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Published on Monday, 03 September 2018 07:50

Vuelta Stage  10

Salamanca – Fermoselle 

Tuesday 4th Sept, 172.5kms 

Rest day over and we're back to another boring flat stage as they head towards the west coast of Spain. It should end in a sprint finish in Fermoselle, but being the day after the rest day, after that mountain stage, who knows.. 

There is the possibility the break might be let go today, GC riders sometimes fancy a day to break their legs back in after a rest day, especially after such a tough stage on Sunday. There are some substantial gaps now down the pack, so plenty of guys will have the leeway to get away to try to win the stage.

And if it is the case that the sprinters teams do decide that they want to reel them in before the finish, there's the v-shaped dip to contend with 34kms from home that takes them over the Alto de Fermoselle, a Cat 3 climb that averages 5.3% for 4.9kms, enough to shake out quite a few of the weaker sprinters. 

Stage 9 Review

Well annoyingly, the break made it today and 175/1 Ben King took a stunning win to notch up two wins in the two mountain top finishes so far in this race. It was an amazing ride by the American again, he attacked a long way out, I think it was with still 18kms or so to go, and it looked like he might have gone way too soon with the likes of Mollema and Theuns in the break. But inexplicably, by the time Mollema decided to take off after him King had over 90" lead on them. So we ended up with a TT head to head on the final climb, and Mollema quickly took a minute out of him and it looked a foregone conclusion that he would catch King and win the stage. 

But somehow, Mollema managed to find a way to finish 2nd again, much to the annoyance of his backers, but they had plenty opportunity to trade out, he was sub 1.5 for a long time on that final climb. Made me feel slightly better for not having picked him as I thought 22/1 was way too short, but then again, 2nd e/w would have been better than the blank from my predictions for ths stage. 

Annoyingly though, Lopez would probably have won the stage if the peloton hadn't given the break a ten minute lead, if they'd kept it to 6 or 7 minutes they'd have been fighting out the stage win and Lopez was the fastest at the finish. Nairo was very impressive, he cruised home and has now gone 7/4 favourite to win overall, with Lopez and Yates now at 3/1. 

My two other picks did extremely well and would have been 4th and 5th on the day if they'd caught the break. Ion Izagirre did brilliant and is now just 14/1 to win overall, he will be feared in the TT too. There were also impressive rides by Kelderman and Uran who got a little gap on Yates who struggled to go with Kelderman when he surged. It was a bit of a surprise really to see the stage, and GC favourite Yates get dropped on the first real mountain test, it doesn't bode well, but then again, maybe he's trying to just pace himself this time so as to not blow up in the third week.

Kelderman is looking very impressive, it's just so bloody annoying he lost 1'44" the other day, he'd be close to the jersey by now otherwise, and would be close to being favourite. The finish suited Kelderman's power, he just rode away from the other guys who were on the limit, but Quintana, Lopez and Uran were quickly after him. If Kelderman keeps riding like that though he will make up time on some of those around him in the coming weeks. 

Luis Angel Maté is relentless in his pursuit of KOM points, he's similar to Villella last year going in the break day after day.. He's odds on for it now, with Mollema his closest rival, but to be honest, I don't think it will be a target of Mollema's, I think he'll keep looking to win a stage. Valverde is odds on now for the points competition, which is nice for our 9/2 bets, and Movistar are still odds on for the team prize, although they are still behind LottoJumbo and slightly longer in price than before the race started at 5/6.

Thibaut Pinit was a disappointment to lose time like he did today, I thought he'd have been all over that stage, and Dan Martin was another who disappeared, but I guess, as he's not fighting for GC, and the stage win was gone, there was no point wasting energy that he will need on a day that it is falling right for him. As I expected really, Kwiatkowski faded, and lost over 2 minutes to the other GC men, I think that's him done now.

And it could be that DDLC is possibly out of the running too, he only lost 48", but now sits nearly a minute and a half behind Yates, and that could just get worse on tougher climbs than this. We might actually see Sky without a rider in the top 10 at the end of this Vuelta, which is pretty amazing given their recent domination of GTs. 

I think they will press on now though whereas Kuss could fall away and Kruijswijk might start to feel the Tour in his legs soon.. Bennett was one of the disappointments today, he lost 22" to Lopez and Quintana, so I fancy Quintana, Valverde and Carapaz to start to make a difference and pull away. So I'm having another 2pts at 5/6. 

The Route

Over 140kms of nothing worth watching, a fast descent in to a Cat 3 climb and a pull up for 4.9kms at 5.3%. Once over that they turn sharp right at Fermoselle and head north-east to the finish for a pretty straight, flat and uncomplicated finish, it's dead straight from 5kms to 800m to go, then a little kink right, and a straight run to the line. 

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Contenders and Favourites

So another sprint stage that turns out to not really be a normal sprint stage? The Vuelta route book continues to decieve and confuse, this stage is described as flat, but we might not see all the sprinters at the finish with the tricky hill that comes less than 30kms from the finish. It is a tough little climb of almost 5kms at over 5.3%, a very similar climb to what they faced on stage 7 on the run to Pozo Alcon. That day we saw a number of the sprinters get dropped on the climb, but some others made it, only to be dropped on the steep slopes through the village of Hinojares.  

Sagan and Valverde will be there, Viviani might be touch and go, he made it over the climb on stage 7, only to be dropped in the run-in. Bouhanni, Van Poppel, Nizzolo and Trentin were all dropped, Gibbons almost made it, he was one of the first sprinters home but came home very disappointed on his own just 19" behind Gallopin. 

