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Published on Monday, 10 July 2017 09:50

TDF 2017 Stage 10

Périgueux to Bergerac  

Tuesday 11th July, 178kms 

A day back after the rest day in the Dordogne and for those of us watching it's going to be another rest day really... Yet another snoozefest, as they spend 178kms in a loop from Périgieux to Bergerac, with an inevitable sprint finish at the end of it. 

Of course we are now a lot lighter in numbers for the sprints, with the hugely disappointing elimination of Arnaud Démare for being over the time limit adding to the loss of Sagan and Cavendish earlier in the race. It was a huge twist of luck for us and our 12/1 on him for Green, he got sick two days ago from sleeping under the AC apparently. It now looks like it's probably all over bar an accident for Kittel in Green, same goes for Froome in Yellow with the abandonment of Richie Porte and Geraint Thomas, and the delay to Dan Martin. 

Stage 9 Review

Where do you even start??  I'm absolutely gutted for Richie Porte, and not just because I had money on him, but because I wanted to see if he could serve it up to Froome. He was going well today too, probing and prodding at Froome, shedding his team-mates when he pressed on. But it was his fault, not the course, or anyone elses - he got out of shape coming in to the bend, couldn't straighten up and when he hit that grass inside the bend there was no way back. He hit the rockface really hard, and that was the end of that. A real shame.

Dan Martin was unlucky to be brought down in the incident, but he was lucky that he wasn't badly hurt too and only lost 1'15" at the finish. I think he was doubly unlucky as I'd have fancied him to win at the finish in that company. And Geraint Thomas was also desperately unlucky again, being brought down by Rafal Majka, he's out the race too, but Majka limped to the finish covered in bandages and lives to fight another day, but I think we can kiss goodye to any KOM hopes we had, not that that was looking too hot anyway, he just didn't seem interested..

We also lost Gesink and Mori to crashes, Mori screaming in pain on the ground, and another 8 riders, including Démare and three of his team-mates missed the time limit and were booted out. So we suddenly went from 192 riders to 181, it was a day that was full of carnage and chaos.

It was also a day of monumental performances and good and bad luck. Barguil was immense, I was seriously impressed by him, as I had previously expressed my disappointment in him and his performances. I felt for him at the end when he thought he had got up to win, a win after being caught like that would have been incredible. But instead, it was Rigo Uran, stuck in a 53x11 for the last 11kms who threw his bike expertly to take the win by yet another tiny photo-finish margin. 

So it was carnage on the betting front for many too, with the bookies the winners today with that top 3, Pantano got in the early break for us but just didn't have the legs today. Brice Fiellu won his matchbet with team-mate Sepulveda, Feillu finishing a creditable 27th, but Sepulveda, who was in the break of the day, crashed and eventually finished in the grupetto. Porte crashing bust the other matchbets, which all won bar Porte, Atapuma beating Cummings, I think we were desperately unlucky with that too as Porte would have beaten Quintana. And that is because Quintana had a shocker today and couldn't stay with the Froome group, and neither could Contador, he had a stinker as well, losing 4'19".

At least the prediction that it would be a GC men's sprint and the winning margin would be less than a second came off, that 7/2 was nice to follow the 15/8 from the day before for the opposite result. I might just bet on the winning margin from now on... 

The Route

Nothing to say really about the route, flat, boring, with two little Cat 4 climbs that should have no impact on the outcome of the result whatsoever. Well we hope anyway, if it does have an outcome on the result it must be because someone high up on the GC crashes. The start and finish are only 50kms apart, but they go out on a horse-shoe shape route that takes them south-east first as far as the Cat 4 Cote de Domme, then they turn west and head towards Bergerac, passing through the Intermediate sprint with 57kms to go and then the Cat 4 Cote du Buisson de Cadouin with just 40kms to go. But with a flat run in, we should see a sprint finish in Bergerac. 

The finish is a bit tricky, with a roundabout right turn with 3kms to go, then over a bridge on the Dordogne, then another right turn on a roundabout. There's a sharp left with 900m to go, then another with 500m to go, and the finishing straight is 500m long, dead straight and dead flat, a perfect sprinter's finish. 

The weather looks like it will be perfect, low wind, no rain.. better than Monday when there are thunderstorms forecast for most of the day. 

Contenders and Favourites

So we have even less sprinters taking to the start line today, with Sagan, Cavendish and Démare out of the race, less guys to have to think about at least. 

Based on his results so far, you have to have Marcel Kittel as a clear favourite for this and he is probably going to win. BUT there are a few negative points to consider about him. First, he has lost a key leadout man in Matteo Trentin who was OTL on Sunday, he was second last men before Sabatini. Without him, Vermore is probably going to take up the pulling later and Bauer and Stybar will have to time it right too before delivering Sabatini through the last bend to take Kittel to 300m to go. 

