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Published on Thursday, 30 August 2018 21:20

Vuelta Stage 7

Puerto Lumbreras – Pozo Alcón

Fri 30th August, 182kms 

A rolling course that takes them inland and in to the heat of rural Andalusia. It's not too difficult a stage, but the temperature could cause problems, we could see the thermometer hit over 30 degress on this stage. 

It's a rolling stage that will take its toll on the riders despite it not being a very long or tough day in the saddle, the pace should be high and the heat will take its toll too. The break should be reeled in on time I think to set up a furious last 20kms or so, with the charge to the bottom of the final Cat 3, the short, punchy ramp before the intermediate and the uphill drag to the line.

It's an interesting place to put the intermediate sprint, as the break should be caught I think with just 8.7kms to go, but with it being a finish where GC men could make and lose time, will any of them be interested in going for the 3 bonus seconds?

It looks like a day that the sprinters will have their eye on again, but there is also a chance that not all of them will make it it's quite a lumpy finish to the stage and some teams know that and will really be looking to push on. 

Stage 6 Review

A good news, bad news sort of day eh. A daft break that included Richie Porte and Luis Angel Maté wasting more energy over two Cat 3 climbs gets reeled in, and just before we all expected the winds to cause problems and echelons we get a stupid crash because of an unguarded barrier in the middle of the road. The race split, only 44 riders made the first split, with Thibaut Pinot caught behind. Then, Wilko Kelderman punctures right when everyone was going absolutely full gas. So in a moment, two of my GC riders, who had been doing perfectly fine up until now, lost over a minute and a half. 

But the good news - Got it absolutely spot on with Nacer - he was in the right place at the right time, he shadowed the leadout men and was in prime position hitting the last 300m. He kicked hard, got a bit of a gap and held off the closing DVP and a flying Elia Viviani. I recommended him at 9/1, he was freely available at 11/1 as soon as I published the preview, so I would guess most of you got that. I managed to get another 1.8pts matched on Betfair at 18, so a very good day. Shame the splits ruined the matchbets, Sarreau and Gibbons got caught out, but we'll take the 9.75pts profit (if you took the 11/1).

I was delighted for Nacer, he has a bad reputation of course, but I think a lot of it is sensationalism and bullshit journalism of the clickbait kind. The rumours of him hitting the car and arguing with his DS were shot down by both he and the DS, looks like a terrible interpretation of the communique  by the AS. It's been a while coming, but they were confident he could do it, and I just had a feeling it would click with him sooner or later. 

Van Poppel came very close to taking the win, but interestingly, Sagan was only 9th, Lopez and Fraile even managed to beat him in the sprint. Consonni, Trentin and Cortina were all up there too, Trentin tried complaining about Bouhanni, but he had no case to do that, Bouhanni did nothing wrong. 

The Route

After a number of days on the coast they start to move inland, starting from Puerto Lumbreras and generally heading north-west all day. It's mostly pretty flat on the profile, but with 100kms gone there's a short 4km Cat 3 to get over. Then it's downhill for the next 50kms as they pass through the finish town of Pozo Alcón and down to Cuevas del Campo before doubling back and starting to loop back to the finish.

With 18kms to go they start on the Cat 3 Alto de Ceal, which is just 4.5kms long at an average of 5.4%. There's a little descent, then an uncategorised bump you can't really see on the map before the intermediate sprint, it's tough at 7.8% for 1.7kms, it could shake out some sprinters.

The last 5kms are all uphill, but quite gentle as they head back up towards Pozo Alcon, this time from the westerly side, 5kms to 1km to go averages about 2.9%, then it flattens a little for about 600m just after the flamme rouge, before an uphill sprint to the line at 3.6%. There is a roundabout they have to go the long way around with about 600m to go, then a sharp left with less than 200m to go, so positioning will be crucial in that last kilometre, you'll need to be able to explode out of that last kilometre if in the sprint. 

Contenders and Favourites

I think the break will be reeled in before the finish today, I think they will keep them on a short leash and in fact I wouldn't be surprised if they were caught with about 40kms to go to set up a battle over the lumpy last 20kms. There are a number of teams who will have their eyes on this finish and know that if they go hard enough they will get rid of Viviani, Bouhanni and Van Poppel, if not more of the sprinters. The intermediate with 8.7kms to go might interest some to come out and try to grab 3 bonus seconds, after all margins could be very tight at the end of this race.

A fully fit Peter Sagan would have to be top of the list for a finish like this, not only for his ability in an uphill sprint, but also his race positioning and skills to have him in the right place coming through the two turns in the last kilometre. Add in the fact that he has a super-strong team here with him to lead him through the closing stages, you would think he should go close. But 9th today in that sprint might suggest he isn't yet firing on all cylinders. 

It will all depend then on who he is up against. Elia Viviani has proven he is capable of getting over some lumps, but there are some sharp pinches in the closing 20kms here and other teams will be going full gas to get rid of him. He got lost in the sprint today, even though he had loads of his team with him, was very disappointing if you were one of those who piled in to him at 1/2 and shorter. I am going to say I don't think he makes it, not even with his powerful team around him, in fact they might look to give someone else a shot as a plan B.

