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Published on Tuesday, 02 October 2018 09:06

Il Lombardia 2018

Bergamo - Como

Sat. October 13th, 241kms

And so we come to the end of another season, and no better way to end it than with with the 'Race of the Falling Leaves', often one of the most exciting races of the year, Il Lombardia!

Formerly known as the Giro di Lombardia, this is always an interesting Classic that has produced some fantastic races and fantastic winners over the years. It is also interesting in that the route normally was always changing, with different start and finish cities every year.

Winding over various mountains in between the start and the finish, but the Madonna Del Ghisallo and the Muro Di Surmano are normally its Poggio, Arenberg Forest or Oude Kwaremont, firm fixtures on the route map. 

This year's route is almost identical to last year's though, starting in Bergamo and ending in Como. That was an almost identical route to the 2015 version won by Vincenzo Nibali, the same man who won last year's race, he clearly likes this version. The majority of the route is virtually identical, with all the iconic climbs of the Colle Gallo, Brianza, Madonna del Ghisallo and Muro di Surmano.

The one major change though is the removal of the San Fermo Della Battaglia, which they crested with just 5.3kms to go last year - there is a small little hill, the Monte Olimpino - Rotatorio, with just 3.25kms to go to the finish this year, but you would think that the race will probably be decided on the Civiglio once again as it was in 2015 when Nibali attacked on the descent, and again in 2017 when he rode away from Pinot. 

"The Ghisallo is to this race as the Poggio is to the Sanremo, or as the forest of Arenberg is to Paris-Roubaix. These locations will never go out of fashion, as long as there are crowds of enthusiasts who will take a train, a car or a bike to travel across Europe and wait for hours for riders to pass by. The race will start in Bergamo and finish in Como: 247 kilometres climbing up and down Ghisallo, Muro di Sormano, Civiglio, with one of the toughest descents in cycling, and San Fermo della Battaglia, to pay tribute to Garibaldi’s soldiers who gave their lives for the Unification of Italy. The last 70 km will be really demanding.." 

Luca Gialanella, La Gazzetta dello Sport

Last year's race was won by Vincenzo Nibali in dominant fashion, he was looking strong all race and finally attacked hard to go in chase of Thibaut Pinot with 17kms to go. He very quickly bridged to him and then proceeded to drop him bit by bit on the descent. Nibali was simply sensational on the descent, flying down at breathtaking speed, bunny hopping over rough sections of asphalt and cutting through corners like he was on rails. 

Pinot descended like he has never descended before in his life, but it was still not good enough as Nibali pulled out a 5 second advantage with 10kms to go and it became a two-man 10km pursuit for victory. Behind, Moscon and Uran gave chase but they were 30" further back. As the road kicked up again for the San Fermo Della Battaglia, Nibali started to pull away and there was nothing Pinot could do. 

In fact Pinot was caught and quickly dropped by Julian Alaphilippe on the descent back to Como, Alaphilippe putting on an even better descending display than Nibali. Alaphilippe held on to take 2nd, with Moscon winning the sprint for 3rd from a group that included Uran, Pinot, Vuillermoz and Pozzovivo, with Quintana a further 4" back.. 

Two years ago it was Esteban Chaves who completed a memorable week after taking victory the Saturday before in the Giro dell'Emilia. Chaves got away with Uran, Rosa and Bardet on the Selvino but on the little rise of the Bergamo Alta climb, with some 3.8kms to go, Bardet hit the wall and the other three skipped away to contest the win. Rosa looked like he had it in the bag, but Chaves came with a spectacular late lunge to deny him and take the victory. It was the second time in a week that Uran would finish 3rd to Chaves.. 

The Route

The race sets off from Bergamo, southbound and the route initially leads through the Bergamo plain (over the first 40 km), and then up along the Val Cavallina, all the way to Casazza, for the first climb of this race, the Colle Gallo (right), it's not so difficult at 6% average for 7.4kms. 

