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Published on Monday, 15 July 2019 19:10

TDF 2019 Stage 11

Albi - Toulouse

Wed 17th July, 167kms 

Another transition stage straight after the rest day, taking them south towards the Pyrenées. This should be one for the sprinters on what is a short and pretty flat stage. but as we saw on 10, anything could happen!

Lilian Calmejane might fancy a day in the break today, given that he hails from Albi, but he's been very disappointing so far in the race, he just doesn't have good legs. He might just get the opportunity to ride out front leaving Albi, and then decide the smart thing would be to save his legs for the stages to come to see if they start to improve. 

This is another 'transition' stage, which normally shouldn't cause too many problems, but there will be a lot of nervous riders in the peloton after what happened today. Dan Martin repeatedly referred to this stage as being another nervous and difficult one to overcome before he can relax and hit the mountains when he was interviewed by Eurosport after the stage. 

Stage 10 Review

Wow - so much for a 'transition' stage that should end in a bunch sprint! Everything seemed calm and under control, with a small break that posed no threats whatsoever being kept on a tight leash. But then all hell broke loose and it was hard to even pinpoint what really happened. Ineos with Luke Rowe kicked things off trying to split it up with 63kms to go, causing a small split, sending out a warning signal, but teams didn't pay close enough attention..

Then one minute EF were pushing hard at the front with about 40kms to go, hammered it at the front for about 5kms starting to break it up, catching out Pinot and Groenewegen, then suddenly Alaphilippe and Viviani and DQS hit the front with 35kms to go, then Ineos took over with Luke Rowe again and suddenly Pinot, Groenewegen, Uran, Porte and Fuglsang were caught out as EF went straight out the back door en masse..

Up front Ineos and DQS put the hammer down and although Pinot and Porte worked really hard to bring the gap down to just 12" they ran out of support men and the elastic snapped. And it snapped bad - by the finish Fuglsang, Pinot, Porte and Uran had lost 1'40", a disastrous result from an innocuous looking stage. What a fuck-up by Pinot, he had been backed heavily in the last few days, down to 6/1 from 12s or so on Betfair, as he was looking like the most dangerous opponent to the Ineos boys.

Also, Porte - he gets through his jinxed stage 9, only to go and blow it on stage 10 and slide all the way down to 20th again. He just manages to fuck it up every single year, it's incredible. If he had a brain, he could have won a lot more than he has to now, he's asleep far too often on the bike. 

Up front Sunweb took over for the last kilometer, as Matthews had four men in front of him leading him in to the bridge and up the small drag that people were getting over-concerned about.. they barely felt it in the end. But once again, when Sunweb were asked the final question, they had no answer. Matthews last leadout man was too slow, he had not enough speed when he released him and by the time he started his sprint he was already in 7th place, after being in 2nd wheel. 

Ewan was unlucky again too, he picked the wrong wheel to follow and by the time he realised it he too was starting his sprint on the back foot. He did manage to get up to nab 3rd though, getting something back for those of you who took the short odds e/w, he really has been remarkably consistent in his results so far this race. For about all of the last 10kms, Peter Sagan had been the favourite to take the stage, but once again he was found wanting in a sprint and thankfully was beaten once again by Ewan in a match bet, the third time for us. 

Viviani came from a long way back, he was trusting Richeze to deliver him but he got caught too far back for once, but he came within 3 inches of winning it.. But Jumbo took the win again, for the 3rd sprint in this race, and it wasn't with the 7/4 favourite for the stage Groenewegen, but the sensational Wout Van Aert. It was an incredible sprint by the young man to take it, his expert bike throw on the line shocked Viviani. 

Unlucky again today, I'm getting a bit fed up with writing that, but at least we landed a nice little profit on the day with all matchbets winning. It was a really good day for Thomas and Bernal, but also our men Kruijswijk and Yates, they avoided the carnage and are poised to strike - SK is only 15" behind Thomas. It was also a good day for Quintana, Dan Martin, Buchmann and Mas, the top 10 is starting to take shape, but we haven't hit a mountain proper yet and there's a long way to go until this race is over. 

There is an awful lot of this race that has to be raced at altitude coming in the next two weeks, and with so many contenders after losing so much time today, we could see lots of attacking, exciting racing. Mikel Landa also lost time today, a bump from Barguil, who had been bumped by Alaphilippe, sent Landa crashing in to some spectators and he lost over two minutes and sits over four minutes down on the GC now. Nibali lost a load of time again and is poised to go ballistic in the mountains. 

Yellow is still most definitely up for grabs, I wouldn't be taking the 4/7 on Thomas that's for sure - with so much altitude racing still to come, Quintana and Bernal will be looking forward to some good days. Pinot, Bardet, Fuglsang (and all of Astana maybe), Porte, Uran all have to go on the offensive now and it could be a crazy, fantastic next two weeks. 

Green looks done and dusted, but Matthews is now in to evens joint fav with Viviani to finish 2nd to Sagan, hopefully some of you took the 11/4 a few days ago. Viviani could well go home after the next sprint stage. White too looks all over bar an accident for Bernal, whereas the KOM is wide open and impossible to call. Alaphilippe is no longer as short as he was, out to 7/2, but Ciccone, De Gendt, Landa, Nibali and Barguil are all at the top of the betting.

Barguil is still basically the same price he was at the start, he has looked good, but sitting in 17th, 3'26" down on GC, he might want to lose some time soon if he wants the freedom to go on the attack for KOM points. It looks like he is trying for a good GC place for the time being, until it falls apart.. 

