Stage 2

Stage 2 - Orsonville to Vierzon

Monday, March 5th, 187.5kms

An amazing finish to today's stage, Arnaud Démare did the business for us at a superb price of 14/1, but boy was it close! When they crossed the line it actually looked like Wellens had managed to get up, but in the end he actually finished 4th! Démare and Gorka Izagirre banged in to each other as they crossed the line, and in the first replays it actually looked like Izagirre had won.. but they gave it to Démare in the end, and you can see the margin of victory below was in the millimetres.. 

 

 

Démare and FDJ Groupama deserved the win though, they took control of the race in the closing kilometres and Démare took it upon himself to lead out the sprint in the last 300m, going from a long way out. It was a big surprise to see Izagirre up there in the sprint, and Laporte also, he came very close to landing it at 150/1 for his backers.. Wellens has shown his legs are good, as has Vuillermoz, he'll be one to watch later in the race.

It was not a great day for some though with late crashes causing problems. Ilnur Zakarin lost 5 minutes, David De La Cruz lost 28", Barguil lost 34" and Rui Costa lost over 17 minutes. He crashed not once, but twice and says he's suffering from knee pains, and he'll have to see how he feels tomorrow.. But Tejay Van Garderen fared even worse, what looked like an innocuos crash has taken him out of the race already.

Not a lot to say about this one you would think, it's almost dead straight and dead flat. They run 187.5kms from Orsonville to Vierzon and with barely a speedbump on the road, it should be a stage for the sprinters. But as we saw last year, there is no such thing as a guaranteed sprinters stage in early March in central France, especially if the weather decides to act up. There is a possibility of rain in the afternoon, but most importantly, the winds are light, around 3-6mph, that really shouldn't cause any problems. 

There is one last sting in the tail here too, like on stage 1, the finish is on a reasonably steep uphill road - no flat and easy sprint for the sprinters here either. Once over the bridge with about 800m to go, the road starts to kick up as you can see in the picture below. It could be again why a lot of the sprinters have gone to Tirreno, two stages in and no straight-forward sprints yet.. 

 

 

So a dead flat stage, with lots of sprinters teams present, this one is sure to end in a sprint finish you'd have to think, I'd give it a 95% chance of happening. So we have quite the lineup of sprinters here and not very many chances for them to snatch a win, it is going to be flat out for the last 50kms or so, especially as there is an intermediate sprint just 14kms from the finish, the likes of Alaphilippe might fancy a go at the sprint for bonus seconds. 

So we have Elia Viviani, the best sprinter in the world so far this year, with four stage wins and the overall GC in Dubai, and a very strong QuickStep Floors team as usual. Declercq, Devenyns, Morkov, Lampaert and Sabatini will haul him to the last kilometre near the front, but can he cope with the hill finish? Well he finished 6th on the Hatta Dam recently, although that's a different kind of finish altogether, it showed he has a lot of power at the moment. He's also won on the uphill sprint in the London stage of the TOB, if he can be dragged in to position with 200m to go by his team-mates he'll have a big chance.

He was very prominent in the finale of today's stage, popping up at the front of the peloton, but it just got a bit too tough for him on the cobbled drag to the line, not a lot of sprinters got involved at all. But it showed that he is in good form and the team are looking strong, I think he has a big chance tomorrow at 3/1.

Second best sprinter so far this year is probably Dylan Groenewegen, capping off a great start to his season with an easy win in KBK last Sunday. That was his fourth sprint win of the season, and he also finished 2nd to Viviani in stage 2 in Dubai. He has a lot of explosive power and he is clearly in great form.. his second stage win in the Algarve was on an uphill finish and he has won races over the last few years in all sorts of terrain, uphill finishes, flat sprints etc. He has to be considered a big danger here given the form he's in, and the leadout he'll get, with Timo Roosen, Paul Martens, Tom Leezer and Lars Boom to drag him up that hill. He's 2nd favourite at 7/2, but I think he might have to settle for minor honours tomorrow.

Arnaud Démare was superb today, he was right near the front from a long way out and his team did a super job to control things and bring him to the final straight in the first five like I was hoping they would. And from there, he took control, attacking early, getting swamped a bit, then kicking again. He showed superb power and stamina, which will stand him in good stead for tomorrow's stage too. He is sure to be involved in the sprint again, his team will ensure he is, and he is bound to go very close I think. But I'm just a little worried that today's hard effort might just have taken the edge off him a little bit, that was hard work.. 

Alexander Kristoff has eight top ten finishes so far this season, including stage wins in Oman and Abu Dhabi, his power showing through. Which will have more of an impact here though, his power, or his bulk on an uphill sprint? He might struggle against some of the lighter guys here, he might have to open his sprint early and try to just beast it up the hill and could be passed by others in the last 50m. He was close to the front with about 1500m to go today but faded away and finished 1'06" down in the end. 

John Degenkolb has been in mixed form this year too, with two wins from his first two races of the season in Mallorca, but was well off the pace in the Dubai Tour. He did a little better in the Algarve with a 3rd place behind Groenewegen and Pelluchi in stage 4, and I'm hearing that he is building up his form for a tilt at 'the big one' in April.. He will be pushing hard this week I think, but I'm not sure this finish is for him.. 

André Greipel has been in strange form this season, blowing hot and cold.. He won the opening sprint in the TDU, came nowhere near the sprint in stages 2 and 3 won by Ewan and Viviani, then won the last sprint again. He really struggled in Abu Dhabi though, finishing 11th, 10th and 6th in the first 3 sprints, he never looked comfortable. I think he needs a flatter sprint though, I don't think he'll be troubling the first 3 here. He backed out of today's stage very early, in fact he took a pull at the front with about 10kms to go so he clearly had no intention of contesting the sprint, saving himself for tomorrow. 

Nacer Bouhanni was another who backed out of today's stage very early, he was coasting to the finish a long way from home. But if he was saving himself for tomorrow as he fancies it, then he is another who could have a big chance here as he's light and powerful, two elements that are necessary to win an uphill sprint like this. But he hasn't started the season in great form, no wins yet, a 2nd place in stage 3 of the Dubai Tour is the closest he has come. It is a long time since he won any quality sprint, he always seems to find a few too good or screws up in some way. 

