Stage 2 

Stage 2 - Camaiore to Pomarance

Thursday, March 10th, 207kms

So a good start on the stage front and the GC front with BMC just about beating an impressive Etixx-Quickstep to land the main bet and Tejay getting a nice head start on some of his rivals. He is 9" ahead of Thibaut Pinot and his fantastically impressive FDJ squad, who for a long while looked like they were going to pull off a 500/1 shock. Still 3rd on the day for them was a result that I am sure they are ecstatic about. Tinkoff did a storming ride too to finish 4th, as did IAM in 5th. Astana were about where I expected them to be in 5th, Nibali has shipped 15" to TVG, and Sky were also around where I expected them in 8th, Poels and Kwiatkowski lost 21".

Orica GE did ok to take 9th, Chaves and Yates will be happy enough with a 25" deficit, they are 4" ahead of Valverde, his Movistar team finished 10th. Pozzovivo and Rodriguez didn't have a great start, losing 50 and 59" respectively, but the big losers on the day were Cannondale and Uran - three of the team crashed and Uran had to finish the TT on his road bike - he lost 2'03" and is out of the reckoning already. The first match-bet won, Astana being beaten by FDJ and a really poor ride by DimData / good ride by IAM bust the other one. 

The result sees Tejay chopped in to 3/1 from 4/1, with Valverde going the other way. Pinot has been slashed to just 3/1 at Bet365, a ridiculous price considering he is 9/1 with Paddy Power. Bauke Mollema has been pushed out by them to 16s, not sure why as Trek finished in 7th, just 17" down. Maybe it was the trader taking a view that Mollema seemed to be struggling to hold the last wheel at times in the TT, spurious reason if that's why. If you fancied him pre-race and didn't back him, I can't put you off taking the 16/1 now as I don't think his chances are worse. 

Stage 2 sees them head south along the coast from Camaiore to Pomarance on a long-ish stage to kick things off with. It's 207kms, of which the first half is completely flat almost as they head past Pisa and Livorno. With just over 100kms gone they turn inland at Cecina and start heading in to the hills, taking a U-shaped loop that goes south first, then east, then back up north to the finish in Pomarance.

There's a small little climb to get over first after 118kms at Canneto, but the main climb of the day starts with 140kms gone, with the categorised climb up to Pian di Formo, which tops out at just 629m, so nothing too huge.. Still, with just 57kms to go from the top, it will be ridden hard and fast in an effort to thin out the peloton.  

They then roll down the other side of the climb, taking in a few smaller hills amongst the descending. With 31kms to go they pass through the finishing town of Pomarance and descend down part of the climb that they have to come back up at the end of the stage as they head out on a loop around the town. They descend down as far as Bv Per Cerreto with 15kms to go and then start heading back towards the finish.

The final 10kms are nearly all uphill, as they climb back up to the finish in Pomarance. The final climb is a categorised climb with KOM point up for grabs, but it starts pretty gently around 2%, until they reach the junction at the bottom of the Via Pieve San Piero and take a right turn on to the steepest part of the finishing climb. The next kilometre averages 8%, hitting parts at 16% & 18% before it levels off and even descends for a while with just over 2.5kms to go before a final kick up for the last 100m at 7.8%. 

With the summit of the KOM climb coming just 2.9kms from the finish, we may see two races - one for the points from the KOM jersey hopefuls, who then get swamped by the stage/GC hopefuls charging for the stage victory. Unless of course, whoever took the KOM points had enough of a lead with 3kms to go to hold on. It looks like one for the punchy sorts, of which there are quite a few possible candidates here. It's also quite a tricky and technical finish with lots of twists and turns and bends in the last few kilometres as you can see in the map below. 

This looks like a finish for the Classics men, of which there are several in this race probably for that very reason, they have this stage ticked off on their road books. That climb with 57kms to go will probably see off the pure sprinters like Cavendish and Modolo, but most of the Classics men will probably make it. The next 40kms could be pretty wild with attacks and counter attacks as they descend down to Pomerance, the little kicks up on the way down helping attackers to spring away. The last 10kms are all uphill more or less but really only gets really steep in that part with 3kms to go.. I expect Sagan to attack here and I can see why the bookies have made him one of the favourites, Bet365 and Ladbrokes going clear fav at 7/2, PP joint favourite with Valverde at 9/2. 

I think he will attack, it's his style, but I don't think he will be let go alone. Greg Van Avermaet is in such good form at the moment I think he will be straight on his wheel. Listening to Daniel Oss being interviewed after the TTT today, he seemed genuinely excited about Van Avermaets chances here, he said that they have a big chance of another victory tomorrow with Greg, almost as if the whole team has been plannig and preparing for it. He has beaten Sagan in a head to head finish three times in a row now, the last time on the uphill finish of Omloop, and I think if they are together again tommorrow, Van Avermaet can take him again. He was a bit disappointing at the finish in Strade, but I'll forgive him that run, I think he may have been fatigued after going deep the weekend before in OHN. 

Of course Valverde could be up there with them as well and in a sprint finish he is a big danger. I don't know if Valverde has a punchy enough finish any more to take some of these younger guys, Gilbert beating him in Murcia was an example. Fabian Cancellara showed last weekend that he still has a savage kick on him and he too could be involved. In fact, he could even be an instigator of attacks in the last 3kms. He looked superb in Strade, I didn't expect that kick out of him at the finish to dispose of Stybar. 10/1 with Ladbrokes isn't great though, the 18/1 with PP is far better. 

