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Published on Thursday, 11 July 2019 20:00

TDF 2019 Stage 7

Belfort - Chalon-sur-Saône

Friday 12th July, 230kms 

The longest stage of the Tour sees them head south-west for 230kms to Chalon-Sur-Saone, a town where Sam Bennett sprinted to a fine stage victory ahead of Marcel Kittel and Alexander Kristoff in the 2017 Paris-Nice. 

It's definitely a stage to turn on only for the last  30kms or so, although it is a bit lumpy and bumpy at the start, this looks like a pretty boring stage with an almost completely flat last 85kms. We're not even going to get some exciting cross-wind action probably, it's mostly a headwind of about 11mph all day, which will probably make the stage even more boring. 

Stage 6 Review

Well that was a turn up for the books, 80/1 Dylan Teuns beats 80/1 Giulio Ciccone to take the stage honours on La Planche, after the peloton let a dangerous break with Thomas de Gendt get a lead of almost 9 minutes. The chase started way too late and starting the final climb they had almost 4 minutes and were not for catching. In the end, Teuns proved the strongest, outdoing odds-on Ciccone in the final 200m. 

Behind there was carnage in the closing kilometre. And it was a major surprise to most (except the ardent Welsh G fans - ain't that right Dave!) to see Geraint Thomas finish the strongest out of the GC men. Alaphilippe was sensastional again, attacking the lead group with 800m to go, but G stalked him and waited for the last 100m before just riding past him when he was exploding. 

Thibaut Pinot just failed to land the e/w money for his backers by taking 4th, but it was an impressive showing by him. Nairo Quintana did well too, just 5" back alongside Buchmann, a huge ride by the big German. Fuglsang was one of the most impressive to me though, despite claiming he had pain in his knee and thigh after his crash he still managed to finish 9th, just 9" behind Thomas, alongside Bernal, Landa and Porte. 

Adam Yates and Dan Martin lost 5" more, Uran a further 4", but Kruijswijk was a disappointment, capitulating on the final part and losing 35" to Thomas, his team-mate Bennett not waiting for him and finishing 17" ahead of him. Big loser though was Romain Bardet who finished 1'09" after Thomas and is now almost 3 mins down and almost certainly out of the GC.. time to go KOM hunting Romain... 

The end result was the Yellow Jersey changed hands again, with Giulio Ciccone hanging on by 6" to take it off of Alaphilippe who put in a valiant effort to try to keep hold of it. Tuens moved up 52 placed to 3rd place, and Bennett is now the leading Jumbo rider, just ahead of Thomas, who is the top GC rider. But there are only 30" separating Thomas, Bernal, Porte, Fuglsang, Uran, Woods and Pinot, with Yates just 5" further back. This isn't over yet, and the drop to even money might represent a great laying opportunity, we might see things change as the race goes on.. 

The KOM is still a cloudy picture, but Lotto-Soudal do seem to have designs on it, sending Wellens and TDG in the break again today and they shared the points all day. Alaphilippe is still basically the same price he started at, but Ciccone is now 4/1, Wellens now 7/1, Nibali 8/1 and Teuns 20/1. Bardet has shortened a little to 40/1.

The Route

After the punishment of stage 5, the riders get a semi-rest day, as although it is the longest stage of the race, there's nothing really to challenge them all day and it should end in a bunch sprint in Chalon. Ok, there's a Cat 3 and two Cat 4s to get over during the day, but they come in the first half of the stage and the second half is almost totally flat. 

The last 5kms are almost totally flat, bar a small descent with about 4kms to go, but the route gets a little tricky inside the last 3kms. First, the road narrows with about 2.7kms to go, then they take a hard right to run alongside the train station, then with about 1.7kms to go there's a really tight left hander, almost a u-turn around a roundabout (two pics below). The last 1500m are pretty straight though, just curving gently around the river, on a dead flat and wide road. 

Contenders and Favourites

So on to another sprint then.. well, it should end in a sprint, a hard, long 230kms mostly in to headwind, with limited chances left for sprinters, they won't let this one slip.. It could even be one of those weird days when no one wants to go in the break, as they know they won't have a chance. 

