Details

Published on Tuesday, 11 September 2018 22:06

Vuelta Stage 17

Getxo – Balcón de Bizkaia 

Wed 12th Sept, 166.4km 

Another lumpy stage, another summit finish. A strange route that takes them all over the place, in from the coast and back out again on a U-turn and back down to another loop which takes them some way up the final climb first time around.

It's a great looking stage for the break, it starts with a climb inside the first 10kms and is up and down all day with some short flattish runs in between, and a tough finish where the GC favourites might decide to let the break go and just fight it out amongst themselves later on. They're also running out of breakaway stages, with really only one tough hilly stage left in the race. 

But also, the GC rivals are running out of opportunities to take time and time bonuses, so will the likes of Astana want to pull back the break to give Lopez a chance of attacking for the stage win? Will Movistar want to chase to give Valverde or Quintana a chance to attack? Or maybe FDJ will help the chase in order to set Pinot up again 

Stage 16 Review 

Rohan Dennis is on another planet compared to these guys, that was a demolition job. 50" to 2nd placed rider Joey Rosskopf, then only 1" between 2nd to 4th. It was an unbelieveable ride from Rosskopf, don't think many saw that coming, I think he was 125/1. Steven Kruijswijk was also incredible, he actually led at the first time check, the only rider to come close to Dennis out on the course.

He ended up 4th, losing out on a podium spot by just 1", but he wasn't the only one to lose out by 1", our bet on Kwiatkowski lost out by the same tiny margin, and DDLC beat Kelderman by the same margin. It was seriously gutting to lose out on both by such a small margin, all the other bets won, which would have given us a 14.3pt winning day, instead we had to suffer a loss of 3.8pts, SK and Mas saving us with the last double. I did add a bet on twitter in-play, Oliveira 4th to 9th at 5/6, hopefully some of you picked up on that one. 

There were some big winners and losers in the GC, Yates put in an incredible performance to finish 13th, he gained 42" on Quintana and 51" on Lopez. SK was a big winner too, moving up to 3rd on the GC from 5th, and Valverde's 15th place keeps him in 2nd place, with a 19" advantage over SK and 23" over Quintana. Mas was good too, he's moved up a place, whereas Lopez has dropped 2 places to 6th after a really poor TT. 

So it looks like it's Yates' to lose now, that's a nice advantage he's got.. but this race isn't over. Tomorrow is a tough stage and they have two monsters to come on Friday and Saturday where he is going to be under full attack from the Colombians.. that is, if they can muster an attack, they've been pretty anaemic up until now..  

The Route

A route that winds and zig-zags and loops all over the place in a sort of 'cock and balls' shape with lots of little lumps and bumps along the way. They start in Getxo, come in off the coast, reach Bilbao where the intermediate sprint is located, but they turn left and head off on a loop that takes in the Alto de la Arboleda (7kms at 5.4%), back to the coast, then back along the same road and through Bilbao where the intermediate sprint is contested this time after 48.7kms. 

They then head north for 35kms back to the coast again to go over the Cat 3 Alto de San Juan de Gaztelugatxe (4.4kms at 6.3%) after 85kms, with stunning sea views from the top, then they turn back south for 20kms and arrive at the foot of the final climb to Alto del Balcon de Bizkai. The climb from the bottom is about 20kms long in total but the first time they pass over it the Cat 2 climb is 6.4kms at 4.9%, as they turn off it before getting to the summit. 

They descend down and head on to another loop to the north-east of the finish, going up and over the Alto de Sta Eufemia with 21kms to go (3.8kms at 6.1%) which has some steep ramps near the bottom, then around and on to the Alto de Gonzegraine (5.3kms at 4%) which they crest with just 10kms to go. They descend off it, turn left and back on to the same road they came down earlier and on to the foot of the final climb again. 

