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Published on Saturday, 27 February 2016 11:13

Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne

Sunday 27th February 2016, 203kms

After the cobbles and the hellingen of the Omloop, the sprinters get their chance to shine on the second day of this opening weekend double-header with the flatter parcours of Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne. Last year Mark Cavendish just got the better of Alexander Kristoff in a bunch sprint, but with no Dimension Data in the race, Cav will not be here to try to defend his title and take a record equalling third win, Tom Boonen being the only man to have won the race three times.

Many riders take part in both races, some working for team-mates Saturday who repay the favour on the Sunday and vice-versa. Some riders just partake in one, the sprinters don't particularly like Saturday's race, others just do Saturday and don't make it to Sunday's race if, either by choice or because they may have hit the dirt on Saturday. A lot of the roads used in the Omloop on Saturday (and in the Tour of Flanders) are used again on Sunday, such  as the Kruisberg and the Oude Kwaremont, but the big difference is that the final Hellingen, the Nokereberg, comes 50km from the finish, meaning it ends up in a sprint finish more often than not. 

In 2013 the race was lost to the cold weather but the year before Mark Cavendish won a group sprint from Hutarovich with Arnaud Demare in 4th place. In 2011 Hutarovich was once again 2nd, this time to Sky's Chris Sutton, with Greipel in 3rd and Farrar in 4th. Boonen also took the win in 2009 and 2007 to hold the record for the most wins, can he make it 4 this year after blowing it last year?

The Route

It's quite a familiar route but 6kms longer than last years race at 203kms - the difference coming from a new finish to the race this year, two laps of a 15.3kms circuit around Kuurne. After leaving Kuurne and Harelbeke in the west, they traverse eastwards across Flanders, but despite the name, they don't actually reach Bruxelles, but as they reach the outskirts of the city they loop around and head back to the lumpy southern part of the course around Ronse, where they take in the Kruisberg, the Cote du Trieu and the Oude Kwaremont. They then head north and over the Kluisberg, the Tiegemberg-Vossenhol, the Hostraat and Nokereberg before heading back to the finish in Kuurne. 

The Kwaremont and the Holstraat are two of the toughest sections of the race and they can offer the opportunity for solo attacks, or like in 2014, the chance to rip the race apart if windy to reduce it to a small group finish. The Nokerberg comes with just 50kms to go, but as it's only 350m long, there's not a lot of opportunity to do too much damage.

The forecast is for it to be completely dry and cold on Sunday, but windy! 18mph winds blowing from the north-east should cause some problems as it will be coming at them from their left for the outward part of the race and from their right for most of the way back. It could see echelons and splits if the likes of Katusha or Lotto-Soudal look to get rid of some sprinters to make life easier for their men. They arrive in to Kuurne with 30kms to go and pass the finish line for the first time before embarking on two laps of 15kms circuit going out to Kortrijk and Harelbeke before coming back to Kuurne and finishing with a straight and flat road, where we are likely to see a sprint finish.

Contenders

This race is now one of the few chances in the northern Classics for the sprinters, like the Scheldenprijs between Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. The race doesn't always end in a sprint though, for example, in 2010, the race was blown to pieces, with a trio of Bobbie Traksel, Rick Flens and Ian Stannard staying away and Traksel took the win from Flens with Stannard 2" back. Behind them it was carnage with only 26 riders finishing, scattered minutes apart on the road. 

But the most likely scenario given the parcours, with the hard southern section around the Kwaremont a full 100km from the finish and the last real obstacle of the Nokereberg coming 50kms from the finish is that we are going to see the race come back together in time for a sprint finish in Kuurne again. 

Alexander Kristoff - 2nd here last year, just pipped by Cavendish after being maybe left at the front a little too early in the wind, Cav easily came around him in the last 50m. He's also entered in Omloop on Saturday to get in some practice for the Ronde in a month's time but on paper he should have a far better chance of success here. He had been installed the 5/4 favourite with PP when they opened their market first, but is bigger now elsewhere, reaching 2/1 with Skybet, but that has been beaten back down to 13/8.

