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Published on Thursday, 23 August 2018 12:40

Vuelta Jerseys Betting

Who's going to win the other key jerseys?

The competition for the KOM and sprinters jerseys in the Vuelta are as competitive and hard-fought as in every other Grand Tour, and equally as difficult to try to predict a winner for!

We came close last year to a big win with Trentin at 18/1 in the Points, denied by our other pick Froome at 4/1 after Froome sprinted to 11th place on the final stage. The KOM was a disappointment though, with our main pick Fraile having a disastrous race, culminating in he pulling out on stage 13 with stomach cramps and vomiting. In fact, with Fraile's withdrawal, DD were down to just three riders with over a week left, a virus affecting the whole team. 

The Vuelta does its own thing with regards to the colour of its leader's jersey - no TDF yellow for the Spaniards, instead it's a patriotic red jersey that the leader of the Tour of Spain wears and is as iconic as the Maglia Rosa of the Giro.vAnd it's not the only jersey in the Vuelta that gets a change of colour, with the King of the Mountains jersey a distinctive blue polka-dot.

They do stick with the more conventional green for the Points leader's jersey though, and a distinction for the Vuelta from other tours is the white 'Combined classification' jersey which Froome wore for the last two years, it's awarded to the rider who has scored the most points across all classifications. What they don't have, strangely, is a Young Riders' jersey like in the Tour or the Vuelta (and practically every other stage race), not sure why that is.. 

Like in the Tour, these competitions are just as hard to predict, if not harder than the overall GC winner. In the GC at least you can probably narrrow it down to about four or five guys. The KOM jersey in the Vuelta could genuinely be won by about 25 guys, and it is a guessing game as to whether one of the GC favourites wins it by accident or design, or whether a non-GC climber decides to go for it early, builds a decent lead and then gets in the breaks of the day on some of the bigger scoring stages to seal it.

Case in point was Davide Villella last year, he was something like 150/1 to win the KOM jersey, was not mentioned by a single pundit as far as I recall, yet went out and took the lead on stage 3 by being in a break, and basically took control by stage 5 when he led by 19pts. He just went on to defend it from there, getting in breaks where possible to nick points here and there, and he was helped by lots of breaks winning, splitting up the points, and no GC rider really making a go for the jersey. 

The Points jersey isn't as bad, but there is going to be a battle between puncheurs and GC riders as stages are awarded equal points, regardless of the type of finish in the Vuelta, very different to the Tour where sprint stages are awarded more points. It's quite different to last year though when there were almost no sprint stages, and as a result, sprinters in the race, there are a lot more sprints this year, and we should see the sprinters more involved in this competition. 

{tab Points Jersey}

Points Jersey

The Points competition in the Vuelta often isn't really a sprinters competition as such, as the mountainous nature of the race means most of the big sprinters give it a skip, and it's looking the same this year with very few sprinters choosing to put up with the hills and heat of Spain. 

The Points Jersey in the Vuelta differs from the Tour in the way that points are awarded to the winners of stages. In the Tour they award more points to sprint stages than to mountain stages, but in the Vuelta the same amount of points are awarded to each stage winner, so you therefore get more of the GC contenders in the running for the points jersey.

Also, maybe significantly, 25 points are also awarded to the winner of the time trial on stage 16, but seeing as Dennis will probably win that, it shouldn't really affect the competition outcome. 

This way of awarding the same points to mountain stages as sprints was to the detriment of Matteo Trentin last year and John Dekenkolb in 2012 when they both won no fewer than four stages, yet didn't win the points competition.

Sprinters can win it though, as Felline showed in 2016 (although he showed that he is more an all-rounder/puncheur than out-and-out sprinter), Degenkolb also showed it's possible in 2013 when he won it by 23 points from Valverde, with Contador, Froome and Rodriguez behind him. Mark Cavendish also won it in 2010.

And this year's route looks like it could really favour the sprinters more than it has done for about the last 5 years, with lots of sprint stages and no one of the likes of Froome here who could take a number of the mountain stages, the GC men and breakers will split points up between them on the non-sprint stages.

The sprint stages start on stage 3 possibly, but they will have to get over a Cat 1 along the way, and stage 5 could also be a sprint, but there's a Cat 2 to get over near the finish too. Stage 6 is the first proper flat stage, stages 7 and 8 could be sprints too but have uphill finishes, stages 10 and 12 should be sprints too, but they then have to wait until stage 18 for their next chance, with a lot of tough stages in between.

