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Published on Saturday, 20 July 2019 20:22

TDF 2019 Stage 15

Limoux - Foix Prat d'Albis

Sunday 21st July, 185kms 

Straight after a finish on the mighty Tourmalet, they face another really tough day in the saddle with three Cat 1s and a Cat 2 climb to contend with, including the summit finish to Prat d'Albis. 

This looks like a day for the breakaway - a lumpy start, a Cat 2 climb after 60kms and three Cat 1s inside the last 75kms, it will be a day that many will have marked down as one they want to target. Being prime time Sunday afternoon viewing and a day ahead of the rest day, plenty of guys will give it everything as they know there's a good chance of the break making it all the way. 

Stage 14 Review

The stage started quite bizarrely, with protests in a village from locals blocking the road and forcing the organisers to delay the start until the 6.5km mark, making the stage just 111kms. When the race did start there was a bit of a lull until eventually Vincenzo Nibali of all people took off, with Peter Sagan in tow. They were quickly joined by 15 others which included our man Zakarin, three from Direct Energie,Guillaume Martin, Elie Gesbert (the one day we weren't on him!), Mohoric for Nibali, Wellens, Luis Leon, Taaramae and Alex Vuillermoz (who seems to be over his crash).. 

They were not given much rope though as Groupama and DQS worked hard at the front and as they started on the Soulor with 70kms to go the lead was just 2'50". The break broke up about half way up the Soulor as Zakarin and Nibali pressed on, while behind Movistar came to the front and blew the peloton to pieces. Romain Bardet was a surprising victim early on, as was Adam Yates, it was disastrous day for both of them. 

Movistar had numbers and really kicked on again on the Tourmalet, with only Gesbert and Sicard with a minutes advantage starting the Tourmalet, with Gesbert soon dropping sicard. Adam Yates had got back on on the flat thanks to Jack Haig, but was dropped again with 15kms to go. Dan Martin was the next big favourite to get into trouble, starting to lose the wheel with 13kms to go and the biggest shock of all was Nairo Quintana starting to lose the wheel very early on in the climb when Movistar were still pushing at the front.

They tried to pace him back up with Soler, but there was no coming back and his race was over. But up front, the Jumbo boys started to take control, and they had the black and yellow army there - Bennett and Laurens de Plus were superb, and the pressure they put on eventually cracked Thomas - a big surprise really, but it was coming as far as I was concerned, he didn't look good all the way up the climb and was slipping back every time there was an accleration.

So hitting the last kilometre, there were only six riders left, one of them incredibly was Julian Alaphilippe.. and it looked for a while like he might even take the stage win. But our boy Pinot kicked away with 200m to go and no one could go with him. Some were saying after that Alap let him win as part of the 'do me a favour later' games we get in these races, but he looked on the limit to me. So it was a great winner for us, that's our 4th winner, good to keep chipping away with 6.75pts profit, annoyingly Kreuziger pulled off a big ride to beat Guillaume by 2 places and Buchmann beat Uran by 3 places (comfortably though).  

There was a superb ride by Kruijswijk too though to take 3rd place and as Thomas lost 30" to him he has moved back to within 12" of him for 2nd place, and if Alaphilippe does eventually crack, our boy could take the lead.. He is looking very strong and hold a handy 58" advantage over Pinot who is also looking really good. A special mention though for Emanu Buchmann who finished 4th today, he looked really strong and was the one who put Thomas out the back when he accelerated a few times. 

Rigo Uran and Jakob Fuglsang lost contact near the top but finished within 53", there was also a superb ride by Warren Barguil who attacked at the bottom of the Tourmalet, got caught, but instead of going south and losing loads of time he stayed on strongly to finish 9th on the stage. I think he can take a stage before this race is over, he now is over 7 mins down and should be given some freedom. 

Alaphilippe then.. man, oh man - he's in to odds on in places and the whole world (well, France anyway) is going mental for 'Begbie'.. He has been incredible, I can't believe he did that ride a day after that TT.. He shouldn't be up there in second place on a stage like that, everyone expected him to lose the jersey today. But he keeps going, he keeps defying the odds and is riding on a crest of a wave at the moment. Today's climb suited him a little though, it was ridden pretty steady, we had no blistering attacks really and he was able to just sit in the wheels and hang in there. It might be a different matter entirely in the Alps, I'm not backing him at that price, in fact I've laid 3pts of him tonight at 11/10 on Betfair. 

Movistar look home and hosed in the team competition, but boy did they make a mess of today's stage.. not really sure what that was all about, ripping it up like that for mile after mile, only for Quintana to go out the back door. Valverde said afterwards that Quintana didn't tell them anything about how he was feeling, sounds like things are so rosy in the Movistar camp either. Bernal is back in the white jersey to keep the Green/White double alive too. 

The KOM is still wide open, Nibali is gone favourite after his little excursion today over the Soulor, but Pinot has also been slashed after taking 40pts today on the Tourmalet.. If he keeps riding like that he will take a lot more in the next week with those double-point finishes over 2,000m, so I've had a little go on him at 6/1 each-way, he could easily pick up 80 or 120pts next week. 2pts e/w. 

