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Published on Saturday, 24 May 2014 17:12

Giro d'Italia St.15

Valdengo to Plan Di Montecampione

Sunday 25th May, 225kms 

A nice leisurely jaunt east along the Po valley past Milan, Monza and Bergamo is rudely interrupted with a brutal finish up to the 'Pantani Climb' of this year's race, the 1st Cat ascent up to the Plan di Montecampione. The stage is in memory of Pantani's win in 1998, the year he won the overlall and completed the Giro-Tour double.

Nico Roche put in a stunning ride on Saturday to give me a lot of excitement for my 90/1 bet on Betfair. I managed to lay out of my stake at 3/1 in play so had a very nice free bet on him going in to the last 8kms of the climb. Unfortunately he faded near the end but finished a very creditable 5th. There was so much happening up front it was hard to keep up with what was happening, and at one point it looked like Timmer, Pantano or Cataldo looked like winning the stage. But out of nowhere came Battaglin and from a mile back on the last bend he caught and passed Cataldo for a memorable Bardiani double. 

It was a good day for my lay of Uran at 4/5 that I put up last night, he looked to me to be in trouble a long way from the top of the climb and I called it that he was going to lose time today on Twitter with about 6km left in the stage. Almost as soon as I had said it PozzTana attacked and left him behind, immediately putting him and Evans in to the red. Kelderman and Aru did brilliantly though to stay close to the big (small) two and in fact when Quintana accelerated away in the last 300m Aru actually passed Pozzovivo for 16th place. 

It will be interesting to see tomorrow if Uran struggles again and loses more time when PozzTana go for it, it could well be a lot closer at the top tomorrow if he does. The market seems to think that Quintana is back on top now and have cut him to 11/10 favourite from 9/4 last night, with Uran drifting from 4/5 to 7/2 on Betfair. I could cover my lay of Uran now to hedge some of the bet back but I think I'll let it run as he could be 5/1 by tomorrow night and Quintana could be 1/2. 

The Route

Not much can be said about this route for what will probably be the first 5 hours of racing, it really will only be the last hour of racing that will be worth watching. It mainly takes place on wide and flat roads and if stage 14 had a route that could see a break staying away, I think this stage will not let a break get to the finish as we could see a spectacular battle on this final 20km. The only obstacles that the riders will face really for the first 200kms will be of the road furniture variety as they hurtle through urban sections. 

The start of the final climb up to Montecampione comes with 206.5kms gone and it is a climb that is split in to three sections of roughly 10kms, 4kms and 4kms again. The first 10kms is a steady climb at a pretty steep average gradient of 8/1%, with a max section of 12% around 7kms in. Then it flattens off a little for about 4kms, averaging only 3.8%, but then it kicks up again for the last 4kms, at an average of 8.7% and plenty of sections in the middle that are over 9%. 

The last 3kms average 8.7% with the section between 1.5km and 500m to go averaging 9.£%. The final straight is only 30m long on a 6.5m wide road. 

Contenders and Favourites

This looks like a finish where we will see a big battle between the little guys - it looks tailor made for the likes of Quintana (who clearly looks to be getting stronger and recovering from his cold), Pozzovivo and the likes. It should be fast and furious for the last 20km but I can see Movistar, AG2R and OPQS looking to just ride tempo and keep things under control for the first 15kms or so and it could all explode over the last 4kms. I think we could see a repeat of the finish today when PozzTana team up and attack off the front to put Evans and Uran under pressure again. I think they could take another 30" to a minute off Uran tomorrow who looked under real pressure today towards the finish.

There's a 10" bonus on the line though so I think today is Quintana day, in fact I am really hoping it is Quintana day because we have yet to see him really do his big thing because of accidents and illnesses. He showed today though that he is recovering well and coming to the boil right on time. I think he is a strong favourite for the win and is now a strong favourite for the overall.

I think he will win but he's a little short at 6/5. If you can get 6/4 or bigger on Betfair (which I am trying to get) it has to be taken. I can see Pozzovivo being closest to him but I can't see him beating him like today, he doesn't have the finish that Quintana has.

So who else could get involved? Well Cadel looked cooked today as did Uran, but maybe Uran was just on an off day and will recover by tomorrow as it is a steady day up until the last 20kms. But if the pressure is applied from the bottom of the climb by Movistar and AG2R like I expect it to then there might not be many left with 10km to go. 

Kelderman did very well today to stick close to the leaders, as did Majka and I think these two could be the closest to Pozztana again tomorrow. If I was to pick a candidate for the 3rd spot on the day, then I think a small each-way on Majka could be the bet at 20/1 each-way. He will have Nico Roche back in the pack tomorrow to do his protection job and he and Rogers can put Majka in a good position with a few kms to go. 

Recommendation:

Quintana - 4pts win at best price you can get, maybe take a price in running if a break gets a big lead. 

Rafal Majka - 0.5pts each-way at 20/1.

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