This time they go straight to the top of the Alto del Balcon de Bizkaia, and this time the climb is 7.4kms at an average of 9.7%. But it's a climb that starts 'easy' with the first 3.2kms at 6 to 7%, then they turn left and it gets a lot steeper. They are actually on the road to the summit of Monte Oiz, but the route doesn’t go all the way to the top, stopping at 925m of the 1,026m total.

As they get closer to the top it gets steeper and harder, the road is merely a narrow corrugated concrete track with steep ramps that go up to almost 24% - from about 4kms to go to about 2kms to go the 2kms in between averages a cruel 16%.. The last 3.9kms average 11%, with a section that eases back to around 7.5%, but the last 500m average 12% in a really horrible finish to a very tough climb. 

The final 5kms are going to be spectacular - just check out these photos of the final climb.. the cracked road, the steep bends, the narrow, narrow road, the wide open spaces, the windwills.. It's going to be spectacular!!

Contenders and Favourites

Four Cat 3s and one Cat 2 before they hit the final climb, that's 17pts up for grabs in the oh-so-tight KOM fight, with a sick Luis Angel Maté having given up an almost unassailable lead over the last few days, with De Gendt, King and Mollema just 7, 8 and 14pts behind him now.. Even Mollema could be in the jersey by the end of the day if he is the only one to get in the break and takes max points on each of the climbs out on the course.

So expect all of the above, maybe with the exception of Maté if he's still sick, to be in the break. Bauke Mollema is riding really well and seems to have little problem making the break when he wants to, same with King, and De Gendt looks to have a target sign firmly on the back of Maté. Of those three, I think Mollema is the most likely to be able to go on and win the stage, Thomas De Gendt the least likely, he might do his job for the points out on the course and roll up the final climb, saving his legs for another go on Friday or Saturday. He did an incredible TT today though, he's clearly still got lots of power in the legs.

I think we can also expect Rafal Majka to be there, he is in most breaks on stages like this, and he'll be hurting after Rodriguez passed him on the final climb to La Camperona, he was not impressed. KOM is probably out of reach now, but he could well still take a stage, but has only three possible chances left. With the GC battle still probably going to be undecided by the time we hit Andorra, this could be the last chance for a break win.

Michal Kwiatkowski, Nico Roche, Dylan Teuns and Allessandro de Marchi are three more who seem to prefer being up the road than in the bunch at the moment, but I don't think the final climb suits any of them, I can see them crumble on it. Franco Pellizotti rode very well to finish 18th on Lagos, and he's been in breaks, but not only might he be asked to do a job for Izagirre to try to keep him top 10, but also that final climb is too tough for him.

Right behind him in 19th and 20th place were two of my go-to guys though, and as I said, I want to keep backing them in case one of these days they make it in the break and are in with a chance hitting a final climb. Herman Pernsteiner was 19th, a superb performance by the youngster, and Sander Armée was 20th, showing again that he rides in to form in a three week Tour.. If they come to the final climb in a break, and climb like they did on Lagos, then they could well ride away from their companions.

Sergio Henao and Oscar Rodriguez were next home, they too like a day in the break recently and we saw how well Rodriguez finished off the stage on La Camperona. With similar gradients of 15-17% in the closing kilometres we could see him take off again. He was probably 500/1 or more the day he won, he's only 50/1 tomomrrow for it, but maybe he's worth a saver in case he pulls off another miracle ride.

David de la Cruz is now over 12 mins down, and Sky can't be happy with their Vuelta, one of their least successful in many a year. Maybe he'll get a bit of freedom to go in the break now? He is a good strong rouleur for out on the course and on the lower slopes for the first 3kms or so, if he has someone like Henao or Kwiato in the break with him they can cause some damage on the lower slopes to give them a better chance once it becomes mano-a-mano on the steeper slopes later on.

Mikel Bizkarra, Igor Anton, and Gorka Izagirre are near home roads, Maxime Monfort, Ivan Garcia Acosta and José Herrada are others who are likely to be trying to get in the break, maybe even someone like Richie Porte.. Gianluca Brambilla has been riding really well in the last few stages, I think he'll fancy it tomorrow too and would have the punch to kick on and win it, if he's ridden himself in to form in the last two weeks. And even if he doesn't make the break and rides with the GC men, if his legs are good he could fight out the finish with them. 

