Stage 1

Stage 1 - Condé-sur-Vesgre to Vendôme

Monday, March 7th, 195kms

This is a long stage at 195kms, but it looks pretty certain to be a bunch sprint, as it's almost totally flat all day long. The wide open countryside could cause problems if the wind gets up, and we could see splits and echelons. Another thing that could derail the sprinters would be the complicated finishing circuit the organisers have added to the stage.

With 24kms to go they start on a circuit which takes them through the finish line once and then out on a 14km loop in the countryside west of Vendome. The organisers have thrown up a novelty this year though that could have an influence on the outcome of the stage - a nod to this week's Strade Bianche perhaps, as they have introduced sections of gravel roads. The first section comes with 23kms to go and is 1350m long.

The next section they go over twice and is 750m long, but it's also uphill - the Cat 3 climb of the Côte Chemin Tertre de la Motte. Ordinarily this would barely register as a hill with them, but as it is on the gravel roads it will be more of a challenge. They pass it the first time with 18kms to go, but the final passage will be crucial as it comes just 3.5kms from the finish line and if you are caught in a bad position or suffer a mechanical you may not get back up to the front again. These gravel roads are not just a novelty for P-N, but the ASO too, and who knows, maybe they are thinking of adding them to the TDF for 2017 or something.. 

As you can see in the video clip below, the roads are very narrow and the entrance to the lane is a sharp left hand turn, there could be chaos heading in to it as the peloton is going to be going flat out at that point with just 4kms to go. The surface is rough and bumpy and it wouldn't be surprising to see some riders puncture or crash out of contention. It will also make organising a sprint train more difficult and we may see an unusual result. 

Les coureurs franchiront 2 chemins calcaires. Voici un avant-goût / Riders will pass by 2 limestone tracks.https://t.co/mgoLUgGZTU

— Paris-Nice (@ParisNice) December 17, 2015

 

The last two kilometres are pretty flat, with the last kilometre even a little downhill, but the climax to the stage is quite tricky with lots of bends and roundabouts. If it's the case that the sprinters can stay near the front with their key lead-out men we should see the first battle amongst the sprinters. We could well see the first stage victory for Marcel Kittel, as long as he has negotiated the Chemins safely. Kittel has started the season with a bang for his new team Etixx-QuickStep, winning two stages, the Points jersey and the GC in the Tour of Dubai and two stages in the Volta ao Algarve. He is looking lean and looking mean and his team are one of the best here for leading him out. 

The biggest rival is probably going to be his fellow countryman, the elder statesman of German sprinting, André Greipel. But Greipel is coming off the back of a rib injury suffered from a crash in the Algarve, with it being serious enough to take him out of KBK at the weekend. Maybe in hindsight he was probably delighted not to be riding in it when watching how hard a race it was and with the chance of victory taken away by Stuyven's solo win. In the one stage they did face each other in the Algarve, Kittel comfortably disposed of Greipel and Stuyven (below)

It's hard to see Greipel turn the tables on him, especially as he is coming back from that injury and may back off a little on the chemins, but the Lotto-Soudal team are sure to able to get him in to as good a position as possible to try to win the sprint. He has two sprint wins to his name already this season in the Mallorca races, so he is likely to be challenging for victory here too.

Nacer Bouhanni comes here as the big French hope in the race again, and he too is in ok form, having finished the closest to Alexander Kristoff in the sprint in KBK and winning stage 2 of the Ruta del Sol. He has possibly his strongest leadout here with him with Soupe, Cousin, Simon, Jeanneson and Laporte here to help put him in the right position. He should be close too, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see him hit the dirt when taking too many risks.. 

Alexander Kristoff is on fire again this year and has a bunch of wins under his belt already this season, and probably should have won KBK on Sunday, but they had let Stuyven slip away and stay away. With a little lump to get over near the finish, Katusha and Kristoff are sure to try to push it hard enough to get rid of Kittel, but it's unlikely we will see all of the sprinters getting dropped. On a flat, fast finish I think Kittel and maybe even Greipel and Bouhanni could beat Kristoff though, all depends if Katusha have done enough to push the pace and catch them out of position hitting the last kilometre. 

And there are a number of other top sprinters here too that can get in the mix - Arnaud Démare rode well in KBK to finish 11th and he won a stage in La Méditeranéene two weeks ago too so he has good legs. JJ Lobato is Movistar's sprinter here but he will be lucky to break in to the top 6 here with the talent on show. Giant-Alpecin are missing a top sprinter still, but Roy Curvers will probably be sprinting for them or possibly Koen de Kort. 

Ben Swift for Sky, Josef Reguigui for Dimension Data (in the absence of Cavendish who's at Tirreno-Adriatico) and maybe even Wouter Wippert for Cannondale could get involved too.

