Details

Published on Monday, 23 May 2016 13:32

Giro d'Italia St 16

Bressanone to Andalo

Tuesday 24th May, 138kms 

Back after a rest day, and boy did some of the riders need a rest. The race has been blown to pieces and turned on its head in the last few days, with Kruijswijk taking control on stages 14 and 15. Nibali has had two days to forget and the gains Chaves made on 14 he gave up in the ITT on Sunday.

It see us going in to the final week with large gaps finally between the GC candidates, it had all been pretty close up until now. Kruijswijk looks in control now, he holds a lead of 2'12" over Chaves and nearly 3 minutes over Nibali. And not only does he hold a decent lead, but he also looks the strongest in the race - so calm, so controlled, so powerful. 

Nibali on the other hand has gone from 8/13 to 7/1 in the space of two days, he had a bad day on Saturday, but Sunday was a nightmare for him. Not only was he already off the pace for the stage win, he was losing about 50" to Kruijswijk and then he dropped his chain and got his derailleur stuck in the spokes and ended up in 25th, 2'10" behind Kruijswijk. As I said a few days ago, I'd rather be a layer than a backer at the odds-on prices.. 

As for the result of the stage - to say I'm pissed off would be an understatement. I really abhor these kinds of results when an anonymous Russian from a pro-conti team who are subject to less tests and scrutiny than World Tour teams comes and pulls off a 500/1 shock win. I know, it's my pocket talking, I'm annoyed to have called the stage right when others were saying he wouldn't be in the first five, and stayed away from the short priced favourites Nibali and Chaves and still got beaten by hundreths of a second.

I'm also annoyed when you see some of the images of Foliforov powering up the climb as if on a rocket bike like the one below. 6.2 w/kg he produced over the last 6.3kms of the climb, an unbelievable power output (Kruijs was 5.98 w/kg).

Turbo ruso chavales, y mirando al helicóptero jajajaja #Giro #Folifollador pic.twitter.com/Fb3B0hQvEo

— Null (@Airre_) May 22, 2016

And it seems I'm not the only one surprised by Foliforov's victory, Nicolas Roche said in his Irish Independent diary today:

"While some of the overall contenders seemed to have an off day today, Russian Alexander Foliforov raised a few eyebrows by beating them all to win his first ever pro race"

and BMC's Campbell Flakemore tweeted this straight after the stage:

"Always makes you wonder these Russian bros pulling results like this! hmmmm"

I think we were robbed by a cheat, and one day he might be busted like Santambrogio and the like, but that's no good to us, we won't be paid out retrospectively.. Rant over!

Anyway, on we go, at least the Kruijswijk over Nibali result came in, to save us a little but but it was a loss of around 4pts on the day, when it should really be a profit of around 5.7pts. Roglic had a poor day, either we found out today that he can't do uphill TTs, or he was told to take it easy today and save his legs for the days ahead, something I probably should have thought might happen, so sorry about that one..

Valverde had a much better day today, he rode a superb TT to land a podium spot, not something I expected to be honest. It keeps him in with a shot at the podium, he's only 38" behind Nibali now and says that he is highly motivated and looking forward to the last week. Apparently he suffered from the altitude on stage 14, but he seemed to have made a spectacular recovery from it today. Stages 19 and 20 reach the highest points of the race though so let's see how he copes there..

Can Chaves steal back 2'12"? Can Valverde climb on to the podium? Can Majka and Zakarin, the siamese twins who seem to be stuck to each other in this race, lift themselves from 5th and 6th on to a podium spot for us? It's possible - this race is far from over, and as we saw over this weekend, anything can happen in this race. 

One thing to keep an eye on for the rest of this race though is desperate IAM riders looking to embelish their Palmares now that it is official that they will all be looking for a new team next year. Denifl might be worth a flutter at 12/1 for the KOM with Bet365, and Haussler will be worth keeping an eye on over the coming days too. 

The Route

They start in Bressanone in South Tyrol, just 36kms from the Alpe Di Siusi where the ITT finished on stage 15. It's a very short stage at just 138kms, the shortest road stage of the race. The first 43kms are a descent down the valley and through the intermediate sprint at Bolzano, so it's probably going to be held together until then, or we could get a scenario like last week where the sprinters get in to the break to try to take the points.  

Once through the intermediate sprint they start climbing almost straight away, heading up the Cat 2 Mendelpass. The official distance of the climb is 14.8kms, but they will have been climbing for 21kms in total. The Mendelpass climb itself is given an average of 6.5%, so it's not overly difficult, but hits a max of 10% for a few hundred metres. 