Edvald Boasson Hagen was superb in Oman, sprinting uphill to great effect. He even out-manouevered and outsprinted Nibali, GVA and Pozzovivo on the uphill finish to stage 2, and again won in a sprint on the hilly, 'Classics' type stage to the Ministry of Tourism, again beating Van Avermaet. He didn't race in the first big Classic races in Belgium or Strade, so either has come off the boil a little or is nicely rested! He will be preparing for Milan San Remo here, Dimension Data have a three-pronged attack for that race, but I actually think he is targeting Paris-Roubaix more this year, so it will be interesting to see how he rides it this week. He's around 7/1 to win this, I'm not sure about that. They poste a really bad time in the TT today though so I'm not sure what we can read in to that from EBH's point of view. He does look well in his new Norwegian Champions jersey though, looks like Dimension Data listened to the fans who had been slating the token effort on the original jersey! 

Two other riders around the same price who should like this sort of finish are Diego Ulissi and Zdenek Stybar, who are both around 14/1. Ulissi has been riding really well lately and was right up at the front for most of the day in Strade Bianche, eventually finishing 7th, just 41" down on Cancellara. 4th on Willunga Hill, 2nd by a millimetre on Stirling, he's also had top 6s in a number of other races this year already. I think he will be right up there and could hang on to the coat-tails of GVA, Sagan and Co. and could sprint to a good placing at the end of it. 

Ulissi is actually from Cecina in Livorno, the point on the map below where the course turns inland away from the sea, only 100kms from the finish. He will be super-motivated for the win here and I wouldn't be surprised if he has been training on this course all winter. At 14/1 with Ladbrokes he has to be backed. 

Stybar should like this finish too, he can go early or he could go late, but the fact that Cancellara outgunned him at the weekend when he looked all over the winner puts me off him. Michal Kwiatkowski of old could do well here, but I don't think he is sharp enough yet. Adam Yates could go well on this finish too, I'm hoping he does of course, the 33/1 might be worth a nibble. Another rider at a decent price is Gianluca Brambilla at 66/1 with PP - he is half that price with Bet365. EQS looked like they wanted to get him in the jersey today, letting him cross the line first, and it also sounded like they really wanted him to win Strade too. He is in great shape and a win puts him in the leader's jersey, but even a good placing could put him in the Maglia Azzura too. 

And there are loads of others of course - Nibali, Mollema, Uran, Chaves, Rodriguez, Benoot, Navardauskas, Poels, Stuyven, Ligthart - it's going to be a fantastic last 60kms I think and a super exciting last 5kms. Watch out also for the likes of Sebastian Reichenbach at 150/1, he was putting out huge watts today in the TTT, and Simon Clarke at 80/1.

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Diego Ulissi at 14/1 with Ladbrokes

0.75pts each-way on Greg Van Avermaet at 15/2 with PP

0.25pts each-way on Gianluca Brambilla at 66/1 with PP

 

Matchbets

Ulissi to beat Valverde - 2pts at 5/4

Simon Clarke to beat Jan Bakelants - 1pt at 6/5

Yates to beat Roglic and Brambilla to beat Poels - 1pt on the double at 5/4, all with Bet365

 

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Map

Finish Map

Stage 3

Stage 3 - Castelnuovo Val di Cecina to Montalto di Castro

Friday, March 11th, 176kms

A superb win by Stybar today, in a frantic finish to the stage like we expected. Ulissi attacked with 3.5kms to go but was marked quickly and when Stybar attacked from the front Ulissi should have gone with him as he was right at the front of the peloton but he left him go as he had spent too much energy attacking just before. If he had waited he might have had more of a chance, attacking was not the better option.. Sagan or Valverde didn't win though as I thought they wouldn't Sagan taking his customary 2nd place with Edvald BH close in 3rd. Simon Clarke, the man I mentioned last in my preview, and one I was very close to backing finished a fine 4th, justifying Carlton Kirby's prognosis on him that he is in great shape and with a new-found freedom at Cannondale. Definitely one to keep an eye on.

Van Avermaet admitted afterwards he hesitated when Stybar went, and shouldn't have, but said he was on the limit anyway like all those around him. Nibali was the one to take up the chase, but he was passed close to the line and finished 5th. Tejay Van Garderen was looked after very well by a strong looking BMC team, and now they've lost the jersey to Etixx they can take it a bit easier tomorrow. Clarke won his matchbet, the matchbet double landed (Brambilla finishing 1 place in front of Poels!) but Valverde finished 5th to Valverde's 12th. All three of my stage picks were in the top 12, finishing 7th, 10th and 12th, so, close, but no cigar. 

We carry on down the coast with stage 3, a 176km run from Castelnuovo Val di Cecina to Montalto di Castro, a day where they spend a lot of it descending or on flat roads. The first half of the stage is mostly downhill but with a few little bumps to get over inside the first 25kms. Shortly after the feed zone at Istia D'Ombrone after 91.9kms they start on the main climb of the day, the categorised climb to Scansano which rises 500m in 18kms, so it's a nice steady climb rather than a back-breaker in any way. A 15kms descent is followed by an uncategorised climb of 9kms at around 3.2% which they crest with 36kms to go.

They then descend for the best part of 35kms as they enter Montalto Di Castro. As they sweep in to the town with 2kms to go the road arcs to their left and descends down in to a dip where they pass the 1km to go flag at what should be very high speed. With 750m to go the road rises up again, averaging 4.4% for 400m, then eases off to around 1.5% for the last 350m to the line after they veer right at the final roundabout.

It's going to be an extremely fast finish and it will be interesting to see if any of the sprinters will be derailed by that little uphill bit with 750m to go or will we just see a flat out sprinters sprint for the last 350m. I would think the latter, the steep bit is quite short, most of the sprinters should be able to deal with that.

Of course, there's no guarantee it will end in a sprint, we could see a strong break of the day make it, but they will have a reasonably strong cross/headwind for most of the day coming at them from their left. The last 10kms as they head south towards the coast will see them have a slight tail/crosswind which might help if they are still away at that stage. It will be a cross/headwind coming from their left hand side on the finishing straight which might mean it will pay to wait and pounce late.

