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Published on Friday, 30 May 2014 23:18

Giro d'Italia St. 20

Maniago to Monte Zoncolan

Saturday 31st May, 167kms 

Switch off the phone, forget the gardening, try to get rid of the wives/partners/kids for the afternoon (unless you have a kid as bonkers about cycling as mine..). This is the big one. There have been some great stages in the Giro, but this one should cap the lot with it's monumental finish. 10km at 12% average, with max slopes of 22%. It's going to be epic. 

This climb is one of the few in cycling that you can almost feel the riders pain as they crawl their way up the hill. It is often compared to the Angliru that's used in the Vuelta for its steepness and the suffering it incurs. It is so narrow and steep that motorbikes are used as service cars with pillion passengers carrying bikes over their shoulders as you can see at 11'20" in the video as they prepare to go after the riders!

The Zoncolan has been used four times in the Giro, the first time in 2003 when Gilbert Simoni won the 12th stage on the road from Sutrio at the east side of the Zoncolan. That day saw one of the last battles by Marco Pantini for a Giro stage victory, launching an attack 3km from the finish, but ultimately finished 5th, 42" behind Simoni.

Simoni won again the next time it was used in 2007, this time using the more demanding ascent from the Ovaro side. In 2010 Ivan Basso proved the strongest, winning the stage and ultimately setting up his overall victory too.

The last time it was used in the Giro was in 2011 when Igor Anton won a great battle with doped up Alberto Contador and Vincenzo Nibali over the exact same course, which you can see in the video below. If you listen very closely as Contador comes to the top of the climb there are loud boos for the man that was ultimately stripped of his win, with some fans clearly giving the big thumbs down to el Pisolero... They knew..

It's one of those rare climbs in cycling that will see mechanics making changes to both chainrings and cassettes as riders opt for something like a 36 chain ring and 30 or 32 sprocket at the back. Up front, it will be a brutal battle, down the back it'll be about survival and every push and tow will be gratefully received. 

The Route

The course is in a shape of the letter S, starting in Maniago in the provence of Pordenone and heads east for the first 40kms or so before turning north and heading along the Friulan hills. The stage starts off easy with flat to rolling roads for the first 70kms or so until they hit Tolmezzo. From there the road starts to head upwards for the first time in the day as they tackle the Cat. 1 climb of the Passo del Pura. 

This is a steady climb over 11.2kms which averages 7.7%. The first 3.5kms are a steady 4.8% average but the next 5.5kms are much harder as it zig-zags up the mountain, averaging closer to 10% before easing off a little again towards the summit. Then it's a very short descent of around 8kms to the dam of Lake Sauris and they are suddenly climbing again, this time up the Cat 2 Sella Razzo.

This is a much more irregular climb, coming in four sections, which taken as a whole averages out at 5.2%, but that's deceptive as there are several sections of flat to downhill that drag down the average. The hardest part of the 15km total distance of the climb comes from kilometre 11 to 14.5 where it averages over 9%, hitting a max of 15% for 500m near the top. 

Then it's a longer 30km descent this time to the base of the Zoncolan at Ovaro in the Degano Stream Valley. They now face the monster that is the Zoncolan and riders will already be extremely nervous just form its reputation alone. The first 2kms average a pretty nasty 9.1%. But that'll feel like a pleasure compared to what they face next. from kilometre 2-6 it averages a crushing 15.4% with a part hitting 22% 3.5kms up and 20% around the 6km mark. it starts to 'ease' a little from km 6 to 8, at 'just' 13.9%  but the section between 3km and 2km to go averages 12.6% through the hairpins.

With 1500m to go there is a short flat part for 200m or so before it kicks up again for the last kilometre which goes through three tunnels. The last 500m averages 11% and peaks at 16% on the hairpin bend that is just 250m from the finish. It is a brutal way to finish a punishing Giro and the winner here will go down in Giro legend like those before him.

Rain is forecast for the end of the days racing with temperatures a lowish 15 degrees. They will have a slight headwind up the Zoncolan but it's not a very exposed climb with lots of trees and steep cliffs beside them so it shouldn't cause too many problems.  

Contenders and Favourites

There can only be winner of this as far as I am concerned, and just like I had a big bet on him today (got matched eventually in running at 4/5 for 10pts, was made to sweat a bit for it though with Aru's extraordinary performance!) I will be rolling some of the profits on to Nairo Quintana tomorrow as I think this is where he will crown a magnificent week for him. 