One rider that could have been under the radar coming in to this though was Michael Matthews. This will be Bling's first Road Race of the season, and it would have been hard to predict how he'd go. Safe to say after his stunning win in the prologue today that he is in fantastic shape and may well have benefitted from the extra preparation for this and not racing in races like KBK or the middle east. He should be perfectly happy on that little hill, and he has the positioning and handling skills to be in the right place coming off the gravel. I had seen people talk up Bling's GC chances here, that OGE had been making noises about it, I thought they were mad. Maybe not as it turns out.. 

Given the town they depart from, we'll have to have a few 'jokers' and for me, the only other riders that could get involved here are Reguigui for Dimension Data or someone like Terpstra, Gilbert or Slagter taking a flyer off the front.

I think it is a very hard stage to call with confidence and after seeing our main pick and the matchbet acca both go down today by less than a second, it's a really hard stage to try to get back on track with. I think though that Etixx will like this finish and with Terpstra, Boonen, Vandenbergh and Maes looking after Kittel, he should come to the last kilometre in prime position and if so he should comfortably take the sprint. 

On a positive note, Izagirre and Porte both went very well in the prologue, Porte has halved in price to 6/1 in places, he only lost 10" to Matthews and gained 6" on Contador. Izagirre finished a fine 5th place and gained 10" on Contador.

 

Recommendations: 

2pts win on Marcel Kittel at 11/4 with Ladbrokes

Matchbets

Kittel to beat Greipel, Matthews to beat Lobato, Démare to beat Petit - 2pts on the treble at 2/1 with Bet365

 

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Stage 2

Stage 2 - Contres to Commentry

Tuesday March 8th, 214kms

Arnaud Démare took a brilliant stage win for FDJ today coming from a long way back to pip the unlucky Ben Swift on what was a fascinating and exciting stage. Riders and some fans were complaining about the conditions and how gravel roads should not be in the race, but I thought it was a fantastic stage and added real drama to what would have been a boring snoozefest sprint stage otherwise. Geraint Thomas and others came on Twitter after the stage saying how much they enjoyed it, so I think you can probably class it as a success and we'll probably see it in the Tour de France before too long. 

Etixx-QuickStep made a total mess of yet another race today, when the race split in the wind they had six men out of around 40 up front including Kittel, with Kristoff, Greipel, Bouhanni and Démare in the second chasing group. They had a minute lead at one point but instead of pushing it hard at the front, they let Sky do the work and faded in to the background. End result was the peloton now more than doubled in size and it was far harder to control and pace Kittel up the hill he eventually cracked on. Ok, maybe he was struggling already and he told them to just not bother, but their lack of commitment to a powerful break with all the GC favourites was confusing and disappointing. Not only that, he sat up and rolled in behind Greipel, busting a match bet acca by one again. Not a great few days has it. 

Not a lot of commentary to be said about this stage to Commentry, it's a non-descript flat road through open countryside for the first 160kms then a little Cat 3 climb with 164kms gone before they arrive in Commentry with 17kms to go. I say non-descript and flat, but the key words here could be 'open countryside' as the race could be affected by the wind as they wind through open fields and exposed sections of road. If we do get strong cross-winds and some strong teams like Etixx, BMC, Katusha or Tinkoff look to stretch things out we could well see echelons and the peloton split in to smaler groups. 

Once they arrive in to Commentry though they climb up over a little hill and cross the finish line before going off on a little loop of around 11kms before returning back to the finish line and a possible sprint finish. The descent off the final hill ends with only 4kms to go and the last 4kms rise gently to the line - it may be a very gentle rise, but it may affect some sprinters more than others after 214kms, especially if it's been a super-hard day in the wind. There is a tricky approach to the finish though, with a big roundabout to be negotiated around 2.3kms from the line, then another roundabout with about 1800m to go and with about 500m to go they again go right at a roundabout before starting on the finishing straight which kinks left a little with about 100m to go.

So do we give Kittel and Eitxx another shot at just 15/8? He's as short as 5/4 so the bookies clearly aren't taking any chances with him and Etixx. Ordinarily with a 'flat' stage like this you'd have to have him as favourite, but who knows after today. He could get dropped on that Cat 3 climb 50kms from home, he could even get dropped on that uncategorised lump that comes about 10kms from the finish. That climb could be a lot harder than people think, it seems to climb to about 500m in 3 or 4kms, making the gradient around 3%. If the likes of Katusha or Sky push hard they might drop him. 

This looks like a good finish for Kristoff and Katusha, I think they will be going all out to get rid of Kittel and it may even start further out than the climbing in the last 50kms. We saw today that teams aren't afraid to try to blow things up early on in the cross-winds on the open roads, Etixx were alive to it today and looked after Kittel when the splits came. Katusha, Sky, Cannondale, Cofidis, OGE, they all have reasons to try to get rid of him so EQS could be put under pressure early. If they do get rid of him, or even if they tire EQS out, Kristoff should be a prime candidate to take advantage of the situation with the tricky, uphill finish. 

