Details

Published on Monday, 26 May 2014 22:32

Giro d'Italia St.16

Ponte di Legno to Val Martello Martelltal

Tuesday 27th May, 139kms 

The previous two rest days have been followed by nice easy stages. Not so this one. The riders will be welcomed back on their bikes with a short but brutal day in the saddle. It may only be 139kms but they cross three monster Cat 1 climbs, including the Cima Coppi of the Stelvio on the way to Val Martello Martelltal.

This stage was one affected by the bad weather last year, when to the disappointment of all (except maybe the riders!) this stage up two of the most legendary climbs of the Giro was cancelled due to heavy snow on the Stelvio.  

The race organisers decided to give it another go this year though and it is a nasty challenge that awaits the peloton after a rest day. All three KOM climbs they go over on the stage are over 2000m, with the Gavia being a dizzying 2618m, the Stelvio a massive 2758m and the finish on Val Martello  2059m. There were some doubts, rumours and counter rumours buzzing about on the Rest Day today that the stage may have to be altered because of snow on the Stelvio, but thankfully, the last word seems to be that the stage has been given the all clear and the stage goes ahead as planned. 

This could be a crucially important stage for the red jersey wearer and others like Bouhanni who are not blessed with the best climbing legs. It's a short stage at only 139kms, and with three brutal climbs to get over, there is a real danger that some will finish outside the time limit. The time limit depends on the average speed of the winner - less than 30km/h, 16% of the winner's time, 30-34km/h - 17% and if over 34km/h - 18%.

There was another shakeup in the betting following stage 15 but Quintana is back to around the price he was before the race started at even money, it looks to be between him and Uran though who is now 2/1, in from 7/2 the day before as he limited losses and showed some defiance on Sunday. 

The Route

A nice easy opening to the stage as they leave Ponte Di Legno in a little circuit, but unfortunately for those dreading the day, that easy section lasts all of just 5kms. The Gavia hits them hard with just barely enough miles in the legs to raise a bead of sweat. It could be frantic for those 5kms too as those with break ambitions and KOM jersey ambitions fight to get away in front. Arredondo and Wellens could well go early, there are lots of points to be picked up over the first two climbs. 

The Gavia is 16.5kms at an average of 8%, hitting a max of 16%. Kilometres 2-8 average 8.8%, with the gradient rising to 10-12% between kilometre 6 and 7 and hits the max steepness here of 16%. We are sure to see the grupetto form early on this stage and a lot of riders could be in for a really tough day in the saddle. 15 switchbacks have to be negotiated on the way up. 

The gradient stays pretty consistent all the way up with it just easing slightly for the last 500m to just 6.4%! The road is narrow and rough in places and this is particularly important for on the way down - the descent is difficult and a lack of concentration could spell disaster early in this stage. The road improves to wider, better roads after Santa Caterina with 37km gone, and the rest of the descent down to the valley town of Bormio will be much faster. 

With 49km gone, they start up the Stelvio again, with no flat road in between to allow them to regroup or get their breath back. The Stelvio is the 'Cima Coppi' of this year's Giro, marking the prize for the highest climb of the race. The winner of the stage, including the Cima Coppi will be the winner of the Torriani Trophy. 

21.7kms at a testing average gradient of 7.1%, hitting a max gradient of 12% for 500m at the 10km point on the climb. It goes through seven tunnels and a whole host of switchbacks on the way up. The descent is also a difficult one on very narrow roads, testing the riders who are trying to get back on, and it will be a real challenge for those who are not great descenders to try to keep up for the 25kms that will go by in about 20 minutes. 

Once at the bottom of the valley they roll along for the best part of 23kms on flat to easy descents before starting up the final climb of the day from Coldrano with 116.6kms gone. The climb has several sections to it, with the opening 6.5kms a tough 8.5%, with sections over 10%. Then a little dip for a kilometre descent is followed a long section for about 9kms which averages between 6.5 and 7%. Then another little dip for a half a kilometre is followed by a section for a kilometre at 9.3%, maxing out at 12%. 