Sam Bennett also has to be considered for a sprint like this too, he has won uphill sprints in the past, such as the two stages of the Bayern Rundfarth he won in 2015. He powered to a stage win on stage 3 here last year on the flat, his first World Tour win. He started the season with a win in the Race Melbourne, then got sick for the TDU and really struggled, and he DNF'ed in the Cadel Evans and KBK last weekend. Has he recovered enough to challenge here? I'm not sure, I'll watch him tomorrow I think rather than back him. 

Matteo Trentin came there today like he was going to be a real contender for the win, but he never really got in a blow and only finished 9th on what was a finish many thought was perfect for him. He should be involved again tomorrow, but I fear he will find three or four too fast for him again. 

Others with chances include Magnus Cort Neilsen, Edward Theuns, Phil Bauhaus, Jempy Drucker, Dan McLay and Ben Swift.. there really is a wealth of sprinting talent here this week. Phil Bauhaus has been in great form this year, with a stage win and a 6th place in Abu Dhabi and a 2nd and 6th in the TDU, he could be a dark horse here if he can get in to a good position, but he's quite a big guy and might struggle against the smaller guys like Viviani and Groenewegen. Other longshots include Carlos Barbero, Christophe Laporte and Thomas Boudat. 

But I really like Viviani's chances here tomorrow, I think the strongest team will get the fastest sprinter in the race in the right position coming in to the last 500m and Sabatini will beast it to 200m to go where Viviani will take over. Démare and Groenewegen will go close too, and Bouhanni and Greipel will be fighting it out for the remaining top 6 places.  

 

Recommendations: 

2pts win on Elia Viviani at 7/2 with Ladbrokes

 

Matchbets

Cort Neilsen to beat Barbero and Groenewegen to beat Bouhanni - 2.5pts at evens with 365

Bennett to beat Bauhaus - 2pts at 4/5

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Stage 3

Stage 3 - Bourges to Châtel-Guyon

Tuesday March 6th, 210kms

What a beast Dylan Groenewegen is! That was a seriously impressive sprint from him today and he must have a lot of the big-name sprinters feeling very nervous now when they see him lining up in the same races. He hit the front a long way out, but no-one could come around him. Our man Viviani got closest to him, and I was waiting for him to come out of his slip-stream and accelerate past him, but he just couldn't.. DG was just too strong. As I suspected, Démare had the edge taken off him after yesterday's hard effort, and he couldn't even podium, finishing 5th. 

Sam Bennett was in a great position hitting the climb, but hit the front far too early and crumbled in the last 100m to finish 11th. Greipel was impressive to take 3rd, beasting a monster gear up the final hill, but he too was one-paced behind Groenewegen. Bauhaus and Teunnisen were impressive for Sunweb in 4th and 6th, two good results in a row for Teunnisen after his 5th yesterday. Kristoff was close in 7th and Degenkolb in 9th, they'll do better on a flat sprint.. if only there was a flat sprint left in the race.. 

So close, but no cigar with Elia, but the matchbet double landed at least to soften the blow, a small 1.5pt loss today. But the GC bets are looking better, Alaphilippe is clearly up for this and stole 3 more seconds today by fighting it out at intermediate sprints. Soler has taken the best young riders jersey, hopefully Movistar won't just settle to protecting that and let him have a real crack at the GC for us. 

Once again another hard stage for the sprinters, with an undulating profile and a very long 210kms in the saddle. The first 100kms are pretty straightforward as they head south to Commentry, but the last 100kms are pretty hilly as they head towards Riom and Chatel Guyon. They go over the Cat 3 Cote de la Bosse after 123kms (2.3kms at 5.4%) and after descending off that they start the Cote Des Boulards with 138km gone, another Cat 3 climb of 4.8kms at 4.8%. 

The next 50kms are pretty flat as they head towards Riom, but with 30kms to go they pass through the finish line and start on a final circuit that takes them up and over the Cote de Charbonnieres, another Cat 3 of 4.6kms at 4.6% for the categorised part of it, but if you look at the profile you'll see that after they pass the finish line they are actually climbing for closer to 11kms by the time they crest the very top of the mountain. Just 2.5kms after passing the KOM, with just 19.5kms to go, they go through the second intermediate sprint point, so if someone has managed to get away on the climb and wins solo, they'll pick up a very useful 13 bonus seconds ahead of the TT. 

They descend down towards the finish until they reach 2.7kms to go, then the road kicks up at 4.3% for around 1400m (below). It's a power drag again though, so some of the stronger sprinters, if they have managed to stay with the leaders until then, will have a chance of hanging on to fight out the finish.

 

There is a roundabout with 1km to go to deal with, so if the peloton hits this in a pretty large group, it will be crucial to be near the front as it will be strung out in to one long line coming out the other side. The finish is pretty flat though, but there is a slight kink to the left with about 300m to go as you can see in the pic below, they come up from the right at the bottom. The road looks pretty smooth, but isn't very wide. 

 

 

You can see the full profile of the last 40kms on Strava thanks to Blake (@BlakeMarquesR) and you can see there are some steep parts on both the Charbonnieres and the final hill before the finish, enough to put the sprinters under real pressure for sure.  https://www.strava.com/routes/12162029

I said a hard stage for the sprinters above, and in actual fact, I give the break a small chance of staying away today to the finish. It is a difficult stage to control, but the one thing weighing against the break succeeding I think will be the weather... It's going to be another wet and cold one, with rain forecast, and more importantly, there's going to be a 9mph cross/head wind coming at them all day, coming from the south-west. It will be more pronounced in the afternoon as they head south-west towards Riom, so it's going to work against any breakaway. And as the race is still so tightly packed together up at the top, the GC men won't want to let any outsiders steal a lead going in to the TT, Démare will want to hang on to his jersey for one more day. 

So, what we might actually see happen is the break is reeled in shortly after they pass through the finish line in Riom and start out on the final circuit, possibly on the lower slopes of the Cote de Charbonnieres. The KOM point is just 22kms from the finish, but also, crucially, just 2kms later they pass through the intermediate sprint point where there are 3 bonus seconds up for grabs. I think we could see a strong group break away near the top of the climb from the sprinter types and it will be GC men and puncheurs/climbers who will fight out the finish. 

I think the likes of Tim Wellens and Julian Alaphilippe will have their eye on this stage for sure, I can see them launching themselves off the front near the top of the climb, not for the KOM points, but the 3" that are available just 2kms later. I think that if a small group of guys like these go off the front, it will be hard to pin them back as the peloton will be all over the road behind and with some strong guys up the road, there might be few teams who will want to chase. And then it's downhill for more or less the next 18kms before the final kick-up with 2700m to go, again a finish profile that will suit the likes of Alaphilippe and Wellens. 

