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Published on Friday, 06 October 2017 09:06

Il Lombardia 2017

Sat. October 7th, 247kms

The 'Race of the Falling Leaves' is one of the most exciting races of the year, a fantastic climax to the season where the top climbers in the world do battle over a challenging course with 4,000m of climbing in stunning countryside. 

Il Lombardia, formerly known as the Giro di Lombardia, is an interesting Classic in that the route normally is always changing. You have Milan-San Remo which varies the route but always goes from Milan to San Remo, via the Poggio every time. Paris-Roubaix, Liege-Bastogne-Liege more or less the same, but Il Lombardia usually changes the start and finish cities every year and winds over various mountains in between, but the Madonna Del Ghisallo and the Muro Di Surmano are normally its Poggio, Arenberg Forest or Oude Kwaremont. 

This year's route is a reverse of last year's, starting in Bergamo and ending in Como. In fact, it's an almost identical route to the 2015 version won by Vincenzo Nibali, it's just 2kms longer, they seem to have found an extra 2kms between the Colle Brianza and the Madonna del Ghisallo. The rest of the route is identical, with all the iconic climbs and the ascent and descent of the San Fermo Della Battaglia before the flat run in to the finish in Begamo. Just before the San Fermo Della Battaglia they also crest the Civiglio, where Nibali made his winning move two years ago by attacking on the descent with 17.8kms to go when there was a little lull at the front  (below).  

He took a lot of risks coming down the descent, almost coming a cropper on two of the tight bends on the descent of the Civiglio, but kept it together as the six remaining chasers squabbled about who would take up the chase. In the end, Daniel Moreno attacked away on the San Fermo Della Battaglia and came home in 2nd, ahead of Thibaut Pinot, with Valverde, Rosa and Nieve not far behind. 

The Ghisallo and Sormano are where the race breaks up usually, the two tough ascents coming within the space of 22kms, there usually aren't many left in contention as they enter the last 30kms. Last year they crested the Ghisallo with just 65kms gone so it didn't really make any impact on the outcome of the race, it should be different this year. 

"The Ghisallo is to this race as the Poggio is to the Sanremo, or as the forest of Arenberg is to Paris-Roubaix. These locations will never go out of fashion, as long as there are crowds of enthusiasts who will take a train, a car or a bike to travel across Europe and wait for hours for riders to pass by. The race will start in Bergamo and finish in Como: 247 kilometres climbing up and down Ghisallo, Muro di Sormano, Civiglio, with one of the toughest descents in cycling, and San Fermo della Battaglia, to pay tribute to Garibaldi’s soldiers who gave their lives for the Unification of Italy. The last 70 km will be really demanding.." 

Luca Gialanella, La Gazzetta dello Sport

Last year's race was won by Esteban Chaves, who completed a memorable week after taking victory the Saturday before in the Giro dell'Emilia. Chaves got away with Uran, Rosa and Bardet on the Selvino but on the little rise of the Bergamo Alta climb some 3.8kms to go Bardet hit the wall and the other three skipped away to contest the win. Rosa looked like he had it in the bag, but Chaves came with a spectacular late lunge to deny him and take the victory. It was the second time in a week that Uran would finish 3rd to Chaves.. 

The Route

The race sets off from Bergamo, southbound and the route initially leads through the Bergamo plain (over the first 40 km), and then up along the Val Cavallina, all the way to Casazza, for the first climb of this race, the Colle Gallo (right). It's a climb they crossed last year in the latter part of the race, it's not so difficult at 6% average for 7.4kms. 

After around 50kms more of flat, scenic roads they come to the second climb of the day, the Colle Brianza, a much gentler climb of 3.3% for 7.7kms, and then descend into Pescate. Finally, it rolls past Pusiano and Asso, and drops down into Onno, heading for Bellagio, where the Ghisallo begins. The climb averages 6.2% for 8.6kms, and has a maximum 14% gradient, on a wide road, with several hairpins. The average is a bit deceptive though as it very steep for the first 3.5kms, then flattens out and even descends for 3kms, before kicking up for the last 1,300m at 9.4% average. 

