Details

Published on Thursday, 24 May 2018 21:32

Giro d'Italia St 19

Venaria Reale to Bardonecchia

Friday 25th May, 184kms 

The penultimate stage in the mountains, the final summit finish, the second last chance to make a difference to the top 10 order. And what a beast they face today with over 3,500m of vertical climbing - it should be explosive.

Can anyone blow this up like Alberto Contador or Alejandro Valverde would if they were here racing? Can anyone go from afar and put Yates under more pressure? If ever there was a stage that something like that could happen, then this is it, with the Colle Delle Finestre in the middle of the stage, with the 8kms of unsurfaced road at the top, climbing 1,700m in 14kms. From the top there are less than 74kms to go and they still have to get over the Sestriere and the final climb to Bardonecchia, a 9% brute that will find out a few weaker legs. 

It has been used twice in recent years in the Giro, Mikel Landa leading over the summit on the 20th stage in 2015, taking the Cima Coppi of the race, on a day that Fabio Aru won, taking a solo victory to the finish in Sestriere. If it's anything like that stage it will be epic, it was a spectacular stage with incredible racing all day.. jump through the video below to see the gravel roads, the misty and mythical summit of the Finestre and the climb to Sestriere.. 

It also featured in the 2011 stage 20, where Vasil Kiryienka led over the top on a stage that also finished in Sestriere, he won the stage by almost 5 minutes and dedicated the win to his Movistar team-mate Xavier Tondo who had died just before the Giro when he was crushed by his garage doors when heading out for a training ride.    

Stage 18 Review

Wow! Well we didn't expect that finish after what was the most boring stage of the race probably. Simon Yates finally showing he is human after all and losing touch with a surging Dumoulin, Froome and Pozzovivo in the last few kilometres. We thought it might be a stage finish that would suit the power men, and that's how it turned out, with Dumoulin first putting him under pressure and then Froome counter-punching when Dumoulin eased back. 

I think Pozzovivo did Dumoulin a big favour today, jumping after Froome when he attacked, as Dumoulin just jumped on his wheel and was dragged up to Froome, when no one else could go after him. Yates lost time, and suddenly he is looking vulnerable again. He has popped from 1.25 on Betfair this morning to 2.24 this evening, as backers start to panic that he could blow it. Dumouilin is now the 10/11 favourite again, something I did not expect this morning. Maybe it's time to have a little saver on Yates to hedge against the 5/2 we have on Dumoulin? It does look like a two-horse race. 

As for the bets, of course the break makes it the one day we are not on, and Lopez does what I thought he might do and accelerate away from all the GC guys to take the GC 'win'.. Shame it was for 11th place though, it would have been nice to land a 12/1 winner. As it was, we just about broke even as the matchbets saved us, but Rusty Woods left us down from making a profit, he went missing again and finished 26 MINUTES down. He gave up on today's stage, they seem to be making mutterings that they are all-in for tomorrow's stage, but I can't see it, they really are pretty inept as a team. 

The Route

This stage is going to be wild.. zig-zagging from Venaria Reale westwards through valleys and over mountains towards the finish in Bardonecchia, they climb over 3,500m over 184kms. They are basically climbing for the first 49kms, getting steeper as they go over the Cat 2 Colle del Lys after 48.9kms, then a quick and winding descent back down to the valley before a dragging road takes them 20kms further up the valley to the next KOM of the day which starts in Susa, the start point of stage 20. 

The Colle Delle Finestre is a monster - 18.5kms at an average of 9.16%, it rises at an almost straight-line gradient all the way to the top, zig-zagging up the hill through hair-pin bends. The first 9kms are on tarmac, while the last 9 km is a gravel road, all the way to the summit. Twenty-nine hairpins are tucked in less than 4 km over the first part of the climb (45 hairpins overall until the summit).

The gravel is pretty smooth mostly, but can be rough in parts and stone punctures are a real possibility.. that's when it's dry.. but the Finestre is still mostly covered in snow, so the surface is pretty muddy, it will just add to the drama! The descent is very technical as the roadway is narrow and initially unprotected, up to Pian dell’Alpe. 

After 122kms, at Pragelato the road starts rising again as they climb towards Sestriere, and although it's long at 16.2kms, it's not too difficult, but does get up in to the 6-7% gradients in the last 4kms. It's a much tougher climb at the end of a stage, they might just tempo up this one in preparation for the final climb. Another long 24km descent back down to the valley takes them to the foot of the final climb of the Bardonecchia. 

