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Published on Saturday, 06 July 2019 17:44

TDF 2019 Stage 2

Palais Royale - Atomnium

Sunday July 7th, 27.6km TTT

The second stage throws up a challenge to the GC men straight away in the form of a TTT around the streets of Brussels. It may only be 27kms long, but that could see considerable gaps between the GC challengers by the end of the day.

It's a bit strange having the TTT on the second day of a Tour, normally you'd get it as the opening stage, or somewhere in the middle, but having said that, it was on the 3rd stage last year when BMC beat Sky by 4"!

Having it on the second stage means we will probably see a second race leader in two days, and possibly 3 or even 4 by the time the 6th stage on the Planche des Belles Filles has finished. The organisers seem to like 27 as the number of kilometres for a TT, with this one being 27.6 and the individual TT on stage 13 being 27.2kms. 

There have been only two Team Time Trials this season in World Tour races in total, one in the UAE Tour at the start of March, won by Jumbo Visma and one in Tirreno-Adriatico mid March won by Mitchelton Scott. There was a TTT in the Colombia Tour in February, won by EF Education First and one in Coppi e Bartali in March won also by Mitchelton Scott, stage 1b over just 13kms. 

It looks like race organisers are falling out of love with TTTs, it's probably a combination of teams hating them and fans finding them boring. But they face one here, and the point I'm making is that there isn't a great deal of form to go on this year, with only two races to look at, one of which was on sand roads in the heat of the UAE Tour.. 

Stage 1 Review

Wow - what a shock that was today.. Mike Teunissen was 275/1 to take that stage today, an incredible win for a background rider who doesn't get many days in the spotlight. But when Groenewegen went down with 1.5kms to go, the plan changed for Jumbo.. But I bet plan B for them was Van Aert, but as he got lost in the melee in the last 500m, it was Teunissen who emerged from the pack and went toe-to-toe with Sagan for the win. Spare a thought for those who were on Van Aert at 45/1 when ITV's commentary team called him as the winner for several minutes until they realised their error. 

Sagan was very, very close. Good start for him in the Points competition though, he took 20 out on the road and 30 at the finish. It looked for a while like Michael Matthews was in a great position to win, but he faded to 6th in the end. Caleb Ewan started his sprint way too far back, maybe Lotto should have saved their men for the last kilometre instead of taking it up with 4kms to go. He came there strongly as the road kicked up, but just as he was really starting to wind it up he ran in to a dead end and had to stop his sprint. 3rd in the end, if we'd taken e/w at 4/1 we'd have got our stake back. 

Elia Viviani was disappointing, he never really got in a blow in the sprint, but I sort of expected that - but at least he beat Groenewegen who ended up on the ground. And he wasnt' the only one who ended up on the ground, Jakob Fuglsang had a big scare, crashing and getting a bit cut up. He has a bruise on his knee, stitches on his face and scuffs to his knee, elbow and shoulders. He managed to finish, but is going to be sore tomorrow. Geraint Thomas also hit the barriers in the Groenewegen crash but he says that he's fine, was slow by the time he hit the barriers. 

Matthews, Kristoff, Ewan, Viviani, Colbrelli and Trentin all finished in the top 10, special mention though for Giacomo Nizzolo who finishes 4th, his best result in a while. Not a great start but at least we didn't go too big, Viviani beating Groenwegen pulled a bit back. Adam Yates has shortened up to 9/1 second favourite as a result though, Fuglsang has been pushed out to 4th favourite.  

The Route

They start near the Royal Palace in the south side of the city, but instead of heading north towards the Atomnium straight away, they go off on a d-shaped loop to the south, taking in the first hill after just 1.4kms (600m at 4%). They also go over another little hill at the bottom of the course after 9.8kms (800m at 4%) before turning back north and crossing over the start of the course after 17.7kms. 

