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Published on Monday, 12 May 2014 23:54

Giro d'Italia Stage5

Tarranto to Viggiano

Wed. 14th May, 203kms 

The first real test then for the main GC riders as they hit the first uphill finish of the many uphill finishes they will hit over the rest of the tour. A not so long distance of 203kms should not be too much of a problem, but the last 80kms or so will see riders stretch their climbing legs for the first time.  

The big news on stage 5 was not the winner of the sprint but the fact that Kittel wasn't involved in the stage after pulling out with fever just before the start of the stage.. Cue carnage in the betting market as some quick movers managed to lay all the 4/7 and upwards on Kitten on betfair. There was some big prices around though on Viviani and the rest of the sprinters and I managed to get another 2pts on Viviani at 9/1.

What a farce of a stage it turned out to be though as the slippy wet roads scared the riders so much they neutralised the stage for all bar the last 10km or so effectively. As it turned out it was the riders who were right as no sooner had they started really racing for it we had crashes galore. One of which took out more or less the entire Cannondale train and killed the hopes of my man Viviani.  

Nacer Bouhanni survived a puncture 15km out and getting caught up in the crash that took out Viviani to get up on the line for victory. To his credit Viviani kept racing and took a very good 5th given the circumstances. Not good enough for the bets I had on though. Luckily bookies refunded bets on Kittel so the damage was not as bad as it could be.

Better news though came from California where my tip on Sunday for the overall at 5/4, Bradley Wiggins destroyed the opposition in the time trial to take the lead and is now 1/7 to win the race. 

This stage takes the riders across the top of the 'instep' of Italy's boot heel, crossing from the east coast to the west coast. It is going to be the first real test for the peloton and the GC men in particular, as this is a tough and tricky stage coming straight after an easy, short, flat stage 4.

They ride through the Basilicata region, one of the poorer regions in Italy but the homeland of one Domenico Pozzovivo who hails from the area. They will pass through his home town of Montalbano Jonico after about 70kms, just as the road starts to climb. There will probably be the traditional ride off the front for the family but then things start to get really serious for the first time in the race.

The finish is in the tiny town of Viggiano which is making its debut as a stage city. It has a population of only 3100 inhabitants, that's sure to swell by quite a few for this stage! Official start is given at 12.00 local time and finish is expected between 16.55 and 17.30.

The Route

After departing from the coastal town of Taranto they arc around the Gulf of Taranto for about 60km before suddenly turning right and heading inland where the road starts to rise up almost immediately. First, the little lump up to the town of Pozzovivo Montalbano Jonico where the first intermediate sprint is. Then down a challenging little descent and then the long drag up to the Cat 3 climb of Valico d. Serra di San Chirico starts. It actually drags on for around 65kms from the bottom until the peak at 138.4kms which is 850m above sea level.

They then descend down another tricky decent back down to the valley floor on the Pertusillo dam. After crossing Villa d'Agri, the road then climbs towards the finishing town of Viggiano, where they begin a 14km circuit after passing over the summit finish for the first time.

The Cat 4 climb actually passes over the finishing climb but goes on past the line for about 1km for the KOM points, the last km averaging 7%. The first part of the climb is easy enough, getting steeper as it goes - it averages 3.4% for the first 5.5kms, but the last 2.5kms average 6.2%, hitting a max of 8%. Then down a very technical descent with 9 hairpin bends and on to the valley floor again briefly before starting up again almost immediately.

The big challenge will come on the last time up with the last 1.75kms averaging 6.3% and parts at 8%, with the last km averaging 7%. The finishing straight is 100m long on a 6m wide road with a 6% slope it will suit a really punchy rider or we may even see a long breakaway make it to the finish.

Contenders and Favourites

This is going to be a hard stage to call for a number of reasons. Firstly, because it is the first real test of the race with an uphill finish. Secondly, will the GC men be looking to push themselves too hard this early in the race? Thirdly, there is a possibility a break might go and stay away, depending on whether the GC men really are bothered about making their men work too hard and finally, how many riders are hiding form, have prepared well for this first test, how many are maybe feeling a little under the weather after 4 days of cold and rain? Having said all that, it is most likely that it will be a group of 40 or so of the favourites, maybe more that will come to the last climb together.

