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Published on Monday, 26 February 2018 22:13

Strade Bianche 

Siena to Siena

Saturday 3rd March 2018, 184kms

The 12th running of the Strade Bianche takes place this weekend, and although it is only in its infancy compared to the other Classics, it's firmly establishing itself as a riders and fans favourite, with some riders even going so far as to say it's one of their favourite races of the year now.. 

What a strange opening weekend we had in Flanders, with two pretty poor races it has to be said. The Omloop was a terrible bore, the change in the finish made no difference to the excitement or the outcome of the race, there were no killer attacks on the Muur or Bosberg really, and it was down to the uber-strong Astana team's strength in numbers, coupled with a reluctance to chase Valgren down by any of the others in the break that saw him solo to victory. Yes, he was strong, and we saw that the next day when he helped drag back that strong break in the KBK, but a break full of quality like that should never have let him go. 

And KBK - what a snooze-fest that was for the most of it. The break away on the Kwaremont was unseen by TV cameras, and although it contained some very strong riders, including most of the favourites like Van Avermaet, Stuyven and Démare, and got their lead up to over a minute with 50kms to go, the Astana cyborgs got to the front and pulled them back in about 15kms. From then on it was always going to be a sprint, and my man Groenewegen pulled off a superb win for LottoNL, winning it by a country mile from Démare, landing the bets. 

One thing that I was very disappointed with this weekend was the TV production and coverage offered by the production company and Eurosport. First, Eurosport had been showing the Omloop on the Player app since 1.15pm. When it came to the alloted time for 'live' coverage on TV at 2.30pm, Eurosport decided to show that WattsZap garbage of riders crashing and doing stupid things on bikes, rather than going to the live coverage. There can't be any excuse from them of not having live pictures yet, they had been showing them for almost 90 minutes on the Player before they finally cut to the race.

There were less than 40kms left of the first big one-day race of the season by the time they got there. And then, after maybe five minutes of coverage they cut to a 3 minute ad break. And right as the race was coming to a climax with less than 10kms to go, they again went to a 3 minute ad-break, killing the excitement. And then Sunday, the main action of the day on the Kwaremont was also missed as they started their coverage so late, but another big issue I had with Sunday's race was the lack of information.

There was clearly only about half the peloton left hitting the last 50kms or so, but we had almost no idea who was there and who wasn't bar being able to identify some key riders and kit, like Démare's French champions kit for example, or confirmed dropped riders like Fernando Gaviria. We went in to the last 5kms without having seen Groenewegen, had no idea if Bennett, Planckaert, Cort Neilsen and others were in the race still or not, there was almost no identification of riders going on. With riders wrapped up in gilets, jackets and assorted other winter gear it made it harder to identify who was who. It was yet another situation where numbers on helmets would have helped somewhat in helping identify who was still actually in the race.  

Anyway, enough of the moaning, and on to Strade Bianche..! It's a similar route to previous years, but with 1.1km more dirt roads, making it a total of 63kms of the 'Strade Bianche' this year and over 10kms more than two years ago.  Last year's was a cracker, run in wet conditions, making it even more difficult than usual.. It all kicked off again with 50kms to go on the long, hard section of the Monte Santa Maria, where Van Avermaet, Stybar, Dumoulin and Wellens got away on the climb, and were joined shortly afterwards by Benoot, Durbridge and Kwiatkowski, and with 46kms to go, the race was already just between these guys. 

They traded blows on the climbs in the last 25kms, as one by one riders started to fall by the wayside, until there was just Kwiatkowski, Wellens, Stybar and GVA heading in to the Settore Sterrato No 10, the Colle Pinzuto with just 19kms to go. Juul Jensen, Dumoulin and Durbridge managed to catch them up as they eased off a little and regathered themselves. But with 15.5kms to go, Kwiatkowski took off from the lead group and quickly gained over 20". GVA, Wellens and Stybar dropped the others on the final section of gravel roads and fought out the minor places behind Kwiatkowski, who won by 15" from GVA, with Wellens in 3rd... Stybar let down his each-way backers by finishing 4th.. 

