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Published on Thursday, 30 June 2016 00:10

Tour de France Other Markets

A selection of other markets

The Tour de France is the biggest race of the year in terms of the sheer number of markets on offer. No other race is given half as much attention by the bookies in the year, where sometimes we have to make do with a winners' market and not much else, sometimes nothing at all! 

Generally they don't offer a great deal of value, as the bookies are really venturing into unchartered territory, most of them are uncomfortable with just offering a market on all the runners in a race with less than a 150% over-round, others sometimes just don't bother at all. So to try to help I've gone through some of the many markets on offer and picked out some bets that interest me, from some solid looking bets to the weird and wacky.

I'll add more before the race starts, so check back here from time to time. If there are any markets you want to ask a question about, feel free to tweet me your question and I'll try to add it here.. 

01/07/16, 23:30 Update

GC matchbet - Tejay Van Garderen to beat Julian Alaphilippe at 4/5.. this looks like a crazy match-up to me, Alaphilippe is improving, but there's no way I can see him beating Tejay in a matchbet unless Tejay abandons. At 4/5 I have had 5pts and I'm after adding another 4pts on a double with Froome to beat Contador at 13/8. These are with Corals by the way, sorry, didn't add that at first. 

To win a stage / Not win a stage

Dan Martin to win a stage - 2pts at 5/4 with Bet365 - Martin was in sparkling form in the Dauphiné, and could have won two stages had the breaks not won them, escaping away from Froome and the other GC men twice, and finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th in three stages. If he gets a chance like those chances in the Tour, he'll take a stage, he might even get a chance as early as stage 2 with that uphill finish. Stage 5's finish will suit him too, if the break hasn't won it  

Ilnur Zakarin to win a stage - 1pt at 2/1 with Bet365. Zakarin has become a dad this week and I'm looking for the 'nappy effect' to help him land a stage victory so that he can retire early and go home to the new baby. 

Mark Cavendish NOT to win a stage - 3.5pts at 4/7 with Bet365 I can't see Cavendish beating Kittel or Greipel in this race.

Domenico Pozzovivo NOT to win a stage - 3pts at 1/3 with Bet365 - Pozzovivo doesn't win much these days, can't see him taking a stage in this race either. 

King of the Mountains Matchbets

Romain Bardet to beat Pinot - 2pts at evens with Bet365. I think Bardet might go for the KOM this year and if so he should beat Pinot in a KOM matchbet. 

Richie Porte to beat Tejay - 2pts at 4/6 with Bet365 - I think Porte will score some good results in the mountain stages and is capable of beating Tejay in this head to head I think.  

Points Matchbet Acca

Greipel to beat Cavendish, Bennett to beat McLay, Sagan to beat Kittel, Coquard to beat Degenkolb - 2pts on the four-fold at 5/4 with Bet365

Top 10 Finish

I've already added some of these in my overall preview, here they are again:

Richie Porte at 8/11 - if he finishes the race, he'll be in the top 10. 3pts

Alejandro Valverde at 9/4 - he has too much class and experience to be 9/4 to hit the top 10. 2pts

Dan Martin at 11/4 - he was 5/1 earlier in the week but I didn't act fast enough, I think he can top ten it this year as he seems to be riding really well. 1pt at 11/4

Lanterne Rouge

A ridiculous market as a) you have to try to pick the guy that will finish last and b) you have to make sure he actually gets to Paris and not abandon before the finish and c) you have riders deliberately waiting to have the 'honour' of finishing as Lanterne Rouge... Davide Cimolai was the 10/1 favourite with Paddy Power last year, he's the 12/1 favourite this year, even though he finished comfortably in 5th last position last year! Durbridge at 16/1 interests me a little bit, but this is a crazy market to bet on...  

Overall Head to Heads

This is a match-bet for the duration of the Tour, who will finish the higher of the two. If just one rider finishes he is declared the winner of the Match-bet, but if neither finish, the bet is void and you get your money back. Here are some that interested me:

Porte to beat Contador - as per my overall preview, giving Porte a chance to beat Contador at what looks like a very big price for a two-horse race! 