The descent is very fast, with long, straight stretches up to Maglio, where the Colma di Sormano climb begins abruptly. After a few kilometres with a moderate gradient, a few hundred metres past Sormano, the route turns left to tackle the Muro di Sormano (2 km at a 15.8% gradient). The road is tight and very steep, and it runs partly through the woods, with very narrow hairpins and sharp gradients exceeding 25% and reaching almost 30% after about 1,000 metres.

After clearing the Colma, the road descends down into Nesso, starting out gently enough, then followed by a very technical descent with several hairpins on narrowed roadway. Here, the route takes the lake-shore road that leads to Como. A steep climb up to Civiglio follows (4.2kms at 9.7%) and the roadway is markedly narrowed at the top of the climb. From the top of the Civiglio there is just 17kms to go, we will have a fair chance we will have the final selection made by this point. 

The final climb isn't too long or too hard, but coming at 241kms it is really going to hurt and should be the scene of the race winning move or final selection, as we saw two years ago when one of the best climbers in the world Romain Bardet was shelled out the back of the quartet he was in. 

The climb has a gradient of nearly 7% over just 2.7kms, on narrow roads and rough surfaces, with several hairpins that lead all the way up to the summit, which comes with just 5.4kms to go to the finish. The descent runs along a wide and well-paved road, with two well-lit tunnels and two wide roundabouts, and it ends 1,000 m before the finish. One last, wide left-hand bend 600m before the finish and on to the sprint finish on a 7m wide asphalt road.

Contenders and Favourites

After his powerful displays in Giro dell'Emilia last Saturday and the Tre Valli Varesine on Tuesday and and the fact he won here two years ago, Vincenzo Nibali starts as the hot favourite to take another Lombardia on Saturday. In Emilia he was hamstrung on the final climb as Visconti was up the road, if he wasn't I think there is no doubt that Nibali would have accelerated away and would have probably won that race. The power output from him on the final climb was outrageous - 7.5w/kg for 5'42" on the final ascent, and he wasn't even going full gas with Gio up the road.

Visconti reversed roles in the Tre Valli, putting everyone on the rivet in the last 5kms to set up a monster attack from Nibali, one that only Thibaut Pinot could follow. They got a small gap but Geniez and Ulissi came across to them, with Geniez having the power still to take the sprint, Nibali had to settle for 3rd in the end. He sat out Milano-Torino on Thursday, saving the legs for Saturday.

He's clearly in great form, he clearly will be given full leadership and clearance to go for the win, and Gio will have to cede to his captain again Saturday I reckon,. The Bahrain team have looked strong this week and he has won here before.. Ticks all the boxes it seems. But I do think there was an element of fortune in his win here in 2015, in that his opponents were incredibly stupid to let a rider like Nibali attack like he did on a descent and simply ride away from them. There is no way he should have been given even a few metres of space, especially on a descent, but there were a lot of tired bodies, and nervous descenders behind him. 

Will they let him repeat that trick this year? Will he be able to get away on a descent again? It's possible, but surely they will be more alert to it this time. Maybe he will keep attacking on the ascent again this time, he tried on the Civiglio last time and the likes of Valverde, Pinot, Nieve and Chaves wouldn't let him go that easily, but he pulled away on the descent. And it's a quality field this year too, it's going to be hard for him to skip away, just like he found out on Tuesday when he was reeled in by Pinot and Geniez. And if it comes to a sprint finish between 4 or 5 guys, Nibali probably won't win, like he had to settle for 3rd in the Tre Valli. Enough negative points to almost put me off him at just 3/1.

Esteban Chaves is of course out of the race after breaking his shoulder in his heavy crash in Emilia, so who can take up the challenge to Nibali this year? Thibaut Pinot seems to like this race, finishing 12th, 14th and 3rd in the last three years he has done the race (skipped it in 2016), so the 3rd he achieved in 2015 was on this specific course, coming after Nibali, but just wasn't good enough to catch him. 