So what can we deduce from the last sprint and how do we see this one going? Well, If DQS do what they did last sprint and JV do what they did in the last sprint, then I can't understand why Groenewegen is 6/4 favourite and Viviani is 7/4. Sure, we thought Groenewegen was the best sprinter here coming in to the race, but the crash changed that and he was not at 100% in the last sprint. Has he recovered enough to justify favouritism? Do you want to take 6/4 to find out? I don't.

Their leadout was non-existant in the last sprint stage, with Teunissen and Groenewegen finishing beside each other in 5th and 6th, one went left, the other went right. If Groenewegen is starting to feel better though (even after that stage today!) then they will surely pull rank on Teunissen and sort out a proper leadout for him this time. WVA is absolutely flying at the moment and together with Tony Martin and Jansen they should be able to form a very powerful leadout for him this time, and if he has the legs he could finish it off. 

DQS were brilliant in the last sprint, Alap helped out with 1km to go, then Morkov and Richeze took over, Richeze showing once again why he is regarded as the best in the business at doing that. Viviani is clearly pumped, he is clearly looking to go on a Green jersey hunt, and I think he had more in his locker on stage 4, I think if anyone had come closer to him he would have kicked again.. he was actually winding down his sprint if you look at the speed graphs in the last 50m, while Ewan was hitting top speed. But could it be that he tails off a little now he has his elusive TDF stage victory and has got the Giro monkey off his back? I don't think so.. I think he will want to show them all he's really the fastest here. 

But I also really like Caleb Ewan for this - I said after stage 4 that he is a stage win waiting to happen, he was the fastest in the sprint but was boxed in. This time he needs to just be a bit wiser and go to Viviani's left, Viviani likes to hog the near side barriers of a sprint, tomorrow it will be the right as the road curves around to the right.

Lotto have a lot of power and are capable of forming a very strong leadout for him, Wellens and De Gendt might be a bit fatigued after today but his main men Roger Kluge and Jasper de Buyst had a day off. I think with a long power sprint like this he can sit in behind someone like Kristoff or Viviani and come late with his devastating speed and could well nick it. He looks a decent each-way bet to nothing at 11/2, I think he will be in the top 3. 

Alexander Kristoff surprised me with his powerful sprint on 4, he showed that he has lost none of his strength or speed, he just couldn't pip Viviani. He got a great leadout from Jasper Philipsen in the last 300m and went early, barrelling down the middle of the road. His strength and power will be a big advantage again on a long sprint like this one, but I'm not sure he has the speed still to beat the fastest guys here. 

And of course we have to think about Peter Sagan as a major contender again, he has the power and most importantly the positioning skills to get himself in to the best positions in order to strike. He said after stage 4 that he picked Kristoff's wheel as he thought it would be the best one, but I think he might jump on Viviani's wheel tomorrow and see if he can come past him.. Only I am not sure he'll be able to, he didn't have the speed in 4, I don't think that will change tomorrow. 

Michael Matthews has a lot of making up to do to his team-mates who worked their butts off all day on stage 5 only for he to completely blow it in the sprint and end up 7th. He was very down and pissed off after the stage (but not as much as his team-mates I'd say!), will he be able to lift himself for this sprint tomorrow and be able to challenge? Not against these fast guys I think, they are a level above him at the moment it seems. 

Giacomo Nizzolo, Sonny Colbrelli, Matteo Trentin, Christophe Laporte and Andre Greipel will be battling it out for the rest of the top 10 places, Nizzolo will be hoping for a bit more luck in running and for his team to maybe not do all their best work too far from the finish.. If they can hold back and give him a proper leadout inside the last 2kms (instead of 6kms to go) he might come close too, but I think he's probabaly a good '4th to 9th place' bet in-running with Bet365.

I think DQS will boss it again though, but Ewan will run him close and I think I want to be on both of them. 

Recommendations

2pts win on Elia Viviani at 2/1 on Betfair

1pt e/w on Caleb Ewan at 11/2 with Bet365

Matchbets

Kristoff to beat Nizzolo and Trentin to beat Stuyven - 2pts at evens

Ewan to beat Sagan - 3pts at 5/6