This final climb is a much steeper one, although it isn't too long at 7.25kms it does average 9%, as it cuts its way up the hill through nine hair-pin bends. The first 2kms average 10.2%, the last 2kms average close to 10%, with the last 750m hitting 11.5% average and the last 200m over 12%, and the final straight is just 50m long. 

Contenders

So today's result really shakes things up - Yates looks vulnerable, so the other GC guys are sure to go for the jugular. Dumoulin is looking strong and senses blood, he was full of enhusiasm and confidence after the finish, whereas Yates cast a nervous and tired figure. Froome has looked sprightly, but not only that, so has Woet Poels and I wouldn't be surprised to see them try something early in this stage. Maybe not as early as the Finestre, but possibly on the climb to Sestriere, and then charge down the descent at the other side, putting Yates and his team under pressure ahead of the final climb. 

The opening climb should see a strong break go again and they will be hoping that there will be no chasing from behind. Hopefully, you either make the break or you don't when it goes, and if you don't you stop attacking and chasing and settle back in to the bunch for the day. That was the problem with the stage to Iseo, everyone wanted to be in the break, the road wasn't too difficult, so there were attacks after attacks after attacks and the race never got a chance to really settle down, so the breaks up the road were constantly doomed. 

This first climb starts easy enough, but suddenly gets much harder after 35kms, rising at nearly 6% for the next 6kms. It will be fast and furious probably for the first 35kms, the breaks might form and be brought back again, but it should finally go on that steeper part. Who knows, with the day that's ahead of them, and not too many willing to get involved in a stage they know they can't win, the break might go inside the first 10kms and they could have 6 or 7 mins going over the top of the first climb. 

I think a strong break will go with guys who have been waiting for a stage like this. M-S are probably not going to chase, they'll be saving their men for when Yates needs them on the Finestre or Sestriere or in the valleys in between in case there's a split of some sort. Bahrain and FDJ just don't really have the man-power to drive it from early in the stage and will also be looking to make a difference on the final climb to try to help their men move up the top 10.

Astana will probably get one or two in the break, so they're not going to chase, they'll be happy for others to bring it back maybe to let Lopez have another go on the final climb. Only Sky might be interested in chasing, as they have the man-power and the desire to try to tire out M-S and Yates, so that Froome can attack him on the final climb. 

Breakers then - spin the lottery wheel.. Expect the usual suspects to get involved - Alessandro De Marchi has been involved in almost every break attempt lately and he gave it another real good go on the road to Iseo, but it wasn't to be. But he's looking very strong, he took a day off today and he is sure to try to go to take something for BMC out of this race, which has been a disaster for them really, not what they would have wanted following the death of the BMC owner. 

His partner that day to Iseo was Luis Leon Sanchez of course and he has also been involved in nearly every break, very often being the very reason a break goes clear because he is so strong at the moment. He is sure to try to get away on a stage like this, he has the power to drive the break at the start on that hill and will have the power later in the race for the big climbs to come. He and ADM seem to have formed a good relationship, so if you see one go, the other will probably go too. 

He loves a 'monumental' stage like this, he'll be tageting the 'Cima Coppi' and I think we have to be on him again. Who knows, he might just kick-start his KOM assault here too.. there are 102pts up for grabs on the stage after all and that would shoot him right up the rankings, especially as Yates took none today.

Ben Hermans has been on the attack to try to take something for the poor Israeli team, but he didn't have the power to stay with De Marchi and Sanchez on a gentle rise with about 25kms to go, not a good sign for a stage as tough as this one.

Gulio Ciccone - does he go in the break or stay with the GC men? You'd think he'll be in the break as he'll be going after the KOM jersey, he sits in 2nd place on 52pts, 39pts behind Yates, but with the Cima Coppi and the other 22pts out on the road, he could move right up beside him, even if he gets outdone at the finish after putting in a lot of effort to get the KOM pts. He had no interest in going full gas at the finish today, he called it a day at the bottom of the climb with Aru, saving the legs for tomorrow. 

He's 11/8 for the KOM, and given the way this stage will probably play out and with two more Cat 1s on the next stage the break might take as well, I'd rather be on that than back him for the win here. I'm having a small 2pt bet on him to take that, he should be involved tomorrow. He is 11/8 with Will Hill but they boost it up to 1.47/1 and that's not bad, he's 6/5 with Bet365

Fabio Aru - he's now 45 mins down, so cleared for take off, and we saw him sitting in the grupetto smiling today with Ciccone as the GC men tore up the hill. He is a man transformed after the rest day, putting in an amazing TT on Tuesday and then going on the attack with a flat 60kms still to go the next day.. who knows what he will do tomorrow, will he hang back and go on the attack maybe on the Finestre? Will he go from the gun and try to win the KOM jersey too? He's just 11/2 for the stage, 7/1 for the KOM, a stunning turn of events for a man that was in all sorts of trouble less than a week ago and was looking to abandon the race, only to be persuaded to stay by the team.. 