Wellens and Alaphilippe then are two that I think will be heavily involved in the finish here, even if they don't get away and come to the last 3kms as part of the peloton, they have a chance of attacking away to win on that final drag. Alexis Vuillermoz is also a likely candidate to attack on that final climb, and on the run to the finish, we saw him try to win stage 1 with a go on the final hill, but the finish was just too long and hard. This could be more up his street. 

Lillian Calmejane actually climbed the final hill in stage 1 faster than anybody else, recording a time of 3'47", whereas Mike Teunissen who finished 5th on the stage did it in 3'54" and Patrick Konrad, who finished 7th on the stage did it in 3'55". Calmejane must have started way back in the peloton, but charged through the pack as he still only finished 26th on the stage. It shows that he is very strong though and might be a good candidate for this finish also. 

If there is a small group of GC men pull away with the puncheurs then expect the likes of Martin, the two Izagirre's, Poels, Henao, Mollema, Theuns, Gesink, Yates, Soler etc to be there too.. can any of them attack away again in the closing stages, or outsprint the puncheurs mentioned above? They will all be marked too heavily I think by their rivals, I can't see them getting away and staying away. It's more likely to be a less threatening rider for the GC that is let go. 

Tony Gallopin and LL Sanchez are two possibilities for that though, they will like this finish and might just be given a little rope from the peloton. Sanchez is riding really well at the moment and hasn't a bad kick on him in a reduced sprint. Tom Jelte Slagter of old might have fancied it too, but he's a shadow of his former self.

With TVG out of the race now, BMC will be looking to stage wins probably, and we might see Nico Roche on the attack on a finish like this, he might be able to go with the puncheurs.. but he won't win a sprint, he'll have to do it solo. Like Slagter, Simon Gerrans of old would have been all over this finish too, but not any more. Dylan Teuns has been riding ok so far this year, finishing 11th in Dubai thanks to a 12th place on the Hatta Dam, and he finished 8th on stage 1 up the cobbled hill. He won a number of races with tough finishes like this last year, including two stages in the Tour of Norway and one in the Tour of Poland ahead of Sagan and Majka. I like his chances at a big 66/1. 

And what about the sprinters? We've had an uphill finish like this on stage 1 won by Arnaud Démare and he is a winner of Milan San Remo of course, with a similar climb to the Charbonnieres a similar distance from the finish. Ok, he had team-car assistance that day to get back in position, but he showed plenty of times he is able to cope with finishes like this. If he gets over the climb with the GC men, then he would be a strong favourite for the win. So the puncheurs need to shake him off.

I saw today the Directeur Sportif of FDJ Groupama said that they had targets on the first three stages for Démare, and he has won one and gone close in the second.. but he struggled a little at the finish today and I am worried he'll struggle again tomorrow on a very tough stage to back him at just 7/1.

Elia Viviani showed in Dubai that he can climb well at the moment with his 6th place on the Hatta Dam, but that is a very different challenge to what he faces here. What was a more significant result though was his 2nd place in the Cadel Evans race, he proved that day that he can handle hilly courses. He also looked very good on the first stage right up until the last climb, and today he was the fastest outside of Groenewegen in the dash to the line. I think he has a big chance tomorrow of sticking with the leaders though and could be one of very few sprinters left to battle it out at the finish. 

Dylan Groenewegen, André Greipel, Sam Bennett, John Degenkolb - they will struggle to make the final selection, that climb will see to them I think. Nacer Bouhanni is good at getting over these sorts of climbs normally, but interestingly, he was wrapped up to the gills on stage 1 and stayed out of the battle completely from a long way out, and never really got in a blow today, finishing 12th - is he a little ill maybe? Matteo Trentin has to be considered though given the terrain, he'll be able to hang in there I think, is a likely aggressor in the closing stages, and if the other sprinters are shelled he might have it all his own way. 

The bookies don't seem to have a clue either how it will turn out - the prices are all over the place and there is no clear favourite, although Bet365, who are first out as always nearly, seem to be leaning towards a sprint finish, but the sprinters prices are still high, starting at 6/1 for Viviani. There are just so many question-marks about so many here, I think I'll just dip my toe a little but want to stick with Viviani as I think he might be one of the few sprinters to hang in there, and will be the fastest of those that do I think. The worry is that QSF will be all about Alaphilippe tomorrow as he seems to have big designs on the GC here.. so a small interest, win only, is all I'm having on Viv, with two big outsiders in case it does get a bit wild.

 

Recommendations:

1pt win on Elia Viviani at 6/1 with 365

0.3pts e/w on Dylan Teuns at 66/1 with 365

0.2pts e/w on Lilian Calmejane at 66/1 with 365

 

Match Bets

Dylan Teuns to beat Gallopin - 2pts at 11/8

LL Sanchez to beat Dan Martin - 2pts at 8/11

  

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Stage 4

Stage 4 - La Fouillouse to Saint-Etienne

 Wednesday March 7th, 18.4kms ITT

Well LL Sanchez has certainly thrown the cat amongst the pigeons with that ride today, he has jumped up the GC to lead now by 25" from Gorka and the likes of Poels 43" back. A great win for Hivert, he played it very well indeed.. When Sanchez took off with one of his trademark attacks with 18.4kms to go, Hivert was the only one of a pretty select group at the front who went after him. All the others looked at each other, and they were gone. No cooperation behind, no concerted chase from any team meant that they had a comfortable lead hitting the last kilometre.

Groupama FDJ were nowhere to be seen and no-one wanted to drag Démare to the line I guess. So in the end, it wasn't a sprinter who won the stage, but Démare could well have done so had the chase been a bit more organised, as he was first home from the group. It was a superb ride from him as he was in big trouble on the climb of the Charbonnieres, but lucky for him, Poels punctured and team Sky dragged the groups back together in order to get Poels back in to the race.

Mike Teunissen finshed very impressively again, taking 5th, to make it 5th, 6th and 5th in the first three stages. Greipel chased him home, with Cort Neilsen and Trentin also in the top 10. Viviani finished in a group 5 minutes down with Bouhanni and Laporte, Degenkolb and Groenewegen finished over 11 minutes down. Sam Bennett and Phil Bauhaus abandoned, and Kristoff limped home on his own over 17 mins down, he looked quite sick today.  