The race started in 2007 as the Monte Pashi Eroica and was orignally held in October - the first running of the race was won by Alexander Kolobnev. In 2008 it moved to its current place in the calendar in March, generally a week before Tirreno-Adriatico. In 2009 it was renamed the Montepaschi Strade Bianche and from 2012 has been known simply as the Strade Bianche. Other winners of the race include Thomas Lövkvist in 2009, Maxime Iglinskiy in 2010, Philippe Gilbert in 2011, Moreno Moser in 2013, Michal Kwiatkowski in 2014 (and 2017), Zdenek Stybar in 2015 and Fabian Cancellara in 2016..  

The Route

A twisty and undulating course, with no long climbs but with punchy hills, most significantly on the eleven unpaved parts. There are roughly 63km of gravel roads, appearing in 11 sectors (eight of those shared with the Women's Elite course). Starting from Siena, the first undulating kilometres are on tarmac before reaching the 2.1km gravel Sector 1 at km 15, which is perfectly straight and slightly uphill.

Shortly after they face Sector 2 (4.7km), the course’s first real challenge with a short descent and a long climb with parts at over 10%. The course will then go through Radi, where Sector 3 starts (4.4km) and immediately after Sector 4, one of its classic gravel sectors (5.5km, featured in the course since its first edition) with no significant gradient and leading to Buonconvento. The Montalcino is next, (4km at 5%) and after Torrenieri the riders will face Sectors 5 (11.9km) and 6 (8km) with only 1km of tarmac in between them. Both are hard, hilly, very punchy and with many bends, climbs and descents.

Soon the route reaches Monteroni d’Arbia, which marks the beginning of Sector 7 of San Martino in Grania (9.5km) in the middle of the Crete Senesi. It's a long sector with continuous up and downs in the first part, ending up with a twisting climb before meeting the tarmac again. In Ponte del Garbo (Asciano) gravel Sector 8 begins. At 11.5km it's the hardest of the race, mostly uphill and characterised by tough hills, the most important being those close to Monte Sante Marie with some very steep gradients.

The penultimate sector is one of the most crucial, the scene of where the significant moves have happened for the last three years, the Colle Pinzuto, which features gradients of up to 15%. After a few kilometres the riders will face the last sector (Sector 11, 1.1km) which features a demanding descent followed by a very punchy climb (max 18%) that ends up at the Tolfe. From here only 12km separate the riders from the finish in Piazza del Campo, Siena.

It's a really tricky finale though which you will need to have saved some energy for, it starts rising uphill as they enter the town with 1km to go, gradually getting steeper until they are in the narrow, house-lined Via San Catarina which hits gradients of 15%. It was here that Van Avermaet made his move in 2015 and Valverde went pop, and where he dropped Wellens and Stybar last year.

Then a sharp right turn and it eases off a little, a left turn with 300m to go and they arc slightly uphill along the Via Bianchi del Sotto before a sharp right with 150m to go in to the Piazza and the finish line. It's a finish that can see podium chances disappear in the space of 300m, as we saw with the finish of the last three years.. 

Weather

A note on the weather - it is looking like a repeat of last year's wet race as the forecast for the Siena region on Saturday isn't great, it looks like it is going to be raining all day, with the heaviest rain forecast for the morning, getting a little lighter in the afternoon. It snowed there during the week, but that's expected to have passed by Sunday and temperatures will be around 8-9°, a lot warmer than the Flanders Classics races have been run in last weekend, but still a lot colder than usual for this race.. 

The wind might be a factor too, its's mostly a southerly wind, but it's not that strong this year, only blowing to around 8-9mph. It will be a cross/headwind mostly on the way out to the southern-most part and then a cross/tailwind mostly on the way back. It does mean though that in that last few kilometres as they head back towards Siena it will be a headwind, something that will work against solo riders on their last legs. 