So here we go again, trying to figure out whether we'll see a full sprint, a reduced sprint, a late break, or the break of the day making it.. Let's face it, if we get to a normal sprint, Elia Viviani will probably win.. I avoided him last time out, but I didn't quite expect QSF to get it so wrong. Michael Morkov made a bit of a mess of it, he was leading out Viviani, but he got separated from Sabatini and Laurens de Plus. Sabatini kept powering on and actually caused a gap to appear between the front 8 or so and Morkov and Viviani, and Sabatini seemed oblivious to it and kept going, actually just leading out Trentin with Bouhanni in tow. 

You can be sure that QSF will not make that sort of mistake again, and they should have most of their leadout men come through to the finish, if Viviani can get over the hill, they'll be by his side coming in to the last 5kms and should smash it. If he gets a clear run, he could win by 2-3 bike lengths. 

Can Nacer Bouhanni repeat his heroics of stage 6? Well, he certainly showed some speed to beat DVP and Trentin, and he'll have renewed confidence, and not only that, the team will have renewed confidence in him and will work harder than ever for him. He played it beautifully on stage 6, he sat in, he had the speed to make the front group and then popped out at the perfect moment to surge to the line. And he had the power to hang on too, he didn't fade much, which is just as well as Viviani came flying in the dying strides. 

Giacomo Nizzolo was unlucky in that sprint, as he hitched his cart to the wrong horse by getting on Viviani's wheel and he ended up 11th on the day. Not so long ago Nizzolo would have been beating Viviani in a stage like this, he used to be one of the fastest sprinters out there. He's not got that speed any more, but he also in the past has tended to get better as stage races go on, so as we're half way through the race, he might find himself getting faster as others are starting to get tired. He hasn't a leadout to speak about really, but if he can get on Bouhanni or Viviani's wheel, he has a good chance of a top 3 finish. 

DVP came close on 6, he looked at one point like he might get past Bouhanni, but just couldn't find that last bit of speed to be able to do it. It was the best sprint from him in a while though and he followed that with an excellent 3rd on Stage 8 on the tough uphill sprint won by Valverde. Those results will fill him with confidence that he can do better, but he'll really have to raise his game to beat Viviani, or it might take a bit of luck for him, unfortunately this is one of the most straight-forward finishes of the race. I would be surprised if LottoJumbo threw a lot of men behind his cause though, I think they will be more worried about saving energy and looking after Bennett and SK after they faltered a little on Sunday. 

Simone Consonni hasn't been far off either, but looks a 4th to 9th kind of bet in-play, same with Ivan Garcia Cortina, he showed in stage 8 that he might be much more effective in a tough uphill sprint, if he can hold back a little bit longer and not blow his chances with 50m still to go. Ryan Gibbons, Tosh Van der Sande, Tom van Asbroeck, Eduard Prades and Jon Aberasturi will also be close, but maybe not close enough for a top 3. Aberasturi seems to be getting over his knee injury and is getting closer, I fancy him to beat Van der Sande tomorrow. 

So that's if we get a normal sprint.. and I reckon that's about a 60% chance of happening, with a reduced sprint caused by the hill about 30% chance and the break has about a 10% chance on a stage like this. The 10% comes from the fact that some might fancy another rest day to recover from a tough and hot opening week.

The weather is going to be hot again, around 27° but something also to bear in mind, they will have a tail-wind all the way home from the final climb, of around 6mph. It's not much, but a tail-wind will ensure a very fast finish, and if there is a split it will aid the front of the peloton to keep the chasers at bay if they keep it going full gas at the front, there will be plenty firepower at the front willing to work to not let the sprinters back in and possibly a lack of cooperation with QSF if Viv is dropped, the other teams will let the chasing to them rather than bring Viviani back. 

So there's a 30% chance that Bora, Movistar and maybe Mitchelton-Scott, or possibly Bahrain-Merida and Cannondale will try to blow things up on the final climb and get rid of Viviani. If they go really hard, I think there is a chance that they'll drop him. He has been climbing well though, and hung in there for the same sort of climb on stage 8, but we are now two more days past that and Viviani could be starting to tire. And if they don't drop him, I think it will take a lot of the sting out of Viv's legs and of his team-mates that could hinder his chances in the sprint. So he's a no-bet for me at just 8/13.

So that opens the door for Peter Sagan, who has so far finished 2nd twice and 3rd once, but in the one flat sprint where Viviani cocked things up, he got caught out too on the wrong wheels and finished 9th. He was philosophical about it afterwards saying these things happen, but you'd have to think he'd have been in the middle of DVP, Bouhanni and Trentin in that sprint with a chance of a top 3 again. If he and his team can blow it up, he's a strong candidate for the win. And even if they don't drop Viviani he's a strong shout for a top 3, and with a bit of luck, he could land the win element of the bet too. 

Alejandro Valverde and Movistar will look to blow it up too to give him a shot in the sprint, and maybe not just for the stage win, but to start to pull him away from Viviani in the race for the Green Jersey. If Valverde can take a lot of points here and Viviani doesn't score, then he could be 1/2 or shorter after this stage for it, he could be 30-40pts clear of Viviani with lots more opportunities for him to score than Viviani has. But if it comes to a sprint on a flat finish like this he won't beat Sagan, or maybe the likes of Trentin or Nizzolo if they're there too.

And if there is a split, maybe Ryan Gibbons can go close, at 50/1 I'm happy to have little bets on him for these stages, I think he's due a decent result sooner or later and Dim Data must be buzzing at the moment with two stage wins for Ben King. 

Recommendations:

1.5pts e/w on Peter Sagan at 5/1

0.25pts e/w on Ryan Gibbons at 50/1

Matchbets

Gibbons to beat Van Asbroeck and Nizzolo to beat Consonni - 2pts at 11/10

DVP to beat Bouhanni - 2pts at evens

Cortina to beat Sarreau 2.2pts at 8/11

Valverde to beat Kwiatkowski and Aberasturi to beat TVDS - 2pts at 1.6/1