Julian Alaphilippe was the one who blew things apart on the Charbonnieres, attacking with Wellens, but he'd probably have been better off saving his energy and going for the 3" bonus that came a few kilometres later, as it was, he was cooked and Fuglsang just rolled over the line and took it. 

On to stage 4 then, a short ITT at just 18.4kms, and nothing too difficult to have to deal with. The first kilometre is flat, the next 6.5kms climb gently to Saint Heand at an average of 4% where the time check is. It then runs along a flat section for 1.5kms before it winds its way gently downhill for 4.5kms, then kicks up for 1km at 6.5% and on to a flat run to the finish for the last 4kms. 

There is going to be some rain in the morning, but not too much it seems, and they will have a tail wind on the way up the climb, with a cross-wind coming at them form their right as they head south towards the finish. It's going to be around 9-10mph, so nothing major, but will be something to watch out for nonetheless.  

No real TT specialists here at all really though, so who can take advantage and steal a stage win here? It's a tricky little TT too with the first 6.5kms being a gentle climb and a tough little kicker coming just 4kms from the line. 

This is a big day for Julian Alaphilippe's hopes in this race, he will need to gain some time on some of the climbers ahead of the final weekend. He won the TT up to Mount Brouilly last year, beating the likes of Zakarin by 33", DLC by 45" and Ion Izagirre by 49". If he can repeat that sort of performance then he will go very close to winning. He is clearly in great form at the moment and desperate to gain time in the GC, and his performance in the TT in Abu Dhabi shows that he is in good form on a TT bike this year also. He was 13th that day, 34" behind Dennis, but really only about 20" behind most of the rest of the best. 

His team-mate Yves Lampaert is technically one of the best TTers here too, being the current Belgian TT champion. He also finished 2nd in that competition for the previous two years running and was the U23 TT champ back in 2012 too. Two years ago, in a longer TT of 37kms that had a climb in the early part, he finished 4th, and has a number of other top 10 placings to his name, including 7th in the World's TT in 2016. He didn't do a great TT in the Algarve though just recently, finishing 23rd, that's a bit of a worry. It may be that he is sent out to set markers for Ala who will be setting off much later. 

Ilnur Zakarin is the reigning Russian TT champion, not that he had much to beat, but he did win that by almost a minute. You never know what you're going to get with Zakarin these days, he tends to blow hot and cold, and he did lose over 5 minutes already due to a crash on stage 1. He could either really rip in to this to try to take a stage win as compensation, or he might roll around and see if he can go on the attack in the hillier stages to come. He did finish 4th in the Vuelta TT last year on a similar course over 17kms, if he rides anywhere near that level he could go close. Bet365 haven't even priced him up though......

Lars Boom rode his socks off on Monday to pull the break back in the service of Groenewegen, that was after giving it a go to get in the late break of the day when he got away with Naesen and 5 others. He's going well it seems and he's well able to time trial on a good day. He won the 16km TT in the Tour of Britain last year ahead of some quality time triallists, and has won a surprisingly high number of TTs/Prologues in his career - 14. He has also finished 2nd nine times and 3rd four times.

]A lot of those best results came earlier in his career, around 10 years ago, but he did also finish 2nd in the TT in the Tour of Denmark last year on a hilly course over 19.6kms. He also finished 5th in the TTs in the Algarve and BinckBank Tour behind quality TTers, if he can repeat those performances, on a course and distance that suits him I think, I think he can podium, possibly win this. Interestingly, he rolled home today 3rd last, over 15 minutes down, he was either sick, had a problem of some sort, or more likely, saving every bit of energy he can ahead of this TT. He is a big-looking 33/1, I guess they are worried about the fact that he is just coming back after heart surgery, he said earlier in the week that he was just going to work for the team and try to improve every day.. 

His team-mate LL Sanchez leads the race now and is in a great position to win the overall GC, nine years after he last won Paris Nice. Lulu is well able to time trial - he is four-time Spanish TT champion, and has finished runner up a further four times. He did finish 4th in the Giro 39km hilly TT last year, but he was 44" behind Jungels in 3rd. It's been a long time too though since he was at his best in TTs, over 2 years since his last podium and 6 years since his last win. But he is a strong challenger now for the GC, has a decent lead to cling on to, or add to possibly over some rivals, so he'll probably find some extra watts from somewhere tomorrow. 

David de la Cruz is one of a small number of riders who have a TT win to their name this year, winning over a similar course and distance in the Ruta Del Sol just a few weeks back. He won that day by 6" from Andrey Amador, but was 9" ahead of Soler, 11" ahead of Poels, 14" ahead of Wellens and 24" ahead of LL Sanchez. He was 5th in the hilly 27km TT in the Pais Vasco and 6th in the Mont Brouilly TT here last year, he has to be on the shortlist as well. He has opened the 3/1 favourite, but seeing as his win in the Ruta is the only TT he has ever won, and his next best results after that are 4th, 5th, 6th and 9th, I'm going to give him a skip at that short price. 

Ion Izagirre was Spanish TT champion in 2016 (and 2nd in 2014) and also won short TTs in the Tour de Romandie and Tour de Suisse in 2016. He was 3rd in the Pais Vasco TT last year, just 15" behind Roglic and 19" ahead of David DLC and also finished 4th in TTs in Romandie and TDS again last year too. He has to be considered a danger, the only worry is that he's just coming back from injury which has kept him out of action since the opening TT of the TDF last year, but he seems to be going ok so far this season.

He was going well again today though on the climb, making the front selection when Alaphilippe attacked, at 6/1 I'm going to have a little go on him to make the podium at worst. Gorka was 4th in this TT last year, but his results in TTs are generally pretty poor, I can't see him on the podium, 12/1 is way too short. 

Marc Soler could be a dark horse here for Movistar, he is sure to give it his all in a rare opportunity to lead a team in a prestigious race like this. 5th in the TT in the Ruta, just 9" behind David DLC, he was also 4th in the Spanish TT championships last year. He has yet to even podium in a TT though, but he did manage 3rd in the Spanish U23 TT champs in 2014. I think he will go well, but will be outside the first six. 