He seems to have kept good form after the Tour, winning the Tour de l'Ain in August and his 2nd in the TVV on Tuesday showed he is ready for this too, this time he didn't let Nibali go, he was on him immediately, the only one who could follow his powerful attack. I think it will be the same on Saturday, if Nibali goes, I think Pinot will be right on him. And if it comes to a sprint between the two of them again, Pinot wins.

BUT... Pinot as we know is a nervous descender - and that descent down from the San Fermo Della Bataglia is 'one of the hardest descents in cycling' according to Luca Gialanella of the Gazetta as I mentioned above. Nibali will push it to the very extreme as we have seen before, scraping the road-side barriers and flinging his bike in and out of every bend.. Pinot might not be able to hang on to him. Plus, Pinot was in a good position in the last 3kms of Milano-Torino but didn't go with the likes of Gaudu, Uran and Aru when they accelerated, not a great sign if he hopes to stay with the best on Saturday. He looks a little short too at just 7/1. 

Dan Martin is a former winner of this race as well of course, winning going the opposite direction in to Bergamo in 2014 with an audacious late attack that caught out the sprinters. He has been pretty quiet of late, with only a training spin around the joke-of-a-course that was the Tour of Britain this year between the TDF and the World Champs, but he did finish with the lead group in the World's, albeit last of the group in 26th place, but he was never going to compete in that sprint, best to just stay out the way.. 

He rode well in Milano-Torino on Thursday considering he had suffered a 13-hour journey to get there. He tweeted after that it hurt a lot after his nightmare journey to get there but that he hopes "that's the engine kick-started now for Lombardia." If anyone can follow the likes of Uran and Nibali, Martin is probably one and he has to be on the shortlist I think given how well he has done here in the past, he has said to Pat Lefevre today that he wants to finish his relationship with QuickStep in style.. At 25/1 he might just offer some e/w value as he is likely to be involved. 

Quickstep also have Julian Alaphilippe at the race and he is in ok form too, but will he be able to stay with the best climbers over the Sormano and even the Civiglio when they are really flying? Well he showed in the World's how great the legs were, with a blistering attack that we barely saw, he was only reeled in in the last 2kms. If he can stay with the climbers then he has a big chance, it may even be that if he makes it over the Civiglio then the San Fermo dell Battaglia can be a launching pad for him, it is only 2.7kms at 7%, but as we saw with Bardet last year, even a smallish climb like thiis can cause problems after more than 240kms of hard racing. And he was poor as favourite in Milano-Torino, attacking early and fading and coming home more than 5 minutes down on Uran in the end. 7/1 is too short for me. 

Rigoberto Uran has done this race eight times, DNF'ing in 2014 and 2013, but other than that he has never finished lower than 20th and has finished 3rd three times. Last year was one of those times, losing out in the sprint to Chaves and Rosa. He was in great form in the Autumn races last year, he looks to be in good form this year too following his 3rd in Emilia last Saturday and his brilliant win in Milano-Torino Thursday.

I had started to write this preview earlier in the week and said how he was not able to stay anywhere near Nibali when he went in TVV and eventually finished a lowly 29th, maybe that was him just saving the legs when he wasn't on the best of days. I also wrote "Uran is a real bottler though - a wheel-sucker and low in ambition. He just follows, he rarely attacks and even when he gets away with someone he rarely wants to work hard, rather he just sits up and waits for someone else to do the work. I can't see him getting away on his own again, and if it comes to a sprint with some of the other favourites here, I don't think he wins."

Then he looked like he was going to do the same in M-T on Thursday, I even tweeted out he was wheelsucking, but even the worst wheelsucker in the world knows when the guys around him are spent and he just sprinted away from his companions to forge a lead that was big enough to see him hold off a very fast finishing Adam Yates, with Aru and Quintana not far behind either. That performance might just have changed my mind on him.. He looked very strong, very confident and we know he goes well here with three 3rds in the past. He said afterwards: 

"I felt so good I had to try something. Maybe I attacked a bit early but we were in a small group and I really wanted to try my luck. The climb was really hard, I knew. I suffered a lot in the last few meters but the situation was under control. These races are really important to me. I want to win Saturday for Colombia." It's a very different sort of finish on Saturday to the Superga, but in the form he's in at the moment he has to be in the final selection. 