As short as that is, he does look the most likely winner. Katusha, as usual, have a strong team here for him, with Lagutin, Tsatevich, Bystrom, Haller, Isaychev and Morkov probably as last lead-out man. A lot of guys were on his team here last year too. I fully expect to see him being delivered by a strong Red train to the front of the race with 500m to go and then his immense power will take over. He could possibly grind it out all the way to the line as he has done so often before, but maybe with Omloop in his legs he might be vulnerable to a late, fast finisher popping out from behind him.

Second favourite at 4/1 with Paddy Power was André Greipel and that was a poor price considering he broke a rib in the Volta a Algarve just last week. He said at the time he will start KBK, but has since then succumbed to the injury and will not be starting.

Peter Sagan is 7/1 and we'll get an idea I think by Saturday afternoon whether that price was worth taking early or not. The vibes I've been getting this week is that Sagan isn't too bothered about the Omloop, that he has bigger targets in a month's time. I'm not sure he'll be winning KBK either. You'd have to think that in a flat out sprint like this he will find a few faster than him, and the way he could win it I think is if a selection is made out on the course somewhere and the group is reduced greatly coming to the finish. Yes, of course he's a very good sprinter and will almost certainly be in the front ranks hitting the 500m to go sign, but I just fear he will finish outside the first 3 so the 7/1 doesn't appeal to me at the moment. 

Elia Viviani has started the season well with a 1st and a 2nd in Dubai and a 2nd, 3rd and 4th in San Luis, with Sagan finishing one place ahead of him in stage 2 but Viviani beating him by two places in stage 7, when Viviani was beaten by his Italian team-mate Mareczko. He was unlucky last year in KBK, he had the legs to get in a strong looking group of 20 that detached themselves from the front on the Oude Kwaremont, along with Stannard, but when it all come back together with 34kms to go Team Sky worked hard to look after him in the sprint. They lost some positions in the last few bends, but Luke Rowe did a great job as last lead-out man to put Viviani on Cavendish's wheel with 200m to go. There was a lot of wind coming from the right that day though, as is evident from how they all sprinted pinned against the left hand barrier, and Viviani found it hard to come around Cav and Kristoff and had to settle for 3rd. 

When Greipel was still in the book at 4/1 Viviani offered some value I thought at 9/1 with PP, I think Skycould well put him in the right position this year again for a crack at Kristoff. Like Cavendish last year, I think if Viviani can get on Kristoff's wheel in the last 150m, he could well use his faster sprinting speed to come around him at the last minute to take the victory. We may even see some of the Sky guys hold back on Saturday to go all in for Viviani on Sunday, Stannard might be let do his own thing though!

Caleb Ewan swept all before him in the Aussie races at the start of the year, winning the People's Choice Classic, two stages of the TDU and a stage in the Herald Sun Tour. He even finished 2nd in the HST prologue, outlining his superb power output again. There has been a lot of 'yeah, but who has he beaten? Wait until he's up against the best sprinters in a big race in Europe before we'll know if he's the real deal' type of comments, maybe justifiably so. He has of course won a sprint stage of the Vuelta last yeat though, beating Degenkolb and Sagan, but here's another chance to show what he can do 'against the big boys'. 

OGE have a really strong team here with him, with Hayman, Docker, Cort, Bewley, Juul-Jensen, Keukeleire and Edmonson, He has never raced a senior race over the cobbles though and that worries me a little, he did ride the Ronde Van Vlaanderen Beloften ('espoirs') in 2014 though and didn't finish it. He does have a super low and aerodynamic sprinting position like Cavendish which will help with that finish if it's windy, but at 14/1, I'm going to pass on him this time and wait to see how he does for future reference. 