Woet Poels - now what can we expect from him in a tumultuous week for Team Sky? He was 5th in that TT in the Ruta a few weeks back, but he is one of the few riders here who have won a TT in his career, winning the Valenciana TT two years ago from Sanchez and Kiryienka. He's generally a 6th to 7th sort of finisher in TTs like this though and I think that's where he'll finish again. He will just want to get a good a time as possible and see how it goes over the weekend in the mountains. 

Bauke Mollema won the TT over 12kms in the Tour of Alberta two years ago and was 2nd to Navardauskas in San Juan last year, so he can pull off a decent TT at times. He only has 9 top ten finishes to his name ever in TTs or Prologues and I think we might be looking at a finish around 10th place again for him in this. Nils Politt is an outsider at a big price I want to have a little bet on though, he finished 2nd, 1st and 2nd in the German U23 TT championships from 2013-2015, and has finished 3rd twice in the last two years in the Elite German TT championships. He is a typical German powerhouse and at 66/1 he could be a dark horse for this.  

Tim Wellens, Sylvain Chavanel, Tony Gallopin, Hugo Houle, Thomas de Gendt, Lawson Craddock and Jesus Herrada - they could all go well too, but I think they will be outside the top 6. It's a very tricky TT to try to figure out, as they are all so average on a TT bike, and that is why we have the prices like they are, no odds-on or short prices like you get when the likes of Dennis, Dumoulin or Froome are riding. There really could be any sort of random top 3 tomorrow, it's very hard to call any of them with confidence. Alaphilippe and Sanchez are going to be fired up, Boom might go close if he's feeling good, Ion Izagirre is the closest thing for me to a likely top 3 finisher. 

 

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Ion Izagirre at 6/1 with Bet365

0.3pts e/w on Nils Politt at 66/1 with 365

0.3pts e/w on Lars Boom at 33/1 with 365

 

Matchbets

Lampaert to beat Edmonson, Alap to beat Gallopin - 3pts on the double at 11/10

Add Yates to beat Henao and Martin to beat Chaves to make it a four-fold - 1pt at 4/1

Sanchez to beat Wellens - 2pts at evens.. Wellens only beat him by 10" in the Ruta, I'm hoping the extra motivation of the yellow jersey, and last out on the road will help him find 11" or more on Wellens

 

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Stage 5

Stage 5 - Salon-de-Provence to Sisteron

Thursday March 8th, 165kms

Poels destroyed everyone today in a show of strength from Sky, who were taking turn leading it, with Van Baarle followed by De La Cruz and Henao and then Poels in the lead. Marc Soler did brilliant for us to take 2nd, a real surprise that was, and it keeps him firmly in the hunt in the GC, he sits 4th, on the same time as Alaphilippe. Alap is also still in the hunt, as they are just 26" off Sanchez's time, this race isn't over yet. It's going to be all out attack over the weekend, but you'd think Sky's power is going to make it difficult for anyone to stop Poels from taking it now..  

There were some good times, and some bad times, with Yates and Chaves pulling off two great rides for Mitchelton-Scott, at the same time as their other squad was taking over the lead of the Tirreno TTT from Sky. Henao also did a good time in 9th, Luis Leon in 7th, to preserve his lead by 15" and Grossschartner in 4th, he was 200/1 for the stage.. The two Izagirre brothers remarkably finished in 6th and 7th, on +27", Ion getting the win by hundreds of a second. And Tim Wellens is still in the hunt thanks to an impressive 8th place, he's 8th overall too and just 42" off of Sanchez. 

I'll hold my hands up and say I got it all wrong with Boom, he's still nowhere near fit enough, that was a mistake.. Politt did ok, he was 2nd for a long time, but slipped back to 22nd once the big guns started coming through. The matchbet double scraped home and Sanchez did indeed find the extra watts in the leader's jersey to beat Wellens so we came out a little ahead on the day. 

After a transfer down to Salon-de-Provence they now actually head north and away from the Mediterannean coast on a 165kms lumpy run to Sisteron. They climb from the gun out of Salon de Provence, but the first 45kms are relatively flat and we could see a big battle to get in the break of the day because there are plenty of KOM points on offer early on here. After 45.5kms they climb the Cat 2 Col du Pointu, 4kms at 5.1%. 

Shortly after they tackle the first Cat 1 climb of the race, the Col de Lagarde-d'Apt, which is 11kms at 6.9%, then it descends for 10kms before climbing again from Saint Christol. Even though they are climbing for the next 20kms, passing through the intermediate sprint after 95.5kms, the categorised part of the climb, the Cat 3 Col du Négron is given as 6kms at just 2.9%. A long 40kms descent takes them to the finish line in Sisteron with 18,5kms to go.

They head north, then west to the foot of the final challenge of the day, the Cote de la Marquise, which is only a Cat 3 of 1.4kms at 6.3%, but it comes with just 12kms to go.. a strong attack here could see a small group get away and stay away to the finish. They then pass through Sisteron, but not the finish line as they head out on the final part of the circuit, passing another intermediate sprint with just 9kms to go. From there it's a pretty flat run to the finish along the tree-lined avenue on the banks of the Durance. 

This looks like it could be a day for the breakaway to succeed, as many are now well and truly out of contention following the TT and with the GC men and their teams looking to keep their powder dry ahead of three tricky stages, especially the last two. It's a short stage at just 165kms, and they will have a tail-wind for the first 106kms as they head north as far as the Col du Négron, helping a break to get away and keep good pace on all the climbs. It will be a cross-wind as they head east off the Col du Négron, but crucially, a tail-wind again for the last 4kms as they head north on that circuit towards the finish line. 

I think the break has a big chance of winning today, so I'm going to focus just on break-away hopefuls and throw a few darts. And just because he's the best sprinter here by a long way, who can cope better with the hills than all the other sprinters, I'm having a small saver on Démare at 11/2 to cover.

Matteo Trentin could well go in the break of the day, he's far enough down not to worry about, and we've seen him on the attack plenty of times on stages like this before. And he gives us a double hope, in that he might still be there at the finish if a reduced peloton sheds some sprinters. He's just 14/1 though, but I'd like to have him onside tomorrow. He finished 37th today, so he didn't potter around, I think he might have been pushing himself and testing the legs ahead of tomorrow. 

Lilian Calmejane was another I had in mind but he did too good a TT today and is too close on the GC now to be let go. Same for Dylan Teuns, Alessandro de Marchi, Tony Gallopin, Roman Kreuziger and Alexis Vuillermoz. 

