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Published on Monday, 27 August 2018 22:04

Vuelta Stage 4

Vélez-Málaga – S. de la Alfaguara

Tues 28th August, 162kms 

A stage that starts out innocent enough with a nice, pleasant, gentle run along the coast from Malaga for 42kms, before they turn inland and face a Cat 1 climb that takes them to over 1300m in 30kms. 

It's going to be a fast and furious start to the stage for the opening 40kms, and we may not see the break go until they actually start the climb proper, there could be a huge battle to get in the break, as it could make it - once over the top of the second hill after the categorised climb there's only 80kms to go, of which about 60kms are downhill. A strong break that builds up a 6 or 7 min lead on the first climb could hold off the pack and have a 2-3 min lead on that final climb and that might be enough to hang on. 

Stage 3 Review

A pretty boring stage by all accounts, I missed all bar the last 5kms. The break went, it contained some guys who seem to be looking to contend for the KOM prize, and some local Spanish hopefuls.. Luis Angel Maté has certainly set his stall out with regards the KOM jersey, he collected more points today and leads with 24pts now. He said after yesterday's stage that it was his objective in this race to win the KOM jersey, and that part one was succesful.. I think he can call part 2 successful too, and he could pull off a Villella and wear it all the way to Madrid. 

The race went the way I was hoping it wouldn't, far too easy and sedate, so that the sprinters got an easy ride. Having said that, it was still fast and crazy enough in the closing kilometres for many, many guys to be dropped, some coming home more than ten minutes behind the winner. Dan Martin lost another 4 minutes, Richie Porte another 5 minutes. 

And so it came to the inevitable sprint, Michael Morkov did a brilliant job for Viviani and he was untouchable, justifying 7/4 favouritism.. I suppose you could say that that's three stages in a row now where the winner was staring us right in the face.. But our man Nizzolo flew the flag well for us, coming home in 2nd place to land the e/w, Consonni wasn't far off in 5th, TVA was in 10th. Valverde beat Kwiat by one place if you took that matchbet on, Consonni won his match for us, but TVDS was terribly disappointing, coming home almost last, Restrepo only finished in 113th and VDS still couldn't beat him... 

The Route

They start out on the coast in the popular tourist hotspot of Malaga and roll gently along the coast for 42kms until they hit Almunecar and start to turn inland. Barely 8kms after leaving the coast they start climbing and hit the first Cat 1 of the day, the Alto de la Cabra Montes, a nasty climb that averages just 5.9% but is a long climb at 15.7kms. We could see a lot of the stragglers out the door early here and a large groupetto form.

The road keeps climbing after the KOM though, reaching 1330m, gaining an extra 270m over the next 14.3kms, before descending for more or less the next 50kms or so, bar a little bump up around half way down. The road starts to climb again with about 22kms left in the stage, passing through the intermediate sprint point with just 18kms left. 

The final climb to the Puerto de Alfacar isn't too difficult a summit finish though, it is long at 12.4kms, but it averages just 5.4%. There are parts in the middle it hits around 11%, but it's generally pretty steady and in fact eases back to around 3% with 2kms to go before a final ramp to the last 100m of around 6%, before turning right and flattening out for the last 100m. 

Contenders and Favourites

So as I said at the start above, there is a good chance I think of the break making it today. As we've seen in recent years in the Vuelta, teams seem happy to let breaks go quite often and there are a number of elements in play in today's stage that could help the break's chances. The fast early start will tire out some guys early on, the 30km first climb of the day will help them build up a big lead, and once over the top, it's only 80kms to the finish, most of which is downhill. 

Lotto Soudal could have a few candidates for today, Thomas de Gendt is a prime candidate for this sort of stage, and he's now a handy 16 mins down on GC to be given the freedom to attack. He is powerful enough for this start, he's powerful enough to drive it on, and to finish it off.. He tried on stage 2, he'll be trying again tomorrow I'm pretty sure. 

