.

Several of these guys are also capable of going in the long range break away wins which will help and they too could be focused as a team in trying to move up a step in the podium in place of AG2R this year. These will be a very interesting squad to watch in this race, they have had an even worse year than Cannondale, winning only two road races, both won by Moreno Hofland, who isn't even going to the TDF!

I saw they were 11/1 on Betfair on Monday and I thought that looked big, and had 1.5pts on them at that. I'm glad I did as they are best price 7/1 now with PP who are not betting each-way at the moment, but Betfred who are are 6/1 and are paying 1/5 the odds, that's worth a bet each-way I think.

BMC - Van Garderen, Van Avermaet, Caruso, Schar, Dennis, Sanchez, Quinziato, Oss, Wyss - 80/1

bmc maillot BMC are the last team to make it to my shortlist as I really can't see any of the other teams challenging for this prize. BMC will do well in the Team Time Trial, but that won't make a huge difference at the end of the day. Tejay will go well, but after that it's pretty slim pickings for guys who will consistently finish high up on stages. Caruso, Schar, Dennis and Sanchez are all pretty average, and could finish 2 minutes down or 22 minutes down. Quinziato and Oss are big engines for on the flat and attacking but we won't see much of them on the big hills. Van Avermaet will be stage hunting and may not even finish the race as his wife is about to drop their first baby. They are 80/1 though and even that doesn't really appeal to me as I think Tejay will be the only guy in the top 30 every big stage and if he falters they are in big trouble.