And of course there's one final chance on the last stage in Madrid. That's nine possible sprint stages, of which we might lose one or two to a break making it, but still, that's 7 likely sprint stages, which leans the favouritism towards the pure sprinters 

The Points Competition Contenders 

Elia Viviani has opened the 5/4 favourite for this jersey and you can see why - that team that is with him is built to win as many sprint stages as possible, with Laurens de Plus, Michael Morkov, Fabio Sabatini and Pieter Sabatini all part of a superb leadout that should dominate a lot of these finishes. And not only that, Viviani is in pretty decent form this year too, with 14 wins this season, more than any other sprinter. 

He took four stages in the Giro this year, along with the points jersey and has carried on winning races since then, winning the Italian road race, and just a few weeks ago the Euroeyes Classics from Demare, Kristoff, Degenkolb and Trentin. He looks tailor-made for a number of these stages, he might be able to hang in there on some of the hillier ones and on the flat stages he doesn't really have many rivals of his calibre here, like in the Giro, and he ran away with the points competition there.

It's hard to see anyone beating him really, it might take an accident or illness that takes him out of the race to stop him. He's very short at 5/4, but Sagan is around 4/7 for the Points in the Tour and that still looks like great value at the end of every Tour. 

Second favourite is Alejandro Valverde at 9/2, and you can see him being involved all through this year's race, from uphill sprint finishes to punchy climbs and summit finishes. He will pick up points all along the route, and he knows what it takes to win this competition, having won it three times, finished 2nd four times and 3rd three times. He will be working for Nairo at times, but I think he will have freedom to go for a number of stages and probably the points competition too. 

He will be there on every sprint finish you'd think, even on some of the hilly ones where some of the other sprinters might struggle, and he will be sprinting for points on the mountain stages when the likes of Viviani are in the autobus. He's short too of course at 9/2, but I think he's a pretty solid shout for the top 3, and should Viviani falter for whatever reasons he could take the jersey one more time. 

Matteo Trentin is the new European Champion, showing the kind of power and skills in Glasgow that is sure to see him take a stage or two at least in this race again. He was superb last year landing four stages, and came within a hair's breath of winning the jersey. He is sure to still be bitter about that and what better way to put things to right than to take the jersey this year. He's sort of a cross between Viviani and Valverde, in that he can sprint with the best on a good day, particularly on the uphill sprints, but he can also get over a lot of the hills that other sprinters struggle on, as we saw last year. 

The team is going to be focusing on the Yates brothers, but with Mezgec, Howson, Haig, Edmonson and Albasini he'll be well looked after in the sprints and could well have one of the stronger leadouts here too along with Viviani. I'm not sure he'll win as many stages as last year though with Viviani, Valverde and Sagan here, but he will go close again. 

Simon Yates is the first of the GC men in the betting at 13/2 and that is probably because they expect him to do something like he did in the Giro and skip away from the others on some of the punchy uphill finishes, and enough of those could see him rack up a bunch of points like Froome and Nibali last year who sandwiched Trentin. He could start as early as stages 2 and 4 and there are plenty of stages where he should be in the top 5 in the mountains, so he should be a regular point grabber. Will it be enough to win the jersey though? Well, he's no Froome, but he could go close. 

Peter Sagan at 8/1 for a points jersey with a bunch of uphill sprint finishes? Sounds big doesn't it, but Sagan was a broken man at the end of the Tour and it really hit him on the tough circuit of the European Championships when he was tailed off with some 85kms still to go. I am not sure he will be starting this Vuelta in tip-top shape and it might take him a week or so to get up to speed, if he does indeed get up to speed. He is capable of winning a number of stages if he gets going, but maybe we should wait and see how he's getting on before making a move on him. 

Richie Porte is 14/1 for it, and I think he's just too inconsistent to be on the shortlist, he might win a stage or two, he might do well in the TT to score some points there, but I think he will not score enough to top 3 in this to make him worth backing.

Giacomo Nizzolo is 20/1, and is one that I have backed before in the Giro to success, but he's not done the Vuelta at all ever before. He's had a very interrupted season with lots of crashes and DNFs in races, but he has started to look in good form in the last month, with 3rd in the Ride Surrey, a 3rd, 4th, 6th and 8th in Poland and 6th just last weekend in the EuroEyes Classic.