There's not a great deal of top sprinters here, most are at Paris-Nice, not that they have had the best time of it over there. We do have Mark Cavendish here, fresh from the World Championships where he took a fantastic gold in the Madison with Bradley Wiggins. I say fresh, but I'm not sure he's that fresh.. He looked absolutely wrecked at the end of the TTT and he didn't finish with the rest of the team. He was over a minute behind them, and they posted a terrible time so I'm wondering did he spend a night or two celebrating with Brad before jetting out to Italy!

I might be completely wrong of course, and it could have been the plan that he go hard early and then ease up, but then there's the debate as to whether the last few weeks on the track will have helped or hindered him in his prep for a stage like this. It may be that it will take him a few days to get in to it again, and if he is tired, those two hills, if ridden fast, could take a lot of the sting out of his legs which could see him maybe struggle with that bit at 7% inside the last kilometre. I guess I'm looking for excuses to take him on, I think I have convinced myself. And to absolutely confirm my belief on him, he rolled in dead last on the stage today, over 20 minutes down..

And it's not like he's the only sprinter here either, he has two big rivals in two guys who were also at the World's Track Championships in London last week. Fernando Gaviria was in superb form, winning the Omnium and Elia Viviani who also had a good week at the Velodrome, finishing 4th behind Gaviria. Do we oppose them for similar reasons to Cavendish? Well if you look at Gaviria, he finished with the EQS team, who only just lost out by 2" to BMC, he must be in pretty good shape here this week to keep up with guys like Tony Martin in full flight. Winner of a tough stage in La Provence a few weeks ago, he should have no problem with the profile of this stage and he should be right up there at the finish with a strong team to lead him out. He finished 5'57" down today with the main group of the day, not great on the face of it, but more respectable for sure. 

Elia Viviani on the other hand finished nearly 4 minutes behind his Sky team-mates in the TTT, dropped early on in the stage. He too had a good week at the World Track Championships and Sky will be looking to him to try to get something out of this race, as I fear they may leave empty-handed otherwise. I think though that this finish might be a bit too tough for him, the part at 7% could see him out of the picture. Viviani finished 166th today, over 9 minutes down.....

But it is very possible that we see the Classics men fighting this finish out too tomorrow. Stybar knows it will be hard tomorrow with the climbing out on the course, but he says they are going to fight hard to keep the jersey. If he is still up there at the finish he could have a chance again here. One rider that was supposed to be his big rival today was Fabian Cancellara, but he had a shocker today, finishing nearly 4 minutes down, letting his backers down badly. He could be involved in a sprint with an uphill section like this too but that performance today says don't touch him.

You'd have to give Greg Van Avermaet a small chance tomorrow, but a few tired looking performances in a row now from him is making me hesitate. Alejandro Valverde still looks like he is lacking the punch to me. EBH should be right up there, but I think there will be a few quicker than him again. One man that fits the profile perfectly to me though is Peter Sagan. He should cope with the climbing, he has a good team around him and they had Bennati, Bodnar, Gatto and Kreuziger fighting (literally with Bennati) for Sagan today near the finish. I think they will tee him up for this and if he displays a sprint like today no-one will beat him. I can see Tinkoff sweeping through that last left-hander at the front with Sagan taking it up as they come around that right-hander with 350m to go. He opened at 8/1 with Paddy Power and I hit that, he is now biggest price 9/2 and I think that is still worth taking, he is only 5/2 with WillHill, around the price I thought he would be. 

Caleb Ewan could be a big danger as well here, Orica have a strong team that could look after him and get him to the finish and he could be right up there in the last few kilometres. I can't trust him for the win though at just 7/1. Giacomo Nizzolo looks big at 12/1, he is one of those sprinters who can get over the middle-sized climbs like these, but he hasn't shown a great deal of form since coming back from a good stint in Dubai - he didn't finish OHN or KBK and was over 9 minutes down today too. Sacha Modolo at 28/1 and Sam Bennett at 33/1 could both go well too, but I think I'll wait and watch and maybe have a bet in-play on them if they are still in there over the final climbs.

Nibali, Brambilla, Visconti, they could all be involved in the finish with late attacks, but I think it will come down to a real hard-mans sprint and Sagan can turn that 2 in to a 1 tomorrow, but Gaviria could be a real danger and is worth backing too as a saver.. Ramunas Navardauskas is a rider with a fine sprint when you least expect it (on the Champs Elysees for example) and the Cannondale man could pull off a decent result on a course like this too, he is worth a bet at 66/1. 

Recommendations: 

1pt each-way on Peter Sagan at 8/1 with PP (take the 9/2 or bigger if you get it)

1pt win Fernando Gaviria at 7/2 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts each-way on Ramunas Navardauskas at 66/1 with Ladbrokes

Matchbets

Gaviria to beat Ewan, Brambilla to beat Poels & Sagan to beat Nizzolo - 2pts on the treble at 3/1 with Bet365.

  

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Stage 4

Stage 4 - Montalto di Castro to Foligno 

Saturday March 12th, 216kms

Fernando Gaviria and Caleb Ewan struck a blow for the young guard today, showing just why they are regarded as two of the most exciting sprting prospects out there. Gaviria easily landed the win for us at 7/2, stretching away from Ewan up the hill to the finish. Behind them were a gaggle of top-notch sprinters, including Viviani, Sagan, Nizzolo and Modolo. Sagan seemed to be in pole position passing the 1km to go marker, Tinkoff doing exactly what I thought they might with Bennati sweeping down the hill with Sagan in tow. But then Sagan got in to a battle with Zurlo of Lampre-Merida as they fought for Bennati's wheel, Bennati stalled a little with 300m to go and Sagan was swamped by riders coming from behind, and suddenly he was in about 6th or 7th place. When he did get going in the straight he was flying and almost got up to take 3rd for us, it was as close as this below with Viviani.

