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Published on Saturday, 24 February 2018 21:13

Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne

Sunday 25th Feb 2018, 200kms

After the cobbles and the hellingen of the Omloop, the sprinters supposedly get their chance to shine on the second day of this weekend's double-header with the flatter parcours of Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne. 

I say 'supposedly', because the last two editions of the race have been won by breaks - Jasper Stuyven powered away from them all in 2016 to record a stunning solo victory and last year, an elite group with Peter Sagan, Stuyven, Bennot, Rowe and Trentin held off the chasing pack. 

Mark Cavendish took an ill-fated trip to the Abu Dhabi race again this year, he was the last sprinter to win this race in 2015, and also won it in 2012 in a sprint. In between Tom Boonen won the sprint from Moreno Hofland and Sep Vanmarcke in 2014, but 2013's race was cancelled because of the weather. 

Many riders take part in both races, some working for team-mates Saturday who repay the favour on the Sunday and vice-versa. Some riders just partake in one, the sprinters don't particularly like the Omloop, others just do the Omloop and don't make it to Sunday's race as they may have come to grief on Saturday!

A lot of the roads used in the old Omloop (and in the Tour of Flanders) are used again on Sunday, such  as the Kruisberg and the Oude Kwaremont, but the big difference is that the final Hellingen, the Nokereberg, comes with a full 50km to go, meaning there is plenty of time to make sure it ends up in a sprint finish. 

Last year's race ebbed and flowed in the cross-winds, but with 30kms to go a group of about 30 riders held 28" on the peloton, and significantly the group contained GVA, Sagan, Stuyven, Naesen and a number of very strong guys. Greg Van Avermaet put the hammer down at the front of the group as they headed out of town and suddenly the group started to pull away again as the pace lifted. Stuyven attacked, Démare stupidly chased him down instead of saving his legs and with 26kms to go Sagan bridged across to Stuyven with Trentin on his wheel.

Tiesj Benoot bridged shortly after, followed by Luke Rowe, whereas GVA, Démare and Naesen were unable to bridge the gap and suddenly the gap to the peloton was over a minute with 20kms to go and the race was over. The Quintet worked brilliantly together, marshalled by Sagan, and with 1.5kms to go they still held a 40" gap. Trentin panicked first as the chasers started to close up and attacked with 800m to go, he was reeled in by Rowe and Sagan just went for it with over 200m to go, quickly got a gap and was not for catching. 

Behind him Stuyven took 2nd from Rowe, with Arnaud Démare easily winning the sprint for 6th. It was surprising to see GVA not being able to bridge the gap when Rowe did, but I guess he had put a lot in to winning the day before and can be forgiven. Démare was a bit stupid, when he was clearly the fastest sprinter at the finish, maybe he'll learn from that and sit in a bit more this year. 

It's a wide-open contest this year though, with no clear, strong favourite like GVA is for the Omloop. It is interesting to see though that the 'sprinters' cobbled race has only attracted a handful of sprinters this year, most of the best sprinters in the world are over in Abu Dhabi.. It could mean that we see a break win again, as there are less sprinters teams here to control it, but it also means that those teams with sprinters know that they have a big chance of a win if they can get their man to the last kilometre at the front of the race.

Omloop Recap

Well that was a weird race today, and a bit of a disaster betting wise, with a complete whitewash, something that thankfully doesn't happen too often, but of course can happen on such a weird day as today. Valgren was 66/1 for today and basically, as far as I am concerned was handed the victory by the ineptitude and reluctance of the others in the break to chase after him. Trentin went to the front, he looked like he was going to chase and then just pulled over.

As Astana had two men up there and none of them were going to chase, and as there were was sprinters like Colbrelli and Trentin in there, none of them wanted to chase either. So in the space of about 5 seconds, Valgren was gone, never to be seen again. The break made such a mess of it, they were swamped on the finish line and only some like Colbrelli managed to finish in the top 10, with Wisniowski and Vanmarcke managing to escape in time to take 2nd and 3rd. Wisniowski was over 200/1, Vanmarcke was 12/1 3rd favourite. 