From there they head mostly north-west, skirting around the Laeken Parks, cutting back in through a sharp left and sharp right to head towards the finish. There is one last hill with just 3.3kms to go (800m at 3.5%) and then it's almost totally flat to finish, although the road does drag gently upwards. The roads around Brussels are flat, wide and fast and it should be perfect for the big power-houses to really put the hammer down. 

Contenders and Favourites

So which teams have a hope and which don't? Which GC men will be looking forward to this, and which will be dreading it and will be throwing shade at their team-mates at the dinner table in the evening? The bookies have basically almost made it a coin toss between Ineos and JV, with Ineos at 11/8 and JV at 6/4. 

Jumbo Visma were the winners of one of the only two World Tour TTTs held this year, but they didn't send a team to Colombia or Coppi e Bartali. That win in the UAE TT saw only two of their riders for the Tour take part though, Laurens de Plus and Tony Martin, it was a team built around Primoz Roglic and had Jos Van Emden in it too. 

Those two guys are big engines to be missing here, but they have Kruijswijk, Van Aert, Teunissen, Groenewegen, Jansen and Bennett instead, and that's a pretty formidable squad, especially the core of Martin, De Plus, SK and Van Aert. Maybe not as good as a team with Roglic and JVE, but good nonetheless. SK is time trialling very well this year, Wout Van Aert has just become Dutch TT champion, not long after that sensational TT in the Dauphiné when he beat Dumoulin by 47" and Tony Martin has just become German TT champ for the 8th time in a row and the 9th time in 10 years. 

Laurens de Plus was in both the teams that did TTTs this year, winning in the UAE Tour and 2nd in Tirreno, and he showed how good he is against the clock with 8th place in the Giro opening ITT. Groenewegen, Jansen and Teunissen also were in the team that won the Hammer Stavanger series in Norway, lots of practice for them on TT bikes there. Their bikes are very fast, they seem a very confident and cohesive unit and will be doing all they can to give SK a good start in this race. But after today, how is Groenewegen? They will be buzzing after Teunissen's win today, they will be going all out to keep him in yellow. 

Ineos of course have a very powerful squad here, but how good are they going to be in a TTT? Geraint Thomas and Egan Bernal will be looking to put time in to their rivals, and we know that Thomas is a top class TT'er, former British TT champ and an ever-present in TTT squads, so is vastly experienced. He crashed today, but says he's ok. Bernal is not as much, and not as good a TT'er, but he's not Colombian TT champion for nothing.

Add in Jonathan Castroviejo (new Spanish TT champion), Michal Kwiatkowski (former Polish TT Champ), Gianni Moscon (former Italian TT champ), Dylan Van Baarle (former Dutch TT champ), Luke Rowe and Woet Poels and it's a pretty strong squad, only Rowe and Poels have not been a national TT champ at some point in their careers. 

You would think that Rowe and Moscon will do the most work in the opening 5kms and let it to Castro, Thomas, Bernal, Kwiat, Poels and DVB to try to bring it home with a strong negative split. The team that finished 4th in the TTT in the UAE Tour only had Kwiat and Moscon from this squad, the team that finished 5th in the Tirreno TTT had Moscon, Poels, Thomas and Castro, but they were 47" behind Mitchelton.

The team that finished 2nd in the Tour TTT last year, just 4" behind BMC had Kwiat, Thomas, Moscon, Bernal, Castro, Poels and Rowe, basically the same team bar Froome instead of Van Baarle. How much of a difference will that substitution make? Maybe 5 seconds? I don't think a lot anyway, so if they can reproduce that sort of performance then they will be one of the fastest teams here again. Are Moscon and Thomas the same riders as last year though?

Mitchelton Scott will be fancying their chances in this, they have done well in TTTs this year, winning in Tirreno and Coppi e Bartali. They didn't go so well in UAE, but that team looked nothing like what is here. They more or less have their A-team here for TTTs, with the two Yates brothers backed up by Durbridge, Hepburn, Impey, Juul-Jensen, Trentin and Haig. Adam, Durbridge, Hepburn and Juul-Jensen were in the Tirreno-winning team, and add in Trentin, Impey and Simon and they have a very strong core. 

