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Published on Sunday, 07 July 2019 20:24

TDF 2019 Stage 3

Binche - Épernay

Monday 8th July, 214kms 

After spending two days in Belgium, the race finally enters France with a run from Binche, a town that is well-known in cycling circles thanks to the Binche-Chimay-Binche held there in October, to Epernay, famous for its Champagne.

It's a stage that is practically dead flat for 160kms, then gets quite lumpy for the last 55kms - definitely one to switch on for the last hour only.. There are six climbs to get over in the last 50kms or so, including three Cat 3s and a Cat 4, but none are overly difficult - they are short and punchy, with the longest being 1.8kms at 6.6%, and the hardest being 12.2% for 900m. It's like a mini Liege-Bastogne-Liege in the closing stages with climbs coming thick and fast and finishes with a tough 8% final 500m.

This finish is a tricky one - first there is the Cote de Mutigny with 16kms to go, and although it's less than a kilometre long it is very steep - over 12%. That should put a lot of guys down the back under pressure, especially some of the sprinters. If they get over the top 20 or 30" in arrears it's going to be a hard chase back because the peloton will be going full bore trying to make sure they don't get back in. 

Then with 6kms to go it kicks up again at 5.5% for a kilometre, those who were under pressure in the first climb will suffer again here, it might not be as steep, but with 4kms to go from the top, 2kms of which are downhill, it's going to be full gas. And then this finish. 500m at 8% - I found a similar finish in stage 2 of Tirreno Adriatico, the final 1200m sloped up at just under 8%, you can see it in the video below. Even Vincenzo Nibali struggled on it 

But look who cruised up to the front with 300m to go and easily won the sprint in the end? Alaphilippe of course. And with the race having arrived back on to French soil for the first time, he'll be very keen to take the bonus seconds out on the course, and the bonus seconds on the finish to try to get hold of that yellow jersey that he has said he wants in the first week. It's also quite similar to the finish of stage 3 of Valenciana this year, won by Greg Van Avermaet, with Trentin, Sanchez, Valverde and Teunissen the next home, with Colbrelli in 8th place.. 

Stage 2 Review

Jumbo Visma showed why they are now the no.1 TTT team in the world with a devastating performance to finally overhaul Ineos, who had led from the very start of the race. Mike Teunissen retains his jersey, which is a bit annoying for overs jerseys bets, but he was hanging on for grim death in the last 5kms. 

Ineos had set a time that looked beatable - especially when Groupama and Astana came pretty close to them, but one by one the other teams who looked like maybe beating them out on the course failed to finish the course as well as Ineos. Katusha set a great time, were 2nd fastest at both the 1st and 2nd intermediate, but only finished 4th in the end. Looking at the final times, Ineos were only 5th fastest at the first time check and 4th fastest at the second, so they clearly finished the race up the hill faster than most. 

Bahrain, DQS and EF all set good intermediate splits, and in the end DQS came the closest to Ineos, finishing less than a second slower than them. But that was until Jumbo hit the road and suddenly they were posting intermediate checks that were 14" and 16" faster than Ineos, and at the finish they powered home to win it by 20", a huge margin.

It is the best possible start for Jumbo, with two stage wins in two days and Mike Teunissen still in yellow. Great start too for SK, he holds a very nice 20" advantage over the Ineos boys already, 31" over Mas, 38" over Uran, 42" over Pinot and 51" over Adam Yates. Kruijswijk is in to 11/1 now from 22/1, has halved in price.

It was a poor time in the end by Mitchelton, they seemed to be going pretty well at the start but lost a lot of time by the finish. By the time they started they had shortened to 7/2 from 6/1 or so on Betfair, as it looked they and Jumbo were the only two who might beat Ineos' time. They will be disappointed with that, they seemed to be the fastest team to me in the morning recon when they flew past us.. Maybe they went too hard then.. 

