Details

Published on Wednesday, 09 May 2018 22:34

Giro d'Italia St 6

Caltanisetta - Etna

Thurs 10th May, 164kms 

The final of the three stages on Sicily is definitely the most challenging with a trip up Mount Etna again, but this time they tackle it from an entirely new direction, all the way to the Etna Astrophysical Observatory.

The 2017 Giro also saw them head up Mount Etna, where they took the usual run to Rifugia Sapienza, which peaks out at 1892m on the south side of Mount Etna. This route comes in from the west side, and although the final categorised climb is given as 15kms long, they will have been climbing for almost 40kms from the bottom to the top of Etna.

Jan Polanc managed to survive from the breakaway to take a shock win on the stage, with the headwinds on the climb preventing any moves of note from the GC favourites. Only Ilnur Zakarin made a move in the closing stages and finished 2nd, with Geraint Thomas leading home the GC group 10" later.

In terms of approach, they couldn't have been much more different, as they started on the north coast, ran along it for 55kms before turning south and up and over the Cat 1 Portella Femmina Morta that rose to 1500m over 33kms. They then went around the west of Mount Etna before climbing it from the south side. This time they come from the west, and the forecast is interesting.. there will be a north-westerly wind, so coming at them from their left side for most of the day as they head towards Etna, and will be a tail-wind for some of the course. The last 5kms will have a slight cross-tail wind though. It is also forecast to rain there tomorrow, with the highest likelihood of rain being in the early afternoon.

This weather will make it interesting on two fronts - first, the break has a good chance with that tail wind for some of the day. The rain might make it sketchy in the bunch, so they might not be able to go full gas either. And the tail-wind for the last 5kms or so will help tired breakaway candidates if they have a slender lead. And the other front is that with no major head-wind to speak of, will we see a lot more attacking this year? We could see a flurry of attacks in the last 5kms, and if the break is reeled in on time, it will be all-out war for the stage win. 

Stage 5 Review

Boring stage, exciting finish.. a break with Ryan Mullen in it was always going to be hard to reel in, and so it proved, with the last remaining member of the break reeled in with just 3.5kms to go. It was another frantic finish, another stage affected by a crash and another day with the same riders up there as I thought it might be. So we finally landed a winner with Enrico Battaglin, he did exactly what I thought he might based on his historical performances and how well he rode yesterday. The guys who tried to make a move on the steep part 1km out faded pretty quickly (Aru, Ulissi), and it was Gio Visconti who took up the sprint out of the final bend..

But Battaglin was positioned perfectly through the final kilometre, George Bennett did indeed do a perfect job for him as I hoped he would.. and there was no one came close to Battaglin once he kicked. Visconti held on for 2nd and Goncalves pipped Schachmann on the line for 3rd.

Very annoying to lose out on the 40/1 e/w 3rd place with Schachmann, but he was phenomenal again, coming back from the crash like a man possessed and going straight to through the pack to fight out the sprint.. He said afterwards that he had to go wide on the final bend, otherwise he'd have been closer.. He is a superstar in the making and will win a stage in this race or another Grand Tour some time soon.. it's picking which day is going to be the challenge! 

Got it wrong with Modolo and Bennett, but I think we were also maybe unlucky with LL Sanchez not to see him involved in a finish like that, he was made stop and pull Lopez after he went off the road and in to the grass on a bend with about 11kms to go. Yates was impressive yet again with 5th, Wellens just wasn't able to sprint as I thought he might not, and Pozzo was impressive too in the finale today, coming back from the crash with ease (thanks to team-mates) and was prominent at the finish, taking 9th in the end. 

Yates bust the matchbet with Konrad, but the double and treble both won to add some more P in the PnL, a net return of 6.6pts on the day, making it nearly +10 in the last 3 days.. Slowly, slowly catchy monkey, but hopefully we can land a big one soon and start to pull ahead.

Froome looked under pressure up the final hill, he seemed to be struggling to just hang on to the peloton, but he recovered, thanks to Henao to finish 33rd, and although they were scattered all over the road, he and 42 other riders were given the same time. A small gap and he could have lost another 10-15" today. Poels was their best finisher again, but outside the top 20, and Kiryienka, Puccio, DDLC, Elissonde and Knees all lost time again today. I'm tempted to back Poels e/w now at 66/1, if Froome does fall away we might see Poels take up the mantle.. 

The Route

Another interesting stage, one that starts with a 10kms descent that should see a furiously fast pace on the run in to the first uncategorised climb of the day that actually takes them up to the first intermediate sprint at Enna. They are climbing for almost 19kms by the time they pass the first intermediate, so it's likely that we'll see the break take the points. 