And there are loads of other guys who could go in the break.. Will Robert Gesink finally give us a chance to cheer him on? He looked strong today and with Bennett just outside the top 10, maybe Gesink will go up the road to be there to help Bennett later on, or maybe they will try to see if he can land another stage victory for the team. He's 22/1, worth a small win bet. 

But with so much up for grabs now in the GC, it's going to be frantic tomorrow.. M-S will be under attack from early on, but they will probably be happy to let a break go and try to take the bonus seconds. Sunweb, Sky and Bahrain are going to go for it, and that might just play right in to the hands of Miguel Angel Lopez again.. He is getting better, and better as this race goes on and he was superb today, he took 30" out of the other favourites in the last few kilometres, which they managed to close down to 15" on the line as they were absolutely gunning for it with Yates struggling. I think he will sit in and let them scrap it out until the bend just before 3kms to go, attack hard and won't be seen again.. 

Tom Dumoulin will find this a bit harder than the finish today, it's almost twice the gradient, but he will like that it's a pretty steady gradient with not too many hairpins near the top, he'll be able to just engage the diesel engine again. Domenico Pozzovivo was very impressive today I thought, he looked fast and smooth and if there is anyone who could go with Lopez, Pozzo could be it, he has a top 3 place to preserve. The 12% last part will suit him too more than the likes of Dumoulin and Pinot.

Speaking of Pinot, he'll be disappointed he was unable to go with Pozzo and TomDum today, especially after all the work done by Reichenbach for him earlier on the final climb. But the warning signs were there in the TT, his legs seem to be fading, I can't see him getting away to win this.

And what about the Sky boys... Poels was superb today again, I think it was a good shout to have a small bet on him, he attacked away, but the nature of what happened behind him and in front of him meant that he was in no-mans land. He still rode very strong at the finish, so strong that he took a wrong turn and still finished ahead of Yates, just a few seconds behind Froome. He is going to drill it for Froome you'd think again tomorrow, as I said already, I wouldn't be surprised to see them try something on the Finestre, or Sestriere, and then power on down the descent to the final climb where Poels will bury himself for as long as he can to tee up an attack from Froome. 

Froome's attack today came after he had come back to the Dumoulin, Pozzo and Yates group, he had been dropped with the sudden acceleration of Dumoulin, but just rode his own pace back up to them.. then went straight past them on the attack. He caught them by surprise a little, and managed to ditch all bar TD and Pozzo, but it wasn't the searing attack we've seen from him before. I think Pozzo and TD will be able to mark him again tomorrow, there's a lot on the line with them. 

And what Yates will we see tomorrow? The super-strong attacker with all the swagger, or the struggling, fading stressed-out guy we saw today? It didn't look good today, not only did he blow up after Dumoulin's surge, but he couldn't even stay with the Carapaz group that he was with and he limped home almost 30" down. If he is showing any signs of weakess tomorrow they will look to crush him, Froome might even see it as a way of finishing on the podium, if they can really break Yates, he could lose minutes on the final climb.. with another day in the mountains to come still..

But if he just had a bad day today and recovers for tomorrow, then this stage finish will be perfect for him and we might be kicking ourselves that we didn't take the huge looking 14/1 that was available on him.. But I think he'll struggle tomorrow and the 7/4 on him NOT to finish in the top 3 is almost tempting me.. 

If it does come down to a top 5 guys battle again, I can't see the likes of Bennett, Konrad, Carapaz etc staying with them again, they are just a different level and they will be probably filling the minor honours. 

Whatever happens, it's going to be another amazing stage in the Giro I think.. Let's hope Tom Dum does the business for the GC, Luis Leon does it for the long-lost KOM bet and I think if it comes back together, MA Lopez is the man to be on. 

Recommendations:

1pt win on Gulio Ciccone to win the KOM at 6/4 with Will Hill (boosted)

0.5pt win on Robert Gesink at 22/1

0.3pts win on Luis Leon Sanchez at 200/1 with Bet365

2pts win on Miguel Angel Lopez at 7/2 on Betfair

Matchbets

O'Connor to beat Dennis and Poels to beat Reichenbach - 3pts at evens

Add Lopez to beat Froome to make it a 2.1/1 treble - 2pts on that 

Konrad to beat Bilbao - 2pts at 5/6