Astana have a few chances with Fabio Aru, Jacob Fuglsang and Luis Leon Sanchez. Aru always seems to go well in the Italian races, he loves racing in Italy. He didn't have a great Vuelta, but he has finished 11th and 8th in Emilia and TVV earlier this week, he was in that little group with Moscon and Villella that finished just 7" behind Geniez on Tuesday. He then followed that up with a very respectable 3rd place in Milano-Torino, he really put himself in the pain-cave, riding like a man having an epileptic fit, but it did the job, he held on for 3rd. 

He finished in 11th last year, but he was 1'26" back on Chaves, but just 2" behind the Valverde group that fought out 6th place. I think though that he might struggle to stay with the faster guys on the Civiglio and especially on the decent to the Battaglia, and even if he gets to the finish with a group of guys they'll outsprint him. 

Jacob Fuglsang had fun at the Tour of Almaty last week, winning a stage and finishing 3rd overall, but since quitting the Tour on stage 13 his high-grade racing has been poor, he finished down the field again in M-T on Thursday. I think it will take a strange turn of events for him to be their main player on Saturday, I think he will be riding in support for the top two guys, but 200/1 is a big price to ignore for a quality rider. 

And LL Sanchez has had a good week too, winning the Bruno Beghelli with a trademark late attack to deny the favourites. It was his first win since April 2016 in Pais Vasco, a much over-due win for a fine rider who is always on the attack. He either paid for that effort in the next two Italian races or he decided to save his legs for Saturday, as he wasn't involved at all in TVV or M-T. It may be that he has to work for Aru too, but if he's still at the front going over the Civiglio, watch out for him trying a move ahead of the Battaglia. 

Tom Dumoulin at 16/1 leads Sunweb here, and he's winding down on an excellent season for him, from his fantastic win in the Giro to his double gold medals at the World's. He said after coming home in 28th (with Uran) in the TVV that he just didn't have the legs, but was hopeful of a better ride in Lombardia. I'm not sure he will though, it's been a very long, hard season for him and this is a tough race with a lot of climbing. It looks like he totally focused his end-of-season around the World's TTs, he was average in Montreal and Quebec and average in Italy so far in the last week. (Dumoulin has since pulled out, citing fatigue and illness)

Team Sky have a whole team of guys again who could challenge in this race, but will it be too hard for Michal Kwiatkowski? I put him in the same sort of bracket as Alaphilippe, if he can get over the major climbs and comes to the final climb feeling ok he might have a chance. He's been a little quiet since San Sebastian, but was right up there in the World's, just wasn't good enough in the sprint, taking 11th in the end. His record here reads DNF, DNF, 77, 54 and I just don't think he's suited to this race to pull himself in to contention this year. 

On the other hand though Sky also have their top climbers here too, with Mikel Landa and Woet Poels, with even Diego Rosa as a lively outsider given that he nearly won this race 12 months ago while riding for Astana. I thought Mikel Landa might return to action for Emilia or TVV, but he hasn't raced now for two months, since the Vuelta a Burgos, which he won. How will he go here? Well the course should suit him, but will he be fit enough after such a layoff? He'll have no problems on the earlier climbs you'd think, but will he be able to stick with the fastest guys up the Battaglia? I also think he will need to be on his own to win, he hasn't a good sprint at all on him, and I just think it will be very hard to get away from these guys on his own. I'm not backing him at 18/1 anyway. 