After around 50kms more of flat, scenic roads they come to the second climb of the day, the Colle Brianza, a much gentler climb of 3.3% for 7.7kms, and then descend into Pescate. Finally, it rolls past Pusiano and Asso, and drops down into Onno, heading for Bellagio, where the Ghisallo begins.

The climb averages 6.2% for 8.6kms, and has a maximum 14% gradient, on a wide road, with several hairpins. The average is a bit deceptive though as it very steep for the first 3.5kms, then flattens out and even descends for 3kms, before kicking up for the last 1,300m at 9.4%. 

The descent is very fast, with long, straight stretches up to Maglio, where the Colma di Sormano climb begins abruptly. After a few kilometres with a moderate gradient, a few hundred metres past Sormano, the route turns left to tackle the Muro di Sormano (2 km at a 15.8% gradient). The road is tight and very steep, with very narrow hairpins and sharp gradients exceeding 25%, reaching almost 30% after about 1,000 metres.

After clearing the Colma, the road descends down into Nesso, starting out gently enough, then followed by a very technical descent with several hairpins on narrowed roadway. Here, the route takes the lake-shore road that leads to Como.

A steep climb up to Civiglio follows (4.2kms at 9.7%) and the road starts out wide enough but gets very narrow towards the top of the climb, with the excitable Tifosi making it even narrower as there are no barriers to keep them from getting right in the riders faces.

From the top of the Civiglio this year there's just 13.6kms to go, there's a pretty good chance we will have the final selection made by this point. And if it's not made on the ascent, it could be made on the descent, like Nibali did last year when he dropped Pinot. Last year they still had the San Fermo Della Battaglia to get over, but this year it's a short run on the flat from the bottom of the Civiglio to the final little obstacle. 

It's barely a blip on the profile, but if there are still a few riders together we could see one ride away from the others like Alaphilippe did on the SFDB last year. 1.75kms at 5.7% is the official length and gradient, but it's easier at the bottom and top, with a 1km section in the middle at 6.6%, with a part hitting 9%. There's two hairpins on the descent to negotiate but it's generally a pretty straight run to the finish for the last 3kms. One last, wide left-hand bend 700m before the finish and on to the long run to the finish on a 7m wide asphalt road.

The Weather

It was wet and messy for Gran-P on Thursday, but it looks like they will have a much better day on Saturday for this one. The forecast is for no rain, almost no wind and temperatures around 23 degrees - a perfect Lombardia day, so there can't be any complaints from any of them about the weather after. 

Contenders and Favourites

This time last year I was pretty sweet on Vincenzo Nibali and it worked out perfectly for us, landing us the bets at 100/30. I didn't give him a chance in this year's World's really, I didn't think he was fit enough or strong enough for that finish, and he was dropped a long way before the finish. 

I was putting a line through him for this too a few weeks back, he didn't strike me as having recovered to the necessary condition to feature. But.... then he goes and finishes 8th in the Giro dell'Emilia last weekend, not far behind Woods, Bardet, Pinot and Roglic, four big rivals for this race. 

And then he was right in the thick of the action in TVV on Monday, racing with Valverde, Bennett, Brambilla and the rest who were trying to catch the break towards the end.. He sat out Milan-Torino, which might have been a good idea, it was a pretty tough race for those involved.

And maybe, just maybe he's coming right at just the right time.. As others are starting to tire and think about their winter break, Nibali has been training for 6 weeks for this, building up to a race that means so much to him, having won it twice in the last three years. He has said before TVV though that he thinks he's missing that 'something', that special bit of form that will take him from riding well to winning a race as big as this. He thinks that if it will come down to a small group sprint, he won't be winning. More on that later.. 

He has a very good team here with him though, with the two Izagirre's, Mohoric, Pelizzoti and Domenico Pozzovivo, Pozzovivo seems to be riding extremely well at the moment, but it's hard to see how he can win this, but I think he could well top 10 like he did in Milan-Torino and Dell'Emilia this week and in this race last year (6th).