The road then rolls along for more or less the next 45kms, then after 70kms starts to descend and all in all they descend for almost 55kms to the foothills of Etna, with a few kick ups along the way to break things up. They start climbing with 39kms to go, first hitting an uncategorised climb of 14kms at 3.4%, then a little descent for 3kms, before starting the climb to Etna proper. A 14km climb just to get them warmed up!

The climb to Etna is a Cat 1, given as 15kms exactly at 6.5% average, but there are sections that reach 8, 9 and up to 12-15% in places. It does ease back to 4.7% average for the last 1500m though, so if we do get a GC men's selection coming to the finish together then it will turn in to who can sprint the best. 

Contenders and Favourites

The last time up here, last year, was a bit of a damp squib.. No attacks of note due to the headwind, only Ilnur Zakarin could be bothered and he only picked up a handful of seconds. All the others were happy to ride in echelon formation in to the headwind and keep their powder dry for another time. Will we see more of the same again tomorrow? Well, it looks like we might not get so much of a headwind this time, the worst bit in the run-in should be the section from about 9kms to 5.5kms to go.. after that it's a tailwind home..

So if you can attack just before the 6km to go area, are strong enough to pull out a little gap in the headwind, others behind might be reluctant to chase.. And then when you get to 5kms to go you'll have the tailwind and it could held breakers stay away, if strong enough. 

Starting with the GC candidates though, what we have seen so far is that Chris Froome is not 100% yet, losing more time on that finish on stage 4 on Tuesday. We've seen him lose small amounts of time on early stages in the past of course, only to come roaring back later in the race, but is this time different? Is the pressure getting to him? Is the crash affecting him a little? Whatever it is, if you backed Dumoulin to win with me at 5/2 pre-race, you can be happy enough with that for now, he's in to 6/4 on Betfair, or just 11/10 with the bookies. He has also been chopped to just 8/11 from our 7/4 to not finish in the top 3, looks like the odds compilers think something is amiss too..

But it would be just like him to suddenly explode in to life here and take time back off his rivals. I wouldn't be surprised to see him spin the washing machine legs up to 1400rpm late in the stage, with maybe 3kms to go on the 7% section. But if it's anything like what he did at the ToTA, then he won't be going far.. it was all spin and no power. 

Tom Dumoulin will be comfortable enough on this climb you'd expect, he's well capable of grinding up 6-7% gradients. The section at 12% in the middle might be hard for him, but it's short. I am not sure Sky will be going full gas here with Froome maybe not at 100%, and also, several of the team like Kiryienka, Ellissonde and Knees have been losing time every day.. Maybe they are all focused on one goal of saving energy for when it matters, but it's worrying for the team that they are losing time like that. 

Sunweb probably won't take up the pulling either, they don't need to do that I think, and they will be looking to save energy for future battles too. Sam Oomen will be up there to help him, maybe Ten Dam and Haga, but Dumoulin will be mostly just following wheels and marking, and maybe will try something in the last kilometre or so. He's not the worst sprinting uphill against guys like this so he might fancy taking some time bonuses. 

Rohan Dennis also will just follow, but he'll be following his team-mates who will probably be the ones doing most of the pulling. Roche, De Marchi etc are looking ok and they will probably just set a steady tempo rather than a killer one. He too could pop out to try to take bonus seconds near the end, he's got a fast finish on him too, being from a track background. And his climbing looks to be improving as part of this 'five year plan' to make Dennis a Grand Tour contender that he and his coach have been working on. He looked good in the ToTA, and possibly the loss in the recent TTs is as a result of him changing his physiology to make him more suited to climbing. 

Thibaut Pinot is one to watch though I think. He is looking really good and sits just 34" off the race lead. He is good at finishing on stages like this, be it from a late attack or from a reduced group sprint, we've seen him do that in stage 20 of the Giro last year and in the ToTA also last year and this year. A win and a small time bonus could see him come right in to the top 3 reckoning and I wouldn't be surprised if he tried to make his move early in the race while others are still trying to break themselves in, he comes here in top shape after the ToTA. The lower gradient of around 4.7% in the closing metres will suit his sprint well. 

Miguel Angel Lopez has lost plenty of time already, he now sits almost 2 minutes down on Dennis and Dumoulin, and that's quite a gap, he only sits 7th in the young riders classification, bit worrying if you backed him at just 1/5! But we know he'll make up time hand over fist from once he gets going in the mountains on the guys above him, but physcologically, maybe he needs to make up time sooner, rather than later. He probably will attack on this climb, maybe on the steep parts with 5kms to go just as it becomes a tail-wind, but with a steady grind to the line and a whole lot of pretty fresh guys still there, he'll probably be reeled in. He may be better off waiting for late attacks from others, bridging to them and jumping again.