It was looking good for the matchbet treble as two had won in the top ten, but after waiting an age to see the full result, we found Poels had beaten Brambilla - I think were unlucky with the circumstances, as he probably worked for Gaviria in the last few kms, whereas Poels was making sure he was near the front to avoid any time splits. In hindsight, as I had picked Gaviria to win, I maybe should have foreseen that, but it's one to remember for the next time. I hope you stayed away from Cavendish, he 'inexplicably' did a big turn at the front in the last few kms, seemngly to set up EBH for the sprint, a strange move as he was never going to win that sprint against the riders that were involved. Nothing else to report from the stage, no changes to the GC candidates. 

Stage 4 sees them head inland, away from the Tirennean coast and on to the edge of the Apennines to give them a little taster of what's to come. The first 115kms are slightly uphill, but on rolling roads that take them over several little peaks and troughs as they head towards Perugia. With 114kms gone they start the first categorised climb of the day, the Valico Della Somma which is a long climb at 16kms, but it rises at a sedate 3.3%, so nothing major.

As they descend they pass through Bruna and up to Madonna Della Stella where they join the closing circuit with 70kms to to. They go up and over the Montefalco with 60kms to go, a 5km descent is followed by 19kms of flat roads as they pass through the finish town of Foligno and head south to Trevi for the next categorised climb with 40kms to go. This is a nasty little stinger that winds its way up the hill for 4.1kms with 8 switchbacks and averages 5.2%, hitting 14% max gradients near the top. Coming with just 40kms to go, the pace is sure to be furious up here in an effort to split the peloton and drop the pure sprinters. Movistar, BMC and Etixx are sure to push it hard 

They pass the junction where they joined the circuit earlier in the race and once more back over the Montefalco, this time with just 15kms to go from the top. The Montefalco hits gradients of 16% as they go over a small little rise at the bottom of the climb, then a small descent before the main part of the climb which hits 18% on the way up,  

The last 5kms are pretty flat but there are a number of roundabouts and sharp bends to negotiate, with a sharp left with 1100m to go followed by two right hand bends that arc them on to the last kilometre. There's one last right hand bend with 250m to go, so it's not a very long finishing straight and you'll need to be in a prime position coming through that bend to take the win. 

This a devilishly hard stage to call. The tough climb in the middle of the stage will thin things out and tire the legs. Then the last three climbs in the last 60kms are going to put the sprinters under all sorts of pressure – the two ascents of the Montefalco with its 16-18% gradients and the ascent of the Trevi which averages 5.2% are sure to get rid of all but the hardest of sprinters. Peter Sagan should be ok, and that’s why he is 3/1 favourite with Bet365. He was flying today and made a mess of it at the wrong time, I think there will be far less riders at the finish tomorrow and he shouldn’t have as many problems getting in to a good position. The last kilometre is pretty straight except for a 90 degree right hander with 250m to go, if he leads in to that bend this time, he should win.

Fernando Gaviria will be right on the border of making it over with the leaders, he should make it normally I think, he can climb pretty well and he has a very strong team that will look after him, so that even if he loses 20 seconds or so over the last climb he should be able to get back on in the last 15kms to the line. But he may be pretty fatigued at the end of it, there’s a lot of climbing in the stage and now he got his win today it may affect him tomorrow, the media circus this evening etc might tire him more than necessary. Also, fatigue from the World’s might catch up with him. They are just minor worries though, I think he has a good chance of being there at the finish and if he is he will possibly win it. 7/1 is worth a small win bet I think, if he’s there he should win.

Viviani won’t be there, Caleb Ewan I think will struggle too and won’t get over the Montefalco for the second time. After that, it is wide open, with the likes of Kwiatkowski, Valverde, Van Avermaet all pretty short in the betting as it could turn in to a classics type race if raced really hard over the last 30kms. Van Avermaet is looking a little off the boil, that’s understandable, he has his eyes on bigger prizes in the coming weeks now. Valverde is still lacking something to me to trust him and I don’t want to back Kwiatkowski. Cancellara is not on it this week I think… If anything should happen to Gaviria, Trentin could have a chance on a tough stage like this, as could Brambilla.

It really is so hard to pick a winner here outside of looking to the top two in the betting. Simon Clarke? He had a bad day today after a great day on Thursday. Nibali? Won’t be allowed to get away and won’t win a sprint. Others who could attack late and maybe get away are the likes of Jan Bakelants at 66/1, Pim Ligthart at 125/1, Giovanni Visconti at 150/1 ot one of the Cannondale guys – they are out of the GC race now, so Uran, Navardauskas or Davide Formolo could go on the attack.

If Sagan is out of it for some reason, or if Tinkoff want to play tactics, Oscar Gatto could have a go too late on, he’s 40/1 with PP. Giant-Alpecin had Waeytens, Arndt and Sinkeldam in 7^th, 10^th and 11^th in today’s stage, like as if they didn’t know who should be the sprint leader and they all just had a go. With Waeytens winning the sprint of the three of them, they should get behind him tomorrow because I think he will be there at the finish and he could do well in a reduced sprint. At 80/1 he’s worth a small bet.

Based on what we learned from today though, we could see Brambilla working for Gaviria again tomorrow and may tail off at the end, whereas Poels will be fighting hard to finish near the front so it's worth taking this on the other way around tomorrow I think at odds-against. 

So.. who knows.. it should be a great stage and it will be a fascinating battle between the early break of the day, the peloton, the attackers who want to get away on the last climbs, the puncheurs and the teams of the sprinters who can hang in there to the finish. I think Gaviria has a chance of being there, I’m going win only on him – if he’s there, he wins. Sagan probably won’t get a better chance in this race to land a win and make up for messing up today, and I’ve some outsiders I want to be on too at big prices. 

Apologies too for the lateness of the preview, my hosting company GoDaddy was screwed tonight and I couldn't save the previews.