GVA looked impressive on the Wolvenberg I think it was, blasting past Wellens who had attacked earlier, but then he sort of just faded back in to being like all the rest of them, with no real attacks on the Muur or Bosberg. Wellens was very disappointing, as was Stuyven, Terpstra, Benoot, Gilbert and Lampaert. Stybar attacked repeatedly all day, wasting energy, but when it came to the crunch, he had nothing left. Gaviria finished over 9 minutes down, and almost half the field DNF'ed. 

The Route

It's basically the same as last years race, but 600m shorter at 200.1kms, with the same finish to the race, two laps of a 15.3kms circuit around Kuurne. There is a new first hill in the race when they take on the Wolvenberg, a climb often used in the Ronde and other Flanders races. It comes after just 32kms and then it's a further 35kms until they reach the next hill, so even though it is tough at 7.9% for 708m, it is far too far out to have any impact on the race. 

After that they traverse eastwards across Flanders. Despite the name, they don't actually reach Bruxelles, but as they reach the outskirts of the city near Voorde they loop around and head back towards the lumpy southern part of the course around Ronse, going over the Onkerzeleberg (2.1kms at 3%) after 67.5kms, the La Houppe (1.9kms at 4.8%) after 82.8kms and the Kanarieberg (1km at 7.7%) after 88.3kms 

In to Ronse and out of Ronse up the nasty Kruisberg (1km at 7.7%) after 95kms, they continue heading west over the Hotond (2.7kms at 3.1%) after 97kms, the Cote du Trieu (1.3kms at 7%) after 105kms and on to the Oude Kwaremont. The Kwaremont needs no introductions of course, being one of the most famous cobbled sections in all of bike racing, a destroyer of many hopes in the finale of the Ronde. There are still 85kms to go from this point though, so although the pressure will be on at this stage, there is still a long way to go. 

They carry on west to cross the Kluisberg (1.1kms at 6%)  and shortly after turn north to start heading back towards the finishing circuit, taking on the Tiegemberg-Vossenhol with 62kms to go (750m at 5%). 4kms later it's the Holstraat (1km at 5.2%) and with 50kms to go they pass the final Helingen of the day, the Nokereberg (350m at 5.7%). It may be only 350m long, but it's going to hurt at this point in the race, especially if some of the favourites start attacking each other to try to get away from the sprinters teams. 

With 30.4kms to go they start on the final 15km circuit, which they do twice. There are no major challenges on the final circuit, but the wind can play a part and stronger riders can ride away and cause splits, like the front five did last year.  Like last year though, the sprint finish will be in to a head-wind, so the sprinters will have to time it right as it is a wide-open 500m long road, some will go too early and blow up. 

The forecast is pretty good for Sunday, very similar to last year. It should stay dry, but will be a little windy, with 14-15mph winds blowing from the south-west. It could cause a few problems as it will be a cross-wind for most of the day, coming at them from their right on the way out, but will be a cross/tail-wind for most of the way back.

Contenders

This race is now one of the few chances in the northern Classics for the sprinters, like the Scheldenprijs between Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. The race doesn't always end in a sprint though, for example, in 2010, the race was blown to pieces, with a trio of Bobbie Traksel, Rick Flens and Ian Stannard staying away and Traksel took the win from Flens with Stannard 2" back. Behind them it was carnage with only 26 riders finishing, scattered minutes apart on the road. 

Two years ago Jasper Stuyven pulled off a master-stroke, taking advantage of an indecisive and reluctant-to-commit lead group, and possibly also his relative anonymity to win in spectacular style. No one gave him a chance when he took off with 17.1kms to go, brave, but foolish effort we all thought.. but he showed his power and his class and they didn't see him again. And last year, as I've detailed already above, Sagan, Stuyven and co. blew things up with 28kms to go and the sprinters were out-done again. 