But will they have managed to hold off the GC men? Well the last two mountain stages saw the break being reeled in and a GC battle, and that was mainly down to Astana doing a lot of work, and Omar Fraile in particular.

He has been incredibly strong, but hasn't been left off the leash whatsoever, maybe if Lopez screws it up tomorrow he'll get a chance to have a go later in the week in Andorra. But for now, I think he'll be at the front of proceedings again, driving it over the three last climbs in the last 50kms or so.

Mitchelton-Scott will not want to bring back the break, they'd he happy for the break to gobble up the bonus seconds, so the only help they might get is probably from Movistar.. but will they do their old trick of just trying to settle for a podium spot with Valverde?  I'm not sure, I think they will want to try to get Quintana up there too, they'd maybe settle for 2nd and 3rd and the Team Classification and the Green Jersey. But there's no guarantee that Valverde is going to stay in the top 3 after the tough stages to come, so they'll have to push for a Quintana move I think. 

So I think they will get a hand from Movistar, and maybe Bahrain and FDJ too, maybe Izagirre and Pinot will try to take advantage of the top 6 on the GC looking at each other again. But will Lopez and Quintana continue their phoney war? Will Yates and Quintana continue fighting with each other as to who will go after Lopez when he attacks? Because he will, you just know it.

And if he attacks and they've reeled in the break, then he'll probably win the stage, he has looked the punchiest, along with Yates, but if he's got the jump on Yates, and Yates marks the Movistar guys then he might hold them off. I don't think Yates will attack, he can afford to just mark and wait, he won't want to put himself too much in to the red with Andorra to come, knowing what happened him after putting so much in to the TT in the Giro. 

The three other riders who can take advantage of the standoff between the top GC guys are SK, Enric Mas and Thibaut Pinot. But Pinot and SK might well struggle on the really steep parts, but if it hasn't gone ballistic then they might be able to stay with them.. SK will just keep plugging away and if he does try an attack and they stall and argue behind, he could solo to the finish.. Same with Thibaut Pinot, he could well repeat his heroics from Sunday. 

But Enric Mas is one to watch too though, he was really strong in the latter stages of the Lagos de Cavadonga climb and he put in a brilliant TT today to finish 6th, ahead of Oliveira and Campanaerts. He is now 5th on the GC, just 15" behind Quintana, and the young Spaniard will be inspired I think to really go for it on this climb and to try to win the stage and move up the GC. A win by 29" and the 10 bonus seconds could put him on the podium. At 25/1, he offers good value I think. 

But it's going to be close I think between break and GC men fighting it out for the stage, but I just about shade it towards the break being caught just before the climb proper starts. And then it's going to be fun. Lopez and Quintana have to attack, Valverde will chase and attack and try to tire out Yates, Kruijswijk, Pinot and Izagirre will just try to hang in there through the steep kilometre and then they might have a chance in the last 2kms.. 

So I'm going to have a few break candidates just in case, and a bet on Lopez and Mas, I think they will be right up there challenging for the stage, Lopez has to win really I think or it might be too late for him, and Mas has great form. 

Recommendations -

0.5pts e/w on Enric Mas at 25/1 with 365

1pt win on M A Lopez at 3/1 on Betfair or 11/4 with 365 if you have to use them

0.3pts win on Herman Pernsteiner at 100/1

0.2pts win on Sander Armée at 200/1

0.2pts win on Oscar Rodriguez at 50/1

0.3pts e/w on Gianluca Brambilla at 40/1 with Will Hill

Matchbets

Zakarin to beat Porte and Pernsteiner to beat Pellizotti - 2pts at 5/4

Kelderman to beat Aru - 3pts at 4/6

Ion Izagirre to beat Buchmann - 2pts at evens