Woet Poels was very strong in the Vuelta but seemed to have come off the boil a bit since then I thought.. but he pulled a 6th place out of the bag in M-T Thursday, it could mean that he is looking to peak for Sunday. Diego Rosa is obviously suited to the course seeing as he came within inches of winning this race last year. He looked the winner 100m from the line but Chaves finished very strongly to deny him. Rosa struggled early on the Superga though on Thursday and went out the back door when things got serious up front, not such a great sign. It might all come down to who is given the nod in the team to be the leader, or could even be decided out on the road, as to who is going best. 

Adam Yates was one I was going to add in the 'others with small chances' paragraph a the end, but his ride in T-M on Thursday made me rethink his chances. He was excellent, attacking away from Aru and coming after Uran and you could visibly see the gap closing in the last kilometre. The line came in time to save Uran from being mugged by Yates though. He had a terrible Vuelta and wasn't at the races in Emilia last week, so it was a surprise to see him finish so strong today, but it was a finish that played to his strengths.

Unlike Quintana, Yates has a pretty decent record in one day races, having won San Sebastian in the past, as well as the GP Industria & Artigianato twice. This finish probably suits him better too than last year's route, and if he rides like he did on Thursday he could well be in the mix heading down the descent of the Civiglio, and should be able to stay close to the leaders on the Battaglia. If he hadn't ridden like he did Thursday though he'd have been 50/1 or more, as it is, he's just 20/1 and that's a bit short I think.

Bauke Mollema is probably Trek's best chance of a result here, if he rides it like he rides San Sebastian he would be a leading player. He was 5th in Montreal, so the form looks to be pretty good still, and he has finished 19th, 12th and 7th here before. The year he finished 7th though they finished in Lecco on a different sort of route, but still passed over the Ghisallo with 50kms to go. In 2015 on this route though he finished 75th, so clearly something went wrong or he just didn't go well on the course.

They also have Jarlinson Pantano but his form of late has been pretty poor, a DNF at Emilia and 107th in Bruno Beghelli shows that his mind is already in the off-season I think. Mollema is 80/1 though and that is just a bit tempting.. 

Nairo Quintana is here too, in only his 3rd race day since the TDF, the other two were a DNF in the World's and 58th in TVV, I thought it was safe to say he hadn't really carried any form in to the Autumn season, but then he turned around and rode in to a fine 4th place finish in M-T Thursday. He has finished 11th and 16th here in the past though, but he hasn't raced it since finishing 16th in 2013. Quintana has a really terrible record when it comes to one day races though, with his only one-day race win ever coming in the Giro dell'Emilia in 2012. I can't see him adding to that this weekend though. 

Egan Bernal was one I had backed for Emilia last Saturday and the record books show him as finishin only 20th, but the reality is he was right up there at the front until Chaves' crash carried him in to the ditch at the side of the road and he missed the decisive splits. He may well have been a lot closer only for that. But he struggled to go with the leaders Thursday on the Superga, and came home well over a minute down, behind guys like Taaramae and Stetina, so it may be that he is struggling now in this elevated company. 

Diego Ulissi, Darwin Atapuma, Rui Costa form a strong three-pronged attack from UAE Emirates, with Ulissi probably offering their best chance, if he can hang in there over the climbs, which isn't necessarily a given. He has been in magnificent form though, winning in Montreal, 2nd in the Marco Pantani, 4th in Coppa Sabatini, 7th in Emilia and 4th in TVV. Given that set of results, he's actually the form rider of the race, making his 40/1 price look very big indeed. But this is a very hard race, and the last 60kms are particularly brutal. His best result here though is 22nd, last year, he seems to find the route a bit too hard for him, he finished 75th two years ago on this route. I'm going to pass on him despite his excellent form.

Darwin Atapuma is more suited to a longer day of longer climbing, these short punchy climbs near the finish don't really suit him. Rui Costa has finished 3rd in 2014, but he generally tends to finish 25th to 45th in this race, his worst result coming in 2015 on this route when he was 46th. He just hasn't been good enough for me this year though. 

