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Published on Wednesday, 24 May 2017 21:32

Giro d'Italia St 19

San Candido to Piancavallo

Friday 26th May, 191kms 

The penultimate stage in the mountains, the second last chance to make time before the TT.. a day that is spent mostly descending is suddenly punctuated by a steep wall for the last 14kms, we're sure to see a real GC war.  

This climb to Piancavallo is another climb steeped in Giro history, with Marco Pantani stamping his mark on it in 1998, winning in his usual and spectacular fashion, attacking near the base of the climb and riding almost the whole stage solo (below).

Despite his powerful attack and seemingly putting the others in to the red, he only won the stage by 12" from Zulle and Tonkov, two more dopers filling out the podium. The first 6kms of the final climb is where you have to make your move if you want to drop the weaker climbers, 6kms at 9.4% will shake the weak links out for sure. Then it's a matter of powering along the next section which is 5kms at 7.5% trying to extend your lead, before just holding the gap as best as possible as it starts to east up in the last 4kms. It looks a climb made for Quintani, I have visions of him emulating the Italian hero and flying to victory and the pink jersey on this stage.. 

What a disappointment that was today from Nairo and Movistar, again. In fact, it was more than disappointing, it was pathetic. They had riders all over the place, Nairo was queued up to attack and he went with 53kms to go.. But the attack lasted about 2 minutes and he was bought back like a junior racing against men. And the same for his later attacks, Dumoulin was laughing at him..

And the same from Nibali, TomDum was laughing at them both at the end of the stage and he now most definitely has a firm grip on the jersey as they head in to the final 3 stage. And once again punters were left reeling when the hot favourite for the stage Mikel Landa failed to deliver, being beaten by 80/1 shot and forgotten man Tejay Van Garderen. This comes hot on the heels of Rolland taking the first win for Cannondale in over 2 years at odds of 33/1 and was yet another surprise result in this nightmare of a Giro.

It's been impossible to get right and I'm sorry that we haven't yet landed a winner. I don't think I have ever gone so long without picking a winner and I'm not happy at all about it. Thankfully the stakes on the winner market today were kept small, I was right to fear for what might happen with the favourites. 

Thibaut Pinot rounded out the podium, as he and Pozzovivo decided they had enough of Dumoulin and Quintana's bullshit and rode away from them in the last kilometre. Zakarin, Kruijswijk and Mollema also showed some good form, coming home just after Pinot and Pozzovivo. And Jan Hirt rode one of the rides of the day to take 5th, he had been in breaks all day, just wasn't able to stay with TVG and Landa.

The Route

They head south-east and descend for most of the day, but turn right and head east with about 60kms to go. It will be a slight head-wind of 7mph for most of the day as they're heading south, but a slight cross/head-wind for the last section, with a tail wind up the final climb to Piancavallo.

They start climbing straight from the start though from San Candido, a stage town for the first time in the history of the Giro., and climb the Cat 3 Kreuzberg after 13.9kms. They then drop down for more or less the next 79kms, bar a little lift up to Sappada for the intermediate sprint with 47kms to go. 

Next comes the Sella Chianzutan categorised summit (right), a Cat 2 climb of 11.7kms at an average of 5.5%, but that's desceptive as there is an easy sectin of 3.8% in the first 5kms and even a downhill section, but then it gets steeper with parts at 7-8.8%, and the last 6.5kms average 6.5%.

Along the descent, the route passes through a few porphyry-paved tunnels (well surfaced and well lit), and then runs along flattish, rolling roads for the next 60kms until Aviano, where the final climb begins. The stage finishes with a climb to Piancavallo, as it did in 1998, when the stage was won by Pantani. The first 10kms of the climb go up at very steep gradients - around 9% and topping out at 14%. With 10.9 km to go, the road levels out and even descends a little, then climbs up again (passing through an avalanche gallery) with milder gradients (max. 8%). The final kilometre is quite sinuous, still climbing slightly. The home stretch (100m in length) sits on a wide, mild bend, on 6.5-m wide asphalt road, and has a 1.5% uphill gradient.

Contenders

Even though the bookies have priced it up like the GC men are going to be fighting it out, I'm not so sure that's how it's going to turn out! This looks like a stage for the break again to me, I find it hard to imagine that the GC teams will want to chase hard all day what with the day they had today and with Saturday's stage over the Monte Grappa still to come. They're not going to want to race hard chasing along flat roads and rolling little hills wearing themselves out for nothing. Let the break go and then let their leaders fight it out on the final climb. I really can't see anything other than the break taking the win, so will try to just scatter a bunch of bets at big(ish) odds around to see if we can get a few in the break. 