I think we have to bring Simon Philip Yates in to the equation also, seeing as he seems to be riding well and currently sits in 3rd place, just 17" off top spot. He has a very powerful climbing squad here to look after him and tee up the late attack, Juul-Jensen, Kreuziger, Chaves, Haig and Nieve will be a strong train for him. We could see them take up the pulling in the closing kilometres again, with Yates in 3rd/4th wheel, ready to go when the time is right. He could attack late, he could win a sprint from a small group of guys that pull away, he should be right in the mix too I think. 

What about Enrico Battaglin? Can he hang in there? Well when he won in the Giro in 2015 it was on Oropa.. a similar sort of climb, it may be shorter at 11.7kms, but it's a lot steeper.. And the legs he has shown in the last two days shows he is in great shape.. And the team he has with him is going well and should support him if he's there - Bennett, Gesink and Bouwman. And he's 40/1... that's tempting enough for me. 

Fabio Aru - hasn't showed anything to me so far this year to say he'll ride away from them. Domenico Pozzovivo on the other hand looks to be flying at the moment, he chased down Ulissi today without any effort at all it seems, in trying to tee up Visconti for the win, and it almost paid off.. And the way he came back to the peloton was pretty impressive too, he charged up the hill and then went to the front and started charging up the final hill before chasing down the attacks. He will be right there at the front again tomorrow, but I think he will find it hard to get away from this lot with the top 10 so tightly packed, and he'll not be winning a sprint against a lot of these guys.

Gio Visconti could be a break man or could hang in there as well, he might have some backers at 66/1. Max Schachmann was sensational again today, but what will he be like with the road going upwards for nearly 40kms? Not great based on his performances in recent years, I can't see him staying with the leaders tomorrow. What about Michael Woods? I think the finish isn't steep enough for him. Tim Wellens is very short at just 18/1, I'm not sure he'll hang in there all the way up, and it may be that if he comes under pressure, rather than put himself in to the red he might hold back and save his legs for another day. 

Esteban Chaves could well be playing the team game again for Yates, but if he can attack a little earlier on the climb, and is let go while others watch Yates, he could well skip away and might not be pulled back.. but I'm not prepared to risk it. Valerio Conti was superb a few days ago, but just fell short, maybe he'll hang in there again and give it a go with 4 or 5kms to go again. But it will be hard to get away from these guys as I've been saying above. I'd love to see Ben O'Connor go well, I'm hoping he just paces himself and hangs in there though and takes time on the white jersey candidates around him

The break could have a chance of making it for the first time in this Giro as I said earlier, the tail-wind will help their cause. And it may be that we see the first large breakaway of the race too, as lots of guys will fancy their chances on this one. With two intermediate sprints in the first 60kms, we could well see the likes of Viviani and Modolo try to get in the break, only to ease off once they hit Etna, Viviani to build on his lead, Modolo to chip away at it if he really wants to try to win it. 

But it's the climbers ad strong breakaway men we need to think about and a few that I think might get involved are: Jarlinson Pantano, as he has lost over 10 mins already and this could be a nice stage for him. Enrico Barbin will be interested in going again for the KOM points maybe, but he'll be better off waiting for a day where there are points on the road rather than at the finish, it's a slim chance he'll claim those points tomorrow.

Same goes for Giulio Ciccone maybe, he'll get a chance later in this race to go for it, I think he'd just be wasting energy tomorrow. Mikel Nieve might try to go in the break, it would mean the onus would not be on Mitchelton to chase, but not only that, he might attack on the climb too if he is still with them coming to the last 5kms or so. Niklas Eg is a very good young climber, but it might be the wrong sort of stage for him, and Hugh Carthy is another who could get in to the stage and just grind up that hill at the end, he's not a super climber but has lots of power and could hold on. 

This is going to be a very interesting stage.. it's the first major climb of the race, and we'll soon find out if the likes of Froome and Aru are really going well or badly, and whether the likes of Dumoulin, Dennis or Pinot are really going to be involved at the business end of this race. Miguel Angel Lopez has work to do, Pozzovivo needs to show he has the killer instinct and Yates has a chance to take pink. I think Pinot has a big chance to punch the strongest at the end of the climb here, but also Battaglin, if he can hang in there will be the strongest sprinter there and will be hard to beat based on what we've seen. A few lottery shots for the break too, but mostly a day to observe than get stuck in. 

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Enrico Battaglin at 40/1 with Skybet

0.5pts e/w on Thibaut Pinot at 15/2 with Skybet

0.3pts e/w on Jarlinson Pantano at 66/1 with Bet365

0.2pts e/w on Mikel Nieve at 100/1 with 365

Matchbets

Dennis to beat Geniez, Bennett to beat Meintjes and Konrad to beat Schachmann - 2pts at 2.2/1 on 365

Pozzovivo to beat Dumoulin - 2pts at 5/6

Battaglin to beat Ulissi - 2pts at 5/6

Kreuziger to beat Henao and Lopez to beat Froome - 2pts at 1.3/1