 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Peter Sagan at 9/2 with PP

1pt win on Fernando Gaviria at 7/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Zico Waeytens at 100/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Ramundas Navardauskas at 66/1 with Bet365

 

Match Bets

Poels to beat Brambilla - 2pts at 6/5

Tejay to beat JC Peraud - 5pts at 4/9

Navardauskas to beat Colbrelli - 2pts at 5/4

Tejay to beat Peraud, Sagan to beat EBH - 2pts win at evens, all with bet365

 

PARIS NICE STAGE 6 PREVIEW - PROBLEMS WITH THE SITE, WON'T LET ME POST IT ON THE PARIS NICE PAGE!

So will we see Michael Matthews finally crack? Will he fade out of the GC? Hate to say it, as I really like Bling, but I think he’s going to really struggle tomorrow. As Nicolas Roche said today ‘These are my training roads, and I’m not looking forward to this stage as I know how hard the stage is going to be – there’s a lot of climbing’. The team don’t sound all that confident in him though, they’re now talking about Simon Yates as being in with a chance for the GC as he is climbing well and well up the GC also.. Matthews has the green jersey sewn up, and has two stage wins to his name so he must be pretty happy whichever way it turns out, with Milan-San-Remo to think about and recover for.

This is not just about the Madone d’Utelle.. This stage starts climbing almost from kilometre 0, with a Cat 2 climb straight away. Then there’s the Cote de Coursegoules, a long climb at 11.5kms, followed not long after by the double ascensions which effectively means they are climbing for 20kms or so and then the nasty climb of the Cote Duranus which peaks with just 20kms to go – it averages 8.4% for 1.6kms – this could be the opportunity for a big push by the team-mates of the GC favourites to get rid of the likes of Matthews before the all-out war on the Madone.

It’s not the hardest climb in the world though, but 15.3kms at 5.7% will kill off a lot of guys and we could see some big time gaps from those dropped early on the climb or on the day even. Porte will have to attack, but will he be able to ride away from a quality field like this? He does it on Willunga, but this is a different ball-game altogether. He did it in PN last year, but he had Geraint Thomas to help him. He’s looking strong though and I think he will be right up there, but I’m not risking backing him in the stage though as I have him for the overall. If he doesn’t do well tomorrow I lose both bets.

I will be taking him on though in the head to head with Contador, I’m hearing rumours of Contador not being at his best, taking him on in a head to head with Porte at 6/4 is a good way to try to profit. Contador is 7/4 favourite for the stage and it’s obvious why really, pre-race favourite to win the race, this is the stage the bookies expected him to win it on, so he’s naturally favourite for it. I did notice today on the Cote de Seze that he was struggling a little bit to go with the attacks that came near the top, he was struggling to hold the wheel a little, if there are big attacks come at him on the Madone, he may lose the wheel again.

Geraint Thomas is 10/1 for the stage, but I can’t see him riding away from these guys and he is vulnerable to a late attack or a faster finisher I think so I’m not backing him He should win his match bet with Dumoulin though. Dumoulin – who knows.. he could do brilliantly, he could win the stage, he could be dropped on the final climb. I just don’t know which way he’ll go so I’m going to leave him as he is a bit short at 14/1. Rafal Majka I don’t think is 100% yet either, I don’t think he’ll be attacking.

Romain Bardet is a big danger I think here, 12/1 with Paddy Power, 9/1 with Bet365, he was out training on this climb a lot over the winter, here he is on the right with Mikael Cherel on one training ride from earlier in the year. He likes this climb and will know it very well. I think he could be capable of a top 3 ride here. Rui Costa, Simon Spilak and Sergio Henao could go well too but I don’t think they have a top 3 in them. Simon Yates might have a big chance here, he seems to be going well as could Tom Jelte Slagter, they’re both around 33/1. Slagter has been active and very visible near the front so he could have a chance if he can hang in there and it comes down to a reduced group sprint.

Movistar have a number of options with Ion Izagirre their best placed rider in 5th place, just 5” behind Dumoulin, potentially the only danger above him in the GC, I can’t see Matthews, Lutsenko or Bevin staying in the top 5. This is his chance tomorrow to win the race and Izagirre will probably have to attack in the last 2-3kms when everyone is on the limit. The question is, will he be able to, or will he be on the limit too? They could play the 1-2 though with the likes of his brother Gorka, Jesus or Jose Herrada or Ruben Fernandez going up the road, either on one of the previous climbs, early on the Madone, or in the last 5 kms..

Either way, they could be used as a device to make the others chase and give Ion an easy ride, and they could be used for him to bridge across to later on. Again though, I’m on at 40/1 for him for the overall, I don’t want to back him for the stage. He will win his match bet with Kelderman at 8/11, even if Kelderman hadn’t crashed today and injured his backside I still think he’d have beaten him.

Luis Leon Sanchez could be a decent priced outsider here, if he is still in there near the finish he could attack away – he is 44” down so if the favourites watch each other and let him go he might not be pulled back.. He could also attack very late up that steep ramp in the last 300m if he’s with a reduced group. At 80/1 he’s worth an interest. His teammate Lieuwe Westra could also go well, he sits just 28” off the lead so a big ride and 10 bonus seconds could see him take the leader’s jersey too.

It should be a really good stage to watch, the race could be fast and furious all day long and we could see some big changes to the top 10. I think Richie Porte could go very well tomorrow, maybe even well enough to win the stage and the race. Ion Izagirre has a good chance also, but I think Romain Bardet is worth backing each-way, he should go well and should make it to the top 3 I think.

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Romain Bardet at 12/1 with PP
0.3pts each-way on Luis Leon Sanchez at 80/1 with PP 
I might add more in-play and trade 'finishing positions' on Bet365 during the race

Matchbets

3pts on Richie Porte to beat Alberto Contador at 11/8
2pts on Izagirre to beat Kelderman at 5/6
Thomas to beat Dumoulin, Bardet to beat Costa - 2pts on the double at 5/4

 

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Stage 5

Stage 5 - Foligno to Monte San Vicino

Sunday February 9th, 178km

A Sunday afternoon treat with the Queen stage of the race with six climbs along the way and a tough summit finish to Monte San Vicino. The climbing starts from the flag drop, with the road rising for a full 28.6kms to Valico del Soglio.. It's a long climb to start with, but a gentle gradient of less than 2%. An 11km descent, a little hill at Triponzo and they start on the long climb to Frontignano at the eastern-most point on the stage. 