Although Trek have Bauke Mollema as a possible GC candidate, the squad looks set up to go on the attack, and to go for sprint wins with Nizzolo, ably supported by Gianluca Brambilla, Fabio Felline, Keil Reijnen, Markel Irizar and Matthias Brandle..

Nizzolo is another who will get over the hills on the lumpy stages, and has a habit of getting in breaks too on the days that breaks make it, or at least take the intermediate sprints, he is a keen attacker of intermediate sprints, so will pick up lots of points along the way, and should land lots of top tens on the punchy finishes and sprint finishes. He has done a lot of race kilometres this year (over 7,300), but the amount of DNFs on his results sheet puts me off him a little, but as this is his only Grand Tour of 2018, he should be motivated to finish this one, especially if he's in contention for the jersey. 

And that's about it for contenders I think, Kwiatkowski at 40/1 and M A Lopez at 66/1 are two who could have great Vueltas and could score lots of points, but probably not enough. I think Valverde could be a good e/w bet at 9/2, I think he will be top 3 at worst, and could even win it, but Viviani is the likely winner.. If we can get a price closer to 2/1 on Betfair maybe, or a stage or two in if it hasn't quite fired for him on the hilly finishes, then he should be worth going in on. Nizzolo at the price e/w could provide us with a little excitement like Trentin last year though too. 

1pt e/w on Giacomo Nizzolo at 20/1 with Betfair

1.5pts e/w on Alejandro Valverde at 9/2

{tab KOM Jersey}

King of the Mountains Betting Preview

The KOM competition in the Vuelta is similar to the KOM in the Tour de France in that the leader wears a polka-dot jersey, but it differs in that it's blue polka-dots, not red. It hasn't always been that way though - ever since it was first introduced in 1935 it was actually a green jersey the leader wore, until it was changed to an orange jersey in 2006 and then in 2010 it became a blue polka-dot jersey.

Spaniards have won the jersey on 49 times out of 71, with José Luis Laguia winning it a record 5 times. Omar Fraile added to that record again in 2016, taking the jersey for the second year running. As is often the case in the Vuelta it was the breakaway riders who led the way, with Davide Villella taking the lead early and hanging on to it for the rest of the race. Lopez and Froome came at him late in the race, picking up lots of points on the tougher, GC stages, but after those two it was all breakaway riders again behind. 

There are also differences in the categories, in that the Vuelta has four categories compared to five in the Tour, Cat 1,2, 3 and Especiale climbs, but when a stage finishes on the top of the the highest point in the race, the first over the top wins the Cima Alberto Fernández for which 5 more points are awarded, or 20pts in total. This year it's on the top of the Coll de la Rabassa on stage 19, which is over 2,000m, a far cry from the highest climb last year which hit over 2,500m.

The full points breakdown are above to the right, they are the exact same as last year. So the winner generally scores a lot less than say the winner of the KOM in the TDF which has much higher scores. 

There are 25 Cat 3 climbs, 7 Cat 2 climbs, 16 Cat 1 climbs (5 summit finishes), 3 Especiale climbs (3 summit finishes) and the one Cima Alberta climb. There are three more climbs than last year, but interestingly, there are five more Cat 1s and six fewer Cat 2s, meaning there are more points on offer this year than last. Stage two kicks things off with a Cat 2 climb right at the start, and two more easy Cat 3 points available for the break too, so someone who fancies getting in breaks can take a nice easy lead in the KOM Competition. 

Stage 3 has a Cat 1 and Cat 3, so again, the break should hoover up those points, and if the same rider has gotten away on both days to go for the points, they could already have racked up over 20pts by the time they hit stage 4, and we could have a Villella situation all over again. Stage 4 has a Cat 1 out on the course that the break will take, but another Cat 1 at the finish that a GC man should take. Stage 5 has a 3 and a 2, but we might see a different break rider this time take the 3 and the peloton should fight out the 2. 

Stage 9 is the next one really that the KOM breakaway hopefuls should be targeting, with a Cat 1 after just 50kms, and a 2 and a 3 by 100kms. The break should take them, and again, if one rider does a Villella, he could well rack up a lot of points, then roll in to the finish, where the peloton should fight out the ESP finish points. Stage 11 is a day for the break with four Cat 3s and a Cat 2, but we might see a different sort of break today and someone else could get in on the act. 