Dylan Van Baarle has impressed me though this week and has been active, he did an ok TT today and led for a while, but he's 16 minutes down. He might be asked to go up the road today to give Sky a rest and make the other teams do the work. He's not listed by 365, I have asked for him to be added. 

Dries Devenyns has had a good start to the season and he could well be interested in a stage like this.. He's far enough down on the GC for them to worry about, and with the possibility that Viviani may not make the finish again like on stage 2, he might be given some rope. He's 66/1 and I'm having a small interest.  

Tiago Machado has been active this week, he gave it a good go on stage 2 and looked very strong. He'll like a climbing stage like this and might go up the road again. He's 125/1. Jonathan Hivert is another likely candidate, but he's just 20/1 now, I think he was around 66s on Tuesday. 

Thomas de Gendt is over 18 minutes down and he was dead keen to get something moving on Tuesday, but when the break finally formed after something like 70kms, and he was in it, they weren't given any rope at all and were quickly brought back as the group was quite strong. I think he'll try again - but he's just 14/1... is it worth it? Maybe he'll open bigger somewhere else, at the moment we have just Bet365's prices. If not, I might just take it anyway, just to be on him when I think he'll be trying. 

Others who could try are Jasper de Buyst, Omar Fraile, Nico Roche (but I think he'll wait until the weeked to test the legs), Serge Pauwels, Nicolas Edet and a load more guys who have little chance to get anything out of this race after tomorrow. Sylvain Chavanel is another likely candidate for a stage like this, but not for me at 20/1, I'd want 50/1 on him at least. 

But I'm going to throw a few darts at some break candidates, and see how they go, with Démare covering our backs if it does come to a sprint. 

 

Recommendations:

1pt on Arnaud Démare at 11/2

1pt win on Thomas de Gendt at 14/1

0.5pts e/w on Matteo Trentin at 16/1

0.25pts e/w on Dries Devenyns at 66/1

0.25pts e/w on Thiago Machado at 125/1

 

Matchbets

No matchbets interest me tomorrow

 

 

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Stage 6

Stage 6 - Sisteron to Vence

Friday March 9th, 198kms

That was all a bit disappointing today, the break was only four strong, made up of pretty average riders, and guess what? They made it all the way to take the win.. Jerome Cousin took the mickey out of Politt for all of about the last 20kms, asking could be take the KOM points as he wasn't interested in the stage, then sandbagging all the way for the last 10kms.. Politt lost his cool, Cousin didn't care, then jumped away with 100m to go to take Direct Energie's second stage win. 

Interestingly, Arnaud Démare made the final selection, but he couldn't sprint in the end, finishing 20th, whereas André Greipel also made it and sprinted to 3rd, and Kristoff finished 5th. No major changes in the GC, Sanchez had a relatively stress free day. 

A wild and lumpty stage of nearly 200kms that sees them head back south from Sisteron to the coast again and a finish in Vence. There are four Cat 2 climbs and a Cat 1 climb along the way and it looks like a day made for a breakaway again. 

The road drags upwards gently for the first 70kms to Saint Andre Les Alpes, and after 93kms they start the Col de Leuns, which is 6.7kms at 4.6%. The Col Bas is also a Cat 2, but I'm not sure why, it's just 1.7kms at 6.4%, which they crest with 78kms to go. As they descend down towards the coast for the next 60kms, it's not straight downhill, as they first go over an uncategorised climb at Greolieres after 141kms, then the Cat 2 Cote de Cipieres (2.8kms at 5%) after 148kms, then the Cat 2 Cote de Gourdon (3.8kms at 4.3%) after 159kms. 

It then decends for almost 30kms to the foot of the nasty Cote de la Colle Sur Loup which averages almost 10% for 1.9kms. Then a little dip takes them to another uncategorised climb with 6.2kms to go, this averages 5.7% for 3.5kms, it's strange that it isn't categorised as it is tougher than most of the climbs out on the course and tops out with just 3kms to go. From there it's a pretty flat run to the finish, sloping upwards slightly from 1km to 500m to go. 

This is a lot tougher finish than it might look as that final climb is uncategorised, but I've looked at it on google maps and it has some steep parts on it and does drag on for a long time on some narrow, tree-lined roads, perfect for powerful late attacks that might be hard to chase down (below) but the run-in to the line for the last kilometre is almost dead straight and flat, if the sprinters teams have managed to pull it back together. But somehow I doubt they will. 

So how is this one going to pan out then? The break will go of course, but again it's a lottery as to who will be in it, and it's not certain they will make it. It's going to be up to Movistar, Quickstep, Lotto Soudal, Bahrain Merida and Sky to bring it back in to allow their men go for it at the finish to try to pull some time back on Sanchez.. And we could be in for a really exciting last 40kms or so in this stage.. We could see attacks on the Gourdon, with riders trying to get ahead to push on down the descent to try to take a little head-start going in to the last 10kms. 

I think we will see lots of attacks over the closing two climbs, they come in quick succession and there is just 3kms left over the top of the second climb. Julian Alaphilippe is the 5/2 favourite and he has to have a big chance given how he blew the race apart on stage 2, when only Wellens could stay with him. These climbs are much more up his street even than that one, short and punchy, and a lot closer to the finish. I think he will be instrumental in the outcome of this stage, whether he can go solo to the finish, or take some guys with him is the question.. and if he takes some other guys with him, will there be one in there that can beat him? 

Tim Wellens is another obvious pick, he was the only one able to stay with Alap on Monday, but stay with him was all he seemed able to do, he couldn't come around and take a pull. But his earlier season performances would suggest that this finish is perfect for him too, he is going to be watching Alap very closely and will go wherever he goes. 

Luis Leon Sanchez is another who will be watching things very closely, he can't afford Alaphilippe to get away, take some time and the 10" bonus for winning either. He will try to cover everything and he has a strong team here with him to help him out, with Fuglsang in particularly good form.. But he's going to be under a lot of pressure, and I can't see him riding off and winning this stage, there will be other faster finishers even if he does make the final group.

Woet Poels will probably be waiting for this weekend I think to make his move, not sure this sort of finish is really his thing, but he has won LBL with a sprint after a hilly run-in.. David De La Cruz will be staying by his side, but they might send Sergio Luis Henao up the road to stir things up and make Astana chase, he's only 48" down after all. He is very capable on a finish like this to get a gap or go with the likes of Alap.. But he won't outsprint many.. 