From the bottom of the hill at Triponzo to the very top of Frontignano it is 31kms in total, starting gently but getting steeper as it reaches the top. Then a very twisty, dangerous descent takes them straight to the bottom of the next climb to Le Arette, which they crest with 91.2kms gone. Another tricky 21km descent to the feed zone at Pontelatrave, and again, without a kilometre of flat road they start straight on the next categorised climb to Montelago, a 17km climb from the bottom that averages 3.5%, but the last hard section from Serravalle Di Chienti to the top averages a nasty 8.6% for 6.5kms. 

Yet another twisting, dangerous descent takes them to the 25km to go mark. Then an uncategorised climb for 4kms and a descent off it takes them to the foot of the final climb for the day, the 'superior' category Monte San Vicino, as the riders leave Matelica, exit right and head off to never-never land. Metal fans might appreciate that one... 

The climb is 13kms long at an average of 6.6% from the bottom, the official climb for the KOM is 10kms at an average of 7.8%, hitting a max gradient of 12% around 6.5kms to go. The last 3 kms as you can see on the right start steep, averaging 10.8% for 500m, then easing to 5.6% for the next kilometre, 8.8% for 500m, 6.8% for 500m and the last 500m eases back to 4.8%. If you're going to make a big, late move it will probably be in that steep section with 3kms to go, kicking again on the 8.8% section with 1500m to go and holding it to the line. 

This is a really hard finish to a hard stage and we are sure to see some big time gaps at the end of this stage, but it could also see some of the GC men finish close to each other and set up a grand finale in the TT on the final stage again. 

 

Recommendations:

To Come

 

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Stage 6

Stage 6 - Castelraimondo to Cepagatti

Monday March 14th, 210kms

Coming off the back of the Queen stage the riders will have wanted a nice easy day, but they are probably not going to get it as they have a long day in the saddle here with a 210km run from Castelraimondo to Cepagatti. Good for those looking to get the training miles in for Milan-San-Remo, not for those exhausted from the exertions of the day before. 

They leave Castelraimondo and head east in a straight line to the sea, taking in the KOM point at Pollenza about half-way to the coast. It's downhill all the way as far as Civitanova Marche, where they turn right and hug the coastline for 100kms until they reach Montesilvano where they turn right and head inland, skirting around the outskirts of Pescara. They head on to a finishing circuit around Cepagatti of 11kms, which they do twice, taking in the climb up to the finish line in Cepagatti three times in total. 

The descent off the top of the hill in Cepagatti is 6.5kms long, the climb to the finish line is 5kms long, averaging 2.6%, but the first kilometre of the climb averages nearly 6%, and then it eases off to only around 1% for the next 2kms, then kicks up again for the last kilometre at an average of around 3.3%. The road is long and straight from the 2km mark to about 200m to go, then there's a left hand bend and the finishing straight is very short. It is a tough sprint finish and not one for the pure sprinters, you need to be a bit of a puncheur to master this one I think. 

Well we have had plenty of drama in Tirreno over the last two day, Steve Cummings landed a superb stage for Dimension Data on Saturday, mugging his fellow late breakaway companions after playing the old ‘Team orders for Edvald’ card on them. None of the first four finishers in the stage were even listed on the market at Paddy Power, it was an absolutely stinking day for punters. Most of my matchbets and matchbet double came in though to eek a small profit on the day.

The drama carried on in to the evening though with the announcement by the organisers that the crucial queen stage to Monte San Vicino was cancelled, much to the annoyance of the climbers of the race like Nibali and Pinot, whereas Etixx and BMC were quite pleased with the outcome. It has materially changed the race and has denied the climbers and their teams the chance of victory and crucial World Tour Points.

Nibali has been moaning, posting videos of a clear stage finish today, Taylor Phinney basically told him to shut up and stick together. Then Astana said Nibbles might skip the Giro as the three high altitude stages could be cancelled too. Matt Brameier called him a selfish moron and Tony Martin backed him up! Never seen such clashes so openly visible for all to see before, and according to Adam Blythe, BMC, Tinkoff and Astana were all in the same hotel tonight and the topic of conversation was just one man.. You can feel for him, he’s obviously feeling great and wanted to try to blow the race apart on the climb, but that’s life, it’s Italy in March after all.

It has turned what would normally be a ‘transition’ sprinters stage in to an all-out Classics type race tomorrow as now the bonus seconds available on the stage could be crucial to the outcome. And not just the bonus points at the finish, but also at the intermediate sprint that comes with just 23kms from the finish. I fully expect the break of the day to be caught before this as Etixx, BMC and Tinkoff will be fighting for the bonus seconds. In terms of the GC, Bob Jungels is probably just about favourite now, he’s only 11” behind his team-mate and a far better time-triallist. The Luxembourg TT champion may well beat him to take the race, and he may even go for the bonus seconds at the intermediate and let Stybar take his chance at the finish.

Tejay Van Garderen though is still favourite in my mind, he’s 9” behind Stybar, and is time trialling really well as we saw in the Ruta. But it’s going to be really tight. Add in the fact that Sagan and Van Avermaet could take bonus seconds and on a good day could do really well in the TT, they come in to the reckoning also. And Stybar – he still leads, could take bonus seconds tomorrow and could put in a big TT given what’s at stake, he’s a seriously powerful rider who hasn’t been that far behind GVA in recent TTs where they’ve met.