The Route

They leave Binche and head straight south more or less for 146kms to Reims through the Champagne fields. 15kms later the road starts to get a lot lumpier. First up is an uncategorised climb that looks to be about 2kms at around 6%, and that's quickly followed by the first Cat 4 climb (1.1kms at 6.8%), a 9km descent as they start to head south-east and 4kms on the flat and on to the next climb. This one is a Cat 3 that's just 900m long, but averages 10.5% and that tops out with just 30kms to go.

Just 3kms later they start climbing again, this time another Cat 3 which averages 6.6% for 1.8kms, a 5km descent, 3kms on the flat and another Cat 3, this time it's the steepest climb of the day, the Cote de Mutigny, which is just 900m again, but averages a nasty 12.2%, it's sure to split the race to pieces.

Another 5km descent as they start to change direction and head north-west back towards Epernay, 4kms on the flat and on to the last climb of the day, the uncategorised Cote de Mont Bernon, which is 1km at 5.5%. The descent is pretty fast, on wide, straight but narrow rough roads, then it starts to climb again from 2kms out. Gently at first to the 500m to go mark, then it kicks up at 8% for the last 500m to the line, but there are parts that hit as high as 13.9% with 300m to go as it really starts to bite, then it's still around 8.3% for the last 200m.

The roads leading in to the finish are very tight in places, with some roundabouts and tight turns to negotiate inside the last 3kms. There is also a little section of cobbles that they go over approaching the last kiometre, but they are those small flat cobbles and shouldn't cause any problems. 

Contenders and Favourites

The break will go, there will be 4 or 5 in it, they'll build up a lead of 8 or 9 minutes, then Jumbo Visma, QuickStep, Bahrain and Bora will start working. The pace will really ratchet up with 50kms to go as they start to hit the hills, and they come one after each other pretty fast. You lose contact on one, you may not get back on again.

The Cote de Hautvilliers comes with 30kms to go and it's steep - 10% gradient, but only 900m long, but then after a short descent they're straight on to the Cote de Champillon, the 'longest' hill at 1.8kms, and it's not easy at 6.6% average, so expect the strong teams to really hammer it up here over these two hills to strip out the weaker sprinters.

Not long after they hit the Mutigny, and this could get really tasty - there are the 8" bonus at the top of it so we should see some GC men hit out in search for the bonuses, with 10" more at the finish it could be a day someone picks up a nice few bonus seconds

Julian Alaphilippe has to have a big chance tomorrow I think, he has said that he wanted to try to grab the yellow jersey in the first week. That may not be easy now with Teunissen 31" ahead, but I can see him being one of those interested in the bonus seconds on the Mutigny. Deceuninck will have lost Viviani most likely so it will be all in for Alaphilippe. Lampaert, Mas, Devenyns and Asgreen should be there to help him, but he doesn't really need it, he surfs wheels, he gets to the first five or so and then kicks for him with 200m or so to go. 9/2 is only ok though, pretty short if he gets blocked or find himself out of position

His biggest rival is probably going to be Peter Sagan, we all know what he can do on a finish like this and he proved it once again when he almost won that tough uphill sprint on stage 1. He also showed it with his win on that little kick-up at the end of stage 3 in the TDS when he got the jump on Viviani after nudging Degenkolb off the wheel of Stuyven. He'll be well looked after, and then will take over himself in the last kilometre. Bora didn't do a great time today, they might have been holding back a little with Sagan's stages and green in mind. 11/4 is pretty short though, but you know he'll probably be in the first 3 or very close. 

Max Schachmann would have a chance on a finish like this too, he's just 22/1 so he's clearly feared by Bet365 and fancied by some, probably all his German fans. But will he be just working for Sagan, or will he be let do his own thing? I'm not sure he will be let do his own thing, so I'm not backing him at that price. 