Contenders and Favourites

With Paris Nice starting the next day, we are missing some of the top riders, but as Tirreno Adriatico doesn't start until Wednesday we still have an excellent lineup of riders here, with some using this as a good final training session. For some riders, this is one of their favourite races and one of their targets for the season so it will still be super-competitive. 

This is a race that takes a real all-rounder, but more so, the real strong men - look at last year's top four for your archetypal Strade Bianche rider - Kwiatkowski, Van Avermaet, Wellens and Stybar. There are lots of hills to get over but also lots of really fast parts. The chalk roads are challenging and can be dangerous at times, and can really sap the energy, even more so when it's wet and windy. And of course the finish requires an explosion of power up that last kilometre, especially in the parts that hit 16% inside the last 500m.

"The beast from the East" Peter Sagan makes a welcome return to racing this weekend after skipping the OHN and KBK, and he has the perfect profile based on that description above. He came close two years ago, kicking off the move that eventually reeled in Brambilla for the first time and took the race-deciding selection with him on the Colle Pinzuto.

He struggled to go with Cancellara and Stybar when they accelerated on the final climb though, eventually coming in 4th, just after Brambilla. But last year, when favourite for the race he abandoned with 70kms to go, his team stating that he was feeling unwell. 

In 2016 I think that he showed too much out on the course and didn't have enough left in the tank at the finish, something he was a bit prone to doing a few years ago.. He hasn't had great luck in the race prior to this either though - in his first ride in the race in 2012 he suffered a puncture and a crash and in 2013 he chased home his team-mate Moreno Moser who had attacked the remains of his break as they hit the final steep parts and he took the 'win' from the bunch.

In 2014 he was beaten by Kwiatkowski who was the better man at the finish. And in 2015, he was active and in the initial big move, but just couldn't keep up when Vanmarcke, Valverde and Van Avermaet accelerated on the climb with 25kms to go. But what Sagan will we get here after taking an extended break to be with his new son? He had a pretty good TDU, finishing 3rd, 4th, 5th and 1st in the first four stage, taking the race lead, before struggling on Willunga and dropping out of contention. He finished off with another podium though in 3rd place on the final stage. He's a short price, and to be honest, I'm not sure I want to back him at that sort of price, given his record here...

Greg Van Avermaet is back again this year to try to improve upon his 2nd place from last year and 6th place from two years ago. His record here is very impressive - in the seven times he has entered this race he has finished 13th, 9th, 5th, 6th, 2nd, 6th and 2nd. 

This race is a real race of attrition - there is no such thing as a peloton once they hit the last 30kms. So it's very important to have some strong team-mates to help you along the way. One of the strongest teams here is BMC again - we saw how important Oss was to Van Avermaet in 2015 and 2016. He has no Oss this year of course (he'll be helping Peter Sagan for Bora) but he has Bookwalter, Schar, Vliegen, Bettiol, Caruso and Kung, a pretty impressive line-up.  

He was superb in this race in 2015, really aggressive, starting the main move on the Santa Maria and also attacking in the last 500m to get rid of Valverde, but he was just outmuscled by Stybar in the finish. And last year he was unable to go with Kwiat, but left his rivals behind again on the final climb.. will he be going for victory this year when attacking up the final hill? He was involved in the main attacks of the day in both OHN and KBK last weekend, but ended up empty-handed, his results of 50 and 56th were not what he or most fans were expecting.. Can he get back on track here?

Quickstep have had a pretty good start to the season, but were left podium-less in the opening Flanders weekend, with Gilbert's 5th place in OHN and Lampaert's 12th in KBK their best results.. They made up for it a little bit in Le Samyn in mid-week though with a 1-2 from Terpstra and Gilbert. They have an abundance of talent for this race though, the trouble for them, and us, is trying to pick which of their horses to back.