Laurens de Plus showed in stage 2 that he is not afraid to take it on in an uphill finish, and had the strength to hold on for 3rd after Valverde and Kwiat came past him. He could go from maybe a kilometre or so out, to try to catch out the other sprinters who might well be light of support and they could hesitate. He's 300/1, why not.. 

365 started with Viviani as favourite at 10/1, he's now 28/1, they've woken up a bit. Alejandro Valverde is the man that is being backed though, to repeat his win of stage 2, on this uphill finish. He opened at 14/1, instantly went 12s, then 11s and is now 13/2. He had an easy day today, in fact he's pretty much had an easy day since Sunday, but you know, I'm not sure that the finish is as difficult as some think, Valverde might not have it all his own way. 

And of course, where you have Valverde, you have Kwiatkowski, he's been backed in to 8/1. Ditto for him like Valverde, I'm not sure it's hard enough to have him as one of the top 2 favourites. And he was looking a little tired to me on stage 4, will he want to pull himself back in to the Red Jersey potentially so soon after giving it away? Dan Martin has inexplicably been backed in to 14/1, I just don't understand that one at all. I know he tweeted that his legs are getting better and that the hard stage 5 was just what he needed to open the legs, but he's not going to go in the break, he's not going to be able to attack away on such an easy hill and he won't beat the likes of Valverde, Sagan, Kwiat and the rest in a sprint. 

Of the other sprinters, I think Matteo Trentin should still be there though, he is able to handle hills like these, and will be a lot more at home on an uphill finish like this than he has been on the flatter finishes up to now. He came close today, but just didn't have the flat speed of Bouhanni and DVP. It's not too dissimilar to the finish of stage 13 which he won last year from Moscon, Kragh-Anderson, Schwarzmann, Van Asbroeck and Nibali. If he can come here with the faster sprinters stripped out, it could be a penalty kick for him, he'd be a strong favourite. There was also an uphill finish in stage 4, which he won, and again, Van Asbroeck was close in 3rd.

It's interesting looking at those results to see Tom Van Asbroeck fighting it out for stage wins with Trentin last year, as he's not really done anything since, and never came close to even the top 25, let alone winning a stage in the Giro earlier this year. But he did start to show a little glimpse of form in the BBT a few weeks back, finishing 12th, 10th and 8th and was 10th in stage 3 here. Maybe with the faster guys stripped out, TVA can get in the mix again? Worth a shot at 125/1.

The EFEFDPBC team will be buzzing after taking their first World Tour win of the year with Simon Clarke, maybe they'll all get behind him to try to strip out the sprinters, Uran, Formolo, Clarke, Moreno, Rolland and Woods all drilling it up the final climbs to ditch Viviani and Bouhanni.. It's very possible, they did go to the front and cause some damage today and he'd have a chance then with Clarke possibly leading him out. 

Also not far off in those stages last year was Michael Schwarzmann, but he doesn't seem to have the same form at all this year as he had last year. If the team are behind Sagan, he has no chance, if Sagan flounders he might be given the nod to go for it. Giacomo Nizzolo is another who could be up there and another who could like an uphill sprint. He was disappointing to not make the top 3 today, only finishing down in 11th, you'd have expected more of him against opposition like this. 

Gorka Izagirre showed in the first stage at Paris Nice how good he is at an uphill finish, and one potential scenario is that we get Vincenzo Nibali take to the front late on again like he did today and drill it, with Padun and Pernsteiner and Gorka behind them, and he takes it up in the last 200m.. But I'd want about 40/1 and not 22/1.. Jay McCarthy is also 22/1 and he could have a chance with this uphill finish if Sagan isn't involved, but he's been too disappointing to me up until now.

Dylan Teuns is also a potential candidate for this uphill sprint, but it's who will be up there to lead him out and look after him might be the problem, they are a little light on support men for him. He did alright in some of the uphill finishes in Poland recently, but he's been off the pace on the uphill finishes here when he was expected to be involved. 

But the way Bet365 have priced it up suggests that absolutely anything could happen again - there are break men like Omar Fraile and Alessandro De Marchi high up in the betting, sprinters aren't far off, and puncheurs and GC men are scattered all around the top of the betting too. It's an absolute lottery again, breakers could include Tony Gallopin, Thomas de Gendt, Valerio Conti, etc etc. But I'm not sure they'll hang on.

It's a fiendishly difficult stage to figure out, but I'm going to throw a few darts and see if we hit with one, Trentin is too big to ignore at 33/1 now, I backed him at 18/1 when they first opened, but have had some more now at 33/1 as it's too big. There's also the chance he could infiltrate the break of the day like he did when he won stage 10 in the Vuelta last year. 

Recommendations:

0.75pts e/w on Matteo Trentin at 33/1

0.3pts e/w on Tom Van Asbroeck at 125/1

0.3pts e/w on Ryan Gibbons at 125/1

0.2pts win on Laurens de Plus at 300/1

Matchbets

Trentin to beat Garcia Cortina - 3pts at 5/6

Sagan to beat Bouhanni and Conti to beat Brambilla - 2pts at 1.4/1