Although it is a bit worrying that he got caught out by the split today, there were plenty others caught out by it too, and they got back in. He was unlucky at the finish with his mechanical, it looked like he damaged his derailleur and that took him out of the sprint. He will be eager to make up for that tomorrow I think. 

Michael Matthews looked a little one-paced in the sprint today, I think it could be the same tomorrow until he gets his race sharpness back. Bouhanni struggled to come past Démare today, not exactly a sprinter in Kittel's class on a fast, flat finish, he will surely do better on a day more suited to him. I maybe did Démare a disservice there, I am a fan of his and have backed him plenty of times to no avail, and that was a superb sprint from him today, he came from a long way back. Can he do it two days running with potentially more of the top sprinters at the front? I'm not sure.

Ben Swift just cannot seem to catch a break, he should have won today and he might have done so had he not done so much work out on the course or had a leadout man that meant he didn't have to hit the front so early. He should be top 10 again but I don't think he'll be top 3. Cannondale came there very strong today at the finish with Slagter and Paddy Bevin trying to lead out Wouter Wippert, but Wippert had got separated from them before the finish. If they can sort the leadout for tomorrow and get Wippert in to a decent position he might be able to nick a podium spot. When Kittel won stage 4 in the Algarve, it was Wippert was right behind him in 2nd place.

Adrien Petit continues his fine run of form for Direct Energie, taking a fine 4th place, but he tied up about 50m from the line and couldn't go with Démare. He could be 5th to 10th again tomorrow. Andé Greipel missed the break today, got back on, but then was dropped again on the run-in to the finish, so it does look like he's not 100% yet after his injury, I can't back him until I see signs he has recovered. 

Kittel could well win tomorrow, he probably will now I have deserted him.. but I think given the closing stages of the race, Kristoff could be in prime position to take advantage of any slip-ups by EQS. Bouhanni and Démare could be challenging for the win again, but I'm going to give Wippert a shot for a small stage to see if he can get closer today in a potentially more 'normal' finish.  

Also, just going back to something I said above - it worries me that EQS didn't push on too much when they were in a prime position to deliver Kittel with a big chance of victory. Did he tell them he wasn't feeling good? Could be be ill? He didn't look great to me when the camera passed him in the last few kilometres, and he was carrying a rain jacket in his back pocket.. why would he carry a rain jacket and not give it to the car or a team-mate unless he knew he was feeling bad, possibly even sick? I'll just leave that one with you to think about.. 

I was impressed with Porte again today though, I know I'm talking up my position here (!) but he was the only BMC rider to make the first split (which may be a bit worrying) but he was right to the fore all day long, at the front going over the gravel roads and finished 12th in the sprint. He's in to 5/1 in general now but there is 8/1 with 888 win only. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Alexander Kristoff at 5/1 with PP

0.5pts each-way on Wouter Wippert at 16/1 with various

  

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Stage 3

Stage 3 - Cosset to Mount Brouilly

 Wednesday February 9th, 165.5km

What do I have to do to catch a break at the moment..! After that frantic and exciting finish to the stage today it looked for a moment like I had gotten away with the each-way on Kristoff, as he finished 4th and Bouhanni would have to be kicked out for that move he pulled on Matthews. But no, because of a 1" gap between Bonifazio and Kristoff, the rule said Bouhanni gets relegated to last in HIS GROUP, which is why he ended up in 3rd and Kristoff remained in 4th. Another result taken away by just 1". Very, very annoying. 

At least it looks like I was right with regards to Kittel, he was never involved at the finish today, despite being odds-on with 10kms to go. He didn't even contest the sprint, and lo and behold he revealed on the EQS website afterwards 'I didn't feel good today'. It's the lack of transparency to the fans that annoys me about this, he clearly is ill yet they haven't said a word. Lots of punters piled in to Kittel today without the full picture, I hope I put some of you off backing him at least, just wish that Kristoff had been able to get up to at least land the each-way. Wippert wasn't far off at all, 8th place, just behind Greipel, who elearly isn't 100% yet, but getting closer. 

And as for those trying to say that Bouhanni was hard done by and should not have been kicked out, you are wrong my ftiends. Bouhanni started in the middle of the road, veered violently to his left as Matthews closed in on him, Matthews had a clear run up the barrier and never veered from his line. He was totally entitled to go up there, Bouhanni was not entitled to first try to block him with his elbow and most definitely wasn't entitled to lean his entire torso in to him to try to stop him. They were probably doing over 50kmph at the time and the fact they didn't come down really hard and cause a mass pile-up was down to a combination of good bike handling (by both parties to be fair, but in particular Matthews as his wheels met the barrier legs), and pure luck - by equally leaning in to each other when they were both almost horizontal they propped each other up long enough to regain some control and stay upright.

