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Published on Monday, 20 August 2018 12:13

Vuelta 2018 Contenders

A look at the GC favourites

Last year it looked like a formality for Chris Froome to land the Tour/Vuelta double, and his odds-on price in places reflected that fact. This year's race is a lot more open, with no clear favourite, and five riders between 11/4 and 10/1. 

Richie Porte, Vincenzo Nibali, Rigoberto Uran, Wilko Kelderman and Fabio Aru all have points to make, errors to make up for or seasons to save, after a serious of unfortunate events, and for some, just downright poor form. Can Richie Porte finally actually just finish a Grand Tour, yet alone win it? Can Fabio Aru recapture the form of 2015 that saw him win this race on the penultimate stage from Dumoulin? Can Uran bounce back from TDF disappointment and try to do better than a career-best place of 27th in the GC here? 

Can Vincenzo Nibali make up for what happened to him at the hands of over-exhuberant supporters on Alpe d'Huez? He says his form is poor though and is just here training for the World's, but is he bluffing? And Wilko Kelderman, who almost podiumed last year, can he rescue a season that was disrupted by a collarbone break in March?

Lots of questions, and that's only a few of the GC contenders, there are loads of guys waiting on the fringes who could pop up and surprise on what could be one of the most open Grand Tours in years. 

It's not the toughest of Vuelta's in recent years either, with no climbs like the Angliru to tackle. The race starts with an immediate test of the riders' form, with an 8km prologue, and although it won't see big time gaps as such, it will give some more confidence than others. And stage 2 and 4 will also show us who is climbing well or not. The Andalusian stages have a number of days for sprinters, but also a few tricky stages that could catch out some GC men. 

They then head up to Castilla Y Leon and Galicia where stage 9 to La Covatilla could also see a GC reshuffle, and when they hit Asturias and take on the finish to Camperona on stage 13 the race will really be starting to take shape. And week two ends with the brutal climb to Lagos de Cavadonga, and it could be that we have someone start to finally assert dominance ahead of the rest day. 

The TT on Stage 16 is also going to be hugely crucial, as some of those TTers slightly struggling against the climbers get a chance to fight back. They head in to the final, decisive mountain stage in Andorra towards the end of the week though, and whoever is in the lead will be just looking to defend and hang on until Saturday evening. 

Richie Porte - BMC - 11/4

Lil' Richie comes in to the race as as favourite, just like he was favourite going in to the Tour de France in 2017, and we all know how that ended. I wrote in my 2018 TDF preview just a few months back "But there are so many ifs, buts and maybes with Porte, it's really hard to know how it will go, the overwhelming feeling is that a whole load of good work and fantastic results will be undone with one bad day or an unfortunate incident... Let's hope not, I'd love to see him win it."

And unfortunately for Richie, he was undone on the Roubaix stage, before he even reached the cobbles, it was so Richie. It was pretty interesting as well to see Jim Ochowitz's reaction afterwards, he practically accused Porte of being too soft and that his shoulder wasn't that bad at all... Well, it was bad enough to take Richie out of the race, but he was back in training a few weeks later and has had a good month now to recover and get back to peak fitness. 

He hadn't really been tested properly in the Tour and in fact had helped BMC to the TTT victory on stage 3. And after an 18th and 11th place finish on the lumpy stages to Quimper and Mur de Bretagne he was sitting in 10th place on the day he crashed out. What could he have done later on in the race? Well, I'm not sure he'd have been able to shake off Thomas, like the others were unable to, but you'd have to think he'd have been as close as Dumoulin or Froome. 

Does he deserve favouritism here? Well, he should go ok in the prologue, he should go ok in stages 2 and 4's uphill finish, stage 2 is a bit like Willunga even, he might do a lot better than others on it. The likes of the Lagos de Cavadonga and Covatilla shouldn't cause him any worries really and he shouldn't lose too much time to his GC rivals in the ITT on stage 16, in fact he may even gain a fair bit of time on some. 

He has a very experienced and strong team here with him, with Vuelta veteran Nico Roche, TT powerhouse Rohan Dennis, punchy helper Dylan Teuns and climbers/powerhouses Brent Bookwalter, Joey Rosskopf, Alessandro De Marchi and Fran Ventoso. They'll have their hands full to keep him away from trouble, as he always seems to find it, but if they can get him to the final week close he could strike in the TT. If he gets to Andorra in the lead it'll be very hard to beat him, the final climbs on stages 19 and 20 will suit him perfectly. 