Then a slight respite for 3kms of flatness along the side of the artificial lake ahead of the final punishing kilometre which averages 9.1% and hits sections of 14% through the hairpin bends. The last 500m is done at an average of 9.5%, making it a real test of the best climbers all the way to the line. The final climb isn't the hardest but the combination of climbs before it means that we will probably only see about 20 guys starting the last climb and should only see a handful of guys tackle the last kilometre, possibly even a solo victor. 

Contenders and Favourites

This is going to be flat out from start to finish - The GC men will be pushing on from the Stelvio I reckon and it may even be that those who can descend well down from the Stelvio can gain a crucial advantage for the ascent to the finish. 

A break will probably go early and may well spend the best part of the day ahead of the GC men. Depending on just how hard the GC men race, there could well be the possibility that the break will make it all the way, or possibly just be caught in the last 10kms. The early break is bound to contain the likes of Arredondo and Pirazzi and Wellens who will be after the massive amount of points available on the first two climbs.

The Cat 1 climb of the Gavia awards 32pts to the first over and the Cima Coppi awards 40pts for the first over the highest point in this year's race. This competition is still wide open despite Arredondo's lead, as any one of the top 10 in the classification could take the lead tomorrow should they get in a break and Arredondo doesn't. 

So it should set it up for a frantic opening and we could see a large group of 10 or 20 go up the road early. Other possibles for the early break are Zardini and Rabottini, Ratto, Cunego, Jackson Rodriguez or Jonathan Monsalve. It will be interesting to see how many of the strong climbers try to get in that early break, as a good combination could well stay away to the end.

The chances are though that over such a short stage, and with Quintana eager for a stage win on a finish that suits him and AG2R looking to make up for Pozzovivo's off-day on Sunday, the chasers will keep them on a realtively tight leash. I can see them getting 6 or 8 minutes possibly over the Gavia, but as the main GC men will be starting to really push on to whittle things down on the Stelvio they could pull it back to 3-4 minutes by the time they start up the final climb to Val Martello. 

It's been a tough Giro for betting on so far and tomorrow's stage is no different - we could go with the breakaway candidates like above, but I think they will be caught in the last 10km or maybe even before that. One or two might try to get away before the catch but they'll be reeled in when the GC men start attacking each other like on Sunday. 

Nairo Quintana is the obvious favourite for the stage, I think he is getting stronger and fitter and he showed glimpses of what he is capable of when making some surges on Sunday. He was quoted as saying on the rest day "I'm getting past that flu, also the infection in my throat... that also takes energy out of you. The pain, too. I really hope that the rest day helps me to overcome it. At least, I'm feeling my legs better with every single day passing by, and I hope to fight for the podium, at least."

He looks like a rider who is still riding within himself and still not 100% confident though. He seems to go and then stop and look around a bit too much instead of pushing on, he left it too late to go after Aru and Uran on Sunday and just missed the bridge by a few seconds when Aru accelerated away and Rolland couldn't follow. Maybe it's all part of the bigger plan though and he knows where he will make the time up - possibly starting tomorrow, then the Zoncolan and the Mountain TT.

I think also that he made the mistake of underestimating Aru on Sunday and disrespecting him a little by doing so. If he had pushed on with Aru he could have made a lot more time up on Uran. I think the rest day will have done him good though to get over the last of his cold and get fit and healthy again. As others are possibly getting tireder and weaker, he looks like he is getting stronger, having saved energy as much as possible up until now. 