Do we start to take Matthews GC Challenge seriously? He now has a nice little buffer over some of the climbers, with a 14" lead over Dumoulin, 19" lead over Izagirre, 27" lead over Porte and Majka and 33" lead over Contador. There's also the probability that he will pick up additional bonus seconds along the way for the rest of the race, either through intermediate sprints or stage finishes, so it might mean that the likes of Contador might have to make up around a minute on the Queen stage or over the last two stages at least. I still think he'll suffer on Saturday's hard Queen stage and we may even see him struggle a little on the climb of Mont Brouilly, but I'll come back to that below. The bookies are dismissing his chances still though, he is 10/1 with PP to win, Thomas has gone favourite with them ahead of Contador for some reason, Dumoulin is 9/2 and Porte is 7/1. 

Things start to get interesting now on the fourth day of racing, with a really challenging looking day ahead of the riders as they head east away from Cusset in the Allier Departement and visit the Loire, Saone et Loire and Rhone regions en-route to Mont Brouilly. The first 50kms are rolling but mostly flat, but then they hit the first of a series of climbs that will start to shake things up. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Five Cat 3 climbs in a row in the space of less than 60kms will tire the legs, as although none of them are overly difficult, averaging between 3-5% and are mostly short, under 3kms, it's the repetition in quick succession that will cause the damege. The Col des Écharmeaux, right in the middle, is 9.5kms long and we could see splits on this one..

With just 51kms to go they crest the Col du Fut d'Avenas and start a long descent for nearly 10kms which takes them on to the closing loop. With 35kms to go they start on the climb of Mont Brouilly for the first time, it's a tough little climb at 7.7% for 3kms, but the gradient doesn't really reflect the difficulty of it  as it starts at 6.1% with 3kms to go, then rises to 7.9% for the next kilometre and the final kilometre averages a nasty 9.2%. The climb steps in steeper parts and easier parts, making it hard to get in to a rhythm, with some really steep parts suiting the better climbers of race - it hits 25% in one section with about 1500m to go. 

Once over the top, they descend quickly, then take in the second intermediate sprint of the day at Quincie en Beaujolais before going over an uncategorised climb with 15kms to go and then start again on the final climb up to the finish at the top of Mont Brouilly again. Check out the video below of part of the climb, you can see where they turn left and the climb goes from that green on the graph on the right to the red, with the road immediately getting steeper. 

Au programme : 2 ascensions avec une arrivée au sommet / On the menu: riders will climb it twice with a top finish.https://t.co/QHRkSPyaUS

— Paris-Nice (@ParisNice) December 17, 2015

It looks like it could be a day made for the breakaway, it will be hard to control a break on this sort of terrain, and if they start the final circuit with 2 minutes or so of an advantage they might just hold on. It's a sort of day for Thomas Voeckler who rediscovered his winning legs at the Tour Cyclists La Provence a few weeks back, winning the first stage in typical Tommy V style, and held on to take the overall GC prize also. The stage had a profile not too dissimilar to this and an uphill finish too which had riders almost coming to a standstill after the finishing line. 

It could also be an important day for the GC of course, you will have to be on your toes to avoid letting a gap form on that final ascent to the line as you could lose valuable seconds before you know it. 

Update, 21:02 - The bookies clearly think this will come down to a GC battle, and the more I think about it, with the way the race has shaped up, I am agreeing with them. Matthews is clearly a big danger now and they will want to put him under severe pressure tomorrow on this finish. With the uncertainty around the weather for the next few days also, it might be a good idea to try to make a move as soon as possible, although rain is forecast for tomorrow and it could be a nasty day in the saddle too. A lot of the riders have been complaining about the cold, but it could be more of the same tomorrow.

They have made Contador favourite for the stage and I can see why, he has looked lively over the last few days and now he is in his territory - 3kms at 8.4%, with parts at up to 25% is right up his street and the kind of climb he danced away on in the Algarve. If he does that here, there aren't many who will be able to stay with him. I guess it all depends if he wants to go full gas already or maybe save it for the queen stage - but he needs to make up lots of time and it may not be enough to leave it to the Madone. If he can't go full gas, but still pushes it hard to strip out some rivals, we could see a small group of 8-10 go to the finish. If that's the case, you'd expect Thomas, Porte, Dumoulin, maybe Simon Yates, Rui Costa, Luis Leon Sanchez, Wilko Kelderman, Alex Vuillermoz and Ion Izagirre to maybe be there.

They are also making Tom-Jelte Slagter short enough for this stage at 7/1 with Bet365, he's double that price with PP. The reason he is so short? Because he won a stage in 2014 here that took in the climb of Mont Brouilly but finished at the bottom of the descent off it in Belleville. I don't think it will be another rendezvous with the podium for Slagter here though, he is not in the same form as back in 2014 and it's a different matter I think to attack on a climb 18kms from the finish versus trying to attack and win on the same climb when it's a summit finish. There will be no one will just let him go here and I can't see him escape the likes of Contador or Porte.