You would think again though that the most likely scenario given the parcours, with the hard southern section around the Kwaremont a full 100km from the finish and the last real obstacle of the Nokereberg coming 50kms from the finish is that we are going to see the race come back together in time for a sprint finish in Kuurne again. 

The top four in the betting from last year, Bouhanni, Boonen, Sagan and Kristoff are all missing this year, and as a result, we have a pretty wide-open betting market for this race. The bookies don't seem to have a clue who's going to win it, and I can see why - it is a real conundrum. 

With no Sagan in the race this year though, and with the likelihood that a lot of the more aggressive punchy riders like Sagan and Wellens will have buried themselves on Saturday, the sprinters teams really ought to be working together to try to take it to a sprint. And it's with a sprint finish I'm going to focus on first, whether that's with a full peloton, or a reduced group of maybe 40 guys is the question though, but I think the leading sprinters in the betting should probably make that selection.  

I think Dylan Groenewegen could have a big race Sunday. I thought he would go well last year too, but was a bit worried when he finished 25th in the Omloop the day before, that would have taken a bit out of him. As it was, he didn't make the split like all the other sprinters and he came home in 18th place. He has started this season very well, with two wins and a second place so far, an even better return than this time last year. 

Interestingly, he is not doing Omloop this year, which I think is a wise decision, he'll come here fresher than last year. LottoNL are looking very strong and Roosen has been a superb leadout for him so far this season. Together with Leezer, Tankink, Wynants and Lindeman, I think they will be leading the charge up the home straight, ready to release Groenewegen in the last 200m. His low sprinting style will help him in to the headwind too. He was 8/1 last year, he's 7/1 this year, and he's my main bet this year. 

His biggest danger is probably Fernando Gaviria though for two reasons - firstly, because he's bloody fast and has four wins under his belt already this year, and secondly because he is with the powerhouse that is QuickStep Floors! Ok, he didn't have much to beat in San Juan or the Colombia Oro Y Paz race, but he showed great speed and fitness. 

5th in MSR last year, 9th in Gent Wevelgem, he also won the Kampioenschap van Vlaanderen in September, beating Greoenewegen in the sprint. 10th in Dwars Door and 6th in Gent Wevelgem the year before, he also won the Primus Classic and finished 2nd in the Kampioenschap van Vlaanderen. beaten by Timothy Dupont. He seems to be comfortable enough on cobbles then, and with Ilio Keisse, Niki Terpstra, Yves Lampaert, Florian Senechal and Max Richeze to look after him and give him a leadout, he has to have a big chance. But he is scheduled to ride the Omloop Saturday, I think that's a slight black mark against him.

Arnaud Démare is one that he should be worried about though, he's experienced over the cobbles and although he's had his fair share of bad luck over the stones in recent years, I think he will be right up there at the end again Sunday. Last year he was in a great position, one of the few pure sprinters in the leading Sagan group, but he stupidly started chasing down attacks with 28kms still to go instead of sitting in and letting the other team's domestiques do the chasing. So when it came to the moment to try to bridge to the winning move, Benoot and Rowe could, Démare couldn't.. Or he didn't want to waste any more energy and hoped that someone else would bring them back together. 

He'll have to play it smarter this year though and try to just hide away until the last 3kms or so, no need for heroics. It's not a great team he has here with him though, Sinkeldam, Le Gac, Guarnieri, Duchesne and Delage are not in the same league as QSF or even LottoNL, so he might have to do it all himself in the finish.. but that didn't stop him from winning MSR a few years back. 4th, 22nd, 11th and 6th are his results here in the four times he did ride it, he is always there or thereabouts.. Can he step up to the podium on Sunday? It's very possible, but the only sprint he's contested this year, in the Algarve, saw Dylan Groenewegen beat him. He also expended a lot of energy today in the Omloop, but still managed to finish 9th in the sprint. 