Marc Soler needs to get some time back soon too, and he's clearly in superb form after that amazing 2nd place in the TT on Wednesday. This isn't really his sort of finish though I think, he'll be waiting for this weekend too I think. The two Izagirre's will like this finish too though and they can play the 1-2 in the run in, or take turns covering attacks in case one sticks. Dan Martin has been looking prominent and active, and one that will like this finish.. the double ascent could see him attack on the first hill, string it out and take a small group with him, then attack hard again on the second one.. But 11/1 is far too short in my opinion. 

Simon Yates is in a similar mould to Dan Martin, and is looking very strong too, judging by his uncharacteristically good time trial on Wednesday. He powered to the top of the first uphill part of the course in great time and held the lead for a while until the big guns came later. He too could be one that sneaks away near the finish and has a decent kick on him if he comes there with a reduced group. And he is very good at timing his attacks.. he's one of few that stand out to me, and he's 25/1 instead of Martin's 11/1. 

Lilian Calmejane, Jonathan Hivert and Mike Teunissen are all in good form and could be involved, but I think Calmejane and Hivert need to attack earlier, whereas Teunissen will find it a real challenge to hang in there. Alexis Vuillermoz has looked punchy too this week, he's had a few days rest now following his effort on Sunday, he could be ready to attack again on a finish that could suit him. 

There are just so many guys who could win this tomorrow, in so many different ways. I am just going to have an interestin in Yates at 25s and Vuillermoz at 20s and might look to have a bet in-play as well depending on how it's looking. 

 

Recommendations:

0.5pts e/w on Alexis Vuillermoz at 20/1 

0.5pts e/w on Simon Yates at 25/1

 

Matchbets

Martin to beat Teuns and Alaphilippe to beat Wellens - 2pts at 11/10

Add Gorka Izagirre to beat LL Sanchez to make it a treble - 1pt at 2.4/1

 

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Stage 7

Stage 7 - Nice to Valdeblore La Colmiane

Saturday March 10th, 175kms

A crazy stage today in PN with frantic action for all of the last 40kms. Local boy Rudy Molard, who lives in Antibes, not far from the finish, won with a late attack, all the favourites blowing all the work done by their team-mates before that by refusing to chase again. Same sort of scenario we've seen a lot lately, no one wanting to take up a chase of a late attacker, Luis Leon and Hivert being let go a few days ago and Michael Valgren another example in the Omloop. 

It was a very exciting finish, but disastrous for Woet Poels who crashed out on an inoccuous bend with less than 10kms to go, and is now out of the race. Tim Wellens and Alaphilippe finished 2nd and 3rd to take some time off of Sanchez who did remarkably well to finish 4th, when it looked like he was getting dropped with 9kms to go, and on Omar Fraille's bike too. Wellens also took 1 bonus second in the run in, so now sits just 35" behind Sanchez. Alaphilippe is 22" down, with Marc Soler in 3rd on 26", saving his day after being dropped with Henao and Lopez with just 3kms to go. There are 11 riders within 1 minute of the leader though, there's some great racing yet to come in the next two days.

Yates gave us a good run for our money today, attacking frequently in the closing stages, Yates holding a 15" lead with Wellens with just 4kms to go, but they were reeled in with 3kms to go. Vuillermoz was right there in the last 10kms, but did too much too early and couldn't do anything when it mattered most in the closing stages. Alaphilippe was a little disappointing, there was no counter from him when things came back together, instead it was Molard who attacked twice in the last 2400m, the second attempt sticking, to land only his second victory ever.

On to the Queen stage then, and this is a tough, interesting stage on the penultimate day! They zig-zag their way up in to the hills above Nice, taking on a Cat 2 climb as they leave Nice and head up the steep slopes behind the city. The Cote de Gattieres starts after just 5kms and is 5kms long at 4.7% average gradient, but the road continues climbing for the next 16kms more or less, passing through an intermediate sprint after just 18kms. So it could be that QSF and Lotto Soudal keep it in check up until then, as there are 3 seconds up for grabs. 

Or if the GC men are happier saving energy for later, it's a great opportunity for a strong break to get away early and build up a big lead. It flattens out a little for the next 50kms, but as they pass through Gilette, things get a little sharp again.. They climb for the next 30kms, but along the way they pass over the Cote de la Sainte Baume, a Cat 1 climb that is long at 16.7kms, but an easy gradient at just 3.7% average. 

During the 40km descent down to Tournefort they pass over another little climb, the Col Saint Raphael, a Cat 2 climb of 5.8kms at 4.1% after 108kms and the Cat 2 Cote de Vilars sur Var, which is just 2.1kms at 6.5%. They start the final climb to the finish after they pass through Clans, with the road climbing for the last 26kms.

The categorised part of the climb to Valdeblore La Colmiane, a Cat 1 ascent, is 16.2kms long at an average of 6.2%, but as you can see on the right it's a pretty steady, consistent gradient all the way up, reaching a max of only around 8% near the bottom. There are two switchbacks to deal with in the last 3kms, but the last 2kms or so are almost totally straight to the line. 

 

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Stage 8

Stage 8 - Nice to Nice

Sunday March 11th, 110kms

A crazy stage again today, LL Sanchez blew up and slid off the podium down to 17th, and a brilliant Simon Yates leapt on to the podium with just one stage left to go. Yates was brilliant, but so too was Roman Kreuziger, I said last night that he could have a big say in the outcome of the stage, and even the race. It was when Kreuziger put the hammer down with about 4kms to go that the race blew up, Sanchez went out the back door and all of a sudden, everyone was on the rivet.

Yates attacked, Ion Izagirre bridged, but when Yates kicked again, there was no catching him. Ion dug in, Teuns came after him with Wellens and the end result saw Yates take the yellow, with Ion 12" behind, Gorka just a second behind him and Wellens just a second behind him! It's incredibly tight and all could still change on this final run around the hills above Nice. We were unlucky with Gorka finishing 4th, I think he'd have done better if Ion wasn't up the road, he couldn't chase or force the pace. And as for Dan Martin abandoning, well what can we do about that.. At least all the matchbets won, to give us a small profit on the day. 

The final stage, with the race most definitely still up for grabs. It's a similar sort of stage to before, the loop around Nice in to the hills above the town, but the format is slightly different this year, with six hills instead of four and a different finale, with the Col d'Eze not being the final climb of the day like last year. 