That day that Slagter won in 2014, Geraint Thomas finished 2nd after chasing after and catching him on the climb of Mont Brouilly.  He rode very well on the climb to the Croix de Chambouret, dragging Porte up the hill until Porte took over and took the stage. Will we see him on the attack tomorrow? I think he might sit and wait for now and see how the others are faring - he will mark Contador and Porte and if he gets the chance to attack he will, but I don't think he'll force it, he has a 9" lead over Porte and a 14" lead over Contador, so can afford to sit on wheels for now. He won't mind the cold and the wet too much either. 

Richie Porte should like this climb. The distance is perfect for him, the gradient might be a bit steep, but he is looking strong. Maybe it's on days like this, with gradients like this that he should try to make a move, he can then try to defend it over the weekend with his strong team. He made his move on a similar climb to the Croix de Chambouret last year, if he's feeling good I can see him try the same thing again here. 

Ion Izagirre or Luis Leon Sanchez could attack late out of that group, but I think we might see Dumoulin hanging on tomorrow for dear life on this climb. Michael Matthews too - I said above that he has gone well here before, that stage in 2014 won by Slagter? Matthews finished 4th on the stage, second in the sprint to Kelderman, just 5" behind the winner. That was an easier stage in my mind though and wasn't a summit finish so it was a different situation. I think if the climbers go full gas up here (twice) he will be in trouble. 

Finally, I like the look of Alexis Vuillermoz's chances on this climb. I of course mentioned him from the outset for this race and this was one of the stages I had my eye on for him, I think the finish suits him perfectly and he will maybe be less of a marked man than his team-mate Bardet and they can pull the 1-2 attack here maybe with Bardet going on the easier first half and Vuillermoz going hard with maybe 1km left or less. He has a very strong kick on a climb like this as we saw in the TDF last year, and at 13/1 with Bet365 he's worth a bet I think. 

Tim Wellens could attack from the bottom of the climb, Thomas Voeckler could be in the break of the day (but he doesn't look in great form to me), Rafal Majka could go well here too as could Henao and Simon Yates. Simon Spilak might like the cold and wet conditions and could be big at 80/1 but he looks like he is off form at the moment, he's already 4'39" behind. 

I think Porte, Thomas and Contador could be fighting this one out though, with Contador maybe trying an early dig before settling in to a rhythm. If it comes to the line, Thomas probably has the best sprint, but as it's the first day in the mountains after a couple of really cold and stressful days, I don't think it's a stage to go mad betting on. Especially as there is very little value to be had. I have a sneaking suspicion for Richie Porte though to make it a great day for BMC.

 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Alexis Vuillermoz at 13/1 with Bet365

1pt win on Richie Porte at 9/1 with Bet365 

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Stage 4

Stage 4 - Juliénas to Romans-sur-Isère

Thursday March 10th, 193.5kms

Well, what can you say about today's stage, other than common sense prevailed, but why did it take so long to come to that decision? The conditions did get worse as the day went on, and the organisers, a little like most fans I'd suspect, were just hoping the conditions would improve and they'd get through the worst part, as the finish area on Mont Brouilly didn't seem to be as bad as the earlier passes. One rider who will be cursing his luck that they didn't stop it sooner is our man Alexis Vuillermoz who crashed earlier in the stage and had to abandon. Bad luck for the overall pick, but at least the bookies refunded the losing bets on today's stage as it was voided. They could easily have said that the outcome had been decided by the time the stage was stopped and settled it as a loser, thankfully they didn't. I love this photo by the way, by the fantastic Tim de Waele.

One rider who will be counting his lucky stars tonight that it was abandoned is Michael Matthews. He was dropped earlier in the stage on one of the climbs when Movistar put the power down and caused the peloton to split in two. There were no time gaps given, and shortly after it was announced he had got back in to the peloton, but with two ascents of Mont Brouilly still ahead of them, it was a worrying sign for the race leader. As it stands, he has survived what could have been a really tricky situation for him, one where he could have lost the race, and his rivals have lost out on an opportunity to put time in to him. With tomorrow's stage being a flatish stage, Matthews now has the opportunity to sprint for more time bonuses ahead of the difficult final two stages. 

Paddy Power have strangely now made Tom Dum their 5/2 joint favourite with Thomas, with Contador 4/1 and Matthews now shortening to 13/2 as his chances have drastically improved with today's events. Porte is still right up there at 15/2 but they have pushed Ion Izagirre out to 20/1 even though he is above Thomas, Contador and Porte in the GC. That looks too big to me, he could go well on the Madone and secure a podium spot when Bevin (and maybe Matthews) fall away. 

All I know though is the cancellation meant it was a lot of my time wasted! Anyway, on to stage 4.. 