Nibali has quite a number of challengers this year though, and runner-up last year, Julian Alaphilippe sat at the top of the list for me, I had written three paragraphs about him on Monday before he announced Monday evening he was done for the season as he was too tired.. So with that, we may have lost the best chance of a win for QSF, as I can't really see any of the other guys winning it, or even featuring at the finish. 

Of course you have to think that the new World Champion, Alejandro Valverde has to be in with a chance, this finish looks tailor-made for him. He should be able to go, or stay close, to the leaders over the Civiglio, will be fine on the little kicker and should beat most of those that will be with him in a sprint finish. He has a pretty solid record in this race, he didn't do it last year as he was injured, but before that he finished 6th, 4th, 2nd and 2nd. 

He was bouncing around in TVV, just following wheels and waiting for someone to tow him up to the breakaway guys in the last 5kms, but no one did, so he finished 15th. He did look strong and lively though at times and he carried that through to Milan-Torino on Wednesday when he attacked multiple times, pulling a small group clear on the penultimate time up the Superga, but when push came to shove in the finale, he was unable to go with Pinot and was even passed and dropped by Lopez who had hit the deck moments before. 

He said afterwards that he rode the race for the fun of it and thoroughly enjoyed the race, animating it and causing it to blow up late on, and that if he really wanted to win it he should have held a little back. He's happy with his form though and his legs, he says it's all about Saturday for him. 

EF Cannondale have two or three strong candidates for this, with in-form Rigo Uran and Michael Woods leading their charge. Uran is riding really well at the moment and showed his strength to attack up to the break in the TVV on Monday, and then go straight past them and up to Kennaugh in no time whatsoever. He could have done with the hills carrying on though, as the chasers came back to him on the flat, and he eventually finished 7th.

He also showed his current form has carried over well from finishing 4th and 5th in the last two mountain stages of the Vuelta by taking 2nd in Giro Dell'Emilia on Sunday, escaping from the pack in the closing stages to go in chase of De Marchi, but he was never going to bridge the gap, he finished solo though, thanks to his attack on a similar hill to the Monte Olimpino inside the last 2kms. 

He has finished 3rd on three occassions here, and has finished inside the top 22 on 7 of the 9 times he's done this race (DNF in 2013 & 2014), so he clearly likes this race and shows he holds his form well to the end of the season. It's going to be hard for him to win it though.. He will need to attack hard on the Civiglio and hope he either goes solo or his accomplices are slower in a sprint than he is, and there are not many who are!

Michael Woods almost won the World's, but he was never going to best Valverde a sprint finish, he did well to secure bronze ahead of Dumoulin. He also did really well in Dell'Emilia on Saturday and TVV on Monday, taking 4th in both races, but how can he win this? I'm not sure he can, he won't be able to get clear solo, and he won't win a sprint.. but he will be up there again. They also have outside chances in Daniel Martinez and Simon Clarke, but you'd think they'll be working for the top two guys here, Martinez was prominent in the last 15kms of Milan-Torino but he faded in the last ascent of the Superga.

AG2R's best chance rests with their team leader Romain Bardet, a man that has been in good form of late, finishing 2nd in the World's and 2nd in Giro Della Toscana and 6th in dell'Emilia. He has developed a bit of a taste for one-day races this year, his performance in Strade Bianche was pretty amazing, can he top and tail the season with a big result in a one-day race?

He was 4th here two years ago, he was in the winning break with Chaves, but couldn't stay with them on the Bergamo Alta, coming home just 6" behind them. He said this week it's one of his favourite races, always lots of attacking and enjoys the battle and the countryside, he's really looking forward to it. 

He has a good team with him here, with Matthias Frank and Tony Gallopin in good form in particular, he is likely to be there near the leaders going over the Civiglio, but how can Bardet win it? Only with a stealth, lucky, late attack that is briefly let go as Valverde and Uran and the like look at each other.. If he gets 10-15" in the last 2-3kms they might not catch him. But that is going to be very hard I reckon. Should top 10, he might even be good enough for the top 3. 