Stage 13 looks like a Thomas de Gendt sort of stage, with a Cat 3 early on to get a strong, large group away, then a Cat 1 after 105kms, and another Cat 1 at the finish that the break might well fight out. Stages 14 and 15 could be two of the most important stages for the jersey though. A rider who has been scoring well up to now could pull away on these two stages, as they could both be breakaway stages.

Stage 14 sees a cat 2 after 60kms, and then three Cat 1s and a Cat 3 in the last 90kms means there are a total of 38pts on offer on this day. Then the next day Stage 15 sees them go over a Cat 3 early, then two Cat 1s and an Esp climb at the finish, but as it's the Cima Alberto Fernandez there are an extra 5pts for it, meaning another 43pts are up for grabs. Take a lead at this point and you may not be caught if you just go on a few forrays for the rest of the race to nick a few easy points here and there. Like on stage 17 which has a bunch of easy Cat 3s along the way, and finishes with a Cat 1 the GC men should take. 

Stage 19 has only the summit finish on the Coll De La Rabassa, which is a Cat 1, and then stage 20 is the short, but nasty stage that sees them go over a Cat 3, Cat 2, Three Cat 1s and an Esp climb in just 97kms. So there are lots of points available this year, lots of which should go to a breakaway rider. I think the GC men will share the points about for the summit finishes, and on stage 20 they should take the majority of the points if they make it a tough GC day from the start. 

So that all to me says that a breakaway sort of rider has a good chance again of winning the jersey this year, but they need to time their assaults right, bag a bunch of points on some stages and then rest on others (with maybe a teammate stealing points for them). 

And what about the GC men? Well there are lots of points available on the Esp finishes, and the Cima Alberto Fernandez offers 20pts on it's own, so we could have a strong GC climber fighting it out for the jersey too if they take a number of important stage wins, or even top 3 places. Of course, someone like Yates or Quintana have an early mishap and loses time and decides to go after the jersey instead. 

The Contenders 

I say it every time - the KOM is an almost impossible competition to predict, unless you have inside information from a team meeting that says rider X is going to be going all out for the jersey. There are just so many variables, so many different ways that it can be won, so many factors like whether the GC men race for stages every day or they let the breakaway riders just fight amongst themselves. 

The bookies have priced it up as a GC competition this year, which surprised me a little, with M A Lopez the 8/1 favourite, but the fact that he's 8/1 shows just how unsure they are and how open this market is, Fraile was 3/1 favourite this time last year.. Yes, Lopez could go really well.. And as I have picked him for the GC, there is every chance that if he is doing well in the GC, it's because of how well he is doing on the key summit finishes. He might well win 2 or 3 stages, he could win on the Cima Fernandez climb at the Lagos de Cavadongas.. He finished 2nd last year after starting slowly, and I think he'll be close once again. 

Simon Yates could do ok at 14/1, but I'm not really interested in any of the other GC men for the KOM competition, I don't think Porte, Valverde or Quintana will feature often enough to build up enough points. 

So on to the breakaway men, and the standout one to me, based on my analysis above of the stages and what it might take to win it, is Thomas de Gendt. He loves a spotty jersey, but had a poor time of it in the Tour, he just didn't seem himself. He is the kind of guy I can see timing his attacks and breaks perfectly to take maximum points damage when he does go, and then recover in between.

He might well lose time on the first uphill stage on stage 2 so that he can go on the attack soon after and try to build an early lead, and then go for the important stages to forge clear. 4th in this in 2012, 5th in 2017, he has come close a few times. He's won KOM competitions in the Tour de Romandie, Catalunya, Paris-Nice and Tour Down. I think he was 14/1 with 365 opened first, I missed that, but the 9/1 on him will definitely still have some takers.

But, I'm worried about him.. he just didn't seem himself this year at the Tour and just couldn't get his break game going. He came nowhere near taking a stage win, and barely got in any breaks, he was seen near the back more often than the front. If he starts like that here he will be on the back foot and I'd be very worried about my bet. So instead, I think he's one to wait and watch with to see how he does in the opening stages and then reassess. 