Secondly, he's had a very hard day in the mountains on Sunday, and with a rest day just after, he might come to the finale a bit rusty. Thirdly, he was almost beaten by Edvald Boasson Hagen on Friday, scraping home for us by the tiniest of margins, that's not exactly a great yardstick. He was caught way too far back again, had to do it all on his own again and almost didn't get there. One of these days he's going to get caught out too far back and someone will cut across him or a slow-moving rider will block him and that will be that for him. So at 4/7, to be honest, I'd rather be a layer than a backer. 

But who could possibly beat him? Well Michael Matthews got very close to him on Friday, only just being beaten in to 3rd, and he now has renewed motivation to do well here, as he is in hot pursuit of Kittel's Green Jersey now that Démare has fallen away. He was in that big break on Sunday and did incredibly to hang on over the two HC climbs with his team-mates and take the intermediate sprint points. He clearly seems to be getting stronger and stronger and with Sunweb having their whole squad still in the race, I think they will be one of the strongest teams in the last 3kms. I expect a good showing from Matthews again in search of points and the 18/1 looks decent to me. 

André Greipel has now got three 3rds and a disappointing 9th in the four sprints so far, he had been pretty consistent and reliable for a top 3 up until the last sprint, but that last sprint was a mess to be fair. Looking back at the sprint, I think he backed the wrong wheel to follow in Démare, as Démare was already feeling ill and he was never challenging for the win. Now with FDJ out of the way too, Lotto Soudal might get a pretty clean leadout for him and LottoS have their full compliment of 9 left in the race. Sieberg, Gallopin, De Gendt and Bak need to get things right though and get him through that last left-hander in the first 3 or he won't get there I think. Given how close he has been previously, and with a clear run, he could well podium again. 

Alexander Kristoff has also been sprinting better on the flat stages than I expected, and now has a 2nd and two 4ths to his name in the last three sprints, the first sprint was a disaster for him down in 15th. Katusha have been prominent in leading him out and aren't afraid to throw a shoulder in when necessary. With Martin, Politt, Haller, Lammertink and Zabel they have a super-strong squad who are going to get it right one of these days and deliver him for a win. He's 10/1 with PP and that looks ok for an each-way too I think, he'll be close. 

Dylan Groenewegen has disappointed so far and it looks like our 'to win less than 2 stages' bet is probably safe, I'm just regretting not going all the way and backing him not to win a stage at all, as I can't see it happening while Kittel and Greipel are still in the race. His leadout has been chaotic and he has been unimpressive in the sprints, not getting the right wheels and not being close enough to even challenge for the podium spots. He might get closer now Démare is out of the way, but I think he's another one for the 4th to 9th place bets in-play. 

Nacer Bouhanni has been a major disappointment so far, with the last sprint being his worst, like quite a few mentioned above. Cofidis have been a shambles too like LottoJ and he has lacked power, speed and bravery. We'll never know how'd have really fared if Démare hadn't cut him up in the infamous Sagan sprint, but he didn't look like he had the speed anyway, or the desire to fight it out to the line when his chance had gone, unlike Greipel. Again though, with so few good sprinters left in the race, and possibly with a better leadout from Cofidis he can be fighting for that last bend near the front. His arch-nemesis Démare is no longer here and I'm sure that will give him an extra bit of motivation to go and try to win a stage, but I'm not sure even that will be able to get him up for the win. 

Edvald Boasson Hagen almost stunned us all with what would have been an incredible 80/1 sprint victory on stage 7, like with Barguil on Sunday, it looked at first glance like Eddie B had got up. His leadout was very impressive with RJVR being particularly impressive. BUT - he has lost a key man for his leadout with the loss of Renshaw on Sunday who was OTL, and Eisel has hurt his wrist, he was suffering from it during Sunday's stage. That might limit his chances a bit here so I'm tempted to take him on in the 4th to 9th or even 10th or worse market with Bet365. 

Dan McLay, Sonny Colbrelli, Davide Cimolai - all outsiders which will need a huge slice of good fortune I think to be in the mix for a podium spot. John Degenkolb  hasn't really got in to this race yet but did sprint a lot better in the last sprint stage, taking 5th place behind Kristoff. I think he'll find it tough to break in to the podium, but he should be one for the 4th to 9th place in-play betting. 

I know we should be all over Kittel with a max bet, but he's left us down many times in the past when looking like a penalty kick. He probably will win, he could win by a few bike-lengths, or they could mess it up again and come in to that last bend with too much to do and not get there this time as Sunweb and LottoS take control. Instead I'm going to have a shot at Matthews at a big-looking 18/1 and Greipel at 5/1, I think he will be top 3, we should make a small profit on that at worst. Watch out also for those in-play bets I mentioned above.  

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on André Greipel at 5/1 with PP

0.75pts each-way on Michael Matthews at 18/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

Matthews to beat EBH - 3pts at 4/5 with PP

Kristoff to beat Groenewegen - 3.5pts at 4/7

McLay to beat Cimolai - 3pts at 4/6 with PP - I really don't understand the fascination with Cimolai, he has come nowehere near a sprint yet, I guess they think he will sprint now Démare is gone.. but McLay is getting better and should beat him. Add Kristoff to beat Groenewegen to make it a 6/4 double - 2pts on that with PP