BMC have some riders in form, some of whom will be wearing the famous red and black for the last time. Alessandro De Marchi showed his tactical brain and his strength to take the Giro dell'Emilia, he could be a danger with an earlier attack that tries to get a head start ahead of the Civiglio, and we all know how dangerous he is if you give him a lead.

Dylan Teuns also rode well in dell'Emilia, taking 3rd place, he was having to play the team-mate to ADM who was up the road. He is the kind of guy who can hide away on Saturday, get dragged up the Civiglio in about 15th wheel and then try to pounce in the last 5kms. He could fly under the radar a little bit, even though he's a quality rider, he won't be marked as closely as some of the big guns. Give him a chance to attack and get away on the final kicker and he might get enough of a gap to stay away.  

The way FDJ rode in Milan Torino, and in particular, Thibaut Pinot, you'd have to think they'll be playing a big part in this race too. Pinot has been in superb form for the last month or so, winning two stages in the Vuelta and taking 9th in the World's, 5th in dell'Emilia, 2nd in TVV and winning M-T.

In winning M-T he climbed Superga in 13 min 48 sec, so around 6.9 w/kg. They also went very fast (faster than ever) on the first ascent, ~6.5 w/kg for 12 min 27 sec. (from Mihai Cazacu). Those numbers are massive, enough to drop most guys on the Civiglio if he goes for it. 

He is definitely one of the form riders of the race and on a course that should hold no fears for him, He finished 5th last year, coming home in the first little group 38" down on Nibali, skipped it in 2016 but was an impressive 3rd in 2015, finishing on his own 32" down on Nibali again.

With David Gauda and Sébastien Reichenbach in superb form too in the Italian prep races, he will have good assistance when he needs it to chase down attacks on the Civiglio, or even to push it hard at the front to thin out the peloton or set up an attack.

His achilles heel though is of course his descending, and although he has gotten a lot better since his days of being one of the worst descenders in the peloton, he's still a lot slower than the likes of Nibali, as we saw last year.

Given how his form seems to be in such a better place compared to Nibali's though, you'd have to think he has a good chance of possibly shaking him off on the Civiglio and reversing positions with him to take his second win of the week. It will depend on who he comes to the line with, someone like Valverde will beat him.

Mitchelton-Scott have a strong-looking team on paper here with the two Yates brothers, Kreuziger, Haig, Albasini and Nieve, all who could win it if on a really good day. Adam Yates massively disappointed in the World's, after being close to favouritism, he was beaten a long way out. He looked good for a while in M-T, appearing at the front tracking the leaders, but when push came to shove he was not able to go with the best and finished 14th, a minute down. He's never done well in this race either.

Simon Yates finished 18th in 2015 and was a DNF in both the World's and dell'Emilia, I think he's tired after a hard season and I'm ruling him out too. Romain Kreuziger on the other hand seemed to be riding well, finishing an impressive 6th in the World's, but then DNF'ed in dell'Emilia and M-T, so hard to know where he is now for this. Jack Haig rode well in the Vuelta, then finished 19th in the World's and 13th in dell'Emilia, he might well represent their best chance in a race like this.

Sky have a team full of potential contenders here, but none of them seem to be in absolute tip-top shape to me. Gianni Moscon was a big hope for many in the World's, he cracked on the final climb, as I thought he would, it was just too steep for him. He was looking ok in dell'Emilia but then got dropped when the road got steeper, and he was miles off the pace in M-T - if he repeats this on Saturday he'll be dropped too when it kicks off.

Egan Bernal is their team leader for the race though, and the young Colombian looks to be in ok form too having finished 10th in M-T on Wednesday. He didn't do the Vuelta or the World's, he's had a long two-month break since finishing 15th in the TDF, so he should be coming here fresh and ready you'd think. But he got dropped in the last few kilometres on the Superga on Wednesday, even Fabio Aru beat him home, that sort of performance won't see him winning this..

