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Published on Wednesday, 29 June 2016 07:12

Tour de France Outsiders

Can anyone stop the top 3?

I have covered the Favourites to win the 2016 Tour de France in this other preview already, now let's take a look at the best of the rest to try to find someone who could pull off the shock of the year and land the big prize. 

According to their odds, there's a 92% chance that the top three in the betting will win the race. That leaves just an 8% chance for all the others.. But then if you add in the bookies next 3 in the betting - Porte, Pinaut and Aru, with bookies over-round included, it is now 105% chance! So no chance at all then for anyone outside my 'Favourites' list then it seems. 

It's not unheard of to have big shocks though, particularly in getting on to the podium, Pinot and Peraud were huge prices to win last year, so the each-way bets were pretty tasty. Froome was a short price to win it in 2013 and there was a bit of a shock with Contador finishing off of the podium, eclipsed by Quintana and Rodriguez. In 2012 Wiggins was hot favourite, but Froome was a bit of a surprise to follow his team-mate home in 2nd and in 2011 the big shock was Wiggo crashing out on stage 7, Evans winning and the two Schleck brothers in 2nd and 3rd was a pretty surprising podium.

There is a chance that someone could sneak in there like Kruijswijk and Chaves at the Giro of course, let's take a look at the best of the rest now..

Romain Bardet - AG2R

Best odds 66/1 (Various)

I was really split as to include him in the 'Favourites' preview or to have him here in the outsiders section.. I think he'll have a good race this year.. In the end I put here because of his price..

Sixth in the TDF in 2014 and 2nd in the Young Riders jersey competition behind Pinot, Bardet promised a bright future for French cycling fans.. He took a brilliant stage win in the Dauphiné, the same stage that was repeated in the TDF, but couldn't pull off the double. 

He did manage to finish ninth overall, and took a great stage win to St Jean de Maurienne and came 2nd to Quintana in the Young Riders competition. He was 110/1 last year, he is half that price nearly this year.

His season has been a mixed bag, with mediocre performances interspered between good one, but he started to come good in the Dauphiné where he ran Chris Froome closest to take 2nd place and almost took the stage win with Pinot. He is a good climber and should do ok in the uphill TT, but he might struggle in the longer TT. Watch out for him on stage 5 to Le Lioran, he is from close to the area and these are his training roads. In fact, as a kid he used to go skiing in the Lioran, so he is sure to put on a show that day. Wouldn't it be amazing if he won the stage, took the KOM jersey and went in to yellow too that day in front of friends and family?!

As for his overall chances? It might depend on that day.. If he takes yellow, he could defend it until maybe Bastille day on Ventoux, or maybe if he's on a really good day, for a lot longer. At 66/1 he might be worth a small bet for podium. 

Geraint Thomas - Team Sky

Best odds 100/1 (Various)

Thomas rather incredibly ranges from just 20/1 to 100/1 for the Tour, but even at 100/1 I'm not interested. He has been hot and cold this season too, winning in the Algarve and in Paris-Nice ahead of Porte and Contador, but his performances in races since then have been far from inspiring, especially the last two rides in Romandie and the TDS. 

But of course, he's here for one thing only, to look after Froome and help him win the race, so fighting for GC in Switzerland probably wasn't top of his priorities. If you want to back him at 100/1 though, you are probably basically taking a punt that something will happen to Froome mid-race. And if that's the case, I'd rathar be on his team-mate Mikel Landa instead at the same price of 100/1. Landa was favourite for the Giro before illness stuck and he was pulled out, he also says that he is coming here to 'support and learn' from Froome, but will obviously take chances if and when they arrive. 

Rafal Majka - Tinkoff-Saxo - Best odds 400/1 (Bet365)

Yes, you read that right - 400/1 for Majka... Should anything happen to Contador, the KOM jersey winner in 2014  could be there to pick up the pieces. He doesn't look to have had a great year on the face of it though but his 5th place in the Giro was a pretty decent result. 

He also just won the Polish Nationals last weekend, so the legs are looking good, but I think he, Kreuziger and Kiserlovski will be doing their utmost to get him in to the last few days still in the hunt.

Alejandro Valverde - Movistar - Best odds 100/1 (Bet365)

Like Nibali, Thomas and possibly even Van Garderen, Valverde is another back-plan here to support the team leader. Valverde will have to support Quintana, for as long as Quintana is still in the race and challenging. If something happens Quintana, expect Valverde to suddenly become a lot more aggressive and ambitious again. 

Despite being 110/1 on Betfair last year, and something like 80/1 with the bookies I think, he did indeed ride a cracking race last year to finish on the podium, over three minutes clear of Nibali in 4th place. He started ok, but moved in to 4th place after the TTT on stage 9 and never went lower than 4th for the rest of the race, moving up to 3rd after stage 16 to Gap. 

That is the thing with Valverde though - he is so superbly consistent that he can work hard for Quintana, but then keep rolling fast until the end of the stage, preserving a good placing for himself and a good result for the team in the Team Classification. He could well do something similar this year and if anything were to happen to Quintana, a podium wouldn't be out of the question again. Third in the Giro d'Italia, 3rd in the Spanish TT championships and 4th in the road race, he looks in good shape. He is 9/4 to finish in the top 10 and I think that's a good bet. I'm having 2pts on that. 

Others?

There are so many other top, top riders in this race, it's difficult to call some of these guys others on an outsiders list, it's almost disrespectul! 