Two Cat 3 and a Cat 2 climb might make it look like a tough day in the saddle, but they really shouldn't cause too many problems. The first Cat 3 starts after just 15.5kms with the climb of Col de Brouilly (4kms at 4.3%), the third time in two days they'll have ridden over the hills near Brouilly. They then continue south over rolling terrain for 90kms until the next Cat 3 climb which comes with just under half the stage to go (4kms at 4.3% again) and the final climb, the Cat 2 Cote de Saint-Uze comes with just 32.5kms still to ride. 

 

It might be too far from the finish to cause any real damage to most, but 2.8kms at 6.5% might see off the likes of Marcel Kittel, I think, especially if he is ill - a day in the rain on stage 3 might finish him off completely. I think we will see the likes of Michael Matthews, Alexander Kristoff and maybe Démare and Bouhanni at the front though.

The last 5kms are quite technical and tricky though, with a number of roundabouts and tight turns to negotiate (right). With just over 2kms to go they turn right on a roundabout, kink left a little and then two left-hand turns in an almost u-shape turn with just 1200m to go. Then a roundabout to negotiate with just 500m to go before a reasonably flat and straight last 500m.

At first I didn't think the break will make it tomorrow, but after that farce today in the snow, and with three hard stages to come on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, the peloton might be willing to let the break go and have an easy day in the saddle. Maybe we will finally see Thomas Voeckler get up the road on a break, he has not been having a great race so far, but then again it looks like Tommy up to his old tricks - lose time, slip down the GC, go on the attack... He looked good in La Provence, winning solo on a tough day, if he can produce a ride like that, it could be a Tommy V day. At 150/1 he has to be worth a small interest. 

After that it really is a lottery, but it probably makes sense to stick with the French teams, keen to make an impression. Alexis Gougeard was superb in OHN, I had him marked down for this (and backed at 100/1) but then he went in the break of the day today that had 3'30" on the bunch when the race was abandoned. I don't think he will go up the road twice in a row, so I cashed out for a profit as PP had slashed his odds to just 66/1. Thierry Hupond could be the man for Delko Marseille Provence, Anthony Delaplace or Steven Tronet for Fortuneo-Vital Concept, Jerome Cousin or Luis Angel Maté for Cofidis or Quenten Pacher of Delko (he was the first to attack today but got reeled in). 

But if the break gets reeled in before the end, I don't think a late attack will get away on the Cote de Saint Uze either, the likes of Katusha, Cofidis and OGE will be keen to take it to a sprint.  First thing to note about the odds - how on earth is Marcel Kittel evens for this stage? Nearly 3kms at 6.5% just 32kms from the finish? Two or three more hills to get over in the last 25kms, and he obviously not feeling very well?! I don't get it. Yeah, he might make it with the peloton. Yeah, he might be feeling better, yeah, he might actually get a good leadout from Etixx and win the stage. But I'd want 6/1 or bigger on him before I'll back him. 

That leaves the door open for others at decent prices then, seeing as he has taken 50% of the probability out of the odds. Nacer Bouhanni will be desperate for revenge and he should cope ok with the hills to be there at the finish. In the messy finish on Tuesday, he had the most team-mates with him at the finish, all the others were on their own. If he can get a good leadout (still room for improvement) and start his sprint a bit later, he could win this. 

His arch-nemesis now Michael Matthews will also be fighting hard at the finish in this - if he can sneak some more bonus seconds, and maybe even get a time gap like on Tuesday, he could put himself in with a real chance of winning the overall, he just needs more of a buffer I think. We saw how well he was sprinting on Tuesday and he was right up there in 5th on Monday's stage won by Démare. He should be there at the finish and has a big chance of a top 5 finish again. He's 15/2 if you fancy him to keep the dream alive.

André Greipel is getting closer, 7th place on Tuesday's sprint - it was a good sign that he was up there in the top 10 on such a difficult day, but having watched the replay again, he was really struggling to stay there in the last kilometre and tried to get up and kick again with about 150m to go but had nothing.. He is still on the way back, no bet for now.

Arnaud Démare has a good chance of finishing in the top 3 here, he should be right up there in this finish and should negotiate the tricky finish pretty well. Alexander Kristoff likewise, but it was noticeable again on Tuesday just how absent his team were, there were no sign of them in the last kilometre really. He also didn't seem to have much of a kick on him in the sprint on Tuesday, he couldn't get close to the front three. Bonifazio, Swift, Wippert, Van Genechten - they should all be good enough to finish in the top 10, but probably not in the top 3. 

I think this could be between Bouhanni and Matthews again, simply because they both so desperately want it and will be figthing tooth and nail to not let the other win again. Matthews needs the seconds, and has a superb leadout with Daryl Impey and Albasini taking to the front with a few kms to go and Cort being final man. He also seems to be sprinting ok, better than the likes of Greipel and Kristoff. Bouhanni also has a very good leadout and he owes them after blowing a winning opportunity on Tuesday. 