Zdenek Stybar, he is tailor-made for this course being an ex-cyclocross champion and he showed in the last three years that he has all the atributes to win the race - he can climb, he can power it on the flats, he can descend and he's got a hell of a punch at the finish.. He has finished 1st, 2nd and 4th in the last three years, who could bet against him being up there again Saturday? 

He was very aggressive in Omloop, attacking on multiple occassions, but ended up finishing in 20th place, but he didn't do KBK unlike last year, maybe he wanted an extra day's recovery for SB this year.  I think he has a big chance again, but there's not a lot of value in him at just 4/1, but he's a pretty strong shout for a podium.       

Along with Stybar, they have some others in the team who could go well, most notably, Philippe Gilbert. Gilbert was their best finisher in the Omloop on Saturday in 5th place, and he showed in some attacks in the Algarve that he is in pretty good shape, to follow on his 3rd in Murcia at the start of the season. And just Wednesday he was part of the QuickStep team that destroyed the opposition in Le Samyn, finishing 2nd to Terpstra, despite suffering a mechanical which cost him quite a bit of time..

A former winner here in 2011, he hasn't ridden it since 2012 though, what brings him back here this year? Does he fancy his chances here or is it just more prep for his defence of the Ronde in a month's time? It is a far weaker team they have here this year than last though, no Vakoc, Brambilla, Vermote, Trentin or Jungels, but they do have Pieter Serry, Eros Capecchi and Max Schachman, but I'm not sure what Gaviria and Richeze are doing here, doubt they'll even finish. So it looks like it's all about Stybar and Gilbert, I'd plump for Stybar out of those two.

Astana have a number of options again this year, but it's a very different line-up to last year's too.. But you have to consider Astana for any race they enter at the moment, they are all flying and have the added motivation in that they are all potentially riding for their futures, with the team struggling financially.

Moreno Moser won here in 2013, but the other four times he's finished between 38th to 52nd, generally mid-division. He did warm up for this though with a very impressive solo victory (while riding for the 'Italy' team) in the Trofeo Laigueglia a few weeks back. But that was his first win in almost three years, he doesn't win too often these days. Alexey Lutsenko has done it twice, but hasn't been involved, he's too short at 18/1. Andrey Grivko has done it six times and finished 21st to 34th, Davide Villela has never ridden it before.

Oscar 'The Cat' Gatto has done this race seven times and has finished 3rd (2012), 6th (2015) and 7th (2011) so he clearly knows his way around this course. He's riding well at the moment too like all the Astana riders and he could well be near the front hitting the last 20kms Sunday. 

Besides Eitxx-Quickstep, the other Belgian team, Lotto-Soudal, also have a team here that looks pretty strong. Tiesj Benoot rode ok over the weekend in Belgium but didn't make any sort of impression like he did last year. He was very impressive here for the last two years, finishing just behind the leaders in 8th place both years. Neither the climbs nor the gravel roads seemed to phase him, but I think he struggled on the final climb compared to the others, and that could be his achilles heel again, unless he's solo on the final climb, I think there are others who wil beat him. 

They will miss Tim Wellens here though, he has decided not to ride it, which is surprising seeing as he finished 3rd last year and likes the cold and wet.. He's heading to Paris-Nice instead though, so he must fancy his chances of doing well there.

Instead they will look to Jens Keukeleire and Nikolas Maes to try to do something, but neither of them have stellar records here, JK didn't finish last year and was 35th the year before, NM didn't finish last year. 

Mitchelton-Scott aren't a team that would spring to mind for a race like this, but with 20kms to go last year they had both Chris Juul-Jensen (right) and Luke Durbridge in the main move of the day with GVA and Kwiatkowski, they both rode extremely well to rejoin the group after being dropped earlier. Durbridge finished an impressive 6th, coming home with Tom Dumoulin, a minute behind Stybar. He has also finished 17th two years before, so he seems to like the course. He finished 2nd to Rohan Dennis in the Australian TT championships this year, but was pretty average in OHN and KBK. 