Riders like Dan Martin - in superb form in the Dauphiné to steal 3rd spot from Porte on the last stage, he should have had two stage wins, were it not for breaks that had stayed away. The dilemma with Martin is that he probably will have a bad day at some point and slip out of contention, so does he go stay stage hunting before that happens when he has the chance of some good results, or save himself for the GC and reign in his stage win ambitions. I think he can do both and I think he'll have a great Tour.

I have my eye on a few stages already for him and if he rides like he did in the Dauphiné, where he stayed with the top climbers longer than he normally does, and indeed attacks away from the likes of Froome on key stages, then he should do very well. The long TT will see to his GC chances though I think, it's most definitely his weak spot. I think 5th to 10th is possible, as are a few stages possibly. 

Julian Alaphilippe, his team-mate, could have one of those dream races, or it could all be a damp squib. He's had a superb year and expectations are high, and that's not just from those holding 1000/1 tickets on him! He's now around 150/1, but incredibly is as short as 50/1. I think that is madness, he will have some good days for sure, a stage win isn't out of the question, but I think over three weeks, with that finish to the race he will fade towards the end and out of contention. I don't think he'll even finish in the top 10. 

Bauke Mollema is a huge looking 200/1, he just seems to be a rider who can't deliver on the potential and expectations. He's had a pretty mixed year that started well with 3rd in Andalucia, but since then it's been pretty 'meh' from him, with a DNF in the Dauphiné after he got ill.

Warren Barguil is another rider who could have a spectacular TDF, he has been riding ever so well this year and was an impressive 3rd in the TDS just two weeks ago. He is the strong favourite to take the young riders jersey home, but is a massive 250/1 with Boylesports to win the race. Of course it has been done in the past where the young rider also won the TDF (Fignon, Ulrich, Contador and Schleck have done it) but it would be the heralding of a superstar if he was to pull it off this year. 6/5 to finish in the top 10 looks ok though, but I'm worried about the TTs as they are his achilles heel.

How the mighty have fallen with Joaquim Rodriguez, 100/1 last year, he's 200/1 this year.. a man that has finished on the podium in stage races twelve times in his career, including 3rd in the TDF and the Vuelta and 2nd in the Giro. He has finished in the top 10 on ten Grand Tours and has won stages in 9 out of the last 13 Grand Tours he has started, including one in the Vuelta and two in the TDF last year. Incredibly for a man of his hit rate he has yet to win a race this year, that's a pretty long time for Purito to go without a win. I think he will be stage hunting in this race, maybe even try for the KOM jersey, but 15th or lower is where he'll finish in the GC.

Roman Kreuziger, Adam Yates, Ilnur Zakarin, Wilco Kelderman, Sergio Luis Henao, Matthias Frank, Rigo Uran, Jakob Fuglsang, Louis Meintjes - all huge prices and riders who could, if on really good form, could break the top 10, maybe even the top 6. And what about Rui Costa - a world-class rider, a World Champion rider.. he's as big as 400/1 with PP and Bet365..  

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS:

Last year's race looked ridiculously hard to call and I was torn between Froome and Quintana, eventually going for Quintana. In the end, they finished in the betting order, Froome 1st (2/1), Quintana 2nd (11/4), but 100/1 man Valverde snuck in to 3rd ahead of 5/1 Nibali and 9/2 Contador. 

This year is no different, with Froome, Quintana and Contador looking like they should make up the podium, only thing left to figure out is the order. Well, after weeks of deliberating and thinking about it, I still find it really hard to separate them. I am going to back Quintana again this year though, but I'm not going to do it straight away. Instead, I'm going to wait until the end of stage 4, assess how it's gone, and then back him ahead of stage 5 to Le Lioran.

I don't think his price will have shortened much, if at all by then and we should be able to back him around the 9/4 mark on Betfair or 2/1 with the bookies still I think. Of course, if Froome crashes out he'll be even money or shorter, but we're also protected against him crashing out or losing time in the wind on the north coast stages. 

Froome of course will be a major force to be reckoned with in this race, with that formidable team to back him up, but I'm taking the chance this time that Quintana can match him on Ventoux this year, or not lose as much time at least, will hold his own in the two TTs, and then be the stronger of the two in the last week which seems to be one of his strengths.

Contador should be top 6, but I'm going out on a limb and saying he won't make podium, instead I think Richie Porte at 18/1 could be a challenger this year, he'll do well in the two TTs and can stay close to the leaders on the big climbs. Contador, Bardet, Valverde, Aru, Pinot, Van Garderen and Barguil could round out the top 10, although there's always room for a surprise, someone like Mikel Landa, Dan Martin or Wilko Kelderman.   

Recommendations:

Back Nairo Quintana, but maybe wait until after stage 4. I am going 4pts at 2/1 or bigger if available still on Betfair. 

0.75pts each-way on Richie Porte at 18/1 with Bet365

2pts on Alejandro Valverde to finish in the top 10 at 9/4 with Paddy Power

0.5pts win on Romain Bardet to finish in the top 3 at 10/1 with Ladbrokes

Matchbets

Porte to beat Contador - 1pt at 3/1 with Paddy Power

Mikel Landa to beat Joaquim Rodriguez - 1.5pts at 6/4 with PP

Romain Bardet to beat Tejay Van Garderen - 1.2pts at 5/6 with PP