 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Nacer Bouhanni at 9/1 with PP

0.5pts each-way on Michael Matthews at 15/2 with PP

0.15pts each-way on Anthony Delaplace at 100/1 with PP

0.2pts each-way on Thomas Voeckler at 150/1 with PP

0.2pts each-way on Steven Tronet at 80/1 with PP

 

Matchbets

Bouhanni to beat Kristoff - 2pts at 11/10 with 365

Matthews to beat Démare - 3pts at 4/6

Greipel to beat Kittel - 1pt at 6/4 

 

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Stage 5

Stage 5 - Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux to Salon-de-Provence

Friday March 11th, 198kms

So a great day today with it playing out almost exactly as I predicted - Katusha disappeared just as they were needed most by Kristoff and he didn't have the kick at the finish. Cofidis pulled off a fantastic leadout, playing the waiting game and letting Katusha burn all their matches, before Laporte did a massive job to put Bouhanni on Theuns wheel in the last 100m, with Bouhanni easily taking the win. Textbook.

Kittel didn't feature at the finish, shame on you if you backed him today.. Clearly something is amiss, but the profile didn't suit either, so thanks to the bookies for pricing up the rest at inflated odds with him at even money. It meant that Greipel easily landed the matchbet with Kittel at 6/4, he too was right up there without having the extra kick to take the stage. He is getting closer and closer though.. Matthews was just out of the frame in 5th, I'm not too bothered about that though - it meant he missed out on taking any bonus seconds for the GC. It was a clean sweep in the matchbets too with Bouhanni beating Kristoff and Matthews beating an injured Démare. 

Speaking of which, I am not worried about Matthews, as I have been saying for a few days, his tenure in yellow will not last much longer. And then I saw this today which reinforced my opinion on him. Orica-Greenedge team director Laurenzo Lapage told letour.fr that tomorrow's stage 6 to Salon de Provence suited race leader Michael Matthews better than today's: "Of course Michael wants to win a third stage but I believe tomorrow's stage suits him better than today's. Today's is more for pure sprinters. Tomorrow, we climb the Ventoux, but it's 80 km from the finish line so it shouldn't be a problem. Michael is in great shape, he can look for a good GC standing. But winning Paris-Nice? No. Saturday's and Sunday's stages are too hard."

So there you have it - not a lot of confidence there from the director, but it looks like they want to go out with a bang tomorrow with him. I wouldn't be surprised if he tried to win it, then packed his bags to prepare for MSR next Sunday (which I think he will win). I am also opposing Contador for the rest of the week.. 

This is quite a strange stage - it's a long one first at 198kms, as they continue to head south to the Bouches du Rhone and strangely, they go over Mont Ventoux along the way, but not quite all of it! Starting in Saint Paul Trois Chateaux the road winds upwards gently got the first 56kms, taking in the Cat 3 climb of the Col de la Madeleine (not THE Cold de la Madeleine ) a gentle introduction to the main event shortly after. After they pass through Bédoin after 56kms they start on the climb to Chalet Reynard, which is basically Mont Ventoux, but not all the way to the summit. It's still a major challenge to overcome though, being 9.5kms at 9.3% average, and we are sure to see an autobus form early on here that might do well to avoid missing the time limit.

Instead of going all the way to the iconic summit, they turn right instead just as the climb approaches its spectacularly unique lunar landscape and descend for nearly 20kms before starting on an uncategorised climb up to Saint Jean de Sault. This climb looks like it could be a good launch pad for attacks from the better descenders who may have stolen a march on the descent off Mont Ventoux, but with 100kms still left to race it will be a brave bunch of riders who will look to press on. In their favour though might be a lack of organisation for a while in the peloton as team-mates of the favourite get back on, depending on how fast they ascend the climb.

They continue heading south and over the Cat 2 Col du Pointu (5.9kms at 4.1%) and shortly after the sprint point at Lourmarin, which comes with 57kms to go, they turn right and start heading back west. Along the way though they take a detour south to go over the final two Cat 2 climbs in quick succession, the second of which, they Col de Séze averages 7.2% over 1.7kms. From the top there are just 28kms to go on mostly flat roads to the finish in Salon de Provence. It's a tricky finish with a sharp right turn with 1100m to go, then a sharp left with 500m to go and another sharp left with 300m to go before a 300m finishing straight. 

It is a very hard stage to read though as to what will happen, it's likely that we will see a strong group of attacking climbers get away on Mont Ventoux and if there are enough of them (8-10) they could have a chance of staying away to the finish, especially if the favourites decide to wait until the next days stage to the Madone d'Utelle to make their move. Or it could be all out war on the Ventoux with the stronger riders and teams looking to shell as many rivals and their support riders as possible to potentially set up later attacks on the final Cat 2 climbs. 