Once over the top it's just 68kms to the finish, of which the next 48kms more or less are descending, passing through another intermediate sprint at Cles and after 112kms they start climbing again, this time on the Cat 2 Fai Della Paganella. The Paganella climb tops out at 11.3kms, but it comes in waves, with the first 8.5kms averaging 7.8%, then a section which nearly flattens out, before a two step run to the top with parts that hit 15% and parts that are flat. 

From the top they descend for 2.6kms at a steep 8.6% to Bv da Santel where the road starts to rise again, gently at first for 2kms at 1.9%, then 2.5kms at 6.2% as they wind their way through three hairpin bends, hitting a max of 9% with 4kms to go. With 2kms to go the road flattens out, but rises again for the last 500m. There is a slight kink left with 150m to go and the finishing straight is just 80m long so not much room to get a sprint organised if a small group comes to the finish together. 

The Giro also finished in Andalo in 1973 when Eddie Merckx took the stage victory.  

Contenders

This is a short stage to kick things off after the rest day, a lot shorter than the last stage after the first rest day, stage 10, which saw them take on a tough course over 219kms. That day the break made it, with Ciccone winning the stage from Rovny and Atapuma, but behind Amador attacked on the descent and caused consternation, with riders all over the road. 

This stage should stay together I think for a very fast opening 43kms until the intermediate sprint - Nizzolo leads the points competition, but Ulissi is a big danger now to him, especially considering how well he is riding and that he is one of the favourites for this stage. If Nizzolo doesn't take any points in the intermediates and Ulissi wins the stage it could start to swing things in his favour. 

Or it could be like some of the stages last week that saw the likes of Nizzolo, Demare and Modolo get in the break of the day only to drop away as soon as the climbing started. The first climb, the Mendelpass isn't too difficult at around 6.5%, although it is 21kms long, so if the likes of Nizzolo or Modolo do get in the break and they ride steadily enough up it they could well contest the second sprint too half-way down the descent in Cles.

This will be an interesting stage from the GC point of view. Do they let the break stay away and just fight it out over the final 20kms and the climb of the Paganella? I'm not sure - I think as the stage is so short they will be able to keep a tight rein on the break and with bonus seconds, and every available second, so valuable now, I think they will reel them in before the finish.

Alejandro Valverde is the 7/1 favourite for the stage and he will like this finish for sure - Movistar have a number of cards they can play on this stage, with possibly Gio Visconti going up the road again in search for KOM points again, just depends on whether Movistar let him or make him work for Valverde at this finish. If Visconti is allowed go then he has a big chance for sure on a stage like this, and that is why he is the 3rd favourite at 16/1, despite his team-mate also being favourite.

It's a tricky one to figure out, I give both of them a big chance of winning the stage. Alejandro Valverde showed in the TT that he has recovered well from his jour-sans on stage 14, and he is fired up to finish this race well. Sutherland, Rojas and Herrada will drag him over that last hill and in to a good position hitting the last kilometre and the uphill sprint will suit him well. The one thing that worries me a little though is that Nibali beat him in the sprint in stage 13, but he claims that he thought there were more riders up the road and it wasn't worth sprinting for the placings and bonus seconds.

Giovanni Visconti did an excellent TT on Sunday, finishing 13th, just 1'21" down on the Russian. He could attack on the Paganella or even on the final ramp to the finish, and if he goes he might just slip away as they watch Valverde and Amador. Even if he gets away with a few similar riders he has a good sprint on him and could take the stage.  

Second favourite is Diego Ulissi and the Italian Lampre man is chasing a hat-trick of stage wins after his two superb wins in different styles in stages 4 and 11. Both wins were on tricky finshes like this one with punchy little hills before the finish, going solo in stage 4 and bounding up to Amador and Jungels who were up the road in stage 11 and winning the sprint. With the Points jersey within reach he will be fired up to take points, Lampre could be looking to ensure they fight Nizzolo all the way to Turin, with Modolo in the sprints and Ulissi on stages like this.

Vincenzo Nibali, like Visconti is just 16/1, and he'll be fired up to make up for his terrible weekend. He'll have calmed down a little by Tuesday, but I'd say the atmosphere in the Astana team camp Sunday night was pretty tense. I think he's way too short at 16/1 though, he won't be just let ride away, and even if he tried, I don't think he's capable, his attacks have been poor and he was struggling in the TT too. And if it comes to a sprint finish, he would be beaten by a number of guys.