Simon Yates - Mitchelton Scott - 11/4

Simon Yates had traded to something like 1/5 to win the Giro by the time of his spectacular collapse on stage 19 on the Colle Delle Finestre. He had done so well up until then, he was on fire, landing three stage wins, two 2nd places (gifting a win to Chaves), a 4th, two 5ths and even 7th place in the 10km opening TT. He placed 20th on the second TT over 34kms, a minute behind Froome, but a very respectable time indeed, it would put him level with a lot of his rivals in this race's 32km TT. 

How will that outcome affect him mentally though? There are two sides to it... He should be brimful of confidence that he can take on and beat most of these guys here given his amazing performance in the Giro. There is no one like Froome here, and there are no stages really like that one on stage 19. He will love some of the short, punchy finishes like on stages 2 and 4 for example, and with the experience now of the demands of longer, harder stages he should be better prepared.

The other side is that it will play on his mind mentally - should he go hard early to try to gain time on the others like he did in the Giro? Stages 2 and 4 look like good stages for him, but will he want to go full gas, with something gnawing at the back of his mind saying don't go in to the red too early? And will it make him nervous heading in to the final week that something like that could happen to him again? Stages 15 and 20 are tough stages that could see attacks on the very first climb or two, and he could find himself struggling early like on the Finestre, and it could play on his mind. 

Matty White said that he also made a mistake with his nutrition and hydration on that stage and paid the price, that shouldn't happen again either.  They have a decent team here with him, with brother Adam the main support for him in the mountains, he too has had a very good season and should be right there with him on most of the climbs, chasing down attacks and pulling Simon in to the game. 

He can't be afraid to attack though, he needs to take his chances when they come, even early in the race, and he could go really well here.. But 11/4? No thanks, a bit short for me. 

Nairo Quintana - Movistar - 9/2

When I wrote my general preview for the race last weekend Quintana was 7/1 with Bet365 and I said he could go very well at a decent looking price... Well some of you must have lumped on, as he's now just 9/2 with 365..

It was all very strange for Movistar going in to the Tour, with their three-pronged attack that yielded a best-placed result of just 10th for Quintana, not what they were expecting. They come here again with Quintana and Valverde, with a third potential GC challenger in Richard Carapaz, so what can we expect from them this time?

Well Nairo did only finish in 10th place, 15 mins behind Thomas, so that was a major disappointment for them, but he did ride well at times and took a fine stage on the Col du Portet after attacking a long way out. He is punchy enough to make up time on some on the steep finishes, and like on the Portet he is capable of long-range attacks that could gain him 30" or more.

He's backed up by a decent team here, with Carapaz, Valverde, Amador, Bennati, Erviti and Oliveira, and he is capable of doing a half-decent time in TTs, so he should be there or thereabouts I think in the battle for the podium. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Movistar plan and execute a daring move on stage 20 where they go hard from the gun to strip rivals of support riders early on and Quintana go for a long one on the Beixalis with 40kms to go in an effort to try to steal the race, if he's within touching distance..  He needs a big win on his palmares again, or he'll start to be remembered for how his career petered out way too early, rather than for the wins he recorded. 

Alejandro Valverde - Movistar - 8/1

Mmmm.. 8/1 on Valverde? Not for me on his performance in the Tour, but based on every other race he's entered this year then you'd have to think he'd go close to a podium against this opposition. He won practically everthing he has entered this year so far, he was in spectacular form coming in to the Tour, but he never really looked like he was firing on all cylinders in France. 

Ok, maybe secretly there was animosity in the Movistar camp with that 'tri-pronged attack', as he was probably in better form than Landa or Quintana on paper, but he grinned and beared it, did what he was asked to do, maybe knowing that he would be repayed in the Vuelta.. Maybe it's why we didn't really see him bust a gut on too many occasions, even the time he helped Quintana to his stage win he was only able to help for a while and blew up pretty quickly. 

He will love a lot of these stages, with the uphill finishes and chances of reduced bunch uphill sprints, if the race is tight he could nick bonus seconds here and there and pull himself a little clear of the pack. And he really isn't bad against the clock, especially when there's something on the line, even when it was a bit of a dead rubber for him in the Tour, he still finished 19th, around a minute behind the likes of Roglic, Kwiatkowski and Zakarin. 

Apparently Valverde's season is all about the World's though, as it is one of the few things he is missing from his Palmares, and it's a course that could well suit him to a tee. Will he be pushing himself hard if in 8th or 9th place deep in the third week, with the World's on his mind?