Nacer Bouhanni is also 14/1 and although they have riders taking part in OHN on Saturday, you would think it will be all in for Bouhanni on Sunday in this race, with the exception maybe of Sénéchal who might have some freedom. He's got a decent squad to help him here, including Vanbilsen, Ahlstrand, Sénéchal, Bozic and Cousin and Laporte. He has been doing well so far this season, taking 2nd in his first race of the year in the Trofeo Playa de Palma, a 2nd and a 4th in Valenciana, 5th in Almeria, then 6th on the first stage in Ruta del Sol before finally landing his first win of the season in the next stage of the Ruta. 18th last year though in this race, he may as well have been 88th for all the good 18th place did him. I think we could be looking  at a similar result this year from BouBou. 

Dylan Greoenewegen burst on to the scene this season with a fine win over Nacer Bouhanni in third stage of Volta Valenciana just a few weeks back, the Lotto-Jumbo NL man bursting through the middle and easily holding off BouBou. It was the stage when it looked like Boonen might win it but he backed off in the sprint when the gap on the right he was coming through was squeezed a little by Bouhanni and Groenewegen drifting right (above). Groenewegen is still only 22 but looks like he could be a sprinting star of the future, he's already got a number of decent wins under his belt, including the Belgian Cycling Classic last September over a similar distance and parcours to this one.

He also won the Ronde Van Vlaanderen Beloften ('hopefuls') in 2014, ahead of Tiesj Benoot, Owain Doull and Mike Teunnisen, a pretty impressive result for a sprinter. He's only around 18/1 for this which looks very short given the opposition, but the team are up for it and he could well be in the frame. It's a difficult finish for a young, inexperienced rider with the wind forcing them in to a tight line on the left side of the road, but he's got a strong team with him and if they can drop him on Kristoff's wheel with 300m to go he could go close. 

Jens Debuscherre, Arnaud Démare, Matteo Pelucchi and Giacomo Nizzolo and Boonen are all around 20-25/1 and could come close, but I think 5th or worse for them. Sam Bennett is 33/1, but unless his team can do a better job of delivering him towards the front of the race in the last kilometre I don't think he'll be in the first three. Roy Jans looks a big price at 50/1 with PP seeing as how he has been sprinting so well recently, but one rider at a big price I have my eye on is Zico Waeytens for Giant-Alpecin.

Waeytens comes here as the main sprinter for G-A with the absence of Degenkolb. I got word last weekend that he would be sprinting in Oman, but couldn't get a price for him and left it.. he only sprinted to second place.. I was a bit annoyed to say the least! He comes from Ledegem just west of Kortijk and only 15kms from Kuurne, he knows these roads like the back of his hand. He is in good shape as his 2nd in the Oman sprint last Sunday showed, he almost got to Kristoff. He had some good top ten results last year too, including a 2nd place in the Tour of California stage 5, just behind Cavendish but ahead of Sagan, Drucker and Van Poppel. I've been told he is really looking forward to this race, the course is made for him and he is the protected rider for GA. He may not win it, but if he can get as close to Kristoff as he did in Oman he could land the place money at a big price of 100/1. I backed him Thursday at 100/1 with Bet365, he's 80s there now but 100/1 with Ladbrokes.

Bert Van Lerberghe, Edward Theuns, Raymond Kreder and Oscar Gatto are four others at big prices who could go well, Van Lerberghe has been sprinting well and Oscar Gatto of course won a stage in the Ruta Del Sol just last week. Kreder also did well in the Ruta, sprinting to 3rd place for us at 40/1, but I can't see him hitting a podium on Sunday. Leigh Howard should be the man for IAM Cycling and he too is in great form this year, winning the Clasica de Almeria, albeit over the short 21kms it was reduced to, and also won the bunch sprint behind Peter Kennaugh in the Cadel Evans race in Australia. There's hushed talk about him and his chances here on Sunday, he seems to be in great form and is one of the protected riders for IAM. He's got Devenyns, Naesen, Haussler and Kluge to look after him, he could also go close at a big 200/1 with PP, he's just 100/1 with Ladbrokes.  

