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Published on Wednesday, 29 August 2018 20:04

Vuelta Stage 6

Huércal-Overa – San Javier

Thurs 30th Aug, 153kms 

A dull stage on paper if there ever was one, a trip along the coast heading north to San Javier for the day, with a couple of bumps along the way, but it should finish in a sprint finish at the end of the day.

That is, unless the wind has something to say about things - they spend about 125kms on the coast and it looks like they will have an easterly wind of around 13mph which will be a head/crosswind for most of the day. This could be most significant in the last 30kms as they skirt close to the coast where the wind is going to be whipping in from, and there's almost no protection along the route to protect them from the wind.

They change direction a few times too, so teams will be planning where exactly to strike and will be prepared for a scream in their ear. This could see echelons and splits and riders will have to be on full alert to avoid getting caught out. GC teams will be looking to maybe gain some time on more inattentive rivals and QSF will probably be wanting to make the sprint even more of a formality than it already might be. 

There are two climbs to get over during the stage, but they are nothing really, just 4kms long, so unless the break is let go and stay away again then we are looking at another sprint finish.  

Stage 5 Review

It took a long time for the break to go today, as rider after rider tried getting up the road. Eventually a large group of 25 got away and it included European Champion Matteo Trentin and our pick Bauke Mollema. Annoyingly the rider we've backed before, De Marchi was also there and looking strong as he rode away from the rest with over 70kms to go. Mollema and Clarke attacked though from the break and shot up to De Marchi, bridging a 1 minute gap in almost no time, and suddenly the three were a minute and a half ahead as they hit the final Cat 2 climb. 

Then, just when he was looking the strongest and looking like he might be able to ride away from the other two, disaster for our man. Mollema punctured and was quickly 30" behind the front two and it looked like game over.. but he bridged very quickly, reinforcing my belief that he was the strongest climber and could well have ridden away from the other two if he'd have gone full gas on a steeper part. 

They hung on to the finish, and inevitably, being the better sprinter, Clarke took the stage win. I hope some of you backed Mollema e/w, I'm annoyed I didn't put e/w on the blog, you know I normally do (and did on Felline for some reason..). But I'm really glad I stayed small and steered clear of the matchbets, the race panned out exactly as I expected and you had situations like Kwiat rolling home in front of Valverde and sprinters all over the place. It was nice to have a big-priced runner in with a chance though for us, gave us a bit of excitement for a few hours, hopefully we can land a big-priced winner like that soon. 

The Route

A 27km run to the coast, followed by 127kms along the coast, and a likely sprint finish in San Javier Mar Menor. After 52kms there is a little Cat 3 bump for 4.7kms, and after 99kms there's another 4km Cat 3 bump, from there it's pretty much flat for the next 50kms as they north to the sprint finish. Wind is forecast to come in off the sea at speeds of around 12-13mph in the afternoon, enough to possibly cause some splits if the likes of QSF want to try to blow things up. 

Contenders and Favourites

A very fast start to the day with a downhill run for the first 28kms or so, bar a little bump with 20kms gone.. There could be another big battle to get in the break again, knowing how reluctant any team other than QSF are going to be to chase. Even so, I think the breaks have been let have their fun for a few days now and Viviani will be keen to get another win on the board and to pull away from Valverde in the points competition before Valverde really comes in to his territory. 

Simply put, if it does come down to a sprint, then Elia Viviani wins - and 365 agree, they have opened with him at a risable 1/2. But you can see why they are not taking any chances, best leadout, fastest sprinter, only an incident of some kind will stop him racking up win no. 2. There's that one roundabout they go the long way around with 800m to go but you just know that QSF wil be first through it with Sabatini and Morkov leading the way, Viviani in tow.

And even if they aren't and Viviani is after losing his leadout, you just know that he will be surfing wheels in behind ready to pounce, he almost prefers to ride that way anyway. It was obvious that they were told not to go in the break today, and to save their energy for tomorrow, they know they will be asked to chase tomorrow as there is a stage win for the taking. Viviani made it clear too in the pre-race interviews that they couldn't see it being a sprint today, it was definitely going to be one tomorrow. 