They also have David De La Cruz, Kenny Elissonde and the two Henaos, but none of them are particularly good in one-day races, nor do they have the recent form to suggest they will be featuring. Diego Rosa though is a possibility - 17th here last year is ok, but the year before he was 2nd, when it looked like he was going to win it from the three-man sprint, but was beaten by Chaves on the line (right). He was also 5th the year before, he clearly goes well here.

And he's also a former winner of M-T too of course, winning it in 2016. But his recent form doesn't suggest he'll be coming close this year, he's been well off the pace in all the warm-up races, although he did finish 13th Thursday in Gran Piemonte, but that was a pretty weak field to say the least. 

Lotto Soudal will have their chances too with a team full of attacking talent, including Thomas de Gendt, Jens Keukeleire, Tim Wellens, Tiesj Benoot and Bjorg Lambrecht.. the question is, who will be given the nod? Well, you'd expect TDG to go up the road early, like he did in M-T, and you'd think that Wellens will be the chosen son, but will he be able to pull it off? 

He has finished 4th here in 2014, but his most recent efforts haven't gone so well, and he seems to have gone off the boil a little in the last month.. He DNF'ed in Gran-P Thursday, either he's saving his legs for Saturday, or he's not feeling 100%. He disappointed in the World's and then was only 17th in M-T, missing the key moves. Benoot hasn't been in great form of late either, also a DNF in Gran-P, and I'm not sure this is a race for him either. 

LottoJumbo have a good chance here too with Primoz Roglic, he has been in ok form of late, but struggled on the steep finish in the World's, as I said he would.. He was right in the thick of the action in dell'Emilia, but like the rest, had to settle for a bit part after de Marchi had escaped, taking 7th place in the end. In TVV he was a little bit further back, but still finished 22nd.

He has a very strong team here with him, with in-form Koen Bouwman, George Bennett and Anwan Tolhoek joined by Steven Kruijswijk, Robert Gesink and Floris de Tier, I've a feeling we could see a lot of black and yellow jerseys on the Civiglio ripping it up for a late attack by Roglic, or maybe even Bennett,Bennett could possibly be in better form and could be given a little bit more freedom than Roglic might.. But Roglic finished only 40th last year, he was caught out late on and finished over 8 minutes down.. that's not good enough to win.. 

Trek have a few hopefuls too, with in-form Toms Skujins a potential dark horse here, but he is worried about getting dropped on the Surmano if they go full gas up it. He will need to hit the climb with a small advantage and a willing group like in TVV, if he can attack before it and get there with 30-40" he might just be able to stay away like he did in TVV, he was very, very strong in the closing kilometres. 

Bauke Mollema is another shout for them, but he doesn't look like he can win a race like this, but he won't be far off, should be top 20. UAE Team Emirates have former winner Dan Martin and Rui Costa, but neither of them look in the shape required to win this.

Sunweb have an in-form Wilko Kelderman, but it's hard to see him winning it either, he won't get away solo, and he won't win from a sprint. If, and that's a big IF Michael Matthews can hang in there over the Civiglio he would have a big chance of winning this from a small group sprint. But he's DNF'ed both times he's done it, and DNF'ed in M-T and TVV, I think it will be too tough for him. 

Bora Hansgrohe have a few riders who should go well here and are in form, Rafal Majka was mixing it up in M-T on Wednesday, finishing 13th, he was just unable to go with the better climbers when push came to shove. He did finish 3rd here back in 2013, but recent results here haven't been great, 26th last year being the best.

Davide Formolo was 12th in TVV, and was riding well, but his record here is DNF for the last two years. Patrick Konrad was 12th in TVV and 11th in Gran-P on Thursday, but his record here too is poor, DNF last year.. But if he can stay with the leaders over the Civiglio he'll be a big danger at the finish. 