Mikel Landa to beat Joaquim Rodriguez - 1.5pts at 6/4 with PP

Romain Bardet to beat Tejay Van Garderen - 1.2pts at 5/6 with PP

More To come..

Winning Margin - This is a market, as you have probably guessed, on what will the time difference be between the winner and the 2nd place rider. Everything suggests that this race could be a very tightly run affair with not much in between the leaders. The betting reflects that too with 1 minute to 2 minutes and 59" the 6/4 favourite with PP. Second favourite is 0 to 59" at 13/8 with 3 minutes to 4 minutes and 59" 5/1 and over five minutes 5/1. 

The last six winning times are 7'37", 4'20", 3'21", 1'34", 39", 1'12" .. so the average for the last five years has been around 1 minute and 8". Last year I recommended a winning bet at 6/4 that the winning margin would be between 1 minute and 2'59". I think it will be really tight this year too and I think it will be in the 1-3 minute mark again so that looks like a bet again to me.

2pts on 1 minute to 2 minute 59" at 6/4 with PP. 

Number of Finishers - This is always an interesting market to me, how many riders will make it to Paris! The line seems to be mainly settled around 160.5 finishers, which is slightly below the average number of finishers over many years. Last year it was 160, in 2014 it was 164, 2013 was 169, 2012 was 153, 2011 was 165, 2010 was 170. If you were betting on unders on each of the last 5 years you'd only have won once, with the average number of finishers coming in at 164.2. But in 2009 it was 153, in 2008 - 143, 2007 was 140, 2006 was a ridiculously low 136 and 2005 was 155. Now you would have won 5 out of five on those years and the average was just 145.4, making the ten-year average 154.8 finishers. 

So what is going on here? How can it go from 136 in 2005 to 170 in 2010? That's the equivalent of four teams less finishing in 2005! Of course things like the route, the weather, the nature of the race etc can all play a big part in riders packing it up before the finish, but also there seems to be far more pressure on riders with every passing year to keep pushing and to try to finish the race. 

This year I think it could be less than the 160.5 line that Bet365 have for a few reasons - 1. it's a hard route this year with a tricky opening week and a brutally hard finish to the race. 2. The Olympics are just a few weeks after the Tour finishes and a lot of riders will have one eye on the Olympics if they are well out of contention heading in to the third week - Cavendish for example will be long gone I think by the time they get to Paris. And 3. there have been a lot of guys getting sick this year. I don't know what it is, whether it's the poor weather and all the rain, or guys aren't taking whatever medicines they used to to prevent colds and so on for fear of violations, or they're getting back doses of something they are micro-dosing! Whatever it is, there could be several who end up abandoning sick. So I think under 160.5 looks good, the price is short, but still worth a bet. 

4pts on under 160.5 finishers at 8/11 with Bet365 

Number of riders wearing the Yellow Jersey - This is another interesting market as it is your opinion on how various stages will go and how many different riders will wear the yellow jersey over the course of the three weeks. Last year I thought there would be more than four, and there technically was, but Froome regained the jersey he had lost to Tony Martin after stage six when Martin crashed out. This year the line is over/under 5.5 jersey wearers at evens with Bet365. 

I think it will be more than 5 - I think it might go something like this. Kittel or a sprinter takes it on stage 1; a Puncheur like Dan Martin or Alaphilippe or Sagan takes it on stage 2; A sprinter like Greipel or Coquard who maybe took bonus seconds on st1 and stuck close enough on stage 2 could take the jersey back on stage 3 with more sprint bonus seconds, both at the intermediate and the finish; Stage 5, a GC man like Dan Martin or Valverde, who had finished well on stage 2 takes it; on stage 7 a break wins and maybe takes the yellow too and we haven't even got to the big mountain stages when the GC men really get involved. That's five already, we could see another two owners of it by the time the race finishes. 

2pts win on over 5.5 jerseys at evens with Bet365