A team with Yates, Hepburn, Impey and Durbridge finished 4th in the 35km TT last year in the Tour, just 9" behind BMC, but this looks a stronger team than that in my opinion. Adam and Simon have really stepped up their TT'ing ability this year and Juul-Jensen and Trentin two very strong powerhouses who will give everything in the opening 10kms or so. Durbridge is National TT champion, Impey is National TT champion, Trentin finished 10th in the recent TT in the TDS.. They are going to be a major player in this I think and at 12/1 I think they will come very close - they could be a decent e/w bet, I think they are way too big. 

Sunweb will greatly miss Tom Dumoulin from their lineup here, they had turned in to quite a formidable TTT squad in the last two years, winning the Worlds in 2017 and finishing 2nd in 2018 to QuickStep. Michael Matthews was in both teams, he seems to excel in TTTs, he has lots of power. Chad Haga, Nico Roche, Lennard Kamna, Soren Kragh, Cees Bol, Nik Arndt and Wilco Kelderman are all solid, strong riders, but not exactly top of the best time triallists lists. 

They did finish 2nd in the 16km TTT at the UAE Tour, 7" behind Jumbo, but that team had Dumoulin, Robert Power and Max Walscheid, of the team that are here there was Haga, Kelderman, Arndt and Bol. They also finished 3rd in the TTT in Tirreno, but again Dumoulin was taking huge pulls for long periods, but Roche, Arndt, Kragh and Haga were there with him. They were 5th in the TDF TTT last year, with TomDum, but only Matthews, Kragh, Haga and Arndt were there.

They're a hard one to figure out, how much of a loss wil Dumoulin be? Huge is the answer, possibly 0.3-0.5kmph average of a difference, and that could rule them out of the running for the podium, they're too short for me at 5/1.

Decueninck QuickStep are a team full of stars, but can they pull it together in a TTT? World Champions last year, but that team was a very different one to the team they have here, with only Lampaert and Asgreen here, the big engines are not. 

But Alaphilippe and Lampaert are two very good TTers, Lampaert recently won the final TT in the TDS and finished 2nd behind WVA in the Belgian TT champs. He was also in the Hammer Series TTs team, along with Morkov, DQS won three of the six of them, but they were the only two involved. 

They finished 4th in the TTT at Tirreno, a team that had Lamps, Alap, Viv, Morkov, Richeze and Asgreen, only Devenyns and Mas were missing. They were 37" behind M-S though over just 21kms, that's quite a chasm to have to close. They were 15" off the podium too, but at least they finished 10" ahead of the Ineos team that had four of their TDF team. They were a full 1.5kmph slower than M-S, can Mas and Devenyns lift them that much? I'm not so sure. 

They did finish 2nd in the TTT in Colombia, but only Alaphilippe and Richeze were there, and finished 7th in UAE, 26" behind Jumbo Visma over 16kms. Alaphilippe wants to take yellow at some point in the first week, Viviani could take yellow if they pull off a stunner and win, Mas won't want to lose too much time, they're racing in Belgium. Lots of motivation, but ultimately I think they will miss out, 4th or 5th for me. 

Astana will have to reasess after what happened to Jakob Fuglsang today, he will probably be pretty stiff and sore tomorrow, that is, even if he starts. He seemed ok after the medical van tonight, but says he has a contusion on his knee, that's going to hurt tomorrow. They will probably have to nurse him around, but they mightn't do too bad -  Lutsenko, Cort Neilsen, Fraile, Bilbao and Izagirre are all very strong, but wouldn't be in the same league as the three teams above when it comes to TTTs. They finished way down in 8th in the TTT last year, 51" behind BMC, but only Fuglsang, Cort and Fraile were in that team. 