Of course, it may not end up being a sprint finish, the wind could help split things up. It has happened plenty of times in the past, but it looks like it's going to be dry so that should probably mean we'll see it come back together in the last 50kms, even if they split things up on the Kwaremont or around that area. Kristoff looks the most likely winer given the form he's in, and we'll get a better idea of his chances come Saturday afternoon. Elia Viviani and Groenewegen could be close and hopefully Waeytens can get involved in the sprint and land a podium spot too. 

UPDATE: 16:00 What a race we had again today, Omloop showing us once again what a great race it is. The action started on the Taienberg again, as expected, but what wasn't expected was that it would be Luke Rowe towing Greg Van Avermaet up the hill and away from the rest. Benoot gave chase and Sagan came after them too, until they ultimately formed a lead group of five with Gougeard riding a monumental race to hang in there after being in the break all day. 

The break were almost caught, holding just an 18" gap with just 2kms left, but they held on and Greg Van Avermaet finally got revenge for missing out to Stannard two years ago by taking a great win in the sprint from Sagan. Benoot did the business to land the place money at least for us, and I called it in running as well that Sagan wouldn't win and layed out 4pts to win 2pts at 2/1 in play on Sagan to win. 

For Etixx-QuickStep, it was an unmitigated disaster again for them, missing out on the break of the day on 'Their' hill of the Taienberg and not having a single rider in the top ten on the day. They never looked like they were urgent enough, nor powerful enough to pull the break back and their case wasn't helped by Tony Martin crashing on a bend. Oliver Naesen tried at least, he was in a chasing group who went after the GVA group for a while, but they were swallowed up, and Marco Marcato was part of the peloton that chased them home. It was a hard day for BMC otherwise though with several riders coming down in a crash including Gilbert and Drucker, it was even worse for OGE with several of their riders crashing, including Hayman and Keukeleire had a very untimely puncture and really slow wheel change. 

Thoughts on tomorrow after all that? Kristoff had a day to forget it seems, he said after that someone rammed in to his wheel and destroyed it, he had to wait for the team car and then he got stuck behind a crash and his day was over.. He should be a bit fresher than maybe he could have been now though as he just cruised home over the last 40kms or so.

Viviani looked to be in the main peloton towards the finish, but it doesn't look like it was actually him now, he DNF'ed. Saving energy for tomorrow maybe! No word in Sky's team report as to why he DNF'ed but there were quite a few didn't finish. I'm still happy with my bet.

OGE may have lost some power for tomorrow, still not interested in Ewan. One thing to bear in mind though is that EQS will be smarting after today's result, Lefevre will not be happy with that abysmal performance - I can see them look to blow the race apart and maybe try to get a solo victory, or at the worst get Boonen a reduced group to sprint from. Sagan will be tired after today, can't have him winning a sprint when he couldn't even beat Van Avermaet today. No change to my bets but may take on some match bets later when they are out. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Elia Viviani at 9/1 with PP, take the 8/1 with Ladbrokes

0.5pts each-way on Dylan Groenewegen at 20/1 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts each-way on Zico Waeytens at 100/1 with Ladbrokes

0.15pts each-way on Leigh Howard at 200/1 with PP

Match Bets

Zico Waeytens to beat Lerberghe 4pts win at 11/8 

Waeytens to beat Van Lerberghe, Demare to beat Ciolek and Kristoff to beat Ewan - 2pts on the treble at 3/1 with Bet365.  

This season I am also going to be naming my top ten riders to watch in some races, for the many of you out there that like playing Fantasy Cycling games. Fantasy games such as the Zweeler cycling games where you can play for cash prizes.

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Here's my ten to watch for the Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne

1 Alexander Kristoff

2 Dylan Groenewegen

3 Elia Viviani

4 Zico Waeytens

5 Peter Sagan

6 Tom Boonen

7 Nacer Bouhanni

8 Arnaud Demare

9 Leigh Howard

10 Bert Van Lerberghe

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