Juul-Jensen went on to finish 7th, 3" behind his team-mate, a superb result by a guy who normally spends his races working his ass off for everyone else. He has finished 18th, 28th, DNF and 7th in the last 4 years, so he too seems to go well here, but there's not a lot to go on in his form so far this year, although he did finish 15h in Murcia. I think they will be involved, possibly one of them will top 10, but hard to see a podium from them. 

Bahrain Merida have an interesting team here, with Vincenzo Nibali again leading the team. I called it last year that I didn't think he'd be involved at the finish, that he'd struggle around the same place as the previous year when the pace really whips up. He finished 44th, over 13 minutes down. I think it will be similar this year. Giovanni Visconti is a Tuscan resident though, so watch out for him at a bigger price. He was well off the pace last year, coming home over 10' down, but the year before he finished 16th, just 2'22" down. They also have a potential candidate in Sonny Colbrelli, he has been riding well this year, winning the Hatta Dam stage in Dubai, but his best result here in three attempts has been 32nd last year. 

EF Cannondale have a strong looking team here too, with Sep Vanmarcke looking to build on his fine 3rd place in the Omloop for the second year running. He came close to winning this in 2015, just running out of gas in the last kilometre, and was left behind by Stybar, Van Avermaet and Valverde. Vanmarcke looked very strong to me in the Omloop, but once again got it wrong tactically, attacking weakly and then letting Valgren go and leaving it too late to chase him. He should go well here again, especially if it's cold and wet, he seems to like that. 

He has Alex Howes, Dani Moreno, Simon Clarke, Taylor Phinney and Tom Van Asbroeck in the team too, with Phinney making his debut for the year, a tough introduction to racing in Europe. Van Asbroeck finished 14th in KBK, but was well off the pace in 71st in SB last year. Dani Moreno has never done this race, but has podiumed in Milano-Torino and Lombardia in the past, although I'm not sure he'll go so well in the freezing cold and mud this weekend.

Team Sky have last year's winner Michal Kwiatkowski, who of course won this race also in 2014 with a powerful late attack, holding off Sagan and Valverde (left). I underestimated his chances last year, thinking he had come off the boil since winning the World Championships, but he proved me wrong and went on to have a superb year.

He has the right attributes for a win here alright though, he can climb, he's a good bike handler, he can cope with a long and messy day in the cold and wet and he has a strong team behind him to deliver him to the last 50kms in good shape.

And he has a killer instinct.. He times attacks well, and even if he comes to the final kilometre with a small group he has the power to attack away from them. After an unimpressive start to his season in Valenciana, he came alive in the Algarve with two stage wins and a 4th place in the ITT on stage 3. The win in the final stage was particularly significant, as it saw him solo away from the break he was in on the final climb, and win with enough in hand on Geraint Thomas to steal the GC off his team-mate. He looks primed and ready after that run to go well here again, he even has been doing recons for Milan San Remo this week in heavy snow, so he has a lot of targets this spring it would seem. 

He did a recon ride here too in the snow on Tuesday, he's ready.. He's the 2/1 favourite wih the early Belgian bookies for a reason. But 2/1 is very short to be taking this early, I think even if we wait until the last 50kms or so we might still get close to 2/1 in-play if he's involved. Or some other bookies might come out with bigger odds on him worth taking closer to the race, If you get anything around 7/2 or 4/1, back him.

They have a number of other candidates who could be key players in this race too though if luck is with them. Salvatore Puccio was going well two years ago until he had multiple mechanical issues and dropped away. He only finished 33rd last year though. Gianni Moscon is going well this year, with 2nd and 8th in two of the Mallorca races a month ago and 12th overall in Valenciana. He finished 17th here last year but was almost 6 minutes down, I'm not sure he'll get any closer this year, but he has come on a lot in 12 months.