The Route

A 185km trip west and south in to the Pyrenées with a gentle opening 55kms or so, then the Cat 2 Col de Montsegur (6.8kms at 6%) after 60kms, then the next 50kms or so are pretty flat too as they continue west. But as they turn south and start heading in to the lower slopes of the Pyrenées the road starts to tilt upwards.  

They face three Cat 1 climbs in the closing 75kms, first up is the Port del Lers, which is officially given as 11.4kms at 7%, a steep, narrow and nasty little climb. A very tricky and dangerous 16km descent takes them straight to the foot of the next climb, the Mur de Peguere (9.3kms at 7.9%) which gets really steep in the last 3.3kms, hitting an average of 13% and as high as 16-18% in parts.

This one might also have a little bit more significance though in that it is one of those bonus points, with 8" up for grabs, maybe the peloton will have reeled in the break in time for some GC men to have a crack at it, there are only 38kms to go from the top after all. 

A longer 25km descent takes them to the foot of the final climb to Foix Prat d'Albis. This one averages 'just' 6.9% for 11.8kms, but the opening 6kms are a bit steeper, averaging 7.5%, hitting 10-11% for two kilometres. It eases back to just 3% average for the last 800m, with the final 200m a flat run to the line.    

Contenders and Favourites

So we had a pretty spectacular day today, with a lot of riders really suffering, despite the stage being only 111kms long, a lot of guys were in the red already on the Soulor, some 60kms from the finish and a lot of GC men cracked pretty early on the Tourmalet. Today they climbed 3,500m, tomorrow they climb 4,700m, but there are no super-high climbs here, the highest being around 1500m. 

The final climb isn't the hardest of the day, but if the peloton has been shredded again on the previous two climbs then it might be that we only have 20 or so left starting the final hill. It is 10% steep between the 3rd and 6th kilometre which should be where the stronger guys might start putting on the pressure, but it stays pretty steady all the way to the last 800m where it eases off and actually has a pretty flat finish. 

Betway priced it up early again and they made Bernal the 4/1 favourite, and I think he was something like 7/1 when they opened first. But then Bet365 opened up with him at 16/1 so Betway quickly copied them and pushed him out to 16/1 too. That's an interesting one to think about, I guess they were thinking that Ineos will go all in on Bernal now and he will be let off the leash to try to save the Tour for them. He might have to go early to try to take back as much time as he can, maybe those steep sections 6kms or so out, but it's unlikely he'll be given much rope, there are too many strong guys there who are not going to want to let Ineos back in to this race. 

When Bet365 eventually came out with their prices they had made Simon Yates the 7/1 favourite, and that suprised me a bit I must say. Ok, he looked to have great legs when he won stage 12, he always looked pretty much in control and even had the kick in the end to win that not many people expected (he was the outsider of 3 in the betting).

What is interesting though is that he backed off today once Adam was out of the running - they were beside each other starting the last 10kms or so, but Adam finished almost 10 minutes ahead of Simon, Simon must have just spun it gently up the Tourmalet to save his legs for something.. And Matty White has been saying that they saved Simon for the final week to support Adam, and that his legs are now really good, would be a shame to waste them sitting there nursing Adam home.. So I am beginning to see the logic in their pricing him up so short.. they expect him to get in the break and to be given some leeway, and he is likely to have a team-mate or two with him like Trentin to help build the break's advantage. 

Second favourite is Thibaut Pinot and you'd have to think, based on how he finished it off today that he'd have a big chance of winning two in a row. He looked calm and confident all day, the team looked confident, pulling from a long way out and David Gaudu was immense for him in the last 6kms or so, killing off a lot of rivals. With legs so good, I think he needs to keep the pressure up tomorrow and try to make back as much time as he can before they start heading to the Alps. 

It might even be that we see the Groupama train taking it up about 60kms from home in an attempt to reel in the break in time for Pinot to attack and try to take the bonus seconds on the Pegure.. But there's also the danger that he'll just tee it up for Alaphilippe, they'll have to try to get rid of him. I think Pinot will go really hard on the final climb again, Gaudu can push it in the opening kilometres of the final climb and then release Pinot to attack with 6kms or so to go.. But seeing as he waited until the last 300m today to attack, is it that he isn't willing to go in to the red early for fear of blowing up? But to take back the time he needs, he'll have to start attacking early at some point!

Vincenzo Nibali is 12/1, and you'd think that as he looked keen today, but never really was given the chance to build a sizeable lead he'll try again pretty soon? He didn't probably use that much energy at all really, he had to work hard for a while, but he had a lot of help in the break and he backed off pretty quickly when they knew the break was doomed. He then coasted home at his leisure. Do we think he can go again so soon and take it all the way to the finish? The Jury's out with me on that.. 

Julian Alaphilippe is also 12/1, and it really wouldn't surprise me to see him not only hold on to yellow tomorrow again, but to attack and take the bloody stage as well! When will it end for Alaphilippe? When will we see him crack? Who knows, but today, it was Mas and all his team-mates cracking, and Quintana, Martin, Bardet, Thomas etc. and not Alapolak. If he can hang in there on the final climb, he could well win that sprint. 