Alessandro De Marchi is another who is over 16 mins down, he's either suffering possibly from the same sort of illness like Porte is, or he's happy to lose time to be let go on the attack. He'll like this kind of stage too, he's got a good chance of getting away early on and has the climbing skills to win at the finish too. 

Luis Angel Maté will probably looking for more KOM points on that early Cat 1, and maybe we'll see Pierre Rolland also going with him, it looks like Rolland is up for the jersey too. But neither of them are very good in a finish.. Steve Cummings has been saying that this year has been pretty much a disaster so far for him, he's done nothing of note. He really needs to win a stage in this Vuelta to save his season, and maybe he'll need to try to strike early in the race while his legs are still good.

Another who is over 16 minutes down and has been active is Alexis Gougeard of AG2R, he was on the attack in stage 2 but it came to nothing, he might try again and he'll like this finish too. José Goncalves for Katusha gives us two hopes, he could get in the break that makes it and would have a good chance, but also he could be involved in an uphill sprint at the end of the stage. 

And there are loads more of course who could be involved in the break, the Spanish teams will want to be involved and there might be other guys with their eyes on the KOM that fancy the 10pts on offer early on. But I think it's about 70-30 they'll be caught, and if so, it's hard to look past Alejandro Valverde again on a finish like this, he was just so strong and timed his move to perfection in the finish of stage 2, I really can't see many who will be able to challenge him on a finish like this again. 3/1 actually looks ok to me, I think he should be about 6/4 given how he won the last stage, even the mighty Kwiat had no answer for him. 

After that, Kwiat of course is a danger, he was superb on uphill finishes in Poland, but he just needs to time his move a bit better, he went too soon for me in stage 2, he should have just stayed on Valverde's wheel a bit longer and pounced later. It will be crucial that he sits and sits and waits for that last 100m I think, if he does that and Valverde has tryed kicking with 200m or more to go, he might just be able to come around him. 

Laurens de Plus came third on stage two, but that was thanks to a late attack, I don't think we'll see him up there again, but Wilko Kelderman was next best GC man home and he too should be close to the front. I am not sure he'll be able to beat Kwiat or Bala though, he'll not be far off. George Bennett was also pretty close in 5th, but never looked like he would get any closer, and Miguel Angel Lopez lost 15" on the stage 2 finish, maybe he's not fully match-fit yet.. 

Thibaut Pinot won't be far off, he will like this sort of finish and will see an opportunity maybe of putting time in to some of his rivals, but again, hard to see him outsprint Valverde, or Kwiat if he is there. Simon Yates was a bit off the pace in stage 2 too, and this finish isn't steep enough for him, he'll have to attack with about 3kms to go and hope to hang on. Dan Martin has been suffering from the heat and has lost time on both road stages so far, I think he'll be waiting for more suitable stages in the higher mountains. 

So - two things.. I think the break has a good chance so I'm going to throw a few darts at the likely suspects who have shown good legs so far, and if it comes to a GC finish, we have to have Valverde as a saver. I'd like to back Gougeard, but not a single one of the bookies have priced him up, I have no idea why.. If someone does, I'll add him as long as he's bigger than 50/1.

Recommendations:

2pts win on Alejandro Valverde at 3/1 on Betfair (I'd take the 11/4 with 365 too)

0.5pts e/w on Thomas de Gendt at 50/1 (now 33/1, but I'd take that too) with Bet365

0.3pts e/w on Alessandro de Marchi at 25/1 with WillHill

Will add more in play possibly.. 

Matchbets

Valverde to beat Quintana - 4pts at 1/4 with WillHill

Bennett to beat Quintana - 3.5pts at 4/7 with WH

Roche to beat Herrada - 3pts at 7/10 with WH

Pinot to beat Yates - 2.2pts at 10/11 with WH

Kelderman to beat Kruijswijk - 3pts at 8/15 with WH