Their final outside chance could be Diego Rosa.. Rosa rode ok in Valenciana, finishing 17th in the GC and he finished an excellent 5th here when riding for Astana in 2015, coming home on his own just 10" behind Vanmarcke. He was disappointing here last year though, coming home in 83rd.

I was thinking of giving Fabio Felline of Trek another go.. I fancied him for last year's race after finishing 4th in Omloop and he went ok, but was outisde the placings in 13th place, to follow on his 8th place from the year before. His ability to get over hills in stages and one-day races marks him out as a danger man on a course like this. I thought he might go ok in the OHN this year, but he was way down in 85th place, but a lot of riders never got a look in in that strange race. He has Jasper Stuyven to look after him and Michael Gogl, Laurent Didier and Eugenio Alafaci, and could be involved in the closing stages, but can he beat the likes of Kwiatkowski, Sagan or GVA? It's unlikely...  

LottoNL Jumbo have Primus Roglic here, but he has flopped here two years running and doesn't seem to go well in one-day races. He did go ok in Valenciana, finishing 5th on the uphill stage 4, just 10" behind Valverde, to help him to 6th overall, but I can't have him. Steven Kruijswijk makes his debut in the race, but I can't see him having the fortitude for a race like this, same goes for George Bennett I think. 

Dimension Data's best hope is probably Edvald Boasson Hagen, but he hasn't a great record in tough one-day races. He did finish 19th here last year though, but started this year with DNFs in the OHN and KBK, not a great sign ahead of this. Scott Thwaites might go ok too, he skipped Le Samyn last year (a race he finished 2nd in the year before) in favour of preparing for this, and he finished an impressive 10th. He also finished 16th in the Ronde last year and just last weekend finished 13th in OHN, he could be a dark horse at a big price of 300/1.. will be a big ask to beat the favourites up that hill, but you'd never know what could happen on a wet and muddy course.

They also have new boy Julien Vermote and he rode very well in KBK, getting in the break towards the end that looked like it just might make it, but were reeled in by the charging peloton, but he still had the legs to sprint to 9th place. He has finished 14th here in 2015, but was in 27th and 34th the next two years. He might have an outside chance of a top 10, but I can't see him making the podium.

Sunweb have Tom Dumoulin leading their chances, and Dumoulin has ridden well here in the past, most notably last year when he battled back with Juul-Jensen and Durbrudge to catch the leaders in the closing stages, but just couldn't stay with them on the final hard climb to Tolfe. He did finish in 5th place though, improving on his 17th in 2012 and 14th in 2014.

They had Michael Matthews down to ride this but he has cried off on Thursday, as it was revealed he suffered a small fracture in his shoulder after crashing in the closing stages of KBK on Sunday. They also have Soren Kragh Andersen and Simon Geschke who could go well, Geschke finished 10th here in 2014, but I think it's all about Dumoulin for them on Saturday. 

Diego Ulissi leads UAE Emirates and is probably their only chance of having someone involved in the last 20kms, he was 21st in 2014, but an impressive 7th in 2016, but he decided to do Paris-Nice instead last year. He has been riding well so far this year, with 4th overall in the TDU and 7th in the Abu Dhabi Tour, both times showing his power on the short punchy hills like Willunga, Uraidla and longer climbs like Jebel Hafeet where he finished 8th, ahead of some noted climbers like Costa, Frank, Kreuziger and Pozzovivo. He could be a real dark horse here, as if he can get to the finish with the leaders, he could well have the kick to beat them in the last 500m. 

Romain Bardet is riding Strade this year, first time he has taken part in it, it will be interesting to see how he goes. He won the Classic de l'Ardeche last weekend, a hilly race of 200kms, only the 2nd one-day race he has won in his career, but he has finished 2nd in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Giro Dell'Emilia and 4th in Lombardia. He should be able to cope with the climbing, but will he be able to cope with the mud and stone roads? I'm not that confident.. I wouldn't be surprised to see him DNF... Nathan Haas is probably Katusha's best chance of a good result. 