Mikel Landa is 14/1, but although he was the last man standing for Movistar, after all the work they did, he never did anything - he didn't attack, he just followed wheels, and ended up a mediocre 6th, very disappointing for his backers at such a short price. Maybe tomorrow he can go early - Movistar should put Amador or Soler in the break and then let Landa attack on the steep slopes of the Peguere and bridge to his team-mate on the descent and push on to the last climb.

If he has a minute or so on the bottom he's the kind of guy who could hold on. He's 11th, just outside the top 10, so will be under pressure from the team and himself now probably to try to get top 10 at the very least. If he can take a minute or so on this stage and a minute or two in stages next week he could even start to move close to a top 6 place. But is he capable of it? Based on today's performance, he looks happy to just follow wheels at the moment. 

Steven Kruijswijk, George Bennett, Manu Buchmann, Rigo Uran and Jakob Fuglsang are all probably going to be around the top 10, solid, but unlikely to win a stage finish like this, although Buchmann and Kruijswijk did look strong today and will be looking for time. Geraint Thomas is 20/1, and I can't be having him at all, generally a rider who suffers that much on a stage tends to struggle the next day too, he could lose even more time and slide out of contention altogether. 

Warren Barguil looked really good to me today, I thought he was looking very good about 3 minutes before he attacked away with 9.5kms to go, then seemed to get his chain jammed or something when about 100m off the front and it killed his momentum a bit. But he kept going and it took the peloton in full flight 4kms to catch him.. but he stayed on to take an impressive 9th instead of going out the back door. If he was to attack again on this final climb he might be let have a little bit of space again, they didn't chase him down immediately today. 

But that is if you were to think it is going to be a GC day.. and I think it will actually be pretty close, with the break actually favouring it for me. Ineos clearly do not have control of the race any more, Movistar are unlikely to do what they did today and waste loads of energy for nothing, and Groupama and Jumbo might save their legs until the final climb and try and do what they did today and put their rivals under immense pressure to try to crack them. So, we might not get a strong, concerted chase. And we might get a big group of guys go up the road with riders from a number of different teams. And they could get 5 or 6 minutes as the GC teams block the narrow roads early in the stage. And they might just make it. 

So break candidates - I thought Thomas de Gendt would fancy this one today, but he was dropped very early on today and looked to be totally drained after that effort in the TT on Friday.. So I'm leaving him for now.. he might recover and go again in a few days. 

Romain Bardet died a death today, unlikely we'll see him on the attack, and Vincenzo Nibali and Ilnur Zakarin put a big effort in today so I don't think they'll be going either. Although they did knock it back and got retaken by the peloton with 22kms to go, so took it easy on the Tourmalet - it wasn't as hard a day as it could have been.  Nibali is the kind of guy that now that he has the bit between his teeth and tested out the legs, could go for several stages of hard effort. But he's a bit short to me, he still isn't showing himself to be in brilliant form. 

Jesus Herrada could be one for this stage though, he still seems to have ok legs, finishing 34th today, but he will not be able to compete with the GC men, the only joy he will get from this race should be from the break. It's the last stage near the Spanish border, there should be lots of Spanish fans on the road again and they could roar him on to victory. 

Maybe it's time for Astana to let some men go up the road again? Fuglsang is not going to to win the GC, time they accepted that. He's now 5'22" down, best he can hope for probably is a top 10, and that looks pretty comfortable to be honest. They sent Luis Leon up the road today, Billbao stayed with Fuglsang as long as he could, so maybe they should send the likes of Omar Fraile or Gorka Izagirre in the break this time? Gorka rode pretty well today, finishing just 27th, Fraile was with the GC group for as long as he could but dropped away on the Tourmalet. I'm going to give Gorka another go at a decent price of 80/1. 

Marc Soler could be sent up the road by Movistar in the same way that they sent Verona today, but he worked very hard today for the team, dropping back to tow Quintana after pulling at the front for miles before that. Giulio Ciccone, Fabio Aru, Dan Martin are all guys who need to try to do something, but not sure they will be able to. 

Simon Geschke looked keen today, but didn't make the break, he said after the stage though that "My legs were actually really good... It would be nice to go in the breakaway tomorrow & do what I came here to do.” - So at 300/1, he's going to be one of my men tomorrow 

It's another impossible one to call tomorrow - I felt pretty strong about Pinot today and how the stage would be won, but am really struggling to call tomorrow's stage with any conviction. Not only from the winner point of view, but even how it will pan out and whether the break or the GC men will take it. I'm leaning more towards the break though as I said and will throw a few darts at that at big prices and see how we get on. If it comes to a GC battle, get on Pinot again at 4/1 or bigger in play. But if Simon Yates gets in the break, I think we should back him too!

Recommendations:

0.25pts e/w on Simon Geschke at 300/1 with Bet365

0.25pts win on Gorka Izagirre at 80/1 with Betway 

0.5pts e/w on Jesus Herrada at 33/1 with Betway

1pt win on Warren Barguil at 25/1 with Bet365

Matchbets:

Bennett to beat Valverde - 3pts at 5/6

Bernal to beat Landa and Dan Martin to beat Yates - 2pts at 6/5 with 365