Sticking with the sprinters, Sam Bennett could be another lively outsider here, he doesn't like the hilly cobbled races too much, but seems to go ok on courses like this. He was an impressive winner of the Race Melbourne race in January, outsprinting man-of-the-moment Elia Viviani and Caleb Ewan. He's looking forward to this race and feels he has a strong team here with him to get him in to position in the last kilometre. He should be on a par with the likes of Démare, Groenewegen and the likes so would have a decent chance. 

Other sprinter outsiders include Sacha Modolo, who blew a chance of a stage win in stage 1 of Andalucia by not lunging for the line, but made up for it with an easy win in stage 3. So he's got good speed in the legs and a strong team of experienced guys here with him. He's never done KBK or OHN, but he finished a sensational 6th in the Ronde last year, showing that he can handle himself these days on the cobbles. If it comes to the sprint, he has a good leadout with the likes of Breschel, Langeveld, Vanmarcke and Docker and could well get a top 10.. but will he podium? It'll be a big ask if all the sprinters are there. 

And you also have Sonny Colbrelli who finished 8th, 9th, 5th, 1st and 7th in Dubai, his win on the Dam on stage 4 being very impressive. He was only 52nd last year, but then it wasn't a sprinters finish, but he has won Brabantse Pijl and finished 13th in Gent Wevelgem.. but I think he'd prefer an uphill finish. He was impressive in the Omloop today, getting in the key break of the day, that is until Valgren accelerated away and they were left floundering. He ended up in 8th as the peloton swallowed them up. 

Other outsider sprinters include Jens Debuscherre, Timothy Dupont and Magnus Cort Neilsen, but one that I wanted to have a bet on was Moreno Hofland as I had a good word about him, I had backed him at 200/1, but unfortunately he has cried off sick.. He was going to be Lotto's sprinter and he has finished 2nd here before. Instead, they still have a lively chance with Tiesj Benoot if it becomes a wild, attacking type race, but he put in a futile attack today with 60kms or so to go and wasted a lot of energy.

And he has had a good result here in the past, finishing in 2nd in 2014 behind Tom Boonen. Ok, his form hasn't been great in recent years, but that's why we are getting 150/1 on him (I actually took 200/1 with Bet365 when they opened) and I think he's definitely worth a small bet.   

There's a trio of guys on 10/1, each with different ways of possibly trying to win this race. Greg Van Avermaet, Matteo Trentin and Jasper Stuyven are sure to be key players in how this race turns out on Sunday. Greg Van Avermaet as we know is a master of the Flanders Classics, but his results in this race are pretty average to say the least, his 6th place last year was the first time he has broken in to the top 20. And last year, when it looked like he had a chance maybe of a good placing he was done over by Sagan and the others. 

He will he going all out for a good result in Omloop and that could be to his detriment in this race, he will find it hard going against the sprinters teams. He opened at 10/1 as I said above, but he has been backed in to 7/1 at the time of writing this on Friday night. Yes, of course he could blow the race to pieces a la Sagan, he could take a small group to the line and outsprint a lot of them, as long as there are none of the likes of Gaviria or Démare with him. But I can't be backing him at that price I think, he's too short given how wide open it could be, and he wasn't that impressive to me today in Omoop. 

Matteo Trentin is one I like though for this, he should have done better last year but blew it as far as I am concerned. He did finish 5th though and was looking very strong up until the finish, he should never have left Sagan get the jump on him by starting at the rear. He has also finished 9th in 2014, has finished 9th in the Omloop and has plenty of wins in similar races. 

He's here as part of a strong and experienced Mitchelton-Scott team, his first real chance to shine since leaving QSF, and he might have a point to prove here versus his old team. He needs to sit in a bit more this year, but even if it gets a bit rough and wild he is smart enough and strong enough to make the key moves. I think Trentin has a strong chance of a big result here too. He opened at 28/1, I didn't back him, but did get some 18/1 on him, he's now as low as 8/1, 10/1 best price from what I can see. 