He hinted today that he wants to win this stage and frankly I think it is unlikely that anyone will be able to stop him unless a break gets a huge gap and gets to the Zoncolan with more than a 6 minute lead. But Movistar will not allow that to happen I think, there is only one flat stage left so they will give it their all to ensure that he is in with a chance of winning the stage. And just like on the penultimate climb of the Tour de France last year, he will ride away from everyone.

The climb is long and the climb is steep and he is yet to win a monumental climb like this and really wants to do so. He clearly showed in the TT that he is really fired up to show that the Stelviogate is not going to make any difference at the end of this race. I said that he could put 2-3 minutes in to some of his GC rivals in the TT and so it was, putting 2 minutes in to Rolland and Pozzovivo and 3 minutes in to Majka. I think he could well do the same tomorrow. I don't think he will wait until near the top to go either, I can see him going with 5km to go where it hits 20% and just draw away from them all. 

I thought he would be around evens for the stage at best and actually he is around 6/4 on Betfair and that is worth a 6point bet I think to try to crown a good giro backing him with one last big win. 

Fabio Aru rode a stunning time trial to finish second behind Quintana, but will he have anything left in his legs tomorrow after that ride? I wouldn't doubt him any more but that was special out of the young man and I'm not sure he will have the power at the finish tomorrow after a ride like that. I think he is too short at 5/1 best for sure. He is only 39" behind Uran though and we could well see him sneak in to second place though with a big ride, he should be in the top 5, possibly even on the podium. 

Fabio Duarte could be one that could give him a run for his money, he rode very well on stage 18 to Rifugio Panarotto and will like these steep gradients. He can pace himself well and may be able to hang on to Quintana when he goes, or at least ride clear of the rest in pursuit. He came close for us the other day and I think he is capable of a podium again at 12/1.

Evans will find this too steep and as well as Rolland has been riding he will struggle too I think to go with the little guys. Speaking of little guys, Domenico Pozzovivo did a very good time trial and led for a while, until Aru came and smashed his time by over 2 minutes! 5th on the stage though showed that he is still in great shape and will like these steep slopes, his 53kg frame is a massive advantage on this terrain and he could be one of those to be able to go with Quintana when he makes his surges on the steep parts. He tends to struggle on longer climbs though and although this is just 10km long, it is so steep it takes a long time to climb it and I feel he might just run out of gas towards the end. 

Sebastian Henao has been a revelation, and we could well see him involved again tomorrow at a big looking 40/1, and what about Arredondo? He did as I expected he would today and rode it like a tourist, maybe he was a little hungover after all the champagne they said they had drank on the Trek bus after his victory on stage 18! He clearly though was saving the legs for tomorrow and is another very likely candidate to be fighting it out on the final few kilometres. We may well see him make the first move as seems to be the way he wants to do things, so he might be worth backing at 22 on Betfair with the view to laying him back at much shorter odds close to the finish. 

Igor Anton could be an interesting one - winner of this stage in 2011, holding off Contador and Nibali, could he be given an opportunity by Quintana today? Really hard to tell but he is not the Anton of 2011 and it's doubtful whether even if he was let go he would be able to hold off the chasing pack. It might be that they let him attack early on in the climb like he did before if any breakaway is under control, Quintana doesn't really need looking after on a hill like this, he can take care of himself. They might send him up the road to make the others do the work and then Quintana goes when he wants to later on. Either way he was worth 0.35pts on Betfair at 170 for a fun bet that could work out if they all look at each other for too long. 

But as I said above, I think they will all be left in the shadow of the man in Pink and Quintana will cap a big win with a third stage victory. Duarte, Aru, Arredondo and Pozzovivo could round out the top 5, with Uran, Evans, Henao, Pelizotti and Rolland rounding out the top 10. As well as Deignan is riding, I think these sharp ones are not quite for him and he doesn't have the acceleration of a Quintana or Duarte as he stated himself after Stage 18. 

Recommendation:

6pts bet on Quintana at 6/4 on Betfair.

Back Arredondo at 22 on Betfair for 1pt with a view to laying back at 2/1 or shorter inside the last 5kms

Fabio Duarte - 0.5pts each-way at 14/1 with Skybet 

Igor Anton - 0.35pts win at 170 on Betfair

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