Esteban Chaves is 22/1 with Paddy Power but as short as 12/1 with Will Hill. He has been aggressive and has a stage win under his belt aleady, and he showed in that win that he has an ok sprint on him. He could attack hard again on the Paganella, or even on that 6% ramp that tops out with just 2kms to go. If he can get a gap of 20" or so at the top of that final climb he might hang on. But it will be hard to get away and hang on from the chasers behind.

Steven Kruijswijk is just 25/1 but I can't see him being let go on his own in the pink jersey, no matter how strong he is looking. Tim Wellens did an excellent TT on Sunday, he was sitting in the top 10 for quite a while, but ended up 17th as the GC men pushed him down. It shows that he has good legs though and this finish is almost like an Ardennes or Flanders finish, with a 2km stretch at 6% and an uphill sprint finish. I can see him attacking on the final descent off the Paganella and powering up that last climb with a small advantage, he'll be hard to pin back if they play GC cat and mouse behind, he's no threat after all. He's 25/1 with PP and that's worth an each-way bet I think, even the 20/1 with all others looks ok. 

Like Ulissi, Gianluca Brambilla has been a star of this race, his solo stage win being one of the highlights of the race so far. With Jungels slipping away out of the top 3 now, Etixx might get behind Brambilla again on a stage like this. He could be similar to Wellens, he could attack away on the final climb, final descent or the pull up to the finish. He's 28/1 like when we backed him for his stage win, but I'm not sure he'll get away this time. 

And there's loads more guys who could have a chance here - Stefano Pirazzi could be an interesting choice at 33/1, Atapuma, Nieve, Formolo, Ciccone, Kangert, Fuglsang all could have a chance. The two Russians who filled 1st and 4th place in the TT at 500/1 are now just 33/1 for this stage, clearly the bookies aren't taking any chances on the juice brothers, I can't see them win it, but it wouldn't surprise me either.

At bigger fancy prices, Daniel Martinez did a good TT today, at one point early on was in the top 10, he's 200/1. His team-mate at Willier-Southeast though Matteo Busato could have a chance too on a finish like this at a big looking 125/1 with Bet365, he's just 50/1 with PP. He finished 8th in that stage won by Ulissi to Prai a Mare, so he clearly can get over lumpy finishes and sprint at the end of them. Sonny Colbrelli also looks big at 100/1, he did a good TT too and looks strong, if he can hang in there he'd have a big chance in the sprint finish. Only Paddy Power are pricing him at the moment which is strange, but he might be worth a tiny bet.

Moreno Moser and Enrico Battaglin are two Italians who could also be up for a finish like this, but I think it would be a big surprise to see them win. Or how about Merhawi Kudus for Dimension Data? Why? Well because it's Eritrean Independence Day.. Remember Mandela Day last year in the Tour de France, when Stevo Cummings won, DD like to put on a show on significant days for the team, and he's sure to be up for it today on a stage that might suit him too.. He's only 50/1 though, looks like they have cottoned on to this angle, he should probably be double or treble that price, but worth keeping onside I think as he may well make the break. In fact, he's 66/1 with Betfair Sportsbook if you have an account

Overall though, it once again is a real puzzle to try to find the winner of this stage. Will it be the break of the day? Will it be a late attack on the Paganella? A late acceleration on the climb in to the town? Or a sprint finish of some sort? All are possible! So I am going to go with Visconti and Wellens for late attacks and a few bigger priced outsiders as well in Colbrelli and Busato. I will watch the in-play though as if I think Valverde has a chance of it coming to a sprint finish, then I will want to be backing him. Ulissi has a big chance of course given his performances and results to date, but I'm reluctant to back him at just 14/1, definitely not the 8/1 he is with PP.  

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Tim Wellens at 25/1 with Paddy Power

0.5pts each-way on Giovanni Visconti at 16/1 with Paddy Power

0.25pts each-way on Merhawi Kudus at 66/1 with Betfair Sportsbook

0.25pts each-way on Matteo Busato at 125/1 with Bet365

A wait and see on Valverde in play..

Matchbets

Zakarin to beat Majka, Visconti to beat Pirazzi - 3pts on the double at evens with PP

Kudus to beat Anton - 1.5pts at 5/6 with Bet365

Valverde to beat Zakarin and Nibali to beat Majka - 2pts at 5/4 with Bet365