Daniele Bennati is a resident of Tuscany, so watch out for him too for Movistar. I got all the way as far as here before I even realised that Alejandro Valverde was doing this race, he was hidden away at the bottom of the Movistar names on PCS.. But there he is, and will be riding it seems, despite apparently feeling sick earlier in the week (smokescreen...). Valverde rode this race between 2013 and 2016 and his results are 13th, 3rd, 3rd and 10th, a pretty impressive run. In 2015 he was very aggressive, attacking on the Colle Pinzuto to shed some rivals, but he cracked on the final hill in Sienna when GVA and Stybar rode away from him.

But in 2016, when Sagan put the hammer down on the Colle Pinzuto, Valverde was one-paced and was unable to go with the leaders, and found himself in the group with Benoot, Van Avermaet, Oss, Ulissi and Vakoc. But he was unable to stay with them either on the final pull to the line, Vakoc, GVA, Ulissi and Benoot all dropping him. He will probably be involved in all the action Saturday, but I worry about his chances in the finale again, especially if he was sick during the week. And we also see the return to action after injury of Carlos Betancur, can't see him featuring in this race, odds-on to DNF I think.

And finally, what about Wout Van Aert? The triple World Cyclo-Cross Champion has taken to road racing like a duck to water and was very impressive in the OHN on Saturday, being part of what ultimately became the race-winning break. He looked very much at home, rubbing shoulders with GVA, Stybar and the rest. His final placing of 32nd belies what a great ride he put in, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him go well here too given that 63kms of it will be like riding a cyclo-cross race..

We've already seen how well former Cyclo-Cross World Champ Stybar goes here. The hills are going to be a real challenge for him though, and I'd be looking for something like 80/1 I think on him to make it worthwhile, not the 30/1 he is available at at the moment. 

Conclusion

How I see it going in a nutshell is basically something very similar to last years' race. The early break will get reeled in, possibly with as much as 40-50kms to go as they tackle the Monte Santa Maria, and from then on it is all out war between the favourites on the big climbs. As they attack each other and push the pace, the group will thin out to around 20 riders and the winner will come from this. I expect Sagan, GVA, Vanmarcke, Benoot, Stybar, Kwiatkowski, Durbridge, Dumoulin, Ulissi to be amongst those there. 

Sagan and GVA will stretch things out and it will be a select group of less than ten that could fight out the finish. Stybar will go close again, as will Dumoulin, and possibly Ulissi, Thwaites, Colbrelli and Gilbert, but I think Kwiatkowski ticks all the boxes again and will be very hard to beat on the run-in to Siena. There is 4/1 available on him now though and that is worth a bet I think. Van Avermaet at 7/1 could be a good e/w bet, I think he will be up there in the first three again though, 7/1 is just about acceptable against Kwiat.

There's very little value out there though, so just having a nibble on some outsiders, I have one other outsider who will be a big price, but Laddies and Corals haven't priced him up yet. (that other guy I wanted was Scott Thwaites, he's 150/1 with 365 now, that's worth a small bet).

Recommendations:

2pts win on Michal Kwiatkowski at 4/1 with Corals/Ladbrokes

1pt e/w on Greg Van Avermaet at 7/1 

0.3pts each-way on Diego Ulissi at 25/1 (now 40/1 with 365)

0.25pts each-way on Scott Thwaites at 150/1 with 365

Match Bets:

Thwaites to beat Goncalves, Valverde to beat Felline, Dumoulin to beat Bardet - 3pts at 2/1 with 365

Ulissi to beat Benoot - 2pts at 5/4

Vanmarcke to beat Van Aert - 3pts at 8/11

Kwiatkowski to beat Sagan - 3pts at 10/11 with Will Hill

Gatto to beat Impey - 2pts at 4/5 with Lads

Stybar to beat Gilbert - 2pts at 4/7 with Hills