Can't see any of the Dimension Data, Katusha, Nippo Vini, Willier Trestina or the Israel Cycling Academy, except maybe Ben Hermans coming close to winning, but two outsiders who should go well are Giulio Ciccone for Bardiani, he's in good form at the moment, and Matta Cattaneo of Androni, he finished 4th on Wednesday in M-T.  

How will this one pan out then? Well, you'd have to think that the double ascent of the Ghisallo and the Sormano will sort out the men from the boys once again, we might only have 30-40 hitting the Civiglio with less than 20kms to go again. There are a lot of tired bodies out there at this point in a tough race like this at the end of a long season, we'll probably get a lot of DNFs, but the strongest will fight it out on the Civiglio and the race will definitely be decided there for many. 

Nibali doesn't look like the Nibali of 2017 or 2015, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him struggle. But at the same time, maybe this has all been one long prep for this race, and he hasn't been putting himself in to the red too much, just gauging his effort, saving himself for one big tilt. But he's right when he says that he is missing that kick I think, and even if he manages to get away towards the end, I don't think he'll be on his own and won't beat many in a sprint finish.

Of course Valverde will be there, but he also doesn't seem to be 100%, although he too could have been playing games in the recent races. But there is a chance that he could be dropped on the Civiglio if the pace is really drilled hard, he struggled to go with Pinot in M-T and was caught and passed easily by Lopez. And that's the only way to stop him winning I think, dropping him on the Civiglio (or even the Sormano, but that's less likely I think). 

Thibaut Pinot is in great form and isn't afraid to attack and push it, and he has a great team here to help set him up, I think he has a big chance of winning this, or at least getting us a return on the each-way money.. I was really hoping for something like 8/1 or bigger, he's very short at 9/2. LottoJumbo could well play a big part in this race too with all those climbers, but I'd almost give George Bennett a better chance than Roglic, he seems to be in better form. 

Looking at the table below of the best performers in this race though, Dan Martin is above both Nibali and Valverde, with 4 top 10 finishes, if he has managed to ride himself in to a bit of form in the last few weeks, he has to be a challenger too. 

It's very hard to predict this year though I think, we could get a surprise, and I wouldn't be surprised to see someone like Diego Rosa, Matteo Cattaneo or Giulio Ciccone feature at the finish at big prices. It might also come down to someone just having enough of a final kick to get away solo on the Monte Olimpino and ride to the finish with a small margin of victory. 

Pinot is very short as I said, but he looks like the most likely winner to me, he was very good to us in the Vuelta winning two stages when we were on him, let's hope we get one more win out of him to finish off the season. I think he's a great e/w bet to nothing, he should be top 3. Romain Bardet should go close and Woods, Uran and Valverde will be in the mix too

And that's probably it from me too for this year, thank you all for your support and for reading my previews this year. As I said this time last year, this game gets harder with every year that passes, with bookies offering crap odds and cutting limits, and we also saw the likes of Paddy Power basically withdraw completely from cycling this year, reducing our options.

But we've had a lot of winners along the way too and I hope you've enjoyed the season as much as I have. This could well be the last preview I do though, I just don't have the time or the inclination to spend a large proportion of my spare time on the site any more. I might do the odd preview, maybe something during the Grand Tours, but for now, that's me signing off. 

Recommendations:

2pts e/w on Thibaut Pinot at 9/2 with Ladbrokes

0.5pts e/w on Romain Bardet at 12/1 with 365

0.2pts e/w on Guilio Ciccone at 250/1 with 365

0.2pts e/w on Mattia Cattaneo at 80/1 with 365

0.2pts e/w on Diego Rosa at 150/1 with 365

Match Bets

Bardet to beat Roglic and Pinot to beat Woods - 2pts at 6/4

Nibali to beat Yates, Valverde to beat Moscon and Bardet to beat Roglic - 2pts at 7/4

Cattaneo to beat Kelderman - 1pt at 11/8