This last section is his terrain - the last kilometre at 10% average, with some very steep hairpin bends are perfect for his light frame after a tough day of climbing over 4300m. He is pretty short with the bookies, generally around 2/1 but is nearly 3/1 on Betfair and that is worth taking. But if you are concerned the break might stay, hold off until maybe the top of the Gavia to see who is in it and what sort of gap they have before deciding whether to back him or not. Of course, you are taking the risk that the break might not have a great composition or are not let get a big enough lead, and if so, Quintana will be 2/1 or shorter again. Late on Monday night someone put up a lay for £400 on Quintana at 7/2 and that was just too big to ignore, I took 4pts,  looking to lay back some in play around 5/2 or 2/1.

It's amazing how a stage win like Aru's on Sunday can suddenly change the way a rider is viewed and priced. Fabio Aru's victory was excellent on the face of it, but I think he took full advantage of a lack of respect from the other GC guys and the situation in hand with the shadow-boxing and watching each other. He rode extremely well to stretch things out, but when he attacked, it wasn't really an attack, more that a tired Rolland couldn't hold his wheel and he just rode away from him. Quintana was still trying to make his way up to the Uran/Rolland/Aru group so was unable to go with him. I don't think he will make that same mistake tomorrow and will treat Aru with a lot more respect. Aru could pull off another brilliant ride, but I can't see it to be honest - he should be well up there, but a monster day of climbing like tomorrow could find out the youngster and he may struggle come the last few kilometres. 7/1 is just too short for me though, he would have been 25/1 for this stage a few days ago. 

Uran put up a show of bravado on Sunday, taking the fight to Quintana and Co and showing them that he was not dead and buried yet. His attack was a little unexpected, but ultimately it cost him again as he lost more time to Quintana and Aru. I think we could see the same tomorrow. It is a day when team-mates will be very important as the Stelvio could be a real reducer and we could see the favourites hitting the last climb in a very small group of 20-30 at most. Whenever push has come to shove though, Uran has been on his own and it will be the same tomorrow I feel. He could lose another 30" to a minute tomorrow, more if Quintana really fires off up the mountain early. At 27/1 I can't be backing him at all.

Third favourite for the stage is Domenico Pozzovivo and we need to think about what happened him on Sunday. I have said before that he is a man that tends to disappoint when a lot is expected of him, and he did so again Sunday by missing out on the stage deciding scraps. It may have been that the long, flat fast run in to the last climb had tired him out more than some of the others, but he did recover a little and limit his losses to just over a minute, taking 12th place on the day. This stage is much more to his liking though, with hardly a flat mile of road along the route. I expect him to show a lot more of what he has to offer tomorrow and expect him to bounce back with the best up front. Having said that though there are talks he has a chest infection so he's a no bet for me.

Pierre Rolland has been very active and is definitely stage hunting but he seems limited in what he can do and doesn't have the stamina or the speed to go again once his initial attacks have been nullified. I think that he will be in the top 10 or even 6 on the stage again though but may find the Colombians a little too fast for him again.

Fabio Duarte made it a Fabio 1-2 on Sunday and he was unlucky not to take the stage. He rode brilliantly and I was really impressed by him - at 14/1 I think he could well podium again and he is worth a small bet each-way.

Philip Deignan made a brilliant effort on Sunday, despite not feeling brilliant as he admitted in his daily column on stickybottle.com. He showed though that his climbing legs are coming back and showed why Sky signed him after a series of excellent climbing performances last year in the States. He said in his diary piece that it has given him good confidence though ahead of the stages to come and he may well be still involved come the shake-up at the end of the stage.

Majka and Kelderman may find the going just a bit too tough again Tuesday as they did Sunday but I expect top 10 rides from them to protect their GC positions. Majka is still looking good for a podium finish, he just needs to ride steady and limit his losses if he gets dropped. I can't see Evans troubling the podium tomorrow though, he is struggling against the little guys. 

Recommendation:

Quintana - 4pts win at 7/2 on Betfair, look to lay back 1/3 at 2/1 in play. 

Fabio Duarte - 0.5pts each-way at 14/1 with William Hill or Skybet.

Philip Deignan - 0.3pts each-way at 50/1 with Paddy Power.

Match Bets