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Published on Friday, 12 May 2017 00:40

Giro d'Italia St 8

Molfetta – Peschici

Sat 13th May, 189kms 

The 8th stage of the Giro starts in Molfetta for the very first time, and similar to stage 6 it's like a race of two halves with the first 84kms being completely flat and it kicks in to live later in the stage with a series of bumps and hills. 

An interesting stage thrown in just before a key stage on Sunday that takes them to the summit finish on Blockhaus. It looks relatively innocuous on paper but this could be a wild stage. First, 85kms along the coast with a cross/headwind coming at them from the right, then a Cat 2 climb, then a lumpy run along the exposed coast again, over a Cat 4 climb, while facing a headwind now. And then there's that wild finish in Peschici with a climb uphill for the last 1.5kms, the last 200m of which are at 10.5% gradient..  

So a snoozefest today that was finished off by the most exciting finish of the race so far. The narrow streets and tight bends did indeed cause some trouble, leading to Greipel moaning afterwards about rider safety, but I thought it was a great finish, and only a half a wheel separated the top 3. 

Gaviria finished like a train, easily going the fastest, but Quickstep didn't do their jobs right and he was left fighting on his own through the traffic in the last 100m.. he almost got pinned in against the barriers by Orica's leadout man who was dropping off (I think it was Mezgec) but flew the last 50m. Fair play to Ewan though, he deserved a bit of luck, and the decision by them to go down the left side of the road when Bora went down the right was what won him the stage as he got the best line through the final bend. 

We were unlucky with Bennett, it was another great sprint by him, just pipped for 1st, and 2nd in the last 5m. His stage win is coming I think, he needs to hang in there.. The e/w paid out though, as did the matchbet treble, so a small 3pt profit on the day. Nothing else to report really from the stage, Gibbons had another superb top 10 place though with 6th, and Vincenzo Nibali was up there sprinting, taking 10th place. Modolo and Ferrari came there for a while but then disappeared, and Greipel was exactly as I thought he might, the worst of the sprinters, as he had no team-mates around him in the last 500m. 

The Route

After leaving Molfetta they face an almost dead flat and straight road for 84kms, and you might think it could be a wild start with lots of break attempts trying to get away and failing for the first hour or so.. But so far in this race, breaks have just gone off the front each time almost straight away with no real battle.. But also with a cross/headwind coming in off the sea, some teams might look to put the hammer down early and maybe catch some off guard and force some splits. 

Suddenly, as they start to arch around the little bump that comes out of the 'calf' of Italy it gets a bit more intersting - after 84kms they pass the first intermediate sprint, and almost straight away start climbing the Cat 2 Monte Sant'Angelo. The climb takes them inland away from the coast for 10kms or so, with the road averaging 6.1%, tough enough that if the race starts to heat up we could say goodbye to the sprinters. But there's 90kms still to go though, so maybe it won't be full gas just yet. 

After an 18km descent on tight, narrow roads the next 24kms are lumpy, and include the Cat 4 climb of the Coppa Santa Tecla (3.6lkms at 6%), another chance to shake off a lot of guys, as the pace will be far hotter now with just 46kms to go. A flattish run along the coast sees them pass the second intermediate sprint with 29kms to go, then they enter the tricky finale. First they climb up over the Coppa del Fornaro, which is easier at just 3.6% for 5kms, but it goes in steps which are steeper in places.

They dive down the hill to the 3km to go mark, spend 1,500m on the flat before it kicks up again for the last 1,500m. It starts gently enough, around 3.6%, then rises to 6%, back to 3.4% before the final nasty 200m which average 10.5%. That sort of gradient is Mur de Huy steep, or the Mur de Bretagne which they rode over in the TDF in 2015, won by Alexis Vuillermoz from Dan Martin.. 

Contenders and Favourites

Once again, the same old mantra - break or not, break or not...? It looks like a good day for the break with Blockhaus the next day, the GC teams will be keeping their powder dry and climbing types who would ordinarily have been ordering their teams to chase hard for a lash at that finish might decide to reel it in a bit and wait for Sunday. But that is not to say that some climbers will not try to get in the break, maybe some will fancy their chances here a lot more than against what will probably be a GC charge up to Blockhaus. 

I'm looking at you Cannondale - and Michael 'Rusty' Woods in particular. If he can get in the break, this finish is perfect for him and I'm not sure many will be able to stay with him. And even he doesn't get in the break and it comes to a group sprint, I think he has a chance too - he showed he has good legs on stage 6 winning the bunch 'sprint', which actually annoyed me as I said, as I had already started planning this preview and he may have just knocked a few points off his price for tomorrow, for no reason... 

12th and 11th in FW the last two years, his only problem both times was inexperience and bad riding - last year getting boxed in when in a great position and this year going to the front too early and running out of puff. With a small group and less pressure from the likes of Valverde and Martin he might do better here, he got in a great position Thursday, despite almost running in to the back of the cars that were behind the Stuyven group as they turned in to their exit road!

He also finished 2nd last year in Milano-Torino, he should've won, but again inexperience cost him, that has a similar sort of profile for the majority of the climb. And it might be the day that Cannondale try to put a few in the break, he could have Kristian Koren or Alex Howes to help drag the break along and look after him, or maybe Rolland if he fancies going for the KOM points out on the road. But he's very short at just 15/2 with Bet365's early show, hopefully we get a bigger price somewhere else, I'd like bigger than 10/1. 