BUT - I was impressed at first with him today to bridge up to that move when it came on the Berendries, he had a superb chance to win today and blew it as he refused to chase Valgren, his stalling led everyone else to go 'fuck it, I'm not chasing either' and Valgren was away. How much did it take out of him? He didn't have the energy to chase down the move, and couldn't even sprint at the end, he finished outside the top 10, whereas Colbrelli managed to sprint to 8th. 

Jasper Stuyven won here in 2016 and was 2nd last year, he clearly loves this race and course. Two years ago he caught them all by surprise when attacking early on the closing circuit (24 hours after crashing in OHN) but last year it was all about power, strength and skill as he instigated the final move that saw Sagan, Trentin, Rowe and Benoot get away. He was no match for Sagan in the sprint, but he did finish strongly to take 2nd, ahead of Trentin who you'd have expected to do better in the sprint.  

His chances could have revolved around how hard he'd have pushed in Omloop today, but it looks like he had a relatively easy day, in that he came home in the main peloton, rather than was up in the break busting a gut. He had the energy to sprint to 4th place, winning the bunch sprint ahead of some decent sprinters. But he is sure to be involved tomorrow if he isn't too tired, he did manage to finish 8th in the Omloop last year and 2nd the next day in this. 

And then you have a whole host of other guys who will be looking to split things up and not take it to a sprint like last year, and judging by how well Astana went in the Omloop today, with the winner and two others in the winning break of the day, they have to be considered. They have their heros from today, Michael Valgren, Alexey Lutsenko and Oscar 'don't feel the cold' Gatto, Gruzdev and Cort Neilsen, with Lutsenko, Valgren and Gatto potential break candidates late on again, or Cort Neilsen if it comes to a sprint. 

And then we have the other Lotto boys, who'll be desperate to make up for a poor team performance today, when Wellens and Benoot blew themselves up a long way from home. Benoot and Wallays may well try to get away again, but as I mentioned above, they might just work for Hofland. Besides Stuyven, Trek have Fabio Felline, do we give him another chance tomorrow? And Giacomo Nizzolo, but he crashed today and had to abandon.. he may not even start..

Sky's best hope probably, Dylan Van Baarle also crashed today but did finish the race in 51st, he might fancy it tomorrow. But Owain Doull might be a dark horse for them, he finished an impressive 11th today in OHN, sprinting to 8th in the bunch. , but he hasn't a great record in the limited number of Flanders races he's started.

And you have Oliver Naesen, Zdenek Stybar, Sep Vanmarcke, Niki Terpstra, Daniel Oss etc, who were all involved in the Omloop today, but will find it hard to get away and stay away I think on this course. But that probably won't be from a lack of trying, I think a lot of them will be disappointed with the way it turned out today.

Baptiste Planckaert and Mads Wurst Schmidt might go well for Katusha, Schmidt finished 12th today, so has good legs it seems, Planckaert has an ok sprint on him, he finished 10th here, or 5th in the bunch sprint. He has some good results in a lot of smaller Belgian/French/Dutch races, and if he is there or thereabouts at the finish and it comes down to a bunch sprint, he could be a lively outsider at a big price of 80/1.

So there we have it, I think it will be a sprint finish, be that from a large peloton, or maybe a select group of 50 riders or so. I like the look of Démare and Groenewegen though, with a preference for Groenewegen. Trentin could have a chance too as he's looking like he's in good form, and I'm having a small bet on Planckaert as he's 80/1. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Dylan Groenewegen at 6/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

0.5pts each-way on Matteo Trentin at 11/1 with Unibet

0.25pts each-way on Baptiste Planckaert at 80/1 with various

Match Bets

Planckaert to beat Cort Neilsen - 2pts at 6/4

Dupont to beat Dehaes and Demare to beat Modolo - 2pts at 5/4 with Bet365

Trentin to beat Colbrelli - 2pts at 11/10