Omar Fraile is once again one of the favourites to take jersey, 2nd in the betting at 12/1.. And seeing as he is a former dual winner of this competition, you can understand why. He was 3/1 fav last year but had a disaster with his DD team, he'll be hoping for more luck this year, and has a score to settle too I believe. 

He had a successful Tour from the point of view that he took that great stage win (and a great result for us at 22/1!), but it wasn't a great Tour at all from the point of view of getting in more breaks and going for the KOM points. In fact, there were times when he could have fought out the KOM points but didn't.. But what if it was all part of a bigger game plan, training for the Vuelta? It's the first time he's done two GTs in one season, normally he used to come to the Vuelta on the back of a run in the Vuelta a Burgos.

Will that mean he's tired and not able to go hard in breaks? Or will it mean that the three weeks of good training, with the occassional big efforts will make him primed and ready to go after the prize here? Lopez will need minding of course, but they have Cataldo, Bilbao, Hirt, Villella and Zeits to look after him, maybe Fraile can be the one to get up the road so Astana don't have to chase and Lopez can attack late on to bridge too him for some help? It's very possible, but I think I'll just dip the toe in for now, as I don't want to miss the 12/1, but might go in again if we see he's looking up for it.

Rafal Majka was our saviour with a last gasp points grab to take the 3rd spot and land the each-way money for the Tour's KOM competition, can he do it again? He also is a master at getting in the right breaks and racking up the points on important days, and he's also the kind of guy that if he gets a lead in the KOM can hang in their with the GC men on some of the GC days to possibly score some points, such as on stage 20 if it all kicks off. 

The team seems to be built around Mani Buchmann for the GC, but I would think Majka will have free reign to do his own thing. The only worry with him would be that he might be tired after the Tour, but he seemed to finish pretty strong in the Tour, taking 11th and 5th in the final two mountain stages. 

Sepp Kuss could be anything in this race for LottoJumbo, he was sensational in Utah, but this is a whole different league altogether and he might be just asked to pace himself in his first Grand Tour. Davide Villella was 150/1 last year, he's 40/1 this year, can he do it again? Well he's done absolutely nothing this year to suggest he can feature in this race, but then again, he had done absolutely nothing last year either before he got in some lucky breaks and decided to keep going. I can't see lightning striking twice with him. 

Alexandre Geniez could be one though that could get involved, he's a decent price at 50/1, he finished 4th in this competition two years ago.. He mainly got the points he did from being in a few breaks, and in particular taking 10pts early on with his victory on the uphill finish to stage 3, something he could well repeat this year.

AG2R don't really have a GC man, they look like a team that are just going to be on the attack all the time, and I wouldn't be surprised to see two or even three of them in many of the big breaks that go, the likes of Gallopin, Gougeard and Cherel joining Geniez on the attack. If he can get in some early breaks and take some early points we could see them work for him. At 50/1 he's worth a nibble.  I backed him last year at 33/1, I'm giving him another go this year as his price is so big. 

And finally, the local Spanish teams will surely be trying to get guys up the road early in this race knowing the jersey will be up for grabs on stage 2, so expect plenty of interest from the Burgos-BH, Euskadi-Murias and especially the Caja Rural guys. There are lots of decent climbers in all three squads, but Caja probably hold the strongest cards with the likes of Luis Guillermo Mas (6th in the KOM in 2014), youngsters Alex Arunburu and Jonathan Lastra and old boy Sergio Pardilla.

Pardilla is the most interesting to me though as he is wiley and experienced and comes here on the back of a decent showing in the Vuelta a Burgos where he finished 6th overall and in the KOM competition. I think we could see him on the attack early in the race to get early publicity for Caja Rural, and he could keep picking up points along the way, while then focusing on some of the bigger KOM break days later in the race too. He's good at an uphill sprint, he can beat other guys to the big points. 

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Recommendations:

1.5pts each-way on Miguel Angel Lopez at 8/1 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts each-way on Alexander Geniez at 50/1 with Ladbrokes 

0.2pts each-way on Sergio Pardilla at 66/1 with Will Hill

0.5pts each-way on Omar Fraile at 12/1 with Ladbrokes

Matchbets

Davide Formolo to beat Bauke Mollema - 2pts at evens

Simon Yates to beat Fabio Aru - 5.5pts at 4/11 (free money I think)

Sergio Pardilla to beat Louis Meintjes - 3pts at 4/6

Will add more if Bet365 start allowing multiples