Speaking of KOM, it could be a day we see Omar Fraile strike out to try to pick up some cheap KOM points, there are 18pts on offer with the Cat 2 and the Cat 4 and if it looks like the break are going to stay away he'd have a good chance on this tough finish of out-sprinting some non-climber types.. And if it looks like they will be reeled in with 15-20kms to go then he can sit up and save his legs. Nathan Haas could have been one to go with him, but once again on Thursday he had a terrible day, finishing 4th last and said afterwards that he felt terrible again and hoped his legs come around soon.. so I'll leave him again until he shows signs of getting better. Natnael Berhane though could be one to try at 125/1, he sits 3'39" down on GC, so he might be given some freedom, and he was in good form in Romandie, finishing 4th on the stage to Champery behind Albasini and Ulissi. 

Who else can go in the break? Vincenzo Albanese is a young Italian rider in his first season in the pro ranks with Bardiani, but last year he took a number of fine wins, including the first stage of the Tour de l'Avenir on a similar stage to this with an uphill finish which he won from a small break he had been in all day. He also finished 2nd in stage 3 on an uphill finish. He also won the first stage of Oberösterreichrundfahrt on an uphill finish and in all took six victories last year. I'd love to see him get a chance to attack this finish from a break, he'd have a good chance at a massive price of 200/1

Sergey Lagutin of Gazprom could get involved, Gazprom have had a man in the break every day except Thursday.. He won a stage in the Vuelta and finished 3rd in another in breaks on days like this, the stage win was on a tough uphill climb of 11kms at 6%. He has also finished 2nd on Willunga Hill in 2007, though I'm not sure form from 10 years ago really counts! Anyway, I think he has a chance of getting in the break for Gazprom and he's worth a nibble at 80/1

Bora Hansgrohe have also been very well represented in breaks this week and they are likely to try to get someone in the break again tomorrow. Their DS said after stage 6 that they had tried to get Benedetti or Mühlberger in to the break but instead it was Postlberger got in the break and finished 3rd in the stage. I think Bora will try again tomorrow and Gregor Mühlberger might be the man for them. He's had some good results in the last two years while still very young.

He finished 2nd in the Austrian Road Race Championships last year, 2nd on a tough stage of the Tour de l'Avenir, with the likes of Sam Oomen, Marc Soler, Gianni Moscon and Laurens de Plus well behind him. He also won a superb stage and finished 2nd up a steep hill in the Oberösterreichrundfahrt on his way to overall victory and also finished 2nd on a stage in the Czech Tour behind Zdenek Stybar from a break. If he can get in the break I give him a solid chance at 66/1.. I thought he might be bigger, some of the other books might open bigger, but I'm taking 66/1 now in case.  

Bahrain Merida might send Enrico Gasparotto up the road, and even if they don't and the break is caught, he might well have a chance on this finish too given that he has won Amstel Gold twice, finished 2nd in Brabantse Pijl, 3rd in LBL and 5th in Fleche Wallone! He hasn't had a great year so far this year and was left very disappointed with his Ardennes campaign, but this sort of finish suits him a lot I think, and if it's a cagey small group sprint at the finish, there are few as wiley and clever as him at finishing off races. At 80/1, he's also worth a nibble. 

I think you also have to look at Fleche Wallone form for other options, and the best-placed finisher of this year's race, of those that are here, is Trek's Dylan Teuns. He was up there with the GC men in 20th place in Terme Lugiane, I think he will try to get in the break of the day, and like some of those above, offers another option should he stay in the pack and the break not make it. But he's very, very short.. 14/1? I think he has a big chance, but if he doesn't get in the break he will have a good chance and will probably be a similar price in play. 

Bet365 have made Adam Yates their joint 15/2 favourite with Woods, but he will only win if the break doesn't make it.. and I make it a good chance the break makes it.. so I'm not backing Yatesie this time. Most of the other GC guys are pretty short, but it's also interesting to see Wilko Kelderman so short at just 16/1... Bet365 obviously noted his return to form too, with a fine '3rd' place in the stage to Terme Lugiane behind Woods and Yates..   Bauke Mollema might like this finish too, he's 28/1 and Ben Hermans could be up there too at 28/1 also, he's a Brabantse Pijl winner after all, up that steep finish. But he finished over a minute down in Terme Lugiane, he might not be in top form at the moment. 

Tom Jelte Slagter could be another one for both the break or the group sprint, he's tempting at 40/1, but I've not seen anything from him this year yet to make me want to back him. The Astana boys might try something, Luis Leon Sanchez, Paolo Tiralongo, Jesper Hansen or Pelle Bilbao could try something, Tanel Kangert is too high up on the GC. Pelle Bilbao at 50/1 would be my pick out of that lot, his 6th in the stage to Champery in the TDR was a good result. 

I think the break will make it, so am backing a few longshots at big prices. If the break doesn't look like making it, then we can always look to backing the GC men in-play, I'd be looking at Woods and Yates to see what price they are, Yates can possibly move in to Pink if he can win by a small gap from Jungels. 

Recommendations:

0.3pts each-way on Gregor Muhlberger at 66/1 with 365

0.2pts each-way on Vincenzo Albanese at 200/1 

0.2pts each-way on Sergey Lagutin at 80/1

0.2pts each-way on Natnael Berhane at 125/1

0.2pts each-way on Pelle Bilbao at 50/1

0.2pts each-way on Enrico Gasparotto at 80/1 with Skybet

Look to back Yates or Woods in-play if it comes back together. 

Matchbets

Kelderman to beat Pinot - 2pts at evens

Mollema to beat Zakarin and Molard to beat De Plus - 3pts at 11/10

Landa to beat Van Garderen - 2pts at 4/5