The first thought that has to come in to your head on a stage like this would have to be Purito Rodriguez, but I'll come back to him later I think. Instead I will start with the home town boy Domenico Pozzovivo who will not only be all out to impress as the stage passes by his home town, but he also will know the roads like no other rider in this race. Not only that but the steep, but not too steep finish looks tailor made for him to give it a real go.

The problem is, he may be willing, but is the body able? He seems to disappoint a lot and there are plenty of guys in this peloton who are better than him at this sort of finish. In his favour might be that he attacks with 3-4kms to go, the GC favourites let him go as they don't see him as a big danger, and they mark each other until it's too late and he gets 20 seconds they can't pull back.

I think he will try to be involved and he could be a good 'back to lay' bet on Betfair, that is, back him at his current price and put up a lay bet in running at say 2/1, so that if he gets a nice gap, someone might take the lay bet you have put up and you are left with a no lose bet with a decent profit potential if he hangs on. When the prices opened though he was 80/1 with Bet365 and I simply had to have some of that. He was only 20/1 with BetVictor! Maybe They don't know about him being local.. big ask for the little man, but 80/1 is too big.

Favourite for the stage is Diego Ulissi of Lampre-Merida and he is an uneasy favourite for me at a short looking 7/1 in a wide-open betting heat. The word at the start of the season was he was in great shape and he duly landed some nice bets for St 2 and the overall at the Tour Down Under.

He didn't do much at all in February bit then took a great win in the GP Camaiore at the start of March. Again though, he hasn't really impressed since, with an alright performance to finish 11th in Tirreno, but nothing great on the stages and pretty average performances when fancied by some in the Ardennes Classics. The finish should suit him but I would rather watch and see how he does tomorrow than back him at that price.

The 2nd favourite for the stage though is Joaquim Rodriguez and you can understand why - a perfect stage finish for him, he's in good shape, and he needs to start making up time as soon as possible seeing as he has lost 38" already to Nairo. I think actually that his misfortune in the TTT has given us an opportunity to back him each-way for the overall with a 'bet to nothing' - that is, at 4/1 we can back him knowing that if he
places we get our stake back at least. As long as he finishes in the top 3! Alternatively though, the 4/5 for a top 3 placing with 888Sport looks worth taking and I had 5pts on that tonight.

I first thought that he would take a lot of beating tomorrow - the double ascent of the final climb will allow Movistar, Katusha and Saxo to shed most of the peloton. We could see them coming to the final climb with maybe only 40-50 guys at the front. I then expect about 30 to maybe fight out the last 3-4kms and Rodriguez will be right up there. The more I think about it though, I think it may not be the right time for Rodriguez,
he might use a lot of energy and not gain a lot of time. Instead, I think we could see the Katusha double act where Rodriguez gives it a go, is chased down and then Dani Moreno launches off the front. The 25/1 on him with Paddy Power was a decent price I felt.

I think the final climb might just be on the steep side for the likes of Matthews, Swift and the other punchy sprinters, although Matthews will be going all out to hold on to his pink jersey. He is as short as 6/1, best priced 10/1 but I'm giving him a skip. Swift is a far bigger 18/1 and out of the two I'd prefer him but I'll give it a miss too.

Cadel Evans could be up there, as could Quintana but I think they might save it for the bigger challenges ahead - but, if one of them goes for it, expect one hell of a skirmish to stop anyone gaining any time. It will be interesting to see how Uran goes tomorrow, he is saying he is feeling great, but we'll soon see. It's the kind of finish he should like, and 22/1 could look a big price tomorrow afternoon.

Finally, two Italians who will love this sort of finish - both punchy, powerful climbers with a good kick at the finish, both on teams who have ear-marked this stage as a big target. Enrico Battaglin will love this finish and although he suffered an injury not so long ago, the word from the Bardiani camp is that he is fit and well and ready for the task. An excellent winner of stage 4 last year at the top of a similar climb ahead of Felline, Visconti and Uran, I expect him to be in the mix and 20/1 each way looks good.

Neri-Sottoli are also targeting this stage with Felline and Ponzi and out of the two I fancy Ponzi to put on a big show and possibly be dueling with Battaglin in the last 500m. 40/1 each-way will do for a small interest.

Recommendation:

0.8pts each-way on Dani Moreno at 25/1 with Paddy Power

0.3pts each-way on Domenico Pozzovivo at 80/1 with Paddy Power

0.5pts each-way on Enrico Battaglin at 20/1 with Paddy Power

0.3pts each-way on Simone Ponzi at 40/1 with Paddy Power

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