So the stage becomes even more complicated – in my mind, Gaviria is the fastest guy in the race, is great at an uphill finish and should have a seriously powerful team to look after him. But will he be asked to work for Stybar to get him bonus seconds, or will he be asked to sprint? The last 60kms will be brutally fast and hard I think, they are going to turn this in to a Classics-type battle.. I think a lot of sprinters could struggle, the likes of Viviani, Hofland and Bennett may not make it to the finish in the front group. And even then, the section at 5.7% for a kilometre with 5kms to go could thin things out even further; we may see Caleb Ewan slip back, if he is still up front at that point.

I think we may see Gaviria being left to his own devices as the Etixx team look after Stybar and Jungels for most of the stage, but if he can look after himself as they come to the last 6-7kms, and Jungels and Stybar are safe enough, they should turn their focus to winning the stage with Gaviria. Neither Stybar nor Jungels will win the sprint, so better to go for it with Gaviria I think. He is climbing really well and should like this uphill finish like we saw when he won on stage 3.

His biggest rival I think will be Peter Sagan I think. He messed up a little in the finale of stage 2 after Bennati and the Tinkoff team did a great job to set him up. He finished really fast and maybe would have at least taken second if he had come out of the last bend in a better position. Where he has an advantage is in how tough this finale could be and how strong Tinkoff look for a finish like this. With Gatto, Bodnar, Blythe and Bennati pulling him in to position in the last kilometre. It’s a much more straightforward finish though tomorrow and I think he will be delivered with a great chance with 200m to go. He is a backable each-way price at 5/1 with PP, he will probably make the top 3.

I’m ruling Ewan out, it might be crazy, but I think he might struggle with this hectic and brutal finish. Viviani might not be there, not interested in backing him. Bennett is off form, he probably won’t be there, and I’m not sure Hofland will be up there either. Modolo might be there but he just didn’t have the speed to compete with the best on stage 3, finishing 8th.

One rider I do like the look of at 18/1 though is Giacomo Nizzolo. He finished 6th in the sprint in stage 3 despite coming in to the race on the back of a mild illness, and I think after two more days to recover, including today’s unscheduled rest day he could be in far better condition. He likes an uphill finish and he should be able to cope with the challenging closing stages. Looked after by the likes of Cancellara, Mollema and Stuyven now that Mollema’s chances of winning are probably gone with the cancellation of the mountain stage, this should be a big focus for them now. I think he has a good chance at a decent price. (scratch all that, he's out with illness. At least he pulled out before the stage and not during so we'll get stakes back..)

Greg Van Avermaet could have a chance on a tough finish like this, and he is fighting for bonus seconds for the overall win also, but I think it might not be hard enough for him at the finish. He might be tempted to try attacking on the 5.7% part, but risks blowing up and losing time, the gamble might seem worth it to him in an all-or-nothing effort. EBH, Stybar and Debuscherre could go close too but I don’t think they’ll be winning. With Nizzolo out, Van Avermaet could be worth a bet at 25/1..

And that’s it – I think a break won’t make it, the closing stages of this race are too important for the overall for teams like BMC, Etixx and Tinkoff to let a break get away, and it’s unlikely a late break gets away either, unless there’s a sudden stall in the peloton as they all wait for someone to take up the pulling in to the last 3-4kms.. but I can’t see that happening, I think it will be flat out all the way to the finish. If Etixx can set up Gaviria, get him on Sagan’s wheel with 300m to go, he should outsprint him. If Gaviria isn’t in a great position or isn’t even at the front of the race at that point, Sagan should have a big chance of the win here, he’ll find a little bit more speed now with his sleek, shaved legs. Nizzolo could make the podium too. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Fernando Gaviria at 9/4 with Ladbrokes

1pt each-way on Peter Sagan at 5/1 with PP

0.5pts each-way on Giacomo Nizzolo at 18/1 with PP **** Scratch that, Nizzolo has pulled out with illness, if you've backed him already you'll get your stakes back. 

With Nizzolo out and with Van Avermaet desperate for bonus seconds, he was worth a small bet at 25/1 with PP - 0.4pts each-way

Matchbets

Nizzolo to beat Modolo – 2pts at evens with Bet365 **** Nizzolo out with illness. 

Stybar to beat Jungels – 4pts at 8/15

Ewan to beat Viviani – 3.5pts at 4/7

  

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Stage 7

Stage 7 - San Benedetto del Tronto to San Benedetto del Tronto

Tuesday March 15th, 10kms

So a great result today on the stage, not so great a result for Tejay's GC hopes. A very late notification from Trek that Nizzolo had indeed succmbed to his illness meant we dodged a bullet with him not starting rather than starting and abandoning and blowing our match bet and each-way bet. Instead, I quickly jumped on Greg Van Avermaet as he was the only rider really I had highlighted that had a chance on this finish. 25/1 each-way bet done just before the off, lovely. At one point it looked like I would possibly have the 1-2-3 as Gaviria was one of three Etixx men out of eight that got away after Sagan tried again to pull his old trick he tried in the TDF last year of riding on after the intermediate sprint with 23kms to go. That time, Greipel and John Degenkolb laughed at his cheeky antics and nothing came of it, this time three EQS and Three Tinkoff, along with GVA and Kwiatkowski pressed on hard after getting a small gap fighting out the bonus seconds. 

They drove on, but Gaviria was under a lot of pressure, and was stupidly taking turns instead of doing what GVA did and sat at the back, playing the 'I'm riding for Tejay' card. In the end, EQS blew yet another great opportunity, with Stybar in 4th their best placed finisher. Up ahead, Greg Van Avermaet brilliantly beat Peter Sagan for the third time this year in a head-to-head sprint, to land the 1-2 for us and a very nice profit. Add in two out of two in the matchbets front (Nizzolo matchbet refunded) and it was a very good day indeed. Enough to make the demise of Tejay, thanks to being held up by a crash 5kms from home, feel just a little less painful.

What it means though is that Greg Van Avermaet now goes in to the final TT of Tirreno Adriatico in the most unlikely of positions, leading by 7" from Zdenek Stybar and 8" from Peter Sagan. Bob Jungels sits just 21" behind and as the best time triallist out of the three has a big chance to win this race too.  