The only rivals he seems to have are Nacer Bouhanni and Giacomo Nizzolo but neither of them look like they really have the top speed to come past him, so far anyway. But as I said in yesterday's preview, we might not have seen the best of either of them so far and I wouldn't be surprised to see it click for Bouhanni one of these days. He's had a rough year, he's fallen out of favour with the team management, but how better to try to encourage someone else to come sign him than to win a stage at the Vuelta.

He finished plum last today, 8 mins behind the second last rider, looks like he just rolled around the course in his own time and saved as much energy as possible. With DD and EFEFDPBC winning their first World Tour races of the year in the last two days, the pressure is on Cofidis to win a stage in a Grand Tour, a rare occurance. His chain did jump in the last sprint, and he finished just behind the front 3.. at 9/1, he's maybe worth a shot to see if it finally falls right for him. 

Giacomo Nizzolo was closest in the last sprint, he marked Viviani well, but as I said yesterday, coming from behind Viviani just isn't going to work, Viviani is just too fast. He is getting faster and faster though, his form is starting to come and if Viviani's sprint is disrupted for whatever reason, Nizzolo could be the one to take advantage. He's almost tempting at 5/1 to have an e/w bet to nothing, as he's a very strong shout to be in the top 3. 

Peter Sagan is the 5/1 third favourite, but seeing him struggle early in the stage again today it's hard to have much confidence in him. Yes, he navigated his way in to 3rd place in the last sprint, but with other sprinters starting to find their legs it may be that he gets a bit crowded out this time and some others could come past him. I'd rather be on Nizzolo at 5/1 than Sagan right now anyway. 

Danny Van Poppel is one who could get up to challenge the first three, we know he can win races, and big ones, having taken a stage in the Vuelta three years ago. It's a tricky one for LottoJumbo as so much of the team are made up of climbers and riders here to protect the climbers, but if they can get Leezer, Lindeman and a recovering Boom in front of him hitting the last 2kms, they might be the ones first through that last roundabout and in pole position to take up the sprint with 300m to go. 

And the rest are just battling for the final podium spot/ top 10 places.. Consonni has been close, Gibbons impressed me today by finishing in the main peloton, I think the only sprinter to do that, he might be worth looking out for on another lumpy day where the sprinters might struggle on a late climb.. Van Asbroeck, Trentin - they are all a long way behind Viviani in terms of team support and speed and Trentin had a very tough day in the saddle today, I'm not sure he'll be doing much of note tomorrow. I'm sure if some of these guys had the leadout Viviani has they'd be winning stages here too. But as it is, they don't so have to fight for scraps. 

As for break candidates? Well, it could be any of about 50-60 guys again, a total lottery. I don't see the climber types wasting their energy on a stage like this for two Cat 3s, so it is going to be down to the rouleur types who will have to push out big watts all day to keep the peloton at bay. QSF might send someone like De Plus up the road, and that way the other teams will be the ones forced to do the early chasing. But as I said, I don't think the break makes it, I think it would be a major shock if the did. 

The winds could cause a bit of fun late on in the stage, but it's most likely we'll see a pretty normal sprint and Viviani will win. But there's no point really in backing him at 1/2, anything could go wrong and you're done for. Instead, I'm going to take a chance on Bouhanni, apparently he and the DS were given a penalty for sticky bottles, so they must be getting on a bit better again and the DS is keen to keep him enthused and in the game. I'll also be looking at finishing places bets in-play, watch out for them.

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Nacer Bouhanni at 9/1 with 365

Matchbets

Sarreau to beat Trentin - 2pts at 6/5

Viviani to beat Sagan, Walscheid to beat Soto and Gibbons to beat Van Asbroeck - 2pts on the treble at 2/1