Movistar look good for the team prize too, Soler getting in the break yesterday saw them take a nice 15 mins or so on all the other teams and they are some 25 mins clear of Ineos at the moment. 

The Route

Not a lot to say about it really, a shortish 167km run from Albi to Toulouse, with no major obstacles along the way. It should end in a sprint finish, but we thought that a lot of times this year already and were proved very wrong.. There is a little hill to get over with just 5kms to go, it's almost 5% for that kilometre, then a descent for 1500m and a flat last 2kms.  

Contenders and Favourites

So yet another sprint finish it seems, will this one be a bit more straight-forward than Monday's carnage?! There seems to be a lot of nervousness about this one still amongst the pros that were interviewed after stage 10, Dan Martin in particular kept saying that he just had to get through this one and start in the mountains before he can relax a little bit. 

There is nothing really on the parcours to trouble the sprinters, it should be a pretty straight-forward run to Toulouse, but the only thing they need to be careful about is that the course changes directions multiple times during the day. The weather is forecast to be very hot, 32 degrees, but also there is a westerly wind of around 6-9mph in the afternoon, meaning that it is a cross-wind from about the 80km to go mark all the way to Vendine with 36kms to go, before they turn right and head in to the headwind all the way to the finish. 

It should mean that the break will be doomed on that run-in to the finish in to the headwind, but also, if DQS and Ineos decide to do the same again with the cross winds from the 80km to go marker, then we could see carnage again. Riders will be very alert to the dangers again though and there will be a highly stressful fight to be at the front all day and we could see it getting really messy. 

But, there is also the chance that teams have a bit of a truce coming out of rest day, knowing what they face for the rest of the week. They've already caused some damage, it might just be a waste of energy to try to add to that, especially if they are all a bit more switched on to it. 

So the most likely result is another sprint finish. But what now?! Viviani was the fastest 'sprinter' today, coming from a long way back (8th place) with less than 150m to go, and was leading with 15m to go, only to be out-lunged by Van Aert on the line. A flatter, more organised sprint finish should serve him better, he didn't have Morkov with him at the finish today and Richeze looked cooked. If they can click it back in to gear, I think he wins again. 

There was a lot of support for Groenewegen for stage 10, I didn't really understand why there was so much support for him, I thought he might struggle today. But what I didn't expect was for him to be blown out the back like that, he's usually pretty good in the cross-winds. I would think that if DG does make it to the finish tomorrow with a chance in the sprint, Van Aert will go back to being a leadout man, I don't think they'll be sprinting against each other, that didn't work out so well for them earlier in the race. If he does have Van Aert leading him out and he finishes with his kick that won his stage for him, he will be a big danger too of course. But will he be tired after today? He tried to chase on with Teunissen I think it was but they never got close. 

Caleb Ewan.. Do we stick or twist with him? Unlucky again, but is it unlucky, or can he just not find that last bit of speed? Today he got caught flat a bit behind Matthews, but when he did get going he didn't really accelerate as fast as some of the others, he looked to be sprinting in too big a gear up the uphill drag to the finish.

Again, he too had lost all his leadout, he was the only Lotto rider at the front, which is amazing considering how the Belgians are supposed to be the masters at the crosswinds, but he just hitched himself to Matthews leadout train instead. With his own leadout train he should do a lot better and I think he will be top 3 and beating Sagan again. 

Michael Matthews blew it alright, but when he eventually wound up his sprint he actually finished really fast and almost caught Ewan, passing Sagan and Philipsen in the last 30m.  The last 5kms of this stage are pretty uncomplicated, the last 2kms are almost dead straight for the majority of it.

It kinks left with about 500m to go, but that's just a fast, sweeping bend rather than anything they'll need to slow down for (right). Maybe if he starts his sprint a bit sooner this time and winds up in to top gear by the last 50m he might be there with a chance of podium.

Peter Sagan again was disappointing for his backers in that sprint, especially those that had backed him down to around evens on Betfair approaching the last 10kms. He has shown repeatedly though in this race that when it comes to a pretty regular, straight-line sprint he just isn't as fast as the fastest 3 guys here (only in this case it was WVA and not DG). I think it could be the same tomorrow, 4th to 9th again the bet in play. 

Sonny Colbrelli had another great chance today as he sat just behind Sagan and Ewan hitting the last 200m, but once again, he just didn't have the speed or the power to pass them, coming in 7th again. Same with Matteo Trentin, two solid 4th to 9th place bets are those two guys at the moment. Alexander Kristoff got dropped today, but Philipsen didn't and he sprinted to a fine 6th place, Kristoff should be ok tomorrow you would think, but maybe he's starting to tire as I hinted at two days ago. If so, then maybe he should try a leadout for Philipsen and give him a go at sprinting for the win. 

And that's it again, none of the others will probably get a look in. Viviani to make amends on possibly his last stage before stepping off, Ewan again an e/w poke at 15/4 with 365. I know it's the same bet as stage 10, but I think it should go very close again.  

Recommendations

2pts win on Elia Viviani at 2/1 with various

1pt e/w on Caleb Ewan at 15/4 with Bet365

Matchbets

Pasqualon to beat Garcia Cortina and Ewan to beat Sagan - 2pts at 6/5

Matthews to beat Colbrelli - 2pts at 8/11

add Kristoff to beat Nizzolo to make it a double at 7/4 - 2pts on that with 365