None of the hills get very high, with the Cote de Peille the highest at just 635m, but the repetition of climbs, one after the other just about 15kms apart, over a short course of just 110kms in total should make this a very exciting stage, especially if there are small time gaps in the top 10. 

The Cote de Peille comes with approx 50kms to go, and that is where Alberto Contador kicked off the action in the last two runnings, it's a tough test at almost 7% gradient, it could give someone, or a small group a head start heading in to the Col d'Eze and they might not be seen again. The final 28kms will be great though, with first, the ever-present Col d'Eze coming with 28kms to go. It may only be 1.7kms long, but it is a tough little climb that can really sap the energy, averaging 8.5%. 

11kms of a descent and they turn right and back up in to the hills to take on the Col des Quatre Chemins, which starts with just 15kms to go. This is a Cat 2 climb, averaging 5.5kms at 5.5%, so not too difficult, and you might even find that some non-specialist climbers like Gallopin might just be able to hang in there if they have managed to stay with the pace over the previous 35kms. From the top there is a fast and twisty 6km descent back down to Nice and with just that little rise that comes with 1km to go to get over, it's on to the slightly downhill sprint finish on the Promenade des Anglais once again. 

So what happens tomorrow? I haven't a clue.. The race could still be won by any one of the top 4, but actually, in fact, if it really goes crazy, any one of the top 8 could still win, as Henao in 8th is only 57" down. But one thing I think can happen is that Jacob Fuglsang is going to be fired up to get a result tomorrow. As LL Sanchez was faltering today, Astana's team director called back Fuglsang from the front group to look after him, which he was not happy about.

He said after the stage that it became obvious after a while that it was pointless, as Fraille was with him, but it was too late, he had lost all chance of being able to do something. He said that he thought that he could have been up there at the end of the stage if he'd been allowed ride his own race. "So I just tried to go as fast as I could. I'm disappointed. I think I could have been up there - but that's life". So, expect him to be up there tomorrow challenging, now that Sanchez's chance is gone. He's only 9/1, but I want to be with him e/w.

So what else is going to happen? Well Yates is in a great position and in great shape, it's hard to see him being dethroned now, especially with the team riding so well around him, particularly Roman Kreuziger, who has been a huge help for him. The way that he will be beaten though is for someone like Wellens or one of the Izagirre's to take bonus seconds out on the course, and win the stage too. Or someone attacks from far out and gets enough of a lead to taket the stage and the overall. 

Tim Wellens is the most likely to be able to take bonus seconds and the stage win if things stay more or less together, there is an intermediate sprint after just 24kms and another with just 31.5kms to go, I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to keep things together until the first one and let Wellens go for it, and similarly try to keep any break under control so as they catch them before the final intermediate sprint. 

And we must also remember that the stage is only 110kms long, it's a junior race distace, so the race will be wild from the start. But we also need to remember that there are only 114 riders left in the race (maybe even less by tomorrow morning) so it will be hard to control for any team. We could see all-out war from the start of the stage to the finish. 

Can Simon Yates win it? Well he could well do it, he's riding so well, but these climbs aren't as long or as hard and the punchy types like Alaphilippe and Wellens should be a lot more comfortable. It will be hard for him to get away and they just need to ride defensively. Kreuziger will have a big part to play again in his success, but if Kreuziger will be forced to chase from a long way out he might crack late on and leave Yates isolated. Julian Alaphilippe is the favourite for the stage at 11/2, but he really suffered today.. will he have recovered in time for tomorrow? I'm not sure.. it's going to be a wild stage and he looked very tired at the end of today's stage. 

Tim Wellens has a good chance too, he could attack early on, he could attack on the Col d'Eze, or he could even attack on the run in to Nice. But he also had a very tough day today, and I think if he gets away on the Col d'Eze, it won't be by much and he'll be reeled in. But depending on who is in the group with him, he could still win a sprint finish. Or pick up a place at least, he's fighting for a podium spot, even 3rd place will take him up to 2nd place. 

Last year's winner David De La Cruz has been very disappointing this year, he struggled again today and he finished over 2 mins down. Will we see him pull off a repeat of last year? I don't think so, he hasn't looked capable of it. Tony Gallopin looked good today, but he also put in a big effort, I'm not sure he can repeat either. 

Dylan Teuns looked very good today and fought his way to a fine 2nd place on the stage. I thought he might like a stage like this, but he finished 106th here last year.. I don't know if there was a reason for that like a mechanicial or a crash, but also I think he is riding far better this year than last and he has to be up there. Lilian Calmejane struggled from a long way out today, he might recover and try a long-ranger tomorrow, but I've no confidence in him either. 

Marc Soler finished 3rd here last year, but struggled a little also today to lose his podium spot (annoyingly), can he claim it back tomorrow? It's unlikely.. but he is only 38" off the podium, a strong attack and a 10" bonus could bring him right in to the reckoning again. 

And it's hard to see who else could come in to the reckoning, but there is the chance a strong break might actually be let go tomorrow.. Mitchelton Scott will be happy for them to take all the bonus seconds and just ride defensively for Yates, Astana are now out of the GC running, so who'll take up the chasing? AG2R and Lotto Soudal still have a full squad available, so you'd expect them to take it up, but I am hoping Mickael Cherel goes in the break tomorrow and goes all the way.. He trains on these hills regularly and along with Romain Bardet last year they set the fastest time up the climb.. I think he'll fancy it tomorrow and want a bit of him at 50/1. 

Thomas de Gendt could well go in the break again, although the jersey looks pretty secure, but if the Direct Energie pair of Grellier and Cousin go in the break he is sure to mark them closely. Nicholas Edet, Pierre Rolland, Remy Di Gregorio, Dries Devenyns, Nico Roche and Tiago Machado could all go in the break too but hard to see any of them winning it. 

I'm happy to get behind an angry Fuglsang tomorrow with a saver e/w on Wellens too and an outsider in Cherel for an interest. 

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Jacob Fuglsang at 9/1 with Skybet

0.5pts e/w on Tim Wellens at 10/1 with Skybet

0.3pts e/w on Mickael Cherel at 50/1 with Bet365

 

Matchbets

Cherel to beat Barguil - 3pts at 5/6

Gorka to beat Henao and Fuglsang to beat Vuillermoz - 2pts at 11/8

Konrad to beat Teuns - 2pts at evens

 

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