Miguel Angel Lopez - Astana - 10/1

Now this is a bit more like my kind of bet, especially as I'm a big fan of Superman, and he delivered a podium result for us in the Giro earlier in the year at 6/1 with a superb ride that saw him come on strong in the third week and move from 61st after the opening TT to 3rd on the final day. He was very strong and was unlucky not to do better on some stages, but his achilles heel in that race were the TTs, he lost 2'31" to Froome over the two TTs. 

He shouldn't lose massive amounts of time to the chief rivals he has here for a podium spot, although the likes of Porte and Kelderman could well take a minute or so out of him in the second TT, which would put him on the back foot for the top step of the podium.

But if he shows the form that he showed in the Vuelta a Burgos on his return to racing a few weeks back, then he should make up time on his rivals on some of the mountain finishes. 

He was in great form there for only his second race back after the Giro, winning the tough stage 3 to Picon Blanco which has a very similar profile to the stage to Lago de Cavadonga on stage 15 and Balcon de Bizkaia on stage 17, and also took 2nd overall. He also took 2nd on the stage 5, which has a very similar profile to stage 19 here to Andorra. So he's had some great practice and preparation in the Vuelta a Burgos, he looks like he's ready to go here, and if he shows that sort of attacking form, the time he will lose in the TTs could well be made back, and more on the stages I mentioned above. 

Winner of the Tour de Suisse in 2016, winner of two stages in the Vuelta and 8th in the GC last year in his first Grand Tour, the boy is super fast when it goes uphill, and is not afraid to attack the old guard of the peloton. And already this year he won on Green Mountain in the Tour of Oman and finished 2nd on the GC to his team-mate Alexey Lutsenko, finished 2nd to Valverde on Jabel Hafeet and 3rd overall in Abu Dhabi and 16th in Tirreno.

He took another stage win and 3rd overall in the TotA in April, a pretty impressive start to the year, probably the most impressive set of results of any of the GC contenders here. But in doing all that he has raced over 8,000kms already this year, will that take its toll on a young, 24 year-old guy, or does it just mean he is primed and in top shape? I like his chances, I think he will be fighting for podium here, backed by a very strong-looking Astana team.  

Rigoberto Uran - EF Cannondale - 16/1

Who knows what sort of Uran we get here, he only made it as far as stage 11 in the Tour, but really his Tour was over after the 9th stage to Roubaix, when he crashed heavily and injured his arm and his leg. He tried to battle on, but after losing 26 minutes on the second stage in the Alps, he called it quits and decided to leave the race. 

You'd have thought he'd be out for quite a while with injuries that bad, but no, a week and a half later he returned in San Sebastian, and not only did he finish the race, but he finish a very impressive 6th, coming home with the chasing group that battled for 3rd place. That confused me as much as it impressed me, that was an incredibly quick recovery, so you would think that he comes here in tip-top shape still, if he has managed to maintain top fitness for this length of time, as he'd have been primed for the start of July, not late August. 

He was 40/1 for the Tour, a price that I thought looked ok, coming there on the back of a fine 2nd in the Tour of Slovenia, but he's now just 16/1.. This could turn out to be a great price, it could turn out to be a terrible price, but I'm leaning on the terrible price side.. I just don't see him taking enough time off of others anywhere to put him close to the podium, and there are too many others who are better at him at TT'ing who will pull away from him over the two TTs. 

He looks like he'll have Pierre Rolland (who had a pretty poor Tour), Daniel Moreno (who's had a pretty poor season) and Micheal Woods (who's been pretty anonymous all season, LBL aside) to help him in the mountains, but I fear he'll be on his own more often than not when push comes to shove. 

Fabio Aru - UAE Team Emirates - 18/1

Aru has looked a shadow of the rider who stormed to a sensational win here on the penultimate stage in 2015 since he joined UAE Team Emirates, I guess they don't have the same magic medicines that Vino can get hold of.. After a promising 5th in the Tour last year, he came to the Vuelta with high hopes, but was left disappointed with a 13th place finish, a disaster on the peniltimate stage to the Angliru saw him slip out of the top 10 and down to 13th. 

He finished the season well though with good rides in the Italian one-day races, and came in to this season with high hopes after his big money transfer to UAE. But it hasn't really clicked for him. 6th overall in the Tour of the Alps has been his best result, he's been well off the pace in all the other shorter stage races, generally finishing around 10th to 20th. 

And in the Giro, it just didn't work for him either, he pulled out on stage 19 after struggling for the previous two stages and slipping down to 27th place. Tests afterwards suggested it might have been a food intolerance that afflicted him, but there was also criticism of the training plan put to him by former rider turned coach Paolo Tiralongo. 