Lutsenko, Sanchez and Gorka are a very strong core. Sanchez has been Spanish TT champion three times and has won 7 TTs in his career, and although it's been 4 years since his last win he finished an impressive 4th in the long 39km TT in the Giro two years ago. Lutsenko is the Kazakh TT champ for the second time, Gorka has finished 2nd twice and 3rd once in the Spanish Nationals and even Hugo Houle has been Canadian TT champion. 

They've not had a great record in TTTs over the years though, they were only 13th in the TTT in Tirreno this year, 1'13" down on M-S, a team that had Fuglsang, Lutsenko and Fraile, 16th in the opening TTT of the Vuelta in 2017, even Aqua Blue and FDJ beat them. They just don't seem to be able to pull it together in a TTT, and I fear Fuglsang could lose a minute or so to some of his rivals here. 50/1 sounds about right.. 

Bahrian Merdia might not be at the forefront of most thinking about this TTT, but any team that has Rohan Dennis, Jan Tratnik, Matej Mohoric, Vincenzo Nibali, Dylan Teuns and Damiano Caruso has to be respected. Rohan Dennis we all know about, Jan Tratnik was Slovenian TT champion last year, and won TTs at Coppi e Bartali and the CCC Tour, as well as winning the short prologue in Romandie this year. Caruso has won two TDF and two Tirreno TTTs while at BMC, he was an integral part to their all-conquering TTT teams and recently finished 4th in the final TT in the Giro. 

Bahrain finished 3rd in the TTT in the UAE Tour, just 9" behind Jumbo, and that team had Nibali, Tratnik, Caruso and Dennis, that was a superb ride from them, they beat all bar Sunweb and Jumbo comfortably. Dylan Teuns is a very solid top-20 finisher in almost every TT he does and will add BMC experience to the squad too. Colbrelli and Garcia will be the weak links, but the rest of the team looks pretty solid and they could be pushing for a podium spot. 25/1 looks very big. 

EF Education First and Bora Hansgrohe will go well too, EF surprised by winning the TTT in Colombia at the start of the season, but Uran was the only one of that team here, and I don't think the rest of this team look particularly hot. Bora have some very strong guys, but this isn't a priority for them and they aren't very good at TTTs. The 10th in the UAE Tour TTT is probably their level, they will hope to not do as badly as their 20th out of 23 in the Tirreno TT. 

Katusha could surprise a few, they have a very strong team with Dowsett, Politt, Haller, Wurtz and Debuscherre, but they will be held back by Zakarin and they'll probably have to wait for him. Otherwise, they could give it a good go. CCC could do alright too, they have some of the old BMC boys and a strong unit with GVA, Rosskopf, Bevin, Geschke, Pauwels, De Marchi, Wisniowski and Schar. They were only 6th in the UAE TTT and 11th in Tirreno though, they'll have to step it up from there if they want to podium. 

Movistar won't be far off the pace either, with Amador and Oliveira in their team, but they have too many lightweight climbers and hangers-on, I think they will be just looking to limit their time losses. I think they will be around 8th-10th, so 66/1 sounds right too.

And that's it really, can't see Lotto-Soudal, FDJ, Trek, UAE or any of the others troubling the podium. This is probably one of the most time-consuming previews I think I've ever done, it's taken ages to try to get all the info and form lines, yet I am still finding it hard to pick a winner. I think Jumbo Visma might just have the beating of Ineos, but I'm not sure I want to back them, instead I am going to back Mitchelton-Scott and Bahrain e/w.

At the moment, Betway are the only bookies offering prices and they are only going e/w on the first two, but I think we could see one of the top two disappoint so the other place is up for grabs. I actually think MS are good enough to win this, so happy to go with them as the main pick, I can't believe they are 12/1 now, they were 4/1 yesterday when they opened their market first.. Bahrain could surprise as I said above, 25/1 looks alright to me. 

Recommendations:

1.5pts e/w on Mitchelton Scott at 4/1

0.5pts e/w on Bahrain Merida at 25/1

Matchbets:

To come later tonight or tomorrow morning.