Where do you even start again? Do you go with the guys who have been on the attack a lot as they are clearly are some of the strongest, or do you try to find some guys who have been hiding away in the last few days and were waiting to target this one? There are probably about 50 guys who are possible candidates for the break and I wouldn't be surprised to see something like we got two days ago when a massive group gets away.. Time is running out and DSs and sponsors are getting anxious. 

Although it's an uphill start to the stage, the first hill isn't that hard.. Ok, it goes on for nearly 14kms but it's a very gentle gradient, with the last 7kms of the climb, the steeper part, averaging just 4.9%. So a big break could go.. and from there they are descending for more or less 80kms with just the little kick up to the sprint at Sappada to break up the high speeds. We could see a split on the Cat 2 Sella Chianzutan which comes with 85kms to go, and that might not be a bad thing, as then the stronger guys can push on the rolling roads for the next 70kms or so until they hit the foot of the climb to Piancavallo, from where they can fight out the finish. 

Mikel Landa, Omar Fraile and Luis Leon Sanchez look obvious picks again, especially as there are relatively easy points on offer over the Cat 2 and 3 climbs. But Landa has had a double blow now with two narrow defeats and  may well be saving himself for Saturday, it'll be a long, hard day of rolling before he gets to the final climb tomorrow and I am not sure he will need that after today's efforts. Fraile looked frail today, he was in the break and active, but then disappeared and came home over 32mins down.

Luis Leon could be the man for a stage like this though, he didn't get involved today, but might try to snaffle the points tomorrow. The crazy thing is, if he takes the two climbs tomorrow and then gets in the break Saturday without Landa and take the two Cat 1 climbs on the day, he wins the competition by 1pt! It's a pretty long shot for sure, but we've seen guys go on points raids late in races before and steal the jersey's off their rivals. 

Do we go back to the Rui Costa well again? If it is a big group again we could well see UAE with 2-3, possibly even 4 riders in it like on Wednesday. Guys like Mohoric and Conti are riding really well and would be good assistance in the flat parts leading up to the final climb. I fear that if there are a few good climbers in the group they may make him suffer on the 9.4% section at the bottom, but if he can hang in there he definitely would have a chance at the finish as it flattens out on the last kilometre. I think he has got his tactics wrong twice now, something that is disappointing for a guy I always admired for his tactics and guile, but he has another chance to put that right tomorrow, and he clearly is one of the strongest at the moment in that sub-GC group of guys. 

Ruben Plaza was strong again today, but unfortunately he was not let go do his own thing, babysitting Yates again. They have priced him at only 25/1 for tomorrow's stage, but that's too short for me now, he was 66/1 today. Pierre Rolland is just 33/1 but I'm not sure he'll go again, although the final climb would suit him well. Michael Woods rode very well on Wednesday in support of Rolland, his problem is getting in the breaks, but he seems to be buzzing at the moment and could well get a chance tomorrow again, possibly if they can get Dombrowski or Villella in the break again. 

Laurens de Plus has been very active all race but has no reward for it,  but if he can get Eros Capecchi, Dries Devenyns or Iljio Keisse in to the break with him he might have a chance of going all the way this time. Diego Rosa has been riding ok but has been helping Landa at times, he could get a chance to ride for himself tomorrow. Hubert Dupont did well today to finish 18th and now is 18th in the GC but over 30 minutes down, could he get up the road maybe and try to take a stage? AG2R haven't had a great race so far, but Pozzo is in the top 6 and should be safe enough there, Dupont could be given some rope tomorrow. At 125/1 he's worth a small bet. 

As for the GC men if it comes back together? How can you trust Nairo at just 9/2? He could be anything again tomorrow, he could attack and leave them all behind on the Piancavalla, but the way he rode today, you'd doubt it. Dumoulin is probably going to be ok on this climb too, if he can get over the first 5kms that are over 9% then he should be fine for the rest of the climb and could even attack away from them all to make a point tomorrow.

Nibali looked limited today and I don't know if this finish suits him so well, and Pozzovivo and Pinot have shown themselves to be the strongest of the rest, Pinot in particular is one that I want to keep onside, I was impressed with him today at the finish and this last 2km run-in looks perfect for him to outsprint the rest. Kruijswijk, Mollema and Zakarin are going ok too, but I can't see how they win it unelss they go early on the climb while Nairo, Tom and Nibbles are squabbling again and they might get a gap that they hold on to. He's 16/1 with Paddy Power, that's worth an each-way. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Thibaut Pinot at 16/1 with PP

0.25pts each-way on Laurens de Plus at 100/1 with 365

0.4pts each-way on Luis Leon Sanchez at  33/1 with 365

0.25pts each-way on Hubert Dupont at 125/1 with 365

0.25pts each-way on Michael Woods at 80/1 with 365

Matchbets

Pinot to beat Dumoulin - 2pts at 6/5

Formolo to beat Reichenbach and Dupont to beat Kiserlovski - 2pts on the double at 11/8 with 365