His return after the Giro saw him put in some mediocre performances to finish 10th in Poland and the Tour de Wallonie, so it doesn't look like they have found a miracle cure for him just yet. And with that clouded picture I've painted above, there is no way I want to back him at those odds, who knows what will happen.. And he will lose loads of time in the two TTs, I just can't see him podium.. But if he pulls off some great rides on stages 2 and 4, I might reconsider!

Wilko Kelderman - Sunweb - 33/1

This looks a very big price for the man who was sitting in 3rd place going in to the final mountain stage that finished on the Angliru, and eventually finished 4th overall.. He slipped from 3rd to 5th on the Angliru as both Contador and Zakarin took time off him, but he managed to take one place back the next day as Contador was caught in a split on the final sprint stage that cost him 7". 

He's a very good TT'er, he has been Dutch TT champion in the past, beating JVE and Dumoulin in the process, so he should be one of those looking forward to TTs in this race more than others. He can also climb with the best as he showed in last year's race, finishing in the top 10 on all the crucial stages, including 3rd on Sierra Nevada, 4th on Cumbre del Sol and Calar Alto and 8th on the Angliru. His 5th place in the Tour de Suisse on his return from the injury he sustained in Tirreno Adriatico also showed his climbing legs were in good shape this year. 

The problem is that crash in the Dutch road nationals at the start of June. He bent the plate that was already in his collarbone after he broke it in the Tirreno crash, and the discomfort and pain was too bad to permit him to start the Tour. So he's had to have another operation on the same shoulder, and he hasn't raced since.. What sort of condition will he be in? Really hard to tell.. He will need his A-game right from the start here with the prologue and the two tough stages on 2 and 4, if he's off the pace at all he could find himself a minute or two down before the race has even started to warm up. 

If he is in good shape though, he's definitely one to keep an eye on, he could well land a podium against this opposition, given what he did last year. I think he's one to wait an watch and see how he gets on in the first few stages and make a move then maybe. Ok, the 33/1 will probably be 16/1 or something like that if he's looking good, but I think that's still ok. 

Thibaut Pinot - Groupama FDJ - 25/1

This looks a big price too for such a quality rider, I'm not sure why he's a bigger price than the likes of Valverde or Uran.. He was going great in the Giro, sitting in 3rd after stage 19 to Bardonecchia, but then got ill and had a nightmare on stage 20, when he suffered from fever and barely limped home inside the time limit with the grupetto. He was taken to hospital and was pulled out of the race. 

Before that he had won the Tour of the Alps and since the Giro he came back to finish 3rd in the Tour of Poland, just 20" behind Kwiatkowski. He didn't finish the last time he entered in 2014, but in 2013 he was 7th overall. You might think that his TT might be something that could let him down, but he has done some very impressive TTs in the past, including winning a 7km flat TT in the Criterium International and a 15km TT in the TDS two years ago (beating Dumoulin, Jungels and Froome).

He was also French TT champion in 2016 and finished 16th in the 10km TT in the Giro this year, just 31" behind Dennis, 13" behind Simon Yates - that sort of TT'ing form will have him ahead of a lot of his rivals here.  

That all says to me he should be top 10 material, a likely top 6 and maybe even top 3 depending on how the race turns out. He doesn't have a great team with him, but I'm not sure that will be such a problem, there will be lots of guys like him who will find themselves alone near the end of stages, and he's pretty used to it. I like his chances of a surprise result at 25/1, he might lose a little time to the punchy guys on the steeper finishes, but I can see him sprinting for top 3 places on some of the not-so-steep finishes for bonus seconds and he could haul himself in to contention for a top 3. 

David De La Cruz - Team Sky - 25/1

Team Sky's shortest price runner is 25/1? What is going on...?? Sure, they have used up their big guns in the Giro and the Vuelta and have won both races, but can they complete the hat-trick with a third different rider in DDLC? The Spaniard finished 2nd on stage 3 last year and took 2nd in the GC, and was in 7th place up until the stage to Sierra Nevada when he lost a lot of time and slipped down to 11th.

He then crashed on the penultimate stage of the race and was forced to abandon with just one stage to go.. he could have finished in the top 10 possibly if he'd stayed upright, but was very unlucky to crash. This year has been pretty good for him so far too though, with a fine 3rd place just a few weeks back in Burgos. He also took a stage win in Paris Nice and Pais Vasco, and 4th overall in Pais Vasco, and was also 7th in Valenciana at the start of the year. 

He can climb, he can TT and he has the power of Team Sky behind him, including Michal Kwiatkowski who could even do well in the GC himself. Is he good enough to win this? Not sure... It's a big ask, and it may be a year or two too early for him to really give this a big shot, but I think he is capable of a top 10. 