Tim Wellens and Tony Gallopin are two guys who could be involved for Lotto Soudal, Wellens has come close here before, losing out in a sprint for 3rd the year Dan Martin escaped, he finished behind Valverde and Costa. Wellens says that Lombardia is a mixture of riders who are just waiting for the end of the season and those hunting a result. According to Wellens, he is part of the latter group. He has been riding really well too, finishing 5th in Quebec and then winning in Wallonie, riding away from everyone. He could be a dark horse, but he'll have to get over the Civiglio and Battaglia, which won't be easy.

Gallopin is also in great form with top 10s in Montreal, Quebec, Wallonie and 13th in the World's road race. He was 7th in 2015 on this route, 56" behind Nibali, I think we could be at least one, if not both of the Lotto boys in the top 10, but I'm not so sure they'll be good enough to win over the Civiglio and Battaglia. 

Jan Bakelants, Alexis Vuillermoz, Domenico Pozzovivo. three with outside chances for AG2R, and even Alexander Geniez has come in to the reckoning now following his superb win in the sprint in TVV on Tuesday. He climbed very well that day and was the strongest at the finish to out-do Pinot and Nibali, no mean feat. I don't know if he can repeat that performance here, and I think Vuillermoz and Pozzovivo will be 5th to 20th sort of positions too. 

Ilnur Zakarin, Nico Roche, David Gaudu, Damiano Cunego, Davide Formolo, Primoz Roglic, Steven Kruijswijk - all strong guys who could also go well on a course like this, but I'm not sure they'll be making the podium. 

So who wins it then? It's a very difficult race to call, but I think we may see only 50 guys or less with 50kms to go once they are over the Sormano and then it's every man for themselves on the Civiglio. 9.7% for 4.2kms will sort the men from the boys and we might see less than 20 at the front of the race coming to the Battaglia, maybe even less.

The last 20kms have a lot of twisty, tricky bends, but luckily the forecast is perfect for racing Saturday with no rain, and only a mild breeze. I think Nibali, Pinot, Uran, are probably going to be there pushing things, but we might also see Yates, Gallopin, Wellens, Mollema, Poels and Martin still involved too.. The Battaglia decided the race two years ago when Nibali just kept attacking until eventually he got a small gap starting the descent, which he turned in to a big gap with his 'Kamikaze' descending skills. Who's to say he won't do it again? 

I think Uran is almost certainly going to be fighting for the win too, but he's also very short. I think Dan Martin will be close and is a decent price, and Bauke Mollema and Tim Wellens at bigger prices might make it interesting. I think we have to back Nibali though as a saver, and sit back and enjoy what should be a cracking final classic of the year. 

And that's probably it from me too for this year, thank you all for your support and for reading my previews this year, it's been great interacting with you all. This game gets harder with every year that passes, with bookies offering shit odds and cutting limits, and some of the crazy results don't help either. But we've had a lot of winners along the way too and I hope you've enjoyed the season as much as I have. For now though, I'm taking a break, sorting out stuff in my life that needs sorting out and recharging the batteries to be ready for the Tour Down Under in January.. It is only 3 months away after all!

Recommendations:

1.5pts win on Vincenzo Nibali at 100/30 with Skybet

0.5pts e/w on Tim Wellens at 50/1 with Bet365 (he was 50/1 with Skybet but once I got half a point on with them they cut him to just 25/1)

0.3pts each-way on Bauke Mollema at 80/1 with 365

0.5pts each-way on Dan Martin at 25/1 wtih 365

Match Bets

Uran to beat Pinot, Yates to beat Roche, Vuillermoz to beat Brambilla - 2pts at 2/1 with 365

Moscon to beat Alaphilippe - 2pts at 7/4 (looks far too big, Moscon finished 5th in Emilia and 7th in TVV...)

Mollema to beat Dumoulin - 2pts at 11/10 (I'm hoping Mollema will be up there) (forget that now, Dumoulin is out)

Wellens to beat Geniez - 2pts at evens (Wellens is targeting this, Geniez could be on a win come-down)

Martin to beat Poels - 3pts at 5/6 (I think Martin can beat Poels here)

Giro dell'Emilia 2017 >>