Can any of the sprinters hang in there? Michael Matthews has a good chance of staying in there, Sunweb did well today again with Matthews in their team, hes an ever-present in their decent TT results. He looked for a while at the end of stage 1 like he was going to take a good result, he was in a good place and seemingly cruising. But when push came to shove, he didn't have it and ended up down in 6th place. Based on that, even if he is in the top 10 again coming to the finish, I don't think he'll have the kick to win here. , 

Caleb Ewan could hang in there, he is good at these sorts of stages he was a bit unlucky with his positioning and got blocked at the worst possible moment in the sprint. Tim Wellens, Tiesj Benoot, Thomas de Gendt and Jens Keukeleire will drag him up that final hill to give him a chance in the sprint, but he needs to show a bit more of confidence and kick when the finish line is in site. But any guy who won at the top of the Hatta Dam and all those other uphill sprints surely is a big danger here.

Sonny Colbrelli should be there or thereabouts too, he is great at these kinds of finishes, but often fails to actually land the killer blow, and it might be just a little too tough for him. He did sprint well on Saturday though to finish in 5th place, Ivan Garcia and Tratnik were a big help to him at the finish and it could be similar here.

And what about the Jumbo boys? They clearly are flying, they have the yellow jersey, and a few guys who could challenge for the win. Wout Van Aert should like this run-in, but maybe not the actual finish itself, and also, he didn't have the legs in the finish on stage 1, which he admitted himself, he was beside Teunissen with about 200m to go, but as he realised he didn't have the legs he left Teunissen sprint instead.

And based on his finish to that stage, and also the finish to the 3rd stage of Valenciana I mentioned above, Mike Teunissen shouldn't be far off too.. He finished 5th that day and was right in the mix, and with the yellow jersey on his shoulders, and possibly the team all in for him, he could come close again. 

That stage in Valenciana was won by Greg Van Avermaet though, and he should be there or thereabouts too on this finish, it's very much like a Flanders Classic in the closing 30kms. Will he have the punch though to beat the likes of Alaphilippe? Maybe, but we've not seen a great deal from him this season to suggest he can. 

Astana have lots of guys who could enjoy this stage, they like an Ardennes type race and Luis Leon Sanchez, Gorka Izagirre, Pelle Bilbao and Omar Fraile are likely candidates for a late attack, Luis Leon was 3rd in Valenciana and also looked very sharp in the Spanish nationals. But what about Fuglsang? He should like this, a man who finished 2nd in Strade Bianche and Fleche Wallone, but how's his body? He took a hell of a fall when he came down, but must be relatively ok seeing as they did such a good TT today. It may be a case of just getting him home and protecting him for now though. If I was to pick one to be maybe let off the leash, I'd go for Luis Leon at 200/1, looks massive. 

And of course the GC men will be getting involved too on a tough finish like this, they will want to be near the front to avoid any time splits, because there will be some, Richie Porte is guaranteed to be caught out by one. Also, some might actually fancy their chances, Egan Bernal hasn't a bad kick on him up a finish like this, Adam Yates will fancy this one also and Dan Martin should be in the mix as well, this is Dan's sort of finish. But they'll have had to get rid of all the sprinters, Alaphilippe and Sagan I think to win. 

And what about old ever-green Alejandro Valverde? The King of the 'Murs' Valverde of 2-3 years ago would be taking all my money for tomorrow, he should still be heavily involved and judging by how light he is and how strong he looked in winning the nationals, then he looks a decent e/w bet to me at 16/1. 

Hard to look past Alaphillippe though I think, this looks perfect for him and I'm definitely keeping him onside, with a little nibble on LL Sanchez and Valverde too at those prices.  

Recommendations:

2pts win on Alaphilippe at 4/1

0.5pts e/w on Alejandro Valverde at 16/1

0.2pts e/w on LL Sanchez at 200/1

Matchbets:

Colbrelli to beat Bettiol and Sagan to beat Matthews - 2pts on the double at 11/10 with Bet365

Greg Van Avermaet to beat Wout Van Aert - 2pts at 11/10

Yates to beat Nibali and Kruijswijk to beat Porte - 3pts at 11/10