George Bennett - LottoJumbo - 25/1

And finally, we have some people's fancy for a big ride in this Vuelta, the Kiwi has finished 11th or higher in every stage race he has entered this year so far, including 8th in the Giro and 4th in the recent Tour of Poland. He is a very good climber, and is not afraid to take it on late in a stage to try to attack for victory, but it doesn't really work out too often for him, he hasn't won at all this year. In fact, he's never actually won a stage or one-day race of any kind whatsoever in his pro career.. 

He has entered the Vuelta three times and has gone from 89th to 37th to 10th, can he improve on his 10th of two years ago? He looked very good in Poland, he was right up there on all the punchy finishes with Kwiatkowski, but his TT'ing will let him down, he's just not very good at it.. 

He's backed up by a strong team here though, with Steven Kruijswijk a hugely valuable road lieutenant for him, coming off a fine ride in the Tour. He also has the new sensation, Sepp Kuss on the team and he will be fascinating to see how he gets on. The 23 year old American won three stages and the overall at the Tour of Utah just a few weeks ago, destroying the opposition in the process.

He also has Lars Boom, Floris de Tier, Bert Jan Lindeman and Tom Leezer to help him on the punchy stages, he might be able to get up to nick bonus seconds on one or two, but I'm not sure he'll be good enough to land a podium place in this race, I think he might have to settle for around 5th to 8th place. 

Outsiders

Rather incredibly I find myself putting former winner of this race (and the Tour, and the Giro) Vincenzo Nibali in to the 'Outsiders' category, but the Italian doesn't seem to be in the shape he needs to be to win this race. He admitted himself just over a week ago that he went out for a big 'race effort' in training and was totally dead after it, and he wasn't happy with his condition at all.. Apparently it's all about preparation for the World's for him, but knowing Nibali he will come on strong in the third week and is capable of winning a stage. The question is, will a below-par Nibali still be able to stay within touching distance of his rivals, and maybe pounce in week three like we've seen him do in the past? He's a massive price at 33/1 if you think he can do it. 

Richard Carapaz is also capable of a big ride for Movistar, but you'd think his ambitions will be reigned in for Piti and Nairo, and Enric Mas could go ok too but he'll be on his own on every mountain stage, as that QSF team is built around Viviani taking stage wins. 

Emanuel Buchman and Davide Formolo could go well for Bora Hansgrohe, and at the prices, the 150/1 on Formolo looks a bit more tempting than the 50/1 on Buchmann. Buchmann hasn't done any other grand Tour this year, but has finished in the top ten of every single one of the five stage races he has entered so far this year. He finished 15th in the Tour last year, but paid for his efforts in the Vuelta, he was way off the pace and finished 65th. I think he is capable of a 15th type placing again, but a top 10 will be hard. Formolo finished 10th in the Giro, and he is capable of a similar sort of finish again here. 

Dan Martin, Ilnur Zakarin, Romain Bardet, Steven Kruijswijk, Ion Izagirre, Tao Gaoheghan Hart, Michal Kwiatkowski and Bauke Mollema could all go well too, all are capable of a top 20, maybe even top 10 finish, with TGH one that could be interesting to watch on the big stage like this, but I think they might be more interested in going stage hunting. 

Conclusion

This looks to be a pretty wide open betting heat this year, and it's hard to have confidence in Richie Porte or Simon Yates at the head of the betting, given Porte's knack of finding trouble and Yates' performance at the end of the Giro.. Valverde is a terrible price to me and Quintana at 9/2 isn't a great price anymore.. But if you shop around I see you can still get 7/1 with Betway and 6/1 in a number of other places, but I think I might wait and watch to see how he goes, I think he will go out to a bigger price along the way and could be one to gap if in touch in the final week. 

I can't have Aru or Uran I think, and Kelderman is one I want to back at that price (out to 33/1 now) and I was going to wait and see how he does up to stage 5 and maybe think about backing him before that, but at 33/1 now I have to have a nibble now too. The two I do like though are MA Lopez at 10/1 and Thibaut Pinot at 28/1, I think Lopez will have a very good race and Pinot is overpriced at 28/1, he could well podium in this. 

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Miguel Angel Lopez at 10/1 with various

0.75pts e/w on Thibaut Pinot at 28/1 with various

0.5pts e/w on Wilko Kelderman at 33/1 with 365

Overall Matchbets

Ion Izagirre to beat Louis Meintjes - 2pts at 5/4

Pelle Bilbao to beat Michael Woods - 2pts at evens

Will try to add more if 365 start allowing multiples