I'm sticking with what I have said already above, I think Matthews will win this and had to be backed at 6/1 with PP when they opened. I think he is now 9/2 best price, but still think that is worth taking. OGE sound like they have targeted this stage, he may look to extend his lead and then do all he can for as long as he can on Saturday. If it doesn't work out, he either packs his bags and goes home, citing illness, or he rolls around the course Sunday to get the miles in and fulfill obligations. OGE will get him in to a good position coming in to those last three tight bends and Albasini, Impey and Cort should deliver him to a winning position with 300m to go.

Other than that, it's hard to call anyone with confidence.. Bouhanni, Kristoff, Swift or Felline could be involved alright, but it could get really messy over the closing 40kms and we could see multiple attacks - Vanmarcke and Chavanel almost made it today with a cheeky late attack, someone else might succeed tomorrow, there hasn't been a solo victory yet, and there is a tough weekend of racing ahead of them. I honestly couldn't recommend anyone else with a great deal of confidence, maybe De Gendt, Vanmarcke, Gougeard or Gallopin from a late break, but I don't think they'll make it. So just one main bet today then, Bling Matthews to deliver the goods.. 

It's going to be very windy out there today too, we could see splits and echelons today, so the GC men will have to stay on their toes.. 

Recommendations:

1.5pts each-way on Michael Matthews at 6/1 with PP (take the 9/2 now)

 

Matchbets

Vanmarcke to beat Geschke, Matthews to beat Swift - 2pts on the double at 11/10 with Bet365 

 

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Stage 6

Stage 6 - Nice to Madone d'Uttelle

Saturday March 12th, 177kms

This is a typical Nice stage of Paris-Nice, heading in to the mountains above the city on training roads used my many a local pro and even riders domiciled in nearby tax-haven Monaco. This could well be a training route for the likes of Philippe Gilbert or Nicholas Roche who live locally. There is barely a flat kilometre of road in the entire stage and it is going to be a real test of the riders after six days of riding already in their legs.

The stage departs Nice and starts climbing almost from the flag drop as they navigate their way out of the town through the hills that the city backs on to. And the hills are relentless, coming one after the other with barely a chance to get your breath back on the descents in between. After just 5.5kms they start on the Cat 2 Cote de Gattieres (4.5kms at 4.8%) and at the top turn left and head south-west through Vence, then north and then east to go over the Cat 2 Cote de Coursegoules, a long one at 11.5kms, averaging 4.4%. 

Soon after the intermediate sprint point they once again double back to start heading west to take in the Cat 2 Cote de la Cigale (7.3kms at 4.9%) and at the bottom of the short descent they again turn east to come back over the Cat 1 Cote d'Ascros (8.5kms at 5.4%). From the top of the climb there's 70kms left to go, of which they spend the next 35kms descending - starting gently but getting much steeper as they slice through Gilette on the way down. It's quite a tricky and dangerous descent, so if conditions are bad we could see problems for some, others will relish it. 

With 34kms to go they start heading north again towards the finish. Two small but tough Cat 1 climbs in quick succession and they arrive at the foot of the climb to the finish at La Madone d'Utelle. It's a long and hard climb to finish the day with and we could see riders well and truly scattered all over the road by the finish.

It's 15.3kms at an average of 5.7%, but is quite a steady climb for the most part, mostly around 5% average, but kicks up to 9.3% for a kilometre with 6kms to go and also to 10.9% for the last 300m to the line. It's highly likely we will see a solo winner to the stage, but if there's a small group you will need to be able to kick again on steep gradients for the victory. 

You can get an idea of how steady the gradient is on the climb of the Madone d'Utelle and also get an idea of how stunning the backdrop looks on the video below.  

Découvrez le panorama exceptionnel de cette ascension / Take a look at the stunning backdrop of the final climbhttps://t.co/PBRtW5auhk

— Paris-Nice (@ParisNice) December 17, 2015

So will we see Michael Matthews finally crack? Will he fade out of the GC? Hate to say it, as I really like Bling, but I think he’s going to really struggle tomorrow. As Nicolas Roche said today ‘These are my training roads, and I’m not looking forward to this stage as I know how hard the stage is going to be – there’s a lot of climbing’. The team don’t sound all that confident in him though, they’re now talking about Simon Yates as being in with a chance for the GC as he is climbing well and well up the GC also.. Matthews has the green jersey sewn up, and has two stage wins to his name so he must be pretty happy whichever way it turns out, with Milan-San-Remo to think about and recover for.

 

SEE TIRRENO PREVIEW FOR THE REST OF THIS PREVIEW... PROBLEMS WITH MY HOSTING MEANSFOR SOME REASON I CAN'T ADD THE PREVIEW HERE.. I HAVE NO IDEA WHY!!! I can type this and save it, I can't copy and paste the content from Paris-Nice! It's very strange..

WORD OF ADVICE - DON'T EVER USE GODADDY, THEY ARE SHIT!! 

 

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Stage 7

Stage 7 - Nice to Nice

Sunday March 13th, 134kms

Recommendations:

 

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