The race finishes with a very similar time trial to the one that opened the race, but this time it's an individual TT over 10kms. Like the first TTT, it is on the coast, it is an out and back course and it is dead flat. It's one for the pure power men again, but as it's only 10kms you could see sprinter-types like Matthews in Paris-Nice sneak in to the picture. There will be several battles going on on this stage, with the stage up for grabs, and possibly the entire top 10 placings.  

So it all comes down to this - after the decision to cancel the stage to Monte San Vicino the day before the stage and the fantastic attacking riding by Van Avermaet and Sagan, it all boils down to who is fastest against the clock over 10kms on a flat course along the sea-front. 

I had started writing this stage preview earlier today, long before the end of the stage, and I was comparing Tejay Van Garderen's record over recent TTs to Bob Jungels, as I thought it would be a showdown between them for the GC. As it turns out, Tejay's unfortunate incident in the crash, just 5kms from the finish, means that he is now out of the running and it is down to a battle between four riders instead for the GC, with a separate race going on at the same time for the stage win. 

Looking at the stage win first, PP have come out with win-only odds for now and they have Fabian Cancellara as their 7/4 favourite, with Tony Martin at 5/2, Kiryienka and Dowsett at 12/1, Bob Jungels at 14/1 and Taylor Phinney at 16/1. Tejay and EBH are 18/1 and it goes 33/1 and bigger from Kwiatkowski and Bodnar onwards. 

Cancellara has started to look very strong and again today he took a pull at the front when they were trying to reel in Sagan and Co. and cut the deficit from 22" to 12" in no time. It may be that he was saving himself a little for tomorrow though as he did peel off soon after that and when Stuyven and Mollema made a push later on to try to bridge he wasn't there. Would make sense though, there wasn't much to gain from burning himself out, but a good hard interval for a while, without going too much in to the red will have done the legs good ahead of the TT.

How's he done in TTs this year? Well he has entered one individual TT, and won it. That was in the Algarve on a flat course over 18kms, he beat Tony Martin by 5" that day and Alex Dowsett by 40".. And in this TT last year? Well he scorched around the course at an average speed of 52.7kmph, beating Malori by 4", Kiryienka by 9" and Bodnar by 16". Greg Van Avermaet was 27" back in 11th place, EBH was just 1" and 1 place better than him. I think Cancellara looks in better shape this year than this time last year and looks a great bet at 6/4 now to take it. Others have opened at 4/5 and 8/11 and I'd have him closer to odds on too, not 6/4. 

One of the reasons is that one of his biggest rivals, Vasil Kiryienka doesn't look in great shape to me at the moment, he was way down in 16th place in the TT in the Ruta del Sol over 21kms, beaten by the likes of Valverde and Sammy Sanchez. He was 3rd in Valenciana over 16kms, beating Jungels by 6", but that was a hilly TT, something he is better at than a flat 10km TT. Can he make up 9" on a flying Cancellara since last year? I don't think so. 

2nd favourite is Tony Martin, and he has been anonymous this week, we've barely heard a mention of him while the rest of the Etixx team have been making a big splash. Better at longer distances, Martin lost to Cancellara by 5" in the Algarve, but did take a 2nd place in the TTT at the start of this race, but that is a seriously powerful squad, how much of it was down to him is hard to say. I don't think he'll be beating Fabs. 

Boasson Hagen ranges from 7/1 to 12/1 and he too has been riding very well this year, and of course, crushed the opposition in the TT in the Tour of Qatar, beating Van Emden by 25" and GVA by 32". That too was over an 11km flat course, in strong winds, so he should go well here too. I think though he has come off the boil a little lately and looks like he is timing his prep for Paris-Roubaix. I think he is a little short at 12/1 but should do a good top 10. 

Kwiatkowski and Jungels are both 14/1 or so, both could do good times, but I can't see either of them winning it. Maciej Bodnar could go close at a far bigger price, but as most bookies are offering terrible each-way options (either none at all at PP, 'top 3 betting' at Bet 365 or just 1/3 the odds for the first two at Ladbrokes) then it's hard to find an angle with him. 4/1 for the top 3 when he is 33/1 to win isn't great. Taylor Phinney might put in a big ride, but I think a top 10 for him would be seen as progress, although he was going well in the TTT to help them to victory. Van Garderen will have the stuffing knocked out of him after breaking a spoke today in that crash and losing 1'20". A terrible way to take him out of the GC reckoning, he had a big chance if he had stayed in the main bunch today. 

Alex Dowsett has tweeted tonight that he has been waiting all week for the TT, he must be feeling pretty good - he is 50/1 to win it, 11/2 to finish in the top 3 and it might be worth a small bet on him at 11/2 although the value isn't great, he sounds up for it. As well as Peter Sagan is going at the moment, he's not going to trouble the top 3.

So Cancellara wins, Martin might chase him home and Jungels could raise his game enough with what is at stake to land a top 3, but he could be challenged by Bodnar, Dowsett and EBH too. I think GVA will do enough to hold on to his lead, I think he is going well enough at the moment to hold off Jungels by the 21" needed, but just in case Jungels does pull off a monster ride, he's worth a small saver at 8/1 with Ladbrokes to win the GC.

Starting times of all riders here. First rider (Svein Tuft) is off at 12:35 CET. Greg Van Avermaet goes at 15:46 CET, Cancellara at 14:30 CET.

 

Recommendations:

4pts win on Fabian Cancellara at 7/4 with PP (take the 6/4 now)

0.5pts on Alex Dowsett to finish in the top 3 at 11/2 with Bet365

0.5pts on Jungels to win the GC at 8/1 with Ladbrokes 

 

Matchbets

Cancellara to beat Martin, Dowsett to beat Navardauskas and Oliviera